you'll hear a lot of this:

你會聽到很多這個。

“What do the national polls look like?”

"全國的民調是什麼樣子的？"

“Hillary Clinton's national lead…”

"希拉里-克林頓的全國領先優勢..."

“Nationally, Joe Biden is currently ahead.”

"在全國範圍內，喬-拜登目前領先。"

But these national polls don't actually tell you who's going to win.

但這些全國性的民調其實並不能告訴你誰會贏。

“Throw the national polls out the window, they don't matter at all.

"把全國性的民調扔到窗外，它們根本不重要。

What matters are those swing states.”

重要的是那些搖擺州。"

Ah yes. The swing states.

啊，是的。搖擺州。

Most democracies around the world elect their head of state with a popular vote:

世界上大多數民主國家的國家元首都是由民選產生的。

So, whoever gets the most votes wins.

所以，誰的票數多誰就贏。

But in America we do it a little differently.

但在美國，我們的做法有些不同。

The US is the only country that picks its president

美國是唯一一個挑選總統的國家。

using something called the Electoral College.

使用一種叫做選舉團的東西。

It's made up of delegates from each US state.

它是由美國各州的代表組成的。

When Americans vote for president, what they're actually voting for,

當美國人投票給總統的時候，他們到底在投什麼。

is who their state will vote for.

是他們國家會投給誰。

This is why, every so often, someone wins the presidency

這就是為什麼每隔一段時間，就會有人贏得總統職位的原因

without winning the popular vote.

在沒有贏得民眾投票的情況下，。

That's happened twice in just the past 20 years.

這在過去20年裡就發生了兩次。

The majority of Americans do not like this system, and haven't for a long time.

大多數美國人不喜歡這種制度，而且很長時間以來都不喜歡。

Both political parties have made attempts to get rid of it.

兩個政黨都曾試圖擺脫它。

So why does the US still use the Electoral College?

那麼，為什麼美國還在使用選舉團？

And who actually benefits from it?

那到底是誰從中受益呢？

The Electoral College is based on how people are represented in Congress:

選舉團是基於人民在國會中的代表方式。

where each state has a number of representatives based on its population,

其中，每個州根據其人口有一定數量的代表。

and every state also gets two senators.

而每個州也有兩個參議員。

So, for example, let's look at Texas, which has a huge population,

那麼，舉個例子，我們看看人口眾多的德州。

and Vermont, which has a really small one.

和佛蒙特州，它有一個非常小的。

Texas has 36 representatives in Congress. Vermont only gets one.

德州在國會有36名代表。佛蒙特州只有一名。

Representatives in both states each represent

兩個州的代表分別代表

roughly the same number of people.

大致相同數量的人。

In the Electoral College, a state gets the same number of delegates

在選舉團中，每個州獲得相同數量的代表。

as their Congressional representatives, plus two — for each senator.

作為他們的國會代表，再加上兩個----每個參議員。

So Texas has 38 electoral votes. Vermont has 3.

所以德州有38張選舉人票佛蒙特州有3張

But this combination makes the number of people each delegate represents

但這樣的組合使得每個代表所代表的人數是

way different between states:

各州之間的不同方式。

In Texas, one electoral delegate represents three times the amount of people

在得克薩斯州，一名選舉代表代表著三倍的人口數量。

as one in Vermont.

作為佛蒙特州的一個。

And that makes each individual person's vote in Vermont a lot more influential.

而這也使得每個人在佛蒙特州的選票影響力大增。

The Electoral College creates discrepancies like this all over the country.

選舉團在全國各地製造這樣的差異。

A voter in Wyoming is worth three and a half times as much as a voter in California.

一個懷俄明州的選民的價值是加州選民的三倍半。

The winner of the presidential election is the candidate who gets 270 or more

總統選舉的獲勝者是獲得270票以上的候選人。

of these Electoral College votes.

在這些選舉團票中，。

These are the results of the 2016 election, by state.

這些是2016年各州的選舉結果。

You're probably more familiar with this version of it: a map of red states, and blue states.

你可能更熟悉這個版本：一張紅州、藍州的地圖。

But this chart tells a different story. You can see that no state is actually all-red or all-blue.

但這張圖告訴我們一個不同的故事。你可以看到，其實沒有一個州是全紅或全藍的。

But almost every state awards its electoral votes the same way:

但幾乎每個州都以同樣的方式頒發選舉票。

The candidate who gets the most votes in a state, gets ALL its electoral votes.

在一個州獲得最多選票的候選人，獲得所有選舉人票。

If they win the state by 1%, they win 100% of the electoral votes.

如果他們以1%的優勢贏得該州，他們就能贏得100%的選舉人票。

In 2016, more than 4 million people voted for Donald Trump in California.

2016年，加州有400多萬人投票給唐納德-特朗普。

In fact, more people voted for him there than in any other state except for two.

事實上，除了兩個州外，那裡投給他的人比其他任何州都多。

But it didn't matter. Hillary Clinton got more votes there,

但這並不重要。希拉里-克林頓在那裡得到了更多的選票。

so she got all 55 of its electoral votes.

所以她得到了所有55張選舉票。

Clinton never even campaigned in California. Polling showed she'd easily win the state.

克林頓甚至從未在加州進行過競選活動。民調顯示她很容易贏得該州。

Trump only visited Texas once; he knew he basically had that state's electoral votes locked.

特朗普只去了一次德克薩斯州，他知道自己基本鎖定了該州的選舉人票。

But they both visited Florida, 35 or more times.

但他們都去過佛羅里達，35次或更多。

That's because Florida is usually a “swing state”:

這是因為佛羅里達州通常是一個 "搖擺州"。

Polls show that the vote there could swing to one party or another in nearly every election.

民調顯示，那裡的選票幾乎在每次選舉中都可能搖擺到一個政黨或另一個政黨。

Trump only won it in 2016 by 100,000 votes, out of more than 9 million.

特朗普在2016年僅以10萬票的優勢，從900多萬票中勝出。

Swing states have changed over time, thanks to shifting demographics and political views.

由於人口結構和政治觀點的變化，搖擺州已經隨著時間的推移發生了變化。

And it's states like these where presidential candidates

正是在這樣的州，總統候選人們

spend most of their time campaigning.

把大部分時間花在競選上。

It also means these states have way more influence over the election than these ones.

這也意味著這些州對選舉的影響力比這些州大得多。

A study found that voters in Michigan had 51 times the amount of influence on the 2016 election

一項研究發現，密歇根州的選民對2016年大選的影響力是其51倍。

as someone from a state like Utah.

作為一個來自猶他州的人。

Voters in states like California, or Missouri, mattered very little.

加利福尼亞州或密蘇里州等州的選民關係不大。

Swing states are where the election actually takes place.

搖擺州是選舉實際發生的地方。

They get the attention and the influence.

他們得到了關注和影響。

And they only exist because of the Electoral College.

而他們之所以存在，只是因為選舉團。

It doesn't seem very fair.

這似乎不太公平。

But the Electoral College has always shifted power

但選舉團一直在轉移權力。

away from some people and towards others.

遠離一些人，走向另一些人。

It's how it was designed.

這就是它的設計。

Back when there were just a few states, not 50,

當年只有幾個州，不是50個州。

they had to get all the states to agree on the Constitution.

他們必須讓所有的州同意憲法。

One problem: The Northern states, which were largely anti-slavery,

有一個問題：北方各州，基本上都是反奴隸制的。

wanted only free people to count in the population towards electoral votes.

希望只有自由民才能被計算在人口中，以獲得選舉票。

Which they had more of.

他們有更多的。

The pro-slavery Southern states were worried that they would be constantly outvoted,

支持奴隸制的南方各州擔心他們會不斷被淘汰。

and wanted enslaved people to count in determining the population.

並希望在確定人口時將被奴役的人計算在內。

As a compromise, they settled on something called the “three-fifths clause.“

作為一種妥協，他們決定採用一種叫做 "五分之三條款 "的東西。

It established that an enslaved person would only count as 3/5 of a person.

它規定，被奴役的人只能算作一個人的3/5。

In 1800, Pennsylvania, a northern state, and Virginia, a southern one,

1800年，北方的賓夕法尼亞州和南方的弗吉尼亞州。

had about the same number of free people living there.

有大約相同數量的自由人生活在那裡。

But Virginia was also home to hundreds of thousands of enslaved people,

但弗吉尼亞州也是幾十萬被奴役者的家園。

who had no freedom, let alone a vote,

誰沒有自由，更不用說投票了。

and ended up with more votes in the Electoral College than Pennsylvania.

並最終在選舉團中獲得了比賓夕法尼亞州更多的選票。

That year, those extra electoral votes gave the candidate from Virginia just enough to win.

那一年，這些額外的選舉人票讓來自弗吉尼亞州的候選人剛剛好贏得了勝利。

Even after the US finally abolished slavery,

即使在美國最終廢除了奴隸制之後。

and eventually gave Black Americans the right to vote,

並最終給予美國黑人投票權。

White Southern leaders found ways to keep them from voting,

南方白人領袖想方設法阻止他們投票。

like with discriminating laws like poll taxes, and acts of violence.

像人頭稅這樣的歧視性法律，以及暴力行為。

This meant they continued to have overrepresentation in the Electoral College

這意味著他們在選舉團中的代表性仍然過高。

on behalf of a large population that couldn't vote.

代表大量無法投票的民眾。

The first time Congress attempted to replace the Electoral College with a simple popular vote

國會首次嘗試用簡單的民眾投票取代選舉團。

was back in 1816.

是早在1816年。

But senators from Southern states blocked it,

但來自南方各州的參議員們阻止了這一做法。

saying it would be “deeply injurious” to them.

說，這將對他們造成 "極大的傷害"。

In 1969, Congress came even closer:

1969年，國會更加接近。

replacing the Electoral College had support in both parties,

取代選舉團的方案得到了兩黨的支持。

and even passed the House.

甚至通過了眾議院。

But it was blocked again by Southern senators.

但又遭到南方參議員的阻撓。

A senator from Alabama wrote,

一位來自阿拉巴馬州的參議員寫道：

“The Electoral College is one of the South's few remaining political safeguards.

"選舉團是南方僅存的幾個政治保障之一。

Let's keep it.”

讓我們保持它。"

Why change a system that historically had, and still was benefiting White Southerners?

為什麼要改變一個歷史上曾經而且現在仍在造福南方白人的制度？

Today, the states that the Electoral College benefits have changed,

如今，選舉團受益的州已經發生了變化。

but it's still making some voters more powerful than others.

但它仍然使一些選民比其他選民更強大。

If we look at the states with a lot of electoral votes, for not a lot of people,

如果我們看一下選舉人票數多的州，對於不多的人。

and the states with a little electoral votes, for a lot of people,

和有一點選舉人票的州，對很多人來說。

these states are a lot whiter and less diverse than the rest of America.

這些州比美國其他地區要白得多，也不那麼多樣化。

And many of these states are Republican strongholds.

而其中很多州都是共和黨的大本營。

These tend to vote Democratic.

這些人傾向於投票給民主黨。

That's one reason the two most recent Republican presidents

這也是最近兩任共和黨總統的一個原因。

have won the Electoral College without winning the popular vote.

在沒有贏得民選票的情況下贏得了選舉團。

And since it's currently Democrats that are primarily disadvantaged by the Electoral College,

而由於目前主要是民主黨人在選舉團中處於劣勢。

they're the ones leading the charge to replace it with a popular vote.

他們是那些領先的充電 取而代之的大眾投票。

“Get rid of the Electoral College, and every vote counts.”

"取消選舉團，每一票都很重要。"

But as politics have changed, the people most critical of the Electoral College have, too.

但隨著政治的變化，最責備選舉團的人也變了。

In the 1948 presidential election, New York ended up being the major swing state.

在1948年的總統選舉中，紐約最終成為主要的搖擺州。

A Congressman from Texas said, “I have no objection to the Negro in Harlem voting.

一位來自德克薩斯州的議員說："我不反對哈林區的黑人投票。

But I do resent the fact that his vote is worth a hundred times as much...

但我確實不喜歡他的票值一百倍的事實......。

as the vote of a white man in Texas.”

作為德克薩斯州一個白人的選票。"

Swing states change.

搖擺狀態變化。

What doesn't, is that the Electoral College gives certain people more power to pick the president.

沒有的，是選舉團給了某些人更多的權力來挑選總統。

And its biggest defenders have always been those who benefit the most from it.

而其最大的維護者始終是那些從中受益最大的人。