N is warning that a full scale humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Ethiopia, where a two week conflict in Tigre is threatening to descend into civil war.

N警告說,衣索匹亞正在發生全面的人道主義危機,蒂格雷地區為期兩週的衝突有可能演變成內戰。

Up to 30,000 people have fled a government offensive by Ethiopian forces against Tigres.

多達3萬人逃離衣索匹亞部隊對提格雷人的政府攻勢。

Powerful local leaders.

強大的地方上司。

The TPLF.

TPLF。

Hundreds have died in the fighting.

數百人在戰鬥中死亡。

The government has rejected calls for mediation and had this message earlier.

政府拒絕了調解的呼籲，早前有這樣的消息。

It Z ringleaders.

它Z頭目。

They wouldn't they wouldn't space, they wouldn't they wouldn't hesitate to strike anybody around, eh?

他們不會他們不會空間，他們不會他們會毫不猶豫的打擊周圍的任何人，嗯？

So that they can create havoc and hysteria in Ethiopia and that would result in civil war.

這樣他們就可以在衣索匹亞製造混亂和歇斯底里,從而導致內戰。

So that's why the government had to us to destroy their armaments which have been discovered.

所以這就是為什麼政府要我們銷燬他們的軍備，而這些軍備已經被發現了。

And now we keep on destroying a Z.

而現在我們一直在摧毀一個Z。

We go along well.

我們相處得很好。

It's almost impossible to verify any information from Tigre.

幾乎不可能從提格雷核實任何資訊。

Virtually all communications are blocked thes air, the latest pictures we have from the region.

幾乎所有的通訊都被封鎖了，我們從該地區得到的最新圖片。

This was broadcast on state media.

國家媒體對此進行了播報。

It's said to show celebrations by federal troops arriving into the town of riot Kalamata.

據說是顯示聯邦軍隊到達暴亂的卡拉馬塔鎮的慶祝活動。

The onslaught continues.

衝擊還在繼續。

Earlier, Prime Minister Abiomed warned that a three day deadline for local forces to surrender has now lapsed.

此前，總理阿比奧梅德警告說，當地部隊投降的3天期限現已過期。

He posted this message on Facebook, threatening final enforcement action in the coming days.

他在Facebook上發佈了這條消息，威脅說未來幾天將採取最終的執法行動。

In the past few hours, he said, his troops are marching on the regional capital Michael, which is held by the TPLF and he's claiming significant victories.

他說，在過去的幾個小時裡，他的部隊正在向地區首府邁克爾進軍，該地區由TPLF控制，他聲稱取得了重大勝利。

Five million people live in Tigre and aid agencies warn they're unable to reach those who need help because of the deteriorating security situation.

五百萬人生活在提格雷，援助機構警告說，由於安全局勢惡化，他們無法接觸到那些需要幫助的人。

Here's the UNHCR's assessment of what it's hearing about the situation in Tigre.

以下是難民署對它所聽到的提格雷局勢的評估。

We're needing desperately to have access unhindered, unconditional access to the refugees, but also the other 600,000 among the population of Ethiopians who depend on a humanitarian assistance.

我們迫切需要不受阻礙地、無條件地接觸難民，而且還要接觸衣索匹亞人口中依賴人道主義援助的其他60萬人。

We have had no responses so far.

到目前為止，我們還沒有收到任何答覆。

We also need access to bring in supplies fewer very little food in the market.

我們還需要進入市場，以減少市場上極少的食品帶來的供應。

Cash is non existent because the banks have been closed for weeks now and so it's really a dire humanitarian situation that we're facing that we haven't seen for over two decades in this part of the country.

現金是不存在的，因為銀行已經關閉了幾個星期了，所以我們面臨的嚴峻的人道主義狀況，是我們在這個國家的這個地區20多年來從未見過的。

Well, this is playing out across Ethiopia's border.

嗯，這在衣索匹亞的邊境上也在上演。

The U.

U.

N estimates 4000 refugees are crossing into Suzanne every day and we're told half of them are Children.

N估計每天有4000名難民進入蘇珊娜，我們被告知其中一半是兒童。

This border crossing is now overwhelmed.

這個邊境口岸現在已經不堪重負。

We're told many arriving here are hungry and exhausted from the heat.

據悉，很多到達這裡的人都是飢腸轆轆，熱得筋疲力盡。

Conditions are very poor.

條件非常差。

There's no electricity or clean water.

沒有電，也沒有乾淨的水。

On this is the Um Recoba camp, which once housed refugees during Ethiopia's famine in the eighties.

這上面是烏姆雷科巴難民營，它曾經在80年代衣索匹亞饑荒期間收容過難民。

It's been closed since the two thousands, but it's now reopened to cope with the influx.

自兩千以來，它一直處於關閉狀態，但現在已經重新開放，以應對湧入的人群。

Here's another UNHCR spokesperson, Dana Hughes, assessing the situation in Sudan because this is an area that hasn't seen displacement.

這裡是聯合國難民署的另一位發言人達納-休斯對蘇丹的情況進行評估，因為這裡是一個沒有出現流離失所的地區。

As I said in well over a decade, almost two.

就像我說的十多年來，差不多兩年了。

This is an area where we had a reception center for about 300 people and now it's trying to, you know, keep track of at least and help about 15,000 people.

這是一個地區，我們有一個接待中心 約300人，現在它試圖，你知道，保持跟蹤 至少並幫助約15000人。

With more people coming, we have taken immediate steps, working with the Sudanese government to try and and provide assistance.

隨著越來越多的人到來，我們已經立即採取措施，與蘇丹政府合作，嘗試並提供援助。

We've identified a site about 80 kilometers away from the border that we're trying Teoh a t least set up a settlement or a camp someplace where people can go so we can give them immediate assistance.

我們已經確定了一個離邊境80公里遠的地方 我們正試圖在那裡建立一個安置點或一個營地 人們可以去的地方，這樣我們就可以給他們提供即時的援助。

Well, the refugees from Tiger I are also reporting horrific accounts of the violence in the region, including street shootings and machete killings.

好吧，虎一的難民也在報告該地區的暴力事件，包括街頭槍擊和大砍刀殺戮的恐怖描述。

Here's Donahues again I think that this happened so quickly that the refugees that were talking to their stunned there's a woman that we interviewed and she talked about how less than a week ago her life was fairly normal and for five days she's been searching for her husband.

這裡又是多納胡斯，我認為這件事發生得太快了，以至於和他們談話的難民都驚呆了，有一個女人，我們採訪了她，她談到不到一個星期前，她的生活還算正常，五天來她一直在尋找她的丈夫。

She had to grab her Children and people just ran.

她不得不抓住她的孩子，人們就這樣跑了。

They ran with really nothing more than than what was on their backs.

他們奔跑的時候，其實只是背上的東西。

So I think at this point what people are hoping for is peace and and to be safe and to be secure well, Beverly coaching is our sub Saharan security analyst in Nairobi.

所以我想在這一點上，人們希望的是和平，希望的是安全，希望的是安全好，貝弗利教練是我們在內羅畢的撒哈拉以南安全分析師。

Beverly.

貝弗利

How reliable is the information we're guessing from?

我們所猜測的資訊有多可靠？

T grime?

T大叫？

What more do we know about what's going on there?

我們對那裡的情況還有什麼瞭解？

Well, the latest appears to be that Ethiopian forces have been able to make victories in eastern and Western Tegra and are advancing towards Mecca Lee.

嗯，最新的情況似乎是，衣索匹亞軍隊已經能夠在東部和西部泰格拉取得勝利，並且正在向麥加李推進。

Yesterday, diplomatic sources said that there had been bombings in the capital medically, but then Ethiopia has denied this in another statement and said that it is making position strikes and there have been no civilian casualties.

昨天，外交消息稱，首都發生了醫療爆炸事件，但隨後衣索匹亞又發表聲明予以否認，並稱正在進行陣地打擊，沒有平民傷亡。

But we can see thousands of people are fleeing the conflict and the kind of stories coming out from U.

但是，我們可以看到成千上萬的人正在逃離衝突，以及從烏市傳出的那種故事。

N.

N.

Agencies and even those arriving in Sudan are quite terrifying.

機構，甚至到達蘇丹的人都相當可怕。

It's you appear on its part, seems to be very keen to control the narrative of the conflict.

這是你出現在它的一部分，似乎是非常熱衷於控制衝突的敘事。

It started a new Twitter account, which issues daily updates.

它啟動了一個新的Twitter賬戶，每天發佈更新。

It's called State of Emergency Fact, but it's difficult to corroborate or independently verify that information integrate officials have made use of the state TVs issue statements not so much updates from the front line, but from rhetoric on the potential impact of the crisis, both for Ethiopia and the region and also to issue threats.

這就是所謂的緊急狀態事實，但很難證實或獨立驗證資訊集成官員利用國家電視臺發佈聲明，不是來自前線的更新，而是來自危機的潛在影響的言論，無論是對衣索匹亞還是該地區，也是為了發出威脅。

But it doesn't seem as though they will be anything that will either focus on the humanitarian aspect of it, or it will just cover that up.

但似乎他們不會是什麼人，要麼是注重人道主義方面，要麼就是掩蓋這個問題。

And most of what we're seeing is just a strong building.

而我們所看到的大多隻是一棟堅固的建築。

Was a most violent country on what defense capabilities Beverly does this local force, the TPLF have?

是一個最暴力的國家，靠的是什麼防禦能力貝弗利這支地方勢力，土聯有什麼能力？

How strong are they?

他們有多強？

So the Northern command, which sparked off the conflict after the TPLF attacked it, is said to be one of the most well equipped.

所以，在蒂格雷人陣襲擊北方指揮部後，引發衝突的北方指揮部據說是裝備最精良的指揮部之一。

Of course, there's very little clarity on what is there, but it makes sense because the TPLF had been the governing force for many years, nearly 27 years.

當然，這裡面的內容也不太清楚，但這也是有道理的，因為蒂格雷人民解放陣線已經執政多年，將近27年了。

But then tplf strategy is probably more off concern.

但隨後tplf策略可能更多的是關關注。

It's creating what seems to be a long, drawn out conflict.

這就造成了似乎是一個長期的、拉鋸式的衝突。

When Prime Minister Abby announced the operation, he said that there would be limited aims.

當艾比總理宣佈這一行動時，他說目標有限。

But then the TPLF forces managed to fire into a smart over the weekend.

但週末，土聯部隊卻成功向智能開火。

They also find the Amhara region, which shows the potential event brewing in tow, a bigger conflict and drawing in many acts.

他們還找到了阿姆哈拉地區，這表明潛在的事件正在醞釀中，更大的衝突和吸引許多行為。

Other, more people left leaders very experienced in warfare.

別的，更多的人留下的上司很有戰爭經驗。

When you think about the retreat, if Europe your border war in 1998 to 2000 or even the 19 seventies, fighting against the dog and being able to coordinate that kind of power, so it is quite a strategic and experience threat.

當你想到退路的時候，如果歐洲你的邊境戰爭在1998年到2000年，甚至是1970年代，打狗還能協調那種力量，所以它是相當有戰略和經驗的威脅。

Beverly stay with us for the moment.

貝弗利暫時和我們在一起

But this, of course happen doesn't come out of the blue.

但這種情況，當然發生並不是憑空而來。

Tensions have been building for years between the federal government on the Tigre People's Liberation Front, which runs to cry that came to a head back in September when the government postponed national elections.

聯邦政府與蒂格雷人民解放陣線之間的緊張關係已持續多年，該陣線跑到9月份政府延後全國大選時的哭聲達到了頂點。

The TPLF defied the ban.

蒂格雷人陣不顧禁令。

It held a vote anyway, that was declared illegal.

反正它舉行了投票，那是被宣佈為非法的。

Now the TPLF sees the federal government is illegitimate, accusing Prime Minister A.

現在蒂格雷人民解放陣線認為聯邦政府是不合法的，指責總理阿。

B.

B.

Ahmed of trying to extend his time in office on.

艾哈邁德的試圖延長他的任職時間，在。

That's a charge Mr Abby denies.

艾比先生否認了這一指控。

Here's the analysis of Calculon you belittle in Addis Ababa on what support he has in the initial phase.

下面分析一下Calculon你在亞的斯亞貝巴輕視他在初始階段有什麼支持。

Off his his tenure, he seemed to enjoy wide popularity.

關他的任期，他似乎享有廣泛的人氣。

But that appeared to have dwindled now and since, since this conflict broke out to be enjoying some popular support, at least for the military invasive.

但現在看來，自從這場衝突爆發以來，至少在軍事入侵方面，享受到了一些民眾的支持，這一點似乎已經減少了。

For example, in the capital earlier today, there were calls by his administration to show support for the defense forces for the armed forces, and there was a lot off the clapping and shouting and screaming and singing.

比如今天早些時候在京城，就有他的政府號召大家支持國防軍支持武裝力量，拍手叫好，叫好唱衰。

People were expressing their their support well.

人們很好地表達了他們的支持。

Last year, the prime minister, Abu Hamad, was celebrated worldwide when he won the Nobel Peace Prize.

去年，阿布-哈馬德總理獲得諾貝爾和平獎，舉世矚目。

When he accepted the award, he called War the epitome of hell.

當他接受這個獎項時，他稱戰爭是地獄的縮影。

The Financial Times tells us how this is playing out now.

金融時報》告訴我們，現在這一切是如何進行的。

The declaration of hostilities is likely to further undermine, if not destroy, his fading reputation as a leader who can unite Ethiopia under the banner off liberal democracy.

宣佈敵對行動很可能會進一步損害、甚至摧毀他作為一個能夠在自由民主的旗幟下團結衣索匹亞的領導人的聲譽。

Let's go back to Beverly or Chen Beverly.

讓我們回到貝弗利或陳貝弗利。

What a difference a year makes.

一年的時間是多麼的不同。

Well, yeah, that's certainly true.

嗯，是的，那當然是真的。

I mean, it seems as though his credentials are severely eroding.

我的意思是，好像他的資歷被嚴重侵蝕了。

And over the period where he's had tensions with the TPLF has been very strong rhetoric coming from him.

而在他與蒂格雷人陣關係緊張的這段時間裡，一直有非常強烈的言論從他口中說出。

And right now he has rejected any calls for talks than many people expected.

而現在他拒絕任何談判的呼籲，比很多人預想的還要多。

That he would perhaps gave the way for talks.

他或許會給會談鋪路。

He seemed like a reform is when he came into power.

他好像是改革是他上臺的時候。

But I because many of the changes that he was implementing, including to the political system and postponing the election it raised a lot of political tensions.

但我因為他實施的許多變革，包括對政治制度和延後選舉，它引起了很多政治上的緊張。

And in some ways, this conflict was giving into the kind of rhetoric that was brewing over all these months and perhaps a bit of a let down for many who felt that he was going to be a change.

而從某種程度上來說，這種衝突是讓人看到了這幾個月來醞釀的那種言論，或許對於很多覺得他要改變的人來說，有點失望。

Me, Beverly, thank you very much.

我，貝弗利，非常感謝你。