capturing 70% of all online marketplace sales.

佔據了所有在線市場銷售額的70%。

- Google, Amazon, Facebook,

- 谷歌、亞馬遜、Facebook。

they're growing at this rapid speed.

他們的發展速度如此之快。

- There's a common thread

- 有一個共同點

connecting every billion dollar company online.

將每一個價值10億美元的公司連接到網上。

You might think that Amazon, Facebook, and Google

你可能會認為，亞馬遜、Facebook和Google

are in different businesses,

是在不同的企業。

but they're all powered by the same basic trick,

但他們都由相同的基本技巧驅動。

a kind of business superpower that's let them take over

一種商業上的超能力，讓他們接管了

advertising, commerce, and basically the entire economy.

廣告，商業，基本上整個經濟。

It's not an exaggeration to say this one trick has reshaped

毫不誇張地說，這一招重塑了

the world over the last 20 years.

在過去的20年裡，世界。

But to see how that trick works,

但要看這一招怎麼用。

you have to look at the big picture.

你必須看清大局。

(upbeat instrumental music)

(歡快的器樂)

So, the name for this is aggregation theory.

所以，這個名字叫聚合理論。

And one of the clearest examples is Uber.

而一個最明顯的例子就是Uber。

Before Uber, if you wanted to call a car,

在Uber之前，如果你想叫車。

you had to go through a dispatcher.

你必須通過一個調度員。

Those dispatchers controlled the market

這些調度員控制了市場

because they controlled the supply,

因為他們控制了供應。

and you couldn't get through to a driver

而你又無法聯繫到司機。

without going through their system.

不經過他們的系統。

Uber changed that.

Uber改變了這一點。

Now anyone can be a driver and the limiting factor is access

現在，任何人都可以成為司機，限制因素是通行證

to Uber's huge pool of customers and ride requests.

到Uber龐大的客戶池和乘車請求。

Uber maintains that pool of customers

Uber維護這個客戶池

by giving them a good experience, in this case a good app.

通過給他們良好的體驗，在這種情況下，一個好的應用程序。

Now, you might look at this and say Uber's a middleman,

現在，你可能會看到這一點，說Uber是一箇中間人。

and you'd be right.

你會是正確的。

But the dispatchers were middlemen too.

但調度員也是中間人。

The difference is that Uber keeps its hold on the market

不同的是，Uber保持了對市場的控制力。

by controlling the consumers instead of the suppliers.

通過控制消費者而不是控制供應商。

Locking down the supply of drivers is now just impossible.

鎖定司機的供應，現在就是不可能。

But as long as Uber has the best service,

但只要Uber有最好的服務。

it'll have the most ride requests,

它會有最多的騎行請求。

which gives it control over drivers

這使它可以控制驅動程序

and basically the whole market.

而基本上整個市場。

And if Lyft wants to edge in on that market,

而如果Lyft想要在這個市場上佔據優勢。

it has to do it by building a better service.

它必須通過建立更好的服務來實現。

The key thing is there's a lot of money to be made

最關鍵的是有很多錢可以賺啊

in connecting drivers with passengers.

在連接司機與乘客方面。

That middleman role is arguably the most profitable part

這個中間人的角色可以說是最有利可圖的部分。

of the entire chain.

的整個鏈條。

It used to go to whoever could control

以前是誰能控制就給誰

the supply of drivers,

司機的供應；

but now it goes to whoever can aggregate

但現在，它是由誰能彙總

all of the customers in one place.

所有的客戶都在一個地方。

Hence aggregation theory.

是以，聚集理論。

- So what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna walk through

- 所以，我要做的是我要去走過。

the idea of aggregation theory.

聚合論的思想。

- The analyst Ben Thompson came up with this theory

- 分析師本-湯普森提出了這個理論

and it's the best answer we have for how companies

這也是我們對公司如何發展的最佳答案。

like Google, Amazon, and Facebook got so big so fast.

像谷歌、亞馬遜和Facebook這麼快就變大了。

For today's businesses,

對於今天的企業來說。

the hardest problem is customer discovery.

最難的問題是客戶發現。

There's so much stuff on the internet

網上的東西太多了

that customers need help finding it.

客戶需要幫助尋找它。

So if you can build a relationship with the end user,

所以，如果你能與終端用戶建立關係。

everything else takes care of itself.

自求多福

- And you had this overwhelming amount of data available

- 而你有這個壓倒性的數據量可用

or articles available on the internet

或互聯網上的文章

and Google comes along and it's a way to find it.

和谷歌的出現，它是一種找到它的方法。

The hard problem is finding stuff.

困難的問題是找東西。

And so Google solved the new hardest problem,

於是，谷歌解決了新的最難的問題。

and what happened is Google could scale

而發生的事情是谷歌可以擴展

basically infinitely so they could basically bring together

基本上是無限的，所以他們基本上可以彙集到一起

all of the consumers, aggregate them all together.

所有的消費者，將他們全部聚集在一起。

- Thompson's idea is that for any business

- 湯普森的想法是，對於任何企業來說

you have this chain from suppliers to consumers,

你有這個鏈條從供應商到消費者。

with distributors in the middle.

與經銷商在中間。

And for most of the 20th century,

而在20世紀的大部分時間裡。

distributors we're integrated with suppliers.

分銷商，我們與供應商進行了整合。

So, Ford not only builds the car,

所以，福特不僅造車。

it franchises the dealership that sells it to you.

它特許經銷商，把它賣給你。

But the internet changes that.

但互聯網改變了這一點。

Instead of locking down the suppliers,

而不是鎖定供應商。

distributors are now getting ahead

經銷商現在已經走在了前面

by locking down consumers.

通過鎖定消費者。

So, you see services like Cars.com or Expedia

所以，你看到Cars.com或Expedia等服務。

that focus on aggregating customers together

專注於將客戶聚集在一起

by putting all the options in one place.

通過將所有的選項放在一個地方。

You see it with menu aggregators that wanna be

你可以看到它與菜單聚合器，想成為

the single source for takeout orders,

單的外賣訂單來源。

a kind of aggregator between you and your local Thai place.

一種你和泰國當地地方之間的聚合器。

You've also probably experienced

你可能也經歷過

some version of this with Facebook.

某種版本的與Facebook。

Even if you don't use the site or even like it,

即使你不使用這個網站，甚至不喜歡它。

you've probably invited people to a party

你可能已經邀請人們去參加一個聚會

through a Facebook event,

通過Facebook活動。

just because it's easier than rounding up everyone's emails.

只是因為這比把每個人的郵件彙總起來更容易。

It's where everyone is.

這是每個人都在的地方。

And if you're a business,

而如果你是一個企業。

you might end up paying Facebook to get into the news feeds

你可能會最終支付Facebook進入新聞源。

of people who already follow you.

的人誰已經關注你。

Facebook has successfully positioned itself between you

Facebook已經成功地將自己定位在你

and the people you wanna talk to

和你想說話的人

just by being too big to avoid.

只是因為太大，無法避免。

Then there's Google

還有就是谷歌

which is just aggregating the entire internet.

這只是聚合了整個互聯網。

How many times have you navigated to a site by Googling it

你有多少次通過Google導航到一個網站？

instead of using a bookmark or typing in the URL?

而不是使用書籤或輸入網址？

If you wanna know where a restaurant is

如果你想知道一家餐廳在哪裡

or when a historical figure was born,

或歷史人物出生時。

it seems archaic to look it up direct from a source.

直接從源頭查起，似乎已經過時了。

Just Google it.

只要谷歌一下。

This one company has become the aggregator

這家公司已經成為聚合體

of all of the internet-accessible information in the world.

世界上所有可通過互聯網獲取的資訊中，。

And the bigger that pool of facts becomes,

而且這個事實庫越大。

the more powerful Google is.

越是強大的谷歌。

- As the internet got larger, Google got better.

- 隨著互聯網的規模越來越大，谷歌也越來越好。

It linked its quality to the scale of the internet.

它的品質與互聯網的規模掛鉤。

- The idea of aggregation theory has become really popular

- 聚合理論的思想已經真正流行起來了。

in the tech world and there's a growing argument

在科技界，有一個越來越多的說法是

about what it means for antitrust law.

關於它對反壟斷法的意義。

The story of aggregation theory is all about competition.

聚合理論的故事都是關於競爭的。

In some ways it's even more competitive

在某些方面，它甚至更有競爭力

because instead of locking down suppliers,

因為與其鎖定供應商。

you're competing for consumers.

你在爭奪消費者。

But there are also all of these winner-take-all effects

但也有這些贏家通吃的效果。

on the internet specifically

在網上

that combine with aggregation theory in really scary ways.

與聚合理論相結合的方式真的很可怕。

There isn't a lot of reason to use

沒有太多的理由去使用

the second best search engine

第二大搜索引擎

or the second best e-commerce platform

還是第二好的電商平臺

or the second best social network.

還是第二好的社交網絡。

So as soon as one company gets a lead,

所以只要有一家公司得到了線索。

they end up controlling all of the users,

他們最終會控制所有的用戶。

which makes them even more powerful

這使他們更加強大

and harder to compete with.

也更難與之競爭。

- Open markets are predicated on the idea

- 公開市場是基於以下理念

that if a company harms people,

如果一個公司傷害了人們。

consumers, workers, and business partners

消費者、工人和商業夥伴

will choose another option.

會選擇另一種方案。

We're here today because that choice is no longer possible.

我們今天在這裡，是因為這種選擇已經不可能了。

- To see how the internet makes this stuff weird,

- 要看網絡是如何讓這個東西變得奇怪。

imagine a strip mall.

想象一下，一個帶狀商場。

There's a big Walmart and lots of little stores next to it.

有一個大的沃爾瑪，旁邊還有很多小店。

People go to the Walmart for most things,

人們去沃爾瑪買大部分東西。

but if you're selling candles,

但如果你是賣蠟燭的，

you still might be able to carve out a niche

你還是有可能開闢出一個利基市場的。

for a candle store.

蠟燭店的。

You'll make a better margin that way

這樣你的利潤會更高

than selling wholesale to Walmart,

比賣給沃爾瑪批發。

and Walmart can only stock so much.

而沃爾瑪只能儲存這麼多。

Physical retail makes it hard to do everything at once,

實體零售讓人很難一下子做到面面俱到。

just because there's only so much space

寸土寸金

and only so many customers you can draw in.

也只有這麼多的客戶你才能吸引進來。

But the internet lets you build an infinite Walmart,

但互聯網可以讓你建立一個無限的沃爾瑪。

extending beyond time and space,

超越時間和空間。

unbounded by the laws of physics.

不受物理定律的限制。

Instead of shopping around through different stores,

而不是通過不同的店面去購物。

everyone just goes to the infinite Walmart.

大家就去無限的沃爾瑪。

Because it's infinitely large,

因為它是無限大的。

customers know it will have whatever they're looking for.

客戶知道它將有任何他們正在尋找的東西。

And because it can contain an infinite number of people,

因為它可以容納無限多的人。

businesses know they'll get more sales

企業知道他們會得到更多的銷售

inside the infinite Walmart

無限沃爾瑪內

then making a go of it on their own.

然後自己去做。

Now, think about the boss of the infinite Walmart.

現在，想想無限沃爾瑪的老闆。

Regular boss stuff like choosing inventory

普通老闆的東西，如選擇庫存

and selecting shelf placement gives them

和選擇貨架的位置給他們

almost God-like power.

近乎神一般的力量。

It's not just that they control the biggest store.

這不僅僅是他們控制了最大的商店。

They control access to all the customers

他們控制所有客戶的訪問權限

and as long as they hold that power,

而只要他們掌握了這個權力，

it's hard to imagine any infinite Targets

很難想象會有無限的Targets。

popping up to challenge them.

冒出來挑戰他們。

Pretty soon, people are launching businesses entirely

很快，人們就會完全啟動業務

to succeed within the walls of the infinite Walmart,

以在無限沃爾瑪的圍牆內成功。

basing their entire concept of retail

基於他們的整個零售概念

around the boss's arcane rules.

圍繞著老闆的玄機規則。

This is basically the tech dream.

這基本上是科技夢。

Don't just capture the sales,

不要只抓銷售。

capture the entire marketplace,

佔領整個市場。

and then use that vantage to jump

然後利用這個有利位置跳

into more and more lines of business.

成越來越多的業務線。

Aggregation theory shows us how that works

聚合理論向我們展示了它是如何運作的

and why the internet keeps producing

以及為什麼互聯網不斷產生

these huge unstoppable businesses.

這些巨大的不可阻擋的企業。

Once you've aggregated all of the customers in one place,

一旦你把所有的客戶聚集在一個地方。

you can jump into almost any market.

你幾乎可以跳進任何市場。

Amazon started by selling books,

亞馬遜是靠賣書起家的。

but now it's selling groceries, dog food,

但現在它的銷售雜貨，狗糧。

prescription drugs, security cameras, voice assistance,

處方藥、安全攝像頭、語音助手。

and tons of other things.

和其他大量的東西。

The basic logic of aggregation theory

聚合理論的基本邏輯

lets the company expand and expand

讓公司的規模不斷擴大

until it incorporates almost everything.

直到把幾乎所有的東西都納入其中。

The internet doesn't have to be like this.

互聯網不一定要這樣。

We used to have a more decentralized web

我們過去有一個比較分散的網絡。

and some products like streaming video and cloud hosting

和一些產品，如流媒體視頻和雲主機

have resisted the winner-take-all dynamic.

已經抵制了贏家通吃的態勢。

But if you're wondering how tech companies got so big

但如果你想知道科技公司是如何做大的？

and so aggressive, this is basically why.

並如此積極，這基本是原因。

Most founders and tech investors don't wanna solve problems

大多數創始人和科技投資人都不想解決問題。

or figure out better ways to do things.

或者想出更好的辦法來做事情。

They just wanna use the internet as a place

他們只是想利用互聯網作為一個地方

to build their own infinite Walmart

構建自己的無限沃爾瑪

and make themselves the boss.

並讓自己成為老闆。

Thanks for watching.

謝謝你的觀看。

Let us know what you think in the comments.

讓我們在評論中知道你的想法。

And if you like this video,

如果你喜歡這個視頻，

check out this other one about how Amazon ended up

看看這個其他的關於亞馬遜是如何結束的。

taking over the entire internet.

佔據了整個互聯網。