the world's largest ever free trade deal. It's  a historic agreement that will have economic  

世界上最大的自由貿易協定。這是一個歷史性的協議，將對經濟上的

implications far beyond the region's borders  and signals a seismic geopolitical shift,  

它的影響遠遠超出了該區域的邊界，並標誌著地緣政治的重大轉變。

not only for countries that are part of  the deal, but also the ones that aren't.  

不僅是交易的一部分，而且還包括非交易的國家。

The RCEP stands for the Regional Comprehensive  Economic Partnership and, when ratified,  

RCEP代表區域全面經濟夥伴關係，一旦準許：

will create a trading bloc rivaling the European  Union and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.  

將建立一個與歐盟和美墨加協定相媲美的貿易集團。

10 of its members make up the Association  of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN, which  

東南亞國家聯盟(東盟)由其10個成員組成，該聯盟：

include Malaysia and Singapore. The remaining  five countries are Australia, New Zealand,  

包括馬來西亞和新加坡。其餘五個國家是澳洲、紐西蘭。

Japan, South Korea and most notably, China. The world's largest free trade deal covers a  

日本、韓國，最值得一提的是中國。 這個世界上最大的自由貿易協定涵蓋了一個

market of 2.2 billion people, or around a third  of the world's population. Its members are  

22億人的市場，約佔世界人口的三分之一。其成員有

responsible for $26.2 trillion of economic output,  accounting for roughly 30% of global GDP.

負責26.2萬億美元的經濟產出，約佔全球GDP的30%。

While the RCEP is the latest in a long line  of trade agreements coming out of Asia,  

雖然RCEP是亞洲一長串貿易協定中最新的一個。

it wasn't supposed to be the biggest. Negotiations for the RCEP trade deal  

它不應該是最大的。 RCEP貿易協定的談判

started back in 2013, but it attracted  renewed interest in 2017 when President  

早在2013年就開始了，但在2017年，當總統的時候，它又引起了人們的興趣。

Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of a rival  Asia-Pacific grouping that excluded China.

唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）將美國從一個排斥中國的亞太競爭集團中拉出來。

Great thing for the American worker, we just did. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP,  

美國工人的大好事，我們剛剛做了。跨太平洋夥伴關係，或TPP。

would have involved 12 countries, covering  40 percent of the world economy.

將涉及12個國家，覆蓋世界經濟的40%。

While both the RCEP and the TPP were  intended to create free and open markets,  

雖然RCEP和TPP的目的都是為了建立自由和開放的市場。

the TPP had more ambitious goals, covering  stricter common standards on labor issues,  

TPP的目標更加雄心勃勃，涵蓋了更嚴格的勞工問題共同標準。

human rights and environmental protection. The scuttled TPP pact was revived under a new  

人權和環境保護。 已被廢除的TPP條約在新的協議下得到恢復。

guise involving the 11 remaining countries —  the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement  

剩餘的11個國家參與的《全面和進步協定》。

for Trans-Pacific Partnership or CPTPP, in 2018. Because China was excluded from the U.S.- led TPP,  

為跨太平洋夥伴關係協定或CPTPP，在2018年。 因為中國被排除在美國主導的TPP之外。

observers have described the RCEP as a way for  China to counter American influence in the region,  

觀察家們將RCEP描述為中國對抗美國在該地區影響力的一種方式。

while writing the rules that  govern trade in the 21st century.  

而編寫21世紀的貿易規則。

However, some analysts feel that the economic  benefits of the RCEP are limited and could  

然而，一些分析人士認為，RCEP的經濟效益有限，可能是

take decades to fully materialize. That's  because many members of RCEP have already  

需要幾十年的時間才能完全實現。這是因為RCEP的許多成員已

signed bilateral trade deals and benefit from  reduced tariffs. Critics include Australia's  

簽署了雙邊貿易協定，並從降低關稅中獲益。批評者包括澳洲的

former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. There'll be some hoopla about the signing  

前總理馬爾科姆-特恩布爾。會有一些關於簽約的喧鬧聲

and the entry into force of RCEP. I mean  RCEP is a really low ambition trade deal.  

和RCEP的生效。我的意思是，RCEP是一個真正低雄心的貿易協定。

We shouldn't kid ourselves. The biggest impact could be the new 

我們不應該自欺欺人。 最大的影響可能是新的

'rules of origin,' which officially determine  where a product was made. These essentially  

'原產地規則'，正式確定產品的生產地。這些規則主要是

eliminate tariffs on goods traded between member  states, providing greater simplicity than a series  

取消成員國之間貿易商品的關稅，比起一系列簡單的關稅，更加簡單

of bilateral free trade agreements, especially  for companies with global supply chains.

雙邊自由貿易協定，特別是對具有全球供應鏈的公司而言。

Take, for example, a company in Thailand building  tractors for a client in Indonesia. The two  

以泰國的一家公司為印尼的客戶製造拖拉機為例。這兩個

countries are part of the ASEAN free trade  zone, but because some parts of the tractor  

國家是東盟自由貿易區的一部分，但由於部分地區的拖拉機

are made in Australia, Indonesia might charge  a tariff on the finished machine. The RCEP will  

在澳洲生產的產品，印尼可能會對成品機收取關稅。RCEP將

remove barriers like this, adding an incentive for  members to look within the bloc for suppliers.  

消除這樣的障礙，鼓勵成員在集團內尋找供應商。

The trade deal could also lay the foundations  for stronger economic partnerships in the future,  

貿易協議還可以為今後建立更強有力的經濟夥伴關係奠定基礎。

particularly between members that don't  already have free trade deals, as is the  

特別是在還沒有自由貿易協定的成員之間，就像現在一樣。

case with China, Japan and South Korea. The three East Asian nations have been  

與中國、日本和韓國的情況。東亞三國已

in negotiations over a free trade deal  since 2002 without reaching an agreement.  

自2002年以來就自由貿易協定進行談判，但沒有達成協議。

Both Japan and South Korea have close economic  and security ties with the U.S., unlike their  

日本和韓國都與美國有著密切的經濟和安全關係，不像他們的。

contentious diplomatic relationship with China. And despite rocky political relations between the  

與中國有爭議的外交關係。儘管兩國之間的政治關係搖搖欲墜

communist state and Australia, the  two have signed up to the deal.

共產黨國家和澳洲，這兩個國家已經簽署了協議。

The RCEP is China's first multilateral free-trade  agreement, which analysts say is a political  

RCEP是中國的第一個多邊自由貿易協定，分析人士認為，這是一個政

victory as much as an economic one. The deal comes at a time when the U.S.  

勝利和經濟勝利一樣多。該協議是在美國。

and China have locked horns over  a number of issues, including the  

和中國在一些問題上對立起來，其中包括

South China Sea, supply chains and 5G networks. Without U.S. involvement in the agreement, China  

南海、供應鏈和5G網絡。如果沒有美國參與該協議，中國

could sidestep pressure for major economic reforms or reform of intellectual property rights.

可以避開重大經濟改革或知識產權改革的壓力。

Companies which were already shifting supply  chains away from China due to the country's  

已經將供應鏈從中國轉移出去的公司，由於中國的

trade war with the U.S., may still be able to  source products from the country under the new  

與美國的貿易戰，可能仍能從該國採購產品，在新的貿易戰下。

agreement. The RCEP could also strengthen  China's global infrastructure strategy,  

協議。RCEP還可以加強中國的全球基礎設施戰略。

known as the Belt and Road Initiative, while  reducing U.S. commercial activity in the region.

稱為 "一帶一路 "倡議，同時減少美國在該地區的商業活動。

While the deal was originally conceived by ASEAN,  China is set to gain the most financially from  

雖然該交易最初是由東盟構思的，但中國將從該交易中獲得最大的經濟利益。

RCEP, followed by Japan and South Korea. The direct economic benefits for the 10  

RCEP，其次是日本和韓國。這10個國家的直接經濟效益是：日本和韓國。

Southeast Asian nations may be limited  due to their existing free trade accords,  

東南亞國家由於其現有的自由貿易協定，可能會受到限制。

with more than 70% of trade inside the  bloc already conducted with zero tariffs.  

集團內70%以上的貿易已經實行零關稅。

Not only is the deal likely to diminish the United  States' influence in the region, but it could also  

該協議不僅可能削弱美國在該地區的影響力，而且還可

cause it to miss out on over a hundred billion  dollars' worth of trade. Another country expected  

導致其錯失價值超過千億美元的貿易。另一個國家預計

to forego a large amount of income is India. The South Asian nation was initially involved  

以放棄大量收入的是印度。這個南亞國家最初參與

in the RCEP negotiations but dropped out in  2019 over concerns that the deal would result  

在RCEP談判中，但由於擔心該協議會導致2019年退出。

in a flood of cheap imports that would hurt  Indian businesses across many industries.

在廉價進口商品氾濫的情況下，將傷害印度各行業的企業。

There are concerns among members that without  India, the smaller Asian countries will be more  

成員們擔心，如果沒有印度，亞洲小國將更多地受到影響。

reliant on China, and in turn, Beijing  will have more leverage in the region.  

依賴中國，反過來，北京在該地區也會有更多的影響力。

How Chinese president Xi Jinping steers the  world's second largest economy in the trade  

中國國家主席習近平如何在貿易中引導世界第二大經濟體？

bloc will be watched closely. The adverse effects  of the South China Sea dispute and the Covid-19  

集團將受到密切關注。南海爭端和 "科維德-19 "的不利影響。

pandemic may lead to a more amicable approach to  diplomacy that reassures its neighbors. However,  

這場大流行病可能導致一種更友好的外交方式，使其鄰國感到放心。然而，

a 'China first' strategy cannot be ruled out. For the U.S., its trade policies are affected  

不排除'中國優先'戰略的可能性。對美國來說，其貿易政策受以下影響

by the shifting tides of domestic politics.  Trump's 'America First' policies have seen the  

受國內政治潮流變化的影響。 特朗普的 "美國優先 "政策，讓人看到。

omission of the U.S. from two of the world's  largest trade deals, leaving a political and  

美國被遺漏在世界最大的兩個貿易協議中，留下了一個政治和。

economic vacuum in the Asia-Pacific region. It may take many years for the benefits of

亞太區域的經濟真空。可能需要許多年才能享受到亞太區域經濟的好處。

RCEP to be fully realized but the announcement of the deal signals

RCEP將完全實現，但交易的宣佈意味著

that although several leading western countries have adopted isolationist policies,  

雖然幾個主要西方國家採取了孤立主義政策，但。

many Asian nations, and China in particular, are  increasingly committed to better trade links,  

許多亞洲國家，特別是中國，越來越多地致力於改善貿易聯繫。

which could shape the economic and  political landscape for years to come.

這可能會影響未來幾年的經濟和政治格局。

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