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  • Transcriber: TED Translators Admin Reviewer: Rhonda Jacobs

    轉錄者TED Translators Admin Reviewer:Rhonda Jacobs

  • John Doerr: Hello, Hal!

    你好,哈爾!

  • Hal Harvey: John, nice to see you.

    哈爾・哈維。約翰,很高興見到你。

  • JD: Nice to see you too.

    JD:也很高興見到你。

  • HH: So John, we've got a big challenge.

    HH:所以,約翰,我們有一個很大的挑戰。

  • We need to get carbon out of the atmosphere.

    我們需要把大氣中的碳排出。

  • We need to stop emitting carbon,

    我們需要停止排放碳。

  • drive it to zero by 2050.

    到2050年將其降至零。

  • And we need to be halfway there by 2030.

    而我們需要在2030年之前達到一半的目標。

  • Where are we now?

    我們現在在哪裡?

  • JD: As you know, we're dumping 55 billion tons

    如你所知,我們正在傾倒550億噸的垃圾

  • of carbon pollution in our precious atmosphere every year,

    每年在我們寶貴的大氣中造成的碳汙染。

  • as if it's some kind of free and open sewer.

    彷彿這是某種自由開放的下水道。

  • To get halfway to zero by 2030,

    到2030年實現半數為零。

  • we're going to have to reduce annual emissions

    我們將不得不減少每年的排放量。

  • by about 10 percent a year.

    每年增加10%左右。

  • And we've never reduced annual emissions in any year

    而且我們從來沒有減少過任何一年的年排放量。

  • in the history of the planet.

    在地球的歷史上。

  • So let's break this down.

    所以我們來分析一下。

  • Seventy-five percent of the emissions

    排放量的75%

  • come from the 20 largest emitting countries.

    來自20個最大排放國。

  • And from four sectors of their economy.

    而從其經濟的四個部門來看。

  • The first is grid.

    第一個是網格。

  • Second, transportation.

    第二,交通。

  • The third from the buildings.

    第三種來自建築物。

  • And the fourth from industrial activities.

    第四種來自工業活動。

  • We've got to fix all those, at speed and at scale.

    我們必須解決所有這些問題,速度和規模。

  • HH: We do.

    HH:我們是這樣的。

  • And matters are in some ways worse than we think and some ways better.

    而事情在某些方面比我們想象的要糟糕,而在某些方面又比我們想象的要好。

  • Let me start with the worse.

    讓我從更糟糕的開始說起。

  • Climate change is a wicked problem.

    氣候變化是一個邪惡的問題。

  • And what do I mean by wicked problem?

    那我說的惡性問題是什麼意思呢?

  • It means it's a problem that transcends geographic boundaries.

    這意味著這是一個超越地理界限的問題。

  • The sources are everywhere, and the impacts are everywhere.

    源頭無處不在,影響也無處不在。

  • Although obviously some nations have contributed much more than others.

    雖然顯然有些國家的貢獻比其他國家大得多。

  • In fact, one of the terrible things about climate change

    事實上,氣候變化的可怕之處在於

  • is those who contributed least to it will be hurt the most.

    是那些對此貢獻最小的人將受到最大的傷害。

  • It's a great inequity machine.

    這是一個偉大的不公平的機器。

  • So here we have a problem that you cannot solve

    所以我們這裡有一個你無法解決的問題。

  • within the national boundaries of one country,

    在一個國家的國界內。

  • and yet international institutions are notoriously weak.

    然而,國際機構是眾所周知的軟弱無力。

  • So that's part of the wicked problem.

    所以這也是邪惡問題的一部分。

  • The second element of the wicked problem is it transcends normal timescales.

    邪惡問題的第二個要素是它超越了正常的時間尺度。

  • We're used to news day by day,

    我們已經習慣了一天天的新聞。

  • or quarterly reports for business enterprises,

    或商業企業的季度報告。

  • or an election cycle -- that's about the longest we think anymore of.

    或一個選舉週期 -- 這是我們認為最長的時間了。

  • Climate change essentially lasts forever.

    氣候變化基本上會永遠持續下去。

  • When you put carbon dioxide into the atmosphere,

    當你把二氧化碳放進大氣中時,

  • it's there, or its impacts are there, for 1,000 years.

    它在那裡,或者它的影響在那裡,1000年。

  • It's a gift we keep on giving for our children, our grandchildren

    這是我們為我們的孩子,我們的孫子不斷送出的禮物。

  • and dozens and dozens of generations beyond there.

    以及那裡以後的幾十代人。

  • JD: It sounds like a tax we keep on paying.

    JD:這聽起來就像我們一直在交的稅。

  • HH: Yeah, it is. It is.

    HH:是的,它是。是的,它是。

  • You sin once, you pay forever.

    一朝犯錯,終身受罰

  • And then the third element of it being a wicked problem

    然後第三個因素是它是一個邪惡的問題。

  • is that carbon dioxide is embedded in every aspect of our industrial economy.

    是二氧化碳已經嵌入到我們工業經濟的方方面面。

  • Every car, and every truck, and every airplane, and every house,

    每一輛車,每一輛卡車,每一架飛機,每一座房子。

  • and every electrical socket, and every industrial processes

    和每一個電源插座,以及每一個工業流程

  • now emits carbon dioxide.

    現在排放二氧化碳。

  • JD: So what's the recipe?

    JD:那有什麼配方?

  • HH: Well, here's the shortcut.

    HH:嗯,這是捷徑。

  • If you decarbonize the grid, the electrical grid,

    如果你把電網去碳化,電網。

  • and then run everything on electricity --

    然後用電運行一切 -

  • decarbonize the grid and electrify everything --

    電網低碳化和萬物電氣化-------------------------。

  • if you do those two things, you have a zero carbon economy.

    如果你做了這兩件事,你就有了一個零碳經濟。

  • Now, that would seem like a pipe dream just a few years ago

    現在看來,這在幾年前簡直是天方夜譚。

  • because it was expensive to create a zero-carbon grid.

    因為建立零碳電網的成本很高。

  • But the prices of solar and wind have plummeted.

    但太陽能和風能的價格卻大幅下降。

  • Solar's now the cheapest form of electricity on planet earth

    太陽能現在是地球上最便宜的電力形式。

  • and wind is second.

    而風是其次。

  • It means now that you can convert the grid to zero-carbon rapidly

    這意味著現在你可以迅速地將電網轉換為零碳。

  • and save consumers money along the way.

    並沿途為消費者省錢。

  • So there's leverage.

    所以有槓桿作用。

  • JD: Well, I think a key question, Hal, is do we have the technology that we need

    JD:嗯,我認為一個關鍵的問題,哈爾,是我們是否有我們需要的技術。

  • to replace fossil fuels to get this job done?

    以取代化石燃料來完成這項工作?

  • And my answer is no.

    而我的答案是否定的。

  • I think we're about 70, maybe 80 percent of the way there.

    我想我們已經完成了70%,也許80%的路程。

  • For example, we urgently need a breakthrough in batteries.

    比如,我們急需在電池方面有所突破。

  • Our batteries need to be higher energy density.

    我們的電池需要更高的能量密度。

  • They need to have enhanced safety, faster charging.

    他們需要有更強的安全性,更快的充電速度。

  • They need to take less space and less weight,

    它們需要佔用更少的空間和更少的重量。

  • and above all else, they need to cost a lot less.

    而最重要的是,它們的成本要低得多。

  • In fact, we need new chemistries that don't rely on scarce cobalt.

    事實上,我們需要不依賴稀缺鈷的新化學試劑。

  • And we're going to need lots of these batteries.

    我們需要很多這樣的電池。

  • We desperately need much more research in clean energy technology.

    我們迫切需要更多的清潔能源技術研究。

  • The US invests about 2.5 billion dollars a year.

    美國每年投資約25億美元。

  • Do you know how much Americans spend on potato chips?

    你知道美國人在薯片上花了多少錢嗎?

  • HH: No.

    HH:沒有。

  • JD: The answer is 4 billion dollars.

    JD:答案是40億美金。

  • Now, what do you think of that?

    現在,你覺得怎麼樣?

  • HH: Upside down.

    HH:顛倒了。

  • But let me press a little further

    但讓我再往前推一下

  • on a question that's fascinated me about the Silicon Valley.

    在一個讓我著迷的問題上,硅谷。

  • So the Silicon Valley is governed by Moore's law,

    所以硅谷是受摩爾定律支配的。

  • where performance doubles every 18 months.

    其中業績每18個月翻一番。

  • It's not really a law, it's an observation,

    這不是真正的法律,而是一種觀察。

  • but be that as it may.

    但儘管如此

  • The energy world is governed by much more mundane laws,

    能源世界受更多的世俗法則支配。

  • the laws of thermodynamics, right?

    熱力學定律,對吧?

  • It's physical stuff in the economy.

    是經濟中的實物。

  • Cement, trucks, factories, power plants.

    水泥、卡車、工廠、電廠。

  • JD: Atoms, not bits.

    JD:原子,不是比特。

  • HH: Atoms, not bits. Perfect.

    HH:原子,不是比特。完美。

  • And the transformation of big physical things is slower,

    而大的物理事物的轉變是比較慢的。

  • and the margins are worse, and often the commodities are generic.

    且利潤率較差,往往商品是通用的。

  • How do we stimulate the kind of innovation in those worlds

    我們如何刺激這些世界的創新?

  • that we actually need in order to save this planet earth?

    為了拯救地球,我們真的需要嗎?

  • JD: Well, that's a really great question.

    JD:嗯,這是一個非常好的問題。

  • The innovation starts with basic science in research and development.

    創新要從研發的基礎科學開始。

  • And the American commitment to that, while advanced on a global sense,

    而美國對此的承諾,雖然在全球意義上推進。

  • is still paltry.

    仍然是微不足道的。

  • It needs to be 10 times higher

    要高出10倍

  • than the, say, 2.5 billion per year that we spend on clean energy R and D.

    比比如說,我們每年花在清潔能源研發上的25億。

  • But we need to go beyond R and D as well.

    但我們也需要超越R和D。

  • There needs to be a kind of development, a kind of pre-commercialization,

    需要有一種發展,一種預商業化。

  • which in the US is done by a group called ARPA-E.

    這在美國是由一個叫ARPA-E的組織完成的。

  • Then there's the matter of forming new companies.

    還有就是組建新公司的問題。

  • HH: Yes.

    HH:是的。

  • JD: And I think entrepreneurial energy is shifting back into that field.

    JD:而且我認為創業的能量正在重新轉移到這個領域。

  • It's clear that it takes longer and more capital,

    很明顯,這需要更長的時間和更多的資本。

  • but you can build a really substantial and valuable enterprise or company.

    但你可以建立一個真正有規模、有價值的企業或公司。

  • HH: Yes.

    HH:是的。

  • JD: Tesla's a prime example. Beyond Meat is another one.

    JD:特斯拉就是一個典型的例子。Beyond Meat是另一個。

  • And that's inspiring entrepreneurs globally.

    而這也激勵著全球的企業家們。

  • But that's not enough.

    但這還不夠。

  • I think you need also a demand signal, in the form of policies and purchases,

    我認為你還需要一個需求信號,以政策和購買的形式。

  • from nations, like Germany did with solar, to go make these markets happen.

    從國家,就像德國對太陽能一樣,去實現這些市場。

  • And so I'm, at heart, a capitalist.

    所以我的內心,是一個資本家。

  • I think this energy crisis is the mother of all markets.

    我認為這次能源危機是所有市場之母。

  • And it will take longer.

    而且時間會更長。

  • But the market for electric vehicle batteries -- 500 billion dollars a year.

    但電動車電池的市場--每年5000億美金。

  • It's probably another 500 billion dollars if you go to stationary batteries.

    如果你去做固定電池,可能又是5000億美金。

  • I want to tell you another story that involves policy,

    我還想給大家講一個涉及政策的故事。

  • but importantly, plans.

    但重要的是,計劃。

  • Now, Shenzhen is a city of 15 million people,

    現在,深圳是一個擁有1500萬人口的城市。

  • an innovative city, in China.

    一個創新型城市,在中國。

  • And they decided that they were going to move to electric buses.

    而且他們決定要改用電動巴士。

  • And so they required all buses be electric.

    於是他們要求所有的公車都是電動的。

  • In fact, they required parking spots have chargers associated with them.

    事實上,他們要求停車點有相關的充電器。

  • So today, Shenzhen has 18,000 electric buses.

    所以,如今深圳有1.8萬輛電動公車。

  • It has 21,000 electric taxis.

    它擁有21000輛電動計程車。

  • And this goodness didn't just happen.

    而這種美好並不是隨便發生的。

  • It was the result of a thoughtful, written, five-year plan

    這是一個經過深思熟慮的書面五年計劃的結果。

  • that isn't just a kind of campaign promise.

    這不僅僅是一種競選承諾。

  • Executing against these plans is how mayors get promoted, or fired.

    對照這些計劃執行,就是市長們的升遷,或者被解僱的方式。

  • And so it's really deadly serious.

    所以這真的是致命的嚴重。

  • It has to do with carbon, and it has to do with health, with jobs,

    這與碳有關,與健康有關,與就業有關。

  • and with overall economic strength.

    並與整體經濟實力。

  • The bottom line is that China today has 420,000 electric buses.

    最重要的是,中國如今有42萬輛電動公車。

  • America has less than 1,000.

    美國只有不到1000個。

  • So what other national projects are there that you'd like to see?

    那麼還有哪些國家項目是你想看到的呢?

  • HH: So this is a global effort,

    HH:所以這是一個全球性的努力。

  • but not everybody's going to do the same thing,

    但不是每個人都會做同樣的事情。

  • or should do the same thing.

    或應該做同樣的事情。

  • Let me start with Norway.

    讓我先說說挪威。

  • A country that happens to be brilliant at offshore oil,

    一個國家,恰好是海上石油的輝煌。

  • but also understands the consequences of burning more oil.

    但也明白多燒油的後果。

  • They realized they could deploy their skills

    他們意識到他們可以運用自己的技能

  • from their offshore oil development into offshore wind.

    從其海上石油開發進入海上風電。

  • It's a big deal to put wind turbines out in the ocean.

    把風力發電機放在海里是件大事。

  • The ocean, the winds are much stronger,

    海洋,風更大。

  • and the winds are much more constant, not only stronger.

    而且風向更恆定,不僅風力更強。

  • So it balances the grid beautifully.

    所以它能很好地平衡格局。

  • But it's really hard to build things in the deep ocean.

    但在深海里造東西真的很難。

  • Norway's good at it.

    挪威的擅長。

  • So let them take that on.

    所以讓他們來承擔。

  • JD: Are they taking it on?

    JD:他們會接受嗎?

  • HH: They are actually.

    HH:其實他們是。

  • Yeah. It's pretty brilliant.

    是啊,非常棒

  • Another example: India.

    另一個例子。印度。

  • There are hundreds of millions of people in India

    印度有幾億人

  • that don't have access to electricity.

    不通電的地方。

  • With the advances in solar and advances in batteries,

    隨著太陽能的發展和電池的進步。

  • there's no reason they have to build the grid

    他們沒有理由非要建設電網

  • to all those villages that don't have a grid.

    給所有沒有電網的村莊。

  • Skip the steps.

    跳過這些步驟。

  • Skip the dirty steps. Leapfrog to clean.

    跳過骯髒的步驟。躍進式清潔。

  • But this all comes together, in my opinion, in the realm of policy.

    但在我看來,這一切都歸結於政策領域。

  • We need dramatic accelerants, is what you're saying.

    我們需要戲劇性的加速劑,是你說的。

  • Accelerants in R and D, but also accelerants in deployment.

    R和D的加速劑,也是部署的加速劑。

  • Deployment is innovation because deployment drives prices down.

    部署就是創新,因為部署會促使價格下降。

  • The right policy can turn things around,

    正確的政策可以扭轉局面。

  • and we've seen it happen already in the electricity sector.

    我們已經看到它發生在電力部門。

  • So electricity regulators have asked for ever cleaner sources of electricity:

    所以電力監管部門要求不斷清潔電力來源。

  • more renewables, less coal, less natural gas.

    更多的可再生能源,更少的煤炭,更少的天然氣;

  • And it's working.

    而且它的工作。

  • It's working pretty brilliantly, actually.

    事實上,它的工作相當出色。

  • But it's not enough.

    但這還不夠。

  • So the German government recognized the possibility

    所以德國政府認識到了這種可能性

  • of driving down the price of clean energy.

    的,推動清潔能源價格下降。

  • And so they put in orders on the books.

    於是他們把訂單記在賬上。

  • They agreed to pay an extra price for early phases of solar energy,

    他們同意為太陽能的早期階段支付額外的價格。

  • presuming the price would drop.

    假設價格會下跌。

  • They created the demand signal using policy.

    他們利用政策創造了需求信號。

  • The Chinese created a supply signal, also using policy.

    中國人創造了一個供給信號,也是利用政策。

  • They decided that solar was a strategic part of their future economy.

    他們決定,太陽能是他們未來經濟的戰略部分。

  • So you had this unwritten agreement between the two countries,

    所以你們兩國之間有這個不成文的協議。

  • one buying a lot, the other producing a lot,

    一個買了很多,另一個生產了很多。

  • that helped drive the price down 80 percent.

    這有助於推動價格下降80%。

  • We should be doing that with 10 technologies, or a dozen,

    我們應該用10種技術,或者十幾種技術來做。

  • around the world.

    世界各地的。

  • We need policy as the magic sauce

    我們需要政策作為法寶

  • to go through those four sectors in the biggest countries,

    要通過這四個部門在最大的國家。

  • in all countries.

    在所有國家。

  • And one of the things that animates me

    而其中一件事,讓我很興奮

  • is that this requires people who are concerned about climate change,

    是,這需要關注氣候變化的人。

  • which should be everybody,

    這應該是大家。

  • those folks have to apply their energies on the policies that matter

    這些人必須把他們的精力用在重要的政策上。

  • with the decision-makers who matter.

    與重要的決策者一起。

  • If you don't know who the decision-maker is

    如果你不知道誰是決策者

  • to decarbonize the grid,

    以實現電網的低碳化。

  • or to produce electric vehicles in the policy world,

    或在政策界生產電動汽車。

  • you're really not in the game.

    你真的不在遊戲中。

  • JD: Hal, you're an expert in policy.

    JD:哈爾,你是政策方面的專家。

  • I know this because I've read your book --

    我知道這一點,因為我讀過你的書... ...

  • HH: Thanks, John.

    HH:謝謝,約翰。

  • JD: Designing Climate Solutions.

    JD:設計氣候解決方案。

  • What makes for good policy?

    什麼才是好政策?

  • HH: There are some secrets here,

    HH:這裡有一些祕密。

  • and they're really important if we want to solve climate change.

    如果我們想解決氣候變化問題,它們真的很重要。

  • Let me give you two of the secrets.

    讓我給你兩個祕密。

  • First, you have to go where the tons are.

    首先,你得去噸位所在的地方。

  • JD: Follow the tons.

    JD:按照噸。

  • HH: Follow the tons.

    HH:按照噸。

  • And this is such an obvious idea,

    而這是一個如此明顯的想法。

  • but it's amazing how many policies tinker around the edges.

    但令人驚訝的是,很多政策都在邊緣修修補補。

  • I call it green paint.

    我叫它綠色塗料。

  • We don't need green paint. We need green substance.

    我們不需要綠色塗料。我們需要綠色的物質。

  • The second thing is when you set a policy, insist on continuous improvement.

    二是在制定政策時,要堅持持續改進。

  • So what does that mean?

    那麼這意味著什麼呢?

  • Back in 1978, Jerry Brown was the youngest governor in California's history,

    早在1978年,傑裡-布朗是加州歷史上最年輕的州長。

  • and he implemented a thermal building code,

    並且他實施了建築熱工規範。

  • which means when you build a building, it has to have insulation in it.

    這意味著當你建造一棟建築時,它必須有保溫層在裡面。

  • Pretty simple idea.

    很簡單的想法。

  • But he put a trick into that law.

    但他在這個法則中加了一個技巧。

  • He said every three years, the code gets tighter, and tighter, and tighter.

    他說,每隔三年,代碼就會越來越嚴,越來越嚴,越來越嚴。

  • And how do you know how much tighter?

    那你怎麼知道有多緊?

  • Anything that pays for itself in energy savings gets thrown into the code.

    凡是能在節能上得到回報的東西都會被扔進法典。

  • So in the intervening years, we got better insulation,

    所以在這幾年裡,我們的保溫效果更好了。

  • better windows, better furnaces,

    更好的窗戶,更好的爐子。

  • better roofing.

    更好的屋頂。

  • Today, a new California building

    今天,加州的一座新建築

  • uses 80 percent less energy than a pre-code building.

    與未執行標準的建築相比,能耗減少80%。

  • And Jerry Brown used his legislative bandwidth once to draft that policy

    而傑裡-布朗曾經利用他的立法帶寬來起草這項政策。