never give up; you are going to be successful. The path to success has never been so clear,

永不放棄，你一定會成功。通往成功的道路從未如此清晰。

we have documented the lives of an endless number of successful people to figure out

我們記錄了無數成功者的生活，以找出

what truly makes them successful, and it seems like if we just follow their advice and work

是什麼讓他們真正成功，似乎只要我們按照他們的建議和工作。

hard enough, we should be able to replicate their success, but why aren't there more successful

足夠努力，我們應該可以複製他們的成功，但為什麼沒有更多的成功？

people? Why the overwhelming majority who follow this type of advice end up achieving

的人？為什麼絕大多數聽從這類建議的人，最後都取得了。

nothing? What I want to figure out in this video is - can you really get rich by working

什麼都沒有？在這個視頻中，我想弄明白的是--你真的可以通過工作致富嗎？

hard Regardless of who you? Or is it just a myth that we have been fed with?

難不管你是誰？還是說這只是我們被灌輸的一個神話？

By the end of this video, you will understand how much luck plays in each and everyone's

在這段視頻結束時，你會明白運氣在每個人的生活中扮演了多麼重要的角色。

success, and do you even stand a stance to be the next bill gates or warren Buffett if

成功，你甚至站在一個立場是下一個比爾蓋茨或沃倫巴菲特，如果。

you work as hard

吃苦耐勞

as them. 


作為他們。

The Dark Side Of becoming Successful  


成為成功的黑暗面 
。

Back in the mid 20th century, during World War 2, Britain started losing lots of aircraft,

早在20世紀中期，二戰期間，英國就開始損失大量的飛機。

and it became a quite serious problem, so they tried to figure out a way to reduce that

這成了一個相當嚴重的問題，所以他們想辦法減少這種情況的發生

number; otherwise they might lose the war if they keep losing so

數，否則他們可能會輸掉這場戰爭，如果他們一直這樣輸下去的話。

many planes. The logical thing was to put more armor around

很多飛機。合乎邏輯的是在周圍裝上更多的裝甲。

the aircraft to make it more resistant against bullets, but that was not an option since

飛機，使其更能抵禦子彈，但這不是一個選擇，因為

adding more armor to an already heavy aircraft would make it much slower and an easier target

加裝裝甲的重型飛機，會使它的速度更慢，更容易成為攻擊目標

for the enemy.  So engineers came up with another solution,

為敵人服務。 於是工程師們又想出了另一個辦法。

let's just add extra armor to the parts of the aircraft that gets hit the most.

讓我們只是增加額外的裝甲的飛機的部分，得到的打擊最多。

They took a look at the aircraft that came back after a mission and realized that the

他們看了看執行完任務回來的飛機，發現。

wings of the aircraft had a lot more bullet holes than other parts such as the engine.

飛機的機翼上的彈孔比發動機等其他部件多很多。

So naturally, the engineers came to the conclusion that the enemy targets the wings more often.

所以，工程師們自然而然地得出了一個結論，那就是敵人的目標多是機翼。

If we just add more armor to those areas of the aircraft, they will crash less often.

如果我們只是在飛機的這些地方增加裝甲，它們就會減少墜毀的頻率。

Right?! Wrong! 

對不對？錯了！

Despite the fact that it looks like a logical solution, it is not. The engineers based their

儘管這看起來像是一個合理的解決方案，但事實並非如此。工程師們基於他們的

opinion on their aircraft that returned back home from the battlefield. And didn't take

對他們從戰場上回國的飛機的意見。並沒有採取

into account all the aircraft that got hit in other places and were crashed. 

考慮到所有在其他地方被擊中而墜毀的飛機。

The reason why so little aircrafts had bullet holes in their engines is that most of them

之所以這麼小的飛機的發動機上有彈孔，是因為大部分的飛機

couldn't make it back and were destroyed on the battlefield. 

沒能趕回來，被毀在了戰場上。


 If you visit the hospital, you will see many

如果你到醫院去，你會看到很多的

more people with injuries in their legs and arms than

腿部和手臂受傷的人比其他地方多。

people with injuries in their chests or head. That's not because people don't get shot in

胸部或頭部受傷的人。這並不是因為人們沒有被槍殺的原因

the head or chest, but rather because they end up dead in the battleground.

頭部或胸部，而是因為他們最終死在了戰場上。


 This concept is known as survivorship bias.

這個概念被稱為倖存者偏差。

Understanding the implications of this bias can help us make more rational decisions.

瞭解這種偏見的影響，可以幫助我們做出更理性的決策。

Let's take the example of YouTube. There are some YouTubers who dropped out of college

我們以YouTube為例。有一些YouTuber從大學退學了。

and started streaming video games both on Twitch and YouTube, and some of them have

並開始在Twitch和YouTube上串流視頻遊戲，其中一些遊戲已經。

ended up really successful. They earned more money than a college graduate could potentially

最後真的成功了。他們賺的錢比一個大學畢業生有可能賺的錢還要多

make.  From one side, it looks like if you are a

使。 從一個側面看，如果你是一個。

good gamer and commentator, if you also drop out of college, work super hard, be patient,

好的玩家和解說員，如果你也從大學退學了，工作超級努力，要有耐心。

you might end up as successful as them. Which, in theory, seems legit.

你可能最終會像他們一樣成功。理論上來說，這似乎是合法的。

However, what we didn't take into account is the huge number of hard-working gamers

然而，我們沒有考慮到的是，大量辛勤工作的遊戲人

who did exactly that but failed. Steve Jobs dropped out of college and built

的人正是這樣做的，但卻失敗了。史蒂夫-喬布斯從大學退學後，建立了

the world's largest company but how many other young entrepreneurs dropped out of college

世界上最大的公司，但還有多少年輕的創業者從大學輟學

to start a company and made it? There are thousands of others who tried and failed,

創辦公司併成功了？還有成千上萬的人嘗試過，但都失敗了。

but you have never heard about them. 


但你從來沒有聽說過他們。

And that begs the question: are you really in control of your life? Or freedom is that

這就引出了一個問題：你真的能掌控自己的人生嗎？或者說自由就是

just an illusion? 


只是一種錯覺？

The truth is the number of factors that influence our success is way beyond our control. 

事實上，影響我們成功的因素之多，是我們無法控制的。

Take the butterfly, for example. It's such a small and weak creature that it has absolutely

以蝴蝶為例。它是一個如此弱小的生物，它絕對有...

no influence over anything in this world, but the flap of a butterfly's wings in the

對這個世界上的任何事物都沒有影響，但蝴蝶的翅膀在拍打著

Amazon (forest) creates a tiny change in the atmospheric pressure, overtime they compound

亞馬遜(森林)造成大氣壓力的微小變化，久而久之，它們就會複合。

and cause a tornado in Texas. Of course, the tornado wasn't solely created by the butterfly

並在德克薩斯州引起一場龍捲風。當然，龍捲風並不完全是由蝴蝶造成的。

because there are so many factors that influence the weather, including the flap of the butterfly's

因為影響天氣的因素太多了，包括蝴蝶的扇子

wings.  The world is connected in so many ways you

翅膀。 世界在很多方面都是相通的，你

can't imagine. Back in 1962, during the cold war, a US destroyer

無法想象。早在1962年，冷戰期間，美國的一艘驅逐艦。

(ship) located a Russian nuclear submarine in the International waters near Cuba. To

(船)在古巴附近的國際水域發現一艘俄羅斯核潛艇。至

force the submarine to come to the surface, the US destroyer began dropping explosives.

迫使潛艇浮出水面，美國驅逐艦開始投擲炸藥。

The Russian nuclear submarine lost contact with Moscow for a number of days already.

俄羅斯核潛艇與莫斯科失去聯繫已經好幾天了。

So the officers thought that a war broke out between the soviet union and the US since

所以軍官們認為蘇聯和美國之間爆發了一場戰爭，自

a US destroyer have been dropping explosive on them. The captain of the submarine, Valentin

美國驅逐艦一直在向他們投擲爆炸物。潛艇的艦長瓦倫丁...

Savitsky, decided that a war might already have started and wanted to launch a nuclear

薩維茨基認為，戰爭可能已經開始了，並想發射核彈。

torpedo. But to launch a nuclear Torpedo, three officers on board had to agree unanimously

魚雷。但要發射一枚核魚雷,船上的三名軍官必須一致同意。

to authorize a nuclear launch. Vasily Arkhipov, who was one of the officers, was against the

授權進行核發射。瓦西里-阿爾赫波夫是其中一名軍官，他反對發射核彈。

launch. If it wasn't for him, the nuclear torpedo

發射。如果不是他，核魚雷... ...

would have been launched, the United States and the Soviet Union would have turned each

美國和蘇聯就會互相傾軋。

other into nuclear wastelands. Which means the dot com revolution wouldn't have taken

變成核荒地。這意味著網絡革命不會採取

place in silicon valley, which means Jeff Bezos wouldn't become the richest person in

的地方，這意味著傑夫-貝佐斯不會成為硅谷最富有的人。

the world today. It not to say that Vasily Arkhipov made Jeff

今天的世界。這並不是說瓦西里-阿爾赫波夫讓傑夫

Bezos so successful, but things would have turned differently if he has authorised the

貝佐斯如此成功，但如果他授權了，事情會有不同的結果。

launch. Imagine how many more factors are there that

發射。試想一下，還有多少因素可以

influences your life. Factor you do not even consider when you plan your life.

影響你的生活。你在規劃人生的時候都沒有考慮的因素。


 So let's try to answer the question of this

所以我們試著回答這個問題吧

video.  


視頻：

- Can you really get rich by working hard? 


- 你真的可以通過努力工作致富嗎？

The answer is complicated. It's both yes and no.

答案很複雜。既是又不是。

If you were born in the 1970s in a third-world country in Africa, no matter how talented

如果你是70年代出生在非洲的第三世界國家，無論你有多大的才華

and smart you were, you probably would have died from malaria or from any other disease.

你再聰明，也可能會死於瘧疾或任何其他疾病。

Even if you ended up surviving, you had to work for 12 hours a day to put food on the

即使你最終活了下來，你也必須每天工作12小時，以保證食物的供應。

table because you would die from hunger otherwise. 


桌子，因為你會死於飢餓，否則。


 On the other hand, if you were born in California

另一方面，如果你出生在加州。

in the 1970s, you would have been in the middle of the internet revolution when you reach

在20世紀70年代，你應該是在互聯網革命的中間，當你達到了

your 20s. Chances you would start an internet company or join one would be much higher than

你的20多歲。你創辦互聯網公司或加入互聯網公司的機會會比不上

if you were born in a third world country back then.

如果你當時出生在第三世界國家。


 Here is another example, If you ask a successful

下面是另一個例子，如果你問一個成功者

hockey player why he has been so successful, he will probably tell you that he has been

曲棍球運動員為什麼會如此成功，他可能會告訴你，他一直是

working super hard, he has been consistent and never gave up despite the hardship, but

工作超級辛苦，他始終如一，儘管困難重重，但從未放棄過，但。

he would never mention the fact that one of the reasons he is successful because he has

他永遠不會提及他成功的原因之一是他擁有

been born on the 2nd of January. The cut-off dates for kids hockey league is the 1st of

1月2日出生。兒童冰球聯賽的截止日期是1月1日。

January. Kids who are born in the first part of the year are, on average, a little bigger

一月份。出生在上半年的孩子，平均個頭要大一些。

and taller than December-born players. This head start gives players born in the first

並比12月出生的球員更高。這種先發優勢讓出生在第一年的球員

months of the year a life-long advantage: as kids, they are more likely to be chosen

一年中的幾個月是一個終生的優勢：作為孩子，他們更有可能被選中。

for top tier competitive teams, they get more ice time and better coaching. That's why almost

對於頂級競爭球隊來說，他們能得到更多的上場時間和更好的教練。這就是為什麼幾乎

half (40%) of the players who are selected into top tier league have been born between

入選頂級聯賽的球員中，有一半（40%）的球員出生於19歲至19歲之間。

January and March. While Those born in the last quarter of the year might as well just

一月和三月。而那些出生在這一年最後一個季度的人，可能也就只是

"give up on hockey. And that's the case with everything and everyone.

"放棄冰球。而這是一切和所有人的情況。

What eventually determines your success is everything, even the factors that you have

最終決定你成功的是一切，而這些因素你甚至

no control over, such as your birthday, birthplace, your parents, the relationship between your parents,

無法掌控，像是你的生日、出生地點、父母、你父母間的感情、

the school you go to, and a million other factors.

你上的學校，以及其他無數的因素。

We have made an entire video explaining why you will most probably end up poor if you

我們已經做了一個完整的視頻，解釋為什麼你很可能會最終貧窮，如果你

are born into a low-income family. 


是出生在低收入家庭。

By now, you are probably discouraged. You might say what's the point of doing anything

現在，你可能已經灰心喪氣了。你可能會說，做任何事情都有什麼意義呢？

If I am not in control? Well, if you don't work hard, you will most

如果我沒有把握？好吧，如果你不努力工作，你將最

definitely be poor. There are cerntaly things we can't control.

一定要窮。有些事情是我們無法控制的。

But if you are born in the right place and don't have to spend 12 hours a day just to

但如果你生在對的地方，不用每天花12個小時，只為了。

put food on the table, you stand a chance to achieve financial independence. You might

把食物放在桌子上，你就有機會實現經濟獨立。你可能

stand a chance to become a millionaire if you push hard enough.

有機會成為百萬富翁，如果你足夠努力。

Maybe not a a billionaire because only 2825 people could become one out of 7.8 billion

也許不是億萬富翁，因為78億人中只有2825人可以成為億萬富翁。

that inhabit this planet.

居住在這個星球上的。

But There is just no way to know that unless you try. So you are left with 2 options, you

但除非你試過，否則無法知道。所以你只剩下兩個選擇，你

either going to try and find out or don't and stay where you. Maybe the odds are in

要麼去試著找，要麼不找，留在原地。也許機會是在

your favour and the only thing that is left is

寵辱不驚，只剩下了

you trying. The choice is yours.


你的嘗試。選擇權在你手裡。