The U.

U.

S House of Representatives on Tuesday approved a Pentagon budget bill that also expands sanctions against companies building the German Russian Nord Stream two pipeline.

斯眾議院週二準許了一項五角大樓預算法案，該法案還擴大了對德國俄羅斯北溪二管道建設公司的制裁。

Now the bill passed with an overwhelming majority of both Democrats and Republicans far exceeding the two thirds super majority that would be needed to override a presidential veto.

現在，該法案以民主黨和共和黨的壓倒性多數通過，遠遠超過了推翻總統否決所需的三分之二超級多數。

The bill must now go to the U.

該法案現在必須提交給美國。

S Senate, where it is expected to easily pants the U.

S參議院，在那裡，它預計將輕鬆褲子U。

S opposition to the pipeline goes back to President Obama's second term president Trump's surprisingly agreed with this foreign policy position that he inherited from the Obama administration.

S對管道的反對可以追溯到奧巴馬總統的第二個任期總統特朗普的竟然同意他從奧巴馬政府繼承的這一外交政策立場。

Now work on the pipeline stopped a year ago under pressure from the US but it's due to restart any day now.

現在，在美國的壓力下，管道的工程在一年前就停止了，但現在隨時會重啟。

Germany has rejected US calls for a stop just as it has rejected any notion of sanctions Yet.

德國拒絕了美國要求停止的呼籲，就像它拒絕任何制裁的概念一樣 Yet。

You listen, get you know what our position is on Nord Stream two and possible sanctions way reject them because we do not consider extra territorial sanctions to be compatible with international law punishment, and I think this has not changed needs getting done.

你聽著，讓你知道我們對北溪二號和可能的制裁方式的立場是什麼，拒絕他們，因為我們不認為額外的領土製裁符合國際法的懲罰，我認為這一點沒有改變需要得到解決。

My next guest says that Russia is trying to sell Nord Stream two as a done deal, which it is not.

我的下一位嘉賓說，俄羅斯想把北溪二號賣給別人，說成是一筆交易，其實不然。

I'm happy to welcome Benjamin Schmidt to the show.

我很高興歡迎本傑明-施密特來到節目現場。

Benjamin served at the U.

本傑明曾在U。

S State Department as a European energy security adviser.

美國國務院擔任歐洲能源安全顧問。

He's now a research fellow at Harvard University.

他現在是哈佛大學的研究員。

Benjamin is good to have you back on the program before we talk about what's happening in Washington and in Congress.

本傑明很高興你能回到節目中來 在我們談論華盛頓和國會發生的事情之前。

Tell me what you mean about Russia trying to convince the world that there is no stopping of Nord Stream two.

告訴我你的意思，俄羅斯想讓世界相信北溪二號不會停止。

Hi, Brent.

嗨，布倫特。

It's always a pleasure to be on Deutsche Avella.

在德國愛維拉，我總是很高興。

Great to be back.

很高興能回來

Well, let's start with the situation at hand right now.

好吧，先說說現在的情況吧。

Today I just wrote a piece for the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington this morning.

今天上午我剛剛為華盛頓的歐洲政策分析中心寫了一篇文章。

Um, and I'm looking at this situation as Gazprom, reprising its December 2019 dis info playbook in order to make North Stream two look unstoppable with the intent of dissuading passage of these targeted congressional sanctions.

嗯，我看這個情況是俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司，重現2019年12月的dis information玩法，以使北溪二號看起來不可阻擋，目的是勸阻國會通過這些針對性的制裁。

After all, if the project can't be stopped, why even bother passing them?

畢竟，如果項目停不下來，為什麼還要通過他們呢？

Well, that's not true.

不是這樣的

We've seen gas prominent allies over the past few weeks state in the media that the project is moving along apace.

在過去的幾周裡，我們在媒體上看到天然氣知名盟友表示，該項目正在快速推進。

It's cos air fully committed in spite of sanctions.

這是cos air不顧制裁全力以赴。

But just 24 hours after some of those headlines came out, the biggest certify rare for the pipeline D N v.

但就在其中的一部分頭條新聞出來後的24小時，最大的證明罕見的管道D N訴。

G L.

G L.

A.

A.

Major, uh, technical provider that would be needed for this project to be completed left the project.

主要的，呃，技術供應商，將需要 這個項目完成離開項目。

And this was followed by announcement last week that project construction would start in German waters on December 5th last Saturday.

而這之後，上週又宣佈項目建設將於上週六12月5日在德國海域啟動。

But there's a little detail there.

但那裡有一個小細節。

This is only 2.6 kilometers of the pipeline, and it's at a shallow depth that's not even targeted by the N D A sanctions.

這條管道只有2.6公里，而且深度很淺，根本不是N D A制裁的目標。

So with all of that, Russian vessels, including Fortuna and Academic Chair ski, which have been reported on, have headed back to a T least in terms of the chair ski to Kaliningrad in Russia.

是以，在所有這些情況下，俄羅斯的船隻，包括 "福星 "號和 "學術椅滑雪 "號，已經報道過，已經回到一個T至少在俄羅斯加里寧格勒的椅子滑雪方面。

So are you saying then that that's all propaganda, that it's not true that construction is restarting well, One of the biggest stories was that the charity, the economic Twersky would be the main pipe player in that vessel, never even made it to German waters.

那麼你的意思是說，那都是宣傳，不是真的，施工重啟得很好，其中最大的一個故事是，慈善機構，經濟特維斯基將是該船的主要管手，甚至從未到過德國水域。

It sat in the Polish exclusive economic zone over the weekend.

週末，它坐在波蘭專屬經濟區。

Well, a lot of media reported on this, and then it headed back to Russia just just yesterday.

嗯，很多媒體都報道了這件事，然後就在昨天，它又回到了俄羅斯。

Now, the Fortuna is making some motion this morning and the outside of the port of the smart Germany.

現在，"福星 "號今早有所動靜，智能德國港外。

But it hasn't really started this thing Spy plane that was supposed to start several days ago.

但它並沒有真正啟動這個本該在幾天前啟動的事情間諜機。

Now, let me ask you about the U.

現在，讓我問你關於U。

S.

S.

Opposition to this project.

反對這個項目。

We know it dates back to the Obama administration.

我們知道它可以追溯到奧巴馬政府。

Then Vice President Joe Biden.

時任副總統喬-拜登。

He was vocal with his opposition.

他極力反對。

He is now about to become president.

他現在即將成為總統。

Congress stands with him.

國會與他站在一起。

Do you think all of this this monolith of opposition?

你認為這一切這塊石頭的反對嗎？

Is it going to be enough to ensure that this pipeline never goes online?

難道要保證這條管道永遠不上線嗎？

I think it is.

我想是的

I mean, I think this project My my colleague Tom O Donnell spoke on Euronews this weekend and said the project was dead.

我的意思是，我認為這個項目 我的同事湯姆-奧-唐納爾本週末在歐洲新聞上發表講話，說這個項目已經死了。

I think it's close to dead, to be honest, if if these past and they look like they will, um But, you know, let's let's just step back for a second.

我認為這是接近死亡，說實話， 如果如果這些過去，他們看起來像他們會， 嗯，但是，你知道，讓我們讓我們只是退一步的第二個。

Let's be thankful for the opportunity that the end of the Trump administration has provided to improve transatlantic ties, especially with Berlin.

我們要感謝特朗普政府的結束為改善跨大西洋關係，特別是與柏林的關係提供了機會。

I have no doubt that the Biden team will be committed on this front.

我毫不懷疑，拜登團隊將在這方面做出承諾。

Both by man.

既由人。

Congress have been spoken, have spoken out against trump spurious trade disputes and threats of pulling troops out of Germany in particular.

國會一直在說話，一直在反對特朗普虛假的貿易爭端，特別是威脅從德國撤軍。

But this is separate.

但這是單獨的。

This is about energy influence projection from authoritarian nations.

這是關於專制國家的能源影響力投射。

We look at this from a transatlantic security standpoint that Russia and China are using technology and large scale critical infrastructure to do things like elite capture.

我們從跨大西洋安全的角度來看，俄羅斯和中國正在利用技術和大規模的關鍵基礎設施來做精英抓捕等事情。

We see Gerhard Schroeder working for this in Germany, we see a number of other nations working on, You know that this sort of front.

我們看到德國的格哈德-施羅德在為這個工作，我們看到其他一些國家也在為這個工作，你知道，這種陣線。

So we need to stop the strategic corruption?

所以我們要制止戰略腐敗？

Well, what what role does the change at the White House play here?

那麼，白宮的變化在這裡起到了什麼作用呢？

I mean, will it be easier or more difficult for German Chancellor Angela Merkel to tell a President Joe Biden?

我的意思是，德國總理默克爾要告訴一個總統喬-拜登是容易還是困難？

No, I mean, you know, she's not running for re election next year, so she has nothing to lose here.

不，我的意思是，你知道，她不參加明年的重新選舉， 所以她沒有什麼可失去的。

And you know, you and I have talked about this before.

你知道，你和我以前也談過這個問題。

She has tried to separate Nord Stream two business from geopolitics.

她曾試圖將北溪兩業務與地緣政治分開。

Well, Unfortunately, the Russians haven't haven't separated their state owned enterprise projects like North Stream from their own geopolitics.

不幸的是，俄羅斯人並沒有把他們的國有企業項目，比如北溪河，和他們自己的地緣政治分開。

When you and I last talked, it was in the wake of the navalny poisoning and the position of Berlin of the government.

你和我最後一次談話的時候 是在Navalny中毒事件之後 以及柏林政府的立場之後

Was Thio back off of this project?

Thio是否從這個項目中退縮了？

Should Russia not come through and actually help on that?

俄羅斯是否應該通過，在這方面提供實際幫助？

Well, they certainly did.

嗯，他們肯定是這樣做的。

But yet we're having this conversation just a few weeks later.

但是，我們卻在幾周後才有這樣的對話。

So I really think that it is possible that that Merkel will make this sort of pitch.

所以我真的覺得，默克爾有可能會做這樣的宣傳。

But I think there are bigger things that need to be fixed in the transatlantic relationship.

但我認為，在跨大西洋關係中，還有更大的事情需要解決。

That will be easier, certainly under the bite administration.

這將是比較容易的，當然是在咬合政府下。

We've got about a minute, minute, 15 this pipeline.

我們還有一分鐘，一分鐘，15分鐘，這個管道。

We know that it bypasses Ukraine.

我們知道，它繞過了烏克蘭。

Um, if you were to take Ukraine out of the equation here, um, European economies also are turning to renewable energies.

嗯，如果你把烏克蘭 從這裡的方程， 嗯，歐洲經濟也轉向 可再生能源。

But if you put that together this pipeline, it really doesn't seem to be that needed.

但如果把這個管道放在一起，似乎真的不是那麼需要。

It's not as threatening as it.

它的威脅性沒有它大。

Maybe it would have seemed five or even 10 years ago.

也許在五年甚至十年前看來。

Do you?

你有嗎？

Do you agree with that?

你同意嗎？

I think that it's not needed because it's not aimed at bringing new gas to Germany, or points west.

我認為它是不需要的，因為它的目的不是為了給德國或西部地區帶來新的天然氣。

Only 9.9 billion cubic meters of that 55 billion cubic meter project are built to do that.

在這550億立方米的項目中，僅有99億立方米的項目是為此而建的。

So it's not about this energy venda transition to renewables that some project supporters are trying to say.

所以，這並不是一些項目支持者想說的這種能源文達向可再生能源轉型的問題。

Uh, this is a massive hydrocarbon properly.

呃，這是一個巨大的碳氫化合物正確。

It's something that, uh, um volatile for the the environmental NGO has spoken out against at length, especially in the past few few weeks s.

這是東西，嗯，嗯揮發性的環保非政府組織已經說出來反對的長度，特別是在過去的幾個星期S。

So this is something where we see upstream in the Russian Federation.

所以這是我們在俄羅斯聯邦上游看到的東西。

European Space Agency satellites seeing methane plumes from the the upstream in the midstream pipelines that feed product looks like Nordstrom one and two.

歐洲航天局的衛星看到了來自上游的甲烷羽流在中游管道，餵養產品看起來像諾德斯特龍一和二。

So this is really not about, uh, you know, climate change addressing climate change.

所以，這真的不是關於，呃，你知道，氣候變化解決氣候變化。

In that respect, Benjamin Schmidt, Unfortunately, we're out of time.

在這方面，本傑明-施密特，可惜，我們的時間不多了。

Always good to talk with you.

很高興與你交談。

And I think this this story will have some longer legs on it.

我想這個故事會有一些更長的腿上。

Then we thought originally come back and talk with us again.

那我們想本來再來和我們談談。

Good seeing you.

很高興見到你。

Yes.

是的，我知道

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯

Anytime.

任何時候。

Thanks so much print.

謝謝這麼多打印。

Well, the day is almost done.

好了，今天就快結束了。

The conversation continues online.

網上的對話還在繼續。

And remember, no matter what happens between now and then, tomorrow is another day.

記住，無論從現在到那時發生了什麼，明天又是新的一天。

We'll see you then.

我們到時見。