Abiomed insists his country will not descend into chaos.

阿比奧梅德堅持認為他的國家不會陷入混亂。

That's despite reports off heavy casualties in fighting between the military and regional forces in Ethiopia's to grind region that's in the north of the country near the border to Eritrea now.

儘管有報道稱，在衣索匹亞北部靠近厄立特里亞邊境的地區，軍方和地區部隊之間的戰鬥傷亡慘重。

Ethiopia's federal government launched the offensive against forces off the to Dry People's Liberation Front last Wednesday, blaming them for an attack on a military base.

上週三，衣索匹亞聯邦政府對至幹人民解放陣線附近的部隊發起進攻，指責他們襲擊了一個軍事基地。

Now the TPLF party dominated Ethiopian politics for decades.

現在，蒂格雷人民解放陣線黨主宰衣索匹亞政治幾十年。

That was until Abby Ahmed came into office in 2018.

直到2018年Abby Ahmed上任。

Since then, the two dry leadership has claimed the federal government is unfairly targeting their ethnic group in corruption crackdowns.

此後，兩幹上司聲稱聯邦政府在打擊腐敗時不公平地針對他們的族群。

For his part, RB accuses the TPLF off attempting to destabilize the country, intent on perpetuating a culture off infinity and restoring the undue privilege they enjoyed in the past.

而RB則指責蒂格雷人民解放陣線企圖破壞國家的穩定，意圖延續一種無限的文化，並恢復他們過去享有的不正當特權。

The typical left All guards have continuously mounted boss covered and over attempts to undermine the people off Ethiopia in our new administration.

典型的左翼衛兵不斷地裝上老闆罩，並試圖在我們的新政府中破壞衣索匹亞人民的利益。

Now that's a great leadership, have promised to continue fighting until the federal government agrees to negotiate.

現在這是一個偉大的上司，已經答應繼續戰鬥，直到聯邦政府同意談判。

But members of parliament in Addis Ababa say they do not recognize the TPLF as a legitimate administration and have voted to abolish the state government For more on this, I'm joined by William Davidson.

但亞的斯亞貝巴的議員們說，他們不承認蒂格雷人民解放陣線是一個合法的政府，並且已經投票決定廢除州政府。 更多內容，我將和William Davidson一起報道。

He's a senior analyst for Ethiopia at the Crisis Group.

他是危機組織衣索匹亞的高級分析師。

He joins me from EDIs.

他從EDIs加入我。

Welcome, William.

歡迎，威廉

What more do we know about the military operation and away in to dry?

我們還知道什麼軍事行動和離在幹？

Well, we know that the fighting is concentrated in west to gray.

好吧，我們知道，戰鬥是集中在西部到灰色。

That's where the Federal forces primarily entered from Amhara Region s.

這就是聯邦部隊主要從阿姆哈拉地區進入的地方。

So there's some sort of active engagement in West Tigray.

所以在西提格雷有某種積極的參與。

Reports of significant Well, it's fairly significant casualties coming into Amhara health clinics, mostly off federal troops.

據報道，阿姆哈拉衛生診所的傷亡相當大，大部分都是聯邦軍隊造成的。

But it may well be the case that Tigre and casualties are being treated in Tigre, and it was very limited information coming out of Tigre because of the communications blackout.

但很可能是提格雷和傷亡人員在提格雷接受治療，由於通訊中斷，從提格雷傳出的資訊非常有限。

Other than that, no reported recent new active engagements.

除此之外，沒有報告說最近有新的活動。

But the word the air strikes and military targets around Mukalla, the capital of too great A couple of days ago, William, what's the feeling around whether or not regional leaders integrate?

但字的空襲和軍事目標周圍的穆卡拉，首都太偉大了幾天前，威廉，圍繞地區領導人是否整合，有什麼感覺？

I have left Prime Minister A.

我已經離開了A總理。

B.

B.

Ahmed no choice but to send the military in Well, that's obviously the view from the federal government on DSA, Porters of the military intervention very much.

艾哈邁德別無選擇，只能派軍隊進駐 嗯，這顯然是聯邦政府對DSA的看法，波特斯的軍事幹預非常多。

The narrative is that your ground forces attacked a military base on also in the west of Tigre and also around Mecca Lay the regional capital on.

講述的是，你的地面部隊襲擊了一個軍事基地，在也在提格雷西部，也在麥加周圍奠定了地區資本上。

They say that's just simply unacceptable.

他們說，這簡直是不可接受的。

But I think the key point to understand here is that you know there is this communications blackout integrate.

但是我覺得這裡要理解的關鍵點是，你知道有這個通信停電集成。

It's being very hard to verify information on.

這是被很難核實資訊的。

Also, there is a long political build up to this conflict where there is a possibility on both sides to have taken measures to avoid a part of conflict that didn't occur.

另外，這場衝突有一個長期的政治積累，雙方都有可能採取了措施，避免了一部分沒有發生的衝突。

Way ended up in the situation where regional and federal governments called each other unlawful, and that's what led to the conflict.

方式最終導致了地區政府和聯邦政府互稱非法的局面，這才導致了衝突的發生。

And how close does this conflict bring Ethiopia to a civil war?

而這場衝突使衣索匹亞離內戰有多近？

Well, I think that depends on your definition off Civil war again the federal government is is talking about This is a sort of, you know, sort of limited law enforcement operation simply to remove the TPLF leadership, the leadership of Tigray region.

我想這取決於你對內戰的定義 聯邦政府說的是，你知道，這是一種有限的執法行動，只是為了清除TPLF的領導層，Tigray地區的領導層。

Um but the problem, of course, is that that regional leadership is in command of a powerful regional security apparatus.

嗯，但問題是，當然，該地區的上司是在一個強大的地區安全機構的指揮。

Elements of the federal military integrate seemed to have sided with the Tigre government.

聯邦軍方整編人員似乎站在了蒂格雷政府一邊。

Or at least they're not supporting the federal intervention S O.

或者至少他們不支持聯邦干預S O。

That means that we actually have a very serious and potentially sustained clash.

這意味著，我們實際上有一個非常嚴重的、潛在的持續衝突。

Eso It's not a full blown civil war.

埃索這不是一場全面的內戰。

It's certainly not crossing anything like the whole of Ethiopia.

當然，它的穿越範圍並不像整個衣索匹亞。

But it is a very serious clash between the federal government on what is a relatively well armed regional government.

但在武裝相對完善的地區政府上，聯邦政府之間的衝突是非常嚴重的。

And some people would obviously classify that as a civil war in and of itself, right?

而有些人顯然會把這本身就歸為內戰，對吧？

And could this be resolved diplomatically?

那能不能通過外交途徑解決呢？

If so, what kind of compromises would need to be made?

如果是這樣，需要做出什麼樣的妥協？

Well, of course, there is always hope that these things could be solved diplomatically.

當然，這些事情總是有希望通過外交途徑解決的。

And there's certainly efforts both within Ethiopia and outside to encourage the parties on to come to the negotiating table.

衣索匹亞內外肯定都在努力鼓勵各方回到談判桌前。

And we know it's certain preconditions.

而且我們知道這是一定的前提條件。

That's something which the degree of leadership is willing to do.

這是上司程度願意做的事情。

The problem is that the parties on these parties were formally part of the same ruling coalition on then.

問題是，這些黨派在當時正式屬於同一個執政聯盟。

Since 2018, they have gradually grown into bitter opponents, ending up with this very stark constitutional debate over the legitimacy off Tigre, running its own regional election now they have entered the conflict phase.

自2018年以來，他們逐漸成長為激烈的對手，最後以這場非常鮮明的憲法辯論結束，關於蒂格雷的合法性，現在他們已經進入衝突階段，進行自己的地區選舉。

So at the moment there is no none of the warring parties air really pursuing a negotiated solution.

是以，目前交戰各方都沒有真正尋求談判解決。

The first step, I think to do so would be some sort of immediate, unconditional ceasefire.

我認為，要做到這一點，第一步就是立即實現某種無條件的停火。

Then the parties would have to agree that they are at least legitimate enough authorities, um, to talk to each other because at the moment they are simply treating each other as enemy competent.

那麼，雙方就必須同意，他們至少是足夠合法的當局，嗯，可以互相對話，因為此刻他們只是把對方當作敵方主管。

So we need to get re past that stage to get some sort of talks going.

所以，我們需要重新度過這個階段，進行某種形式的會談。

At the moment, it doesn't look likely, but who knows?

目前看來，可能性不大，但誰知道呢？

If the conflict gets protracted, hopefully both sides will start looking more seriously.

如果衝突曠日持久，希望雙方都能開始認真看待。

The prospects of dialogue and international community and the regional leaders can help put pressure on the parties to do that.

對話的前景以及國際社會和區域領導人可以幫助向各方施加壓力，使其這樣做。

All right, that's crisis groups.

好了，這就是危機組織。

William Davidson in Addis Ababa.

威廉-戴維森在亞的斯亞貝巴。

Thank you, William.

謝謝你，威廉