But hope has arrived in the form of three apparently highly effective vaccines, announced one after the other in November.

但11月陸續公佈的三種明顯高效的疫苗，希望已經到來。

That prompted a surge in the number of searches about them on everyone's asking, When can we get the vaccine well?

這就促使在大家的搜索上，關於他們的搜索量激增，什麼時候能打好疫苗？

To answer that there are several factors.

要回答這個問題，有幾個因素。

The first is global demand an estimated 7.5 billion doses air needed.

首先是全球需求估計需要75億劑空氣。

That's because around 60 to 70% of the global population has to be vaccinated.

因為全球約有60-70%的人口要接種疫苗。

This is why, if you have a highly efficacious vaccine and only a relatively small 40 50% of the people get vaccinated, you're not going to get the herd immunity you need on without herd immunity, the virus will continue to spread.

這就是為什麼，如果你有一個高效的疫苗，但只有相對較小的40 50％的人接種疫苗，你不會得到群體免疫力，你需要在沒有群體免疫力，病毒將繼續傳播。

So the demand for this vaccine is vast, which takes us to the second factor.

所以這個疫苗的需求量是很大的，這就涉及到第二個因素。

Capacity fighter and biotech estimate they can produce up to 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021 Moderna upto one billion AstraZeneca up to three billion of the Oxford vaccine.

產能鬥士和生物技術公司估計他們可以在2021年底前生產出高達13億劑的Moderna高達10億阿斯利康高達30億的牛津疫苗。

Huge numbers.

龐大的數字。

But look at this from the W.

但看這從W。

H.

H.

O, saying the only certainty is that there won't be enough on if there aren't enough doses are third factories which countries take priority?

奧，說唯一確定的是不會有足夠的上，如果沒有足夠的劑量是第三工廠哪些國家優先？

In short, the richest ones will.

總之，最富有的人會。

We know.

我們知道。

The U.

U.

K, the U, the U.

K、U、U。

S, Australia and others have cut deals to receive millions of vaccine doses on the W.

斯、澳洲等國已達成協議，接收數百萬支疫苗劑量，在W。

H.

H.

O is worried.

O很擔心。

There is in our riel risk that the poorest and most vulnerable people trampled will be trampled in the stampede for vaccines.

在我們的里爾有這樣的風險：最貧窮和最脆弱的人將在疫苗的狂奔中被踐踏。

There is a plan to stop this.

有一個計劃來阻止這一切。

It's called Kovacs and already almost 100 countries air agreeing to share vaccine resources fairly regardless of a country's wealth.

這就是所謂的Kovacs，已經有近100個國家空氣同意公平分享疫苗資源，無論一個國家的財富。

That will help.

這將有助於。

So we'll humanitarian groups funding affordable vaccines, but only to a point where you live will affect when you get the vaccine.

所以我們會人道主義團體資助負擔得起的疫苗，但只限於你生活的地方會影響你什麼時候打疫苗。

Next, we have to consider your age, your health and your job.

接下來，我們要考慮你的年齡、你的健康和你的工作。

The Kovacs plan prioritizes health and social care workers.

Kovacs計劃優先考慮衛生和社會護理人員。

Then this is a manual Macron on the French approach way will probably start at the end of December early January, subject to validation by the health authorities by vaccinating the most fragile people and therefore the oldest.

然後，這是一個手動馬克龍對法國的方法方式可能會開始在12月底1月初，通過接種疫苗最脆弱的人，是以最古老的衛生當局的驗證。

The U.

U.

K two is prioritizing the elderly, the vulnerable on essential workers.

K二是優先考慮老人、弱勢群體的基本工。

That's the start beyond that, the head of the U.

這是超越的開始，U的負責人。

K's Vaccine Task Force said in October.

K的疫苗任務組在10月表示。

People keep talking about time to vaccinate the whole population, but that is misguided.

人們一直在說要給全民接種疫苗的時間，但這是誤導。

It's an adult only vaccine for people over 50.

這是50歲以上的成人專用疫苗。

In other words, some adults will get it.

換句話說，有些成年人會明白。

Not all, then, in the US this is President elect Joe Biden on his ambitions.

並非全部，那麼，在美國這是當選總統喬-拜登對他的野心。

We'll need to put in place the distribution plan to get the entire country immunized as soon as possible, which we will do.

我們需要制定分配計劃，儘快讓全國人民都接受免疫接種，我們會這麼做。

But it's gonna take time.

但這需要時間

Well, whether an entire country or some of it, he's right.

嗯，無論是整個國家還是部分國家，他都是對的。

It's going to take time.

這需要時間。

The question is, How long will this take?

問題是，這需要多長時間？

Well, this is a vast logistical challenge.

嗯，這是一個巨大的後勤挑戰。

So while vaccinations may start this year, if you're not elderly, vulnerable or working in health or social care, the W.

是以，雖然今年可能會開始接種疫苗，但如果你不是老年人，弱勢群體或在衛生或社會護理部門工作，W。

H O says you may have to wait till 2022.

H O說你可能要等到2022年。

There are, though some who aren't having to wait it all in China.

有的，雖然有些人在中國不用全部等待。

Hundreds of thousands of people have taken state sponsored experimental vaccines in Russia.

俄羅斯有數十萬人服用了國家資助的實驗性疫苗。

It's vaccines being used on a range of essential workers.

是疫苗被用在一系列必要的工人身上。

Even one of Vladimir Putin's daughters has had it.

就連普京的一個女兒也得了這種病。

But none of these vaccines have yet completed industry standard trials.

但這些疫苗都還沒有完成行業標準的試驗。

And finally, there's the issue of people who don't want it all.

最後，還有一個問題，就是不想要這一切的人。

Thes anti fax protests in Germany and a report recently published in The Lancet found that 31 million people follow anti fax groups like this on Facebook.

德國的反傳真抗議活動和《柳葉刀》最近發表的一份報告發現，在Facebook上有3100萬人關注這樣的反傳真團體。

We can't know what impact these will have on the push for widespread vaccination, but we can't be clear on one thing.

我們無法知道這些會對推動疫苗的廣泛接種產生什麼影響，但有一點我們無法明確。

While demand for the vaccine is huge, those who don't want it won't be forced to take it.

雖然疫苗的需求量很大，但不想要疫苗的人也不會被迫服用。