China has announced plans for an inhabited South Pole station

中國宣佈計劃在南極建立一個有人居住的車站

by the 2030s,

到2030年代。

and the United States has an official road map

和美國有一個正式的路線圖

seeking an increasing number of people living and working in space.

尋求越來越多的人在空間生活和工作，

This will start with NASA's Artemis program,

這將從NASA的Artemis計劃開始。

an international program to send the first woman and the next man

送走第一個女人和下一個男人的國際方案。

to the Moon this decade.

到月球的這十年。

Billionaires and the private sector are getting involved

億萬富翁和私人部門正在參與其中。

in unprecedented ways.

以前所未有的方式。

There are over a hundred launch companies around the world

全世界有一百多家發射公司。

and roughly a dozen private lunar transportation companies

和大約十幾傢俬營月球運輸公司的合作

readying robotic missions to the lunar surface.

準備對月球表面進行機器人任務。

We have reusable rockets for the first time in human history.

我們在人類歷史上第一次擁有了可重複使用的火箭。

This will enable the development of infrastructure

這將使基礎設施的發展成為可能。

and utilization of resources.

和資源的利用。

While estimates vary, scientists think

雖然估計值不同，但科學家認為

there could be up to a billion metric tons of water ice on the Moon.

月球上可能有多達10億公噸的水冰。

That's greater than the size of Lake Erie,

這比伊利湖的面積還要大。

and enough water to support perhaps hundreds of thousands of people

和足夠的水，也許可以養活幾十萬人。

living and working on the Moon.

在月球上生活和工作。

So although official plans are always evolving,

所以雖然官方的計劃一直在發展。

there's real reason to think that we could see people

有真正的理由認為，我們可以看到的人

starting to live and work on the Moon

開始在月球上生活和工作

in the next decade.

在未來十年，。

However, the Moon is roughly the size of the continent of Africa,

不過，月球的面積大約相當於非洲大陸的面積。

and we're starting to see that the key resources

我們開始看到，關鍵的資源。

may be concentrated in small areas

可能集中在小範圍內

near the poles.

靠近兩極的地方。

This raises important questions about coordinating access to scarce resources.

這就提出了協調獲取稀缺資源的重要問題。

And there are also legitimate questions about going to the Moon:

而且關於登月的問題也是合理的。

colonialism, cultural heritage

殖民主義、文化遺產

and reproducing the systemic inequalities of today's capitalism.

並再現了當今資本主義的制度性不平等。

And more to the point:

而更重要的是。

Don't we have enough big challenges here on Earth?

我們在地球上面臨的大挑戰還不夠多嗎？

Internet governance, pandemics, terrorism and, perhaps most importantly,

互聯網治理、大流行病、恐怖主義，也許最重要的是。

climate crisis and biodiversity loss.

氣候危機和生物多樣性喪失；

In some senses,

從某種意義上講：

the idea of the Moon as just a destination

月球只是一個目的地

embodies these problematic qualities.

體現了這些問題的特質。

It conjures a frontier attitude

它讓人聯想到邊疆的態度

of conquest,

征服的。

big rockets and expensive projects,

大火箭和昂貴的項目。

competition and winning.

競爭和勝利。

But what's most interesting about the Moon

但月球上最有趣的是什麼？

isn't the billionaires with their rockets

是不是億萬富翁們用他們的火箭。

or the same old power struggle between states.

還是國家之間老一套的權力鬥爭。

In fact, it's not the hardware at all.

其實，這根本不是硬件的問題。

It's the software.

是軟件的問題。

It's the norms, customs and laws.

是規範、習俗和法律。

It's our social technologies.

是我們的社會技術。

And it's the opportunity to update our democratic institutions

而這也是我們更新民主制度的機會

and the rule of law

法治

to respond to a new era of planetary-scale challenges.

應對新時代的全球規模挑戰。

I'm going to tell you about how the Moon can be a canvas

我要告訴你月球是如何成為畫布的

for solving some of our biggest challenges here on Earth.

為解決我們在地球上的一些最大的挑戰。

I've been kind of obsessed with this topic since I was a teenager.

我從十幾歲開始就有點迷戀這個話題了。

I've spent the last two decades working on international space policy,

在過去的二十年裡，我一直在研究國際空間政策。

but also on small community projects with bottom-up governance design.

但在小型社區項目上，也有自下而上的治理設計。

When I was 17,

我17歲的時候

I went to a UN conference on the peaceful uses of outer space

我參加了聯合國和平利用外層空間會議。

in Vienna.

在維也納。

Over two weeks, 160 young people from over 60 countries

在兩週時間裡，來自60多個國家的160名青年。

were crammed into a big hotel next to the UN building.

擠在聯合國大樓旁邊的一家大旅館裡。

We were invited to make recommendations

請我們提出建議

to Member States

給會員國的報告

about the role of space in humanity's future.

關於空間在人類未來的作用。

After the conference,

會議結束後。

some of us were so inspired

我們中的一些人是如此的鼓舞

that we actually decided to keep living together.

我們居然決定繼續住在一起。

Now, living with 20 people might sound kind of crazy,

現在，和20個人生活在一起可能聽起來有點瘋狂。

but over the years, it enabled us to create a high-trust group

但多年來，它使我們創建了一個高信任度的集團。

that allowed us to experiment with these social technologies.

使我們能夠對這些社交技術進行實驗。

We designed governance systems ranging from assigning a CEO

我們設計的治理體系包括任命首席執行官、首席執行官和首席執行官。

to using a jury process.

使用陪審團程序。

And as we grew into our careers,

而隨著我們事業的發展。

and we moved from DC think tanks to working for NASA

我們從華盛頓的智囊團轉到了NASA工作

to starting our own companies,

到創辦我們自己的公司。

these experiments enabled us to see

這些實驗使我們能夠看到

how even small groups could be a petri dish

小團體也能成為培養皿。

for important societal questions such as representation,

代表權等重要社會問題。

sustainability or opportunity.

可持續性或機會；

People often talk about the Moon as a petri dish

人們常把月球說成是一個培養皿。

or even a blank slate.

甚至是一片空白。

But because of the legal agreements that govern the Moon,

但由於月球的法律協議。

it actually has something very important in common

其實它有一個很重要的共同點

with our global challenges here on Earth.

應對地球上的全球挑戰。

They both involve issues that require us to think beyond territory and borders,

它們都涉及到需要我們超越領土和邊界思考的問題。

meaning the Moon is actually more of a template

意思是說，月球其實更多的是一個模板

than a blank slate.

比白板還白。

Signed in 1967, the Outer Space Treaty is the defining treaty

1967年簽署的《外層空間條約》是一項決定性條約。

governing activities in outer space,

管理外層空間的活動；

including the Moon.

包括月球。

And it has two key ingredients

而它有兩個關鍵成分

that radically alter the basis on which laws can be constructed.

從根本上改變了構建法律的基礎。

The first is a requirement for free access to all areas of a celestial body.

首先是要求自由進入天體的所有區域。

And the second is that the Moon and other celestial bodies

二是月球等天體。

are not subject to national appropriation.

不受國家撥款的限制。

Now, this is crazy,

現在，這是瘋了。

because the entire earthly international system --

因為整個地球上的國際體系 -- --

the United Nations,

聯合國，

the system of treaties and international agreements --

條約和國際協定體系----

is built on the idea of state sovereignty,

是建立在國家主權的理念上的。

on the appropriation of land and resources within borders

佔用境內土地和資源的問題的報告

and the autonomy to control free access within those borders.

和控制這些邊界內自由出入的自主權。

By doing away with both of these,

通過做掉這兩件事。

we create the conditions for what are called the "commons."

我們為所謂的 "公地 "創造條件。

Based on the work of Nobel Prize-winning economist Elinor Ostrom,

根據諾貝爾經濟學獎得主埃莉諾-奧斯特羅姆的作品改編。

global commons are those resources that we all share

全球公域是我們大家共享的資源。

that require us to work together to manage and protect

需要我們共同努力管理和保護的問題。

important aspects of our survival and well-being,

我們的生存和福祉的重要方面。

like climate or the oceans.

如氣候或海洋。

Commons-based approaches offer a greenfield for institution design

基於公有制的方法為機構設計提供了一塊綠地。

that's only beginning to be explored

夢寐以求

at the global and interplanetary level.

在全球和星際一級。

What do property rights look like?

產權是什麼樣的？

And how do we manage resources

我們又該如何管理資源

when the traditional tools of external authority and private property

當傳統的外在權威和私有財產的工具

don't apply?

不適用？

Though we don't have all the answers,

雖然我們沒有全部的答案。

climate, internet governance, authoritarianism --

氣候、互聯網治理、專制主義

these are all deeply existential threats

這些都是深深的生存威脅

that we have failed to address with our current ways of thinking.

我們目前的思維方式未能解決的問題。

Successful paths forward will require us to develop new tools.

成功的前進道路將要求我們開發新的工具。

So how do we incorporate commons-based logic

那麼，我們如何將基於共性的邏輯

into our global and space institutions?

納入我們的全球和空間機構？

Well, here's one attempt that came from an unlikely source.

嗯，這裡有一個嘗試，來自一個不太可能的來源。

As a young activist in World War II,

作為二戰中的年輕活動家。

Arvid Pardo was arrested for anti-fascist organizing

阿維德-帕爾多因組織反法西斯而被捕。

and held under death sentence by the Gestapo.

並被蓋世太保判處死刑。

After the war,

戰後。

he worked his way into the diplomatic corps,

他進入了外交使團。

eventually becoming the first permanent representative of Malta

最終成為馬耳他的第一位常駐代表

to the United Nations.

駐聯合國代表。

Pardo saw that international law did not have the tools

帕爾多認為，國際法不具備以下工具

to address management of shared global resources,

以解決全球共享資源的管理問題。

such as the high seas.

如公海。

He also saw an opportunity to advocate for equitable sharing between nations.

他還看到了一個倡導國家間公平分享的機會。

In 1967, Pardo gave a famous speech to the United Nations,

1967年，帕爾多在聯合國發表了一次著名的演講。

introducing the idea

引進

that the oceans and their resources were the "common heritage of mankind."

認為海洋及其資源是 "人類的共同遺產"。

The phrase was eventually adopted as part of the Law of the Sea Treaty,

該詞最終被採納為《海洋法條約》的一部分。

probably the most sophisticated commons-management regime

可能是最複雜的共同管理制度

on the planet today.

在今天的地球上。

It was seen as a watershed moment,

這被視為一個分水嶺。

a constitution for the seas.

海洋憲法；

But the language proved so controversial

但事實證明，這種語言是如此具有爭議性

that it took over 12 years to gain enough signatures

花了12年多時間才獲得足夠的簽名。

for the treaty to enter into force,

條約生效的條件。

and some states still refuse to sign it.

而一些州仍然拒絕簽署。

The objection was not so much about sharing per se,

反對的理由並不是分享本身。

but the obligation to share.

但分享的義務。

States felt that the principle of equality undermined their autonomy

各國認為，平等原則損害了它們的自主權。

and state sovereignty,

和國家主權。

the same autonomy and state sovereignty that underpins international law.

國際法所依據的同樣的自治和國家主權；

So in many ways,

所以在很多方面。

the story of the common heritage principle

共同遺產原則的故事

is a tragedy.

是一個悲劇。

But it's powerful because it makes plain

但它的力量是強大的，因為它讓人明白

the ways in which the current world order will put up antibodies and defenses

目前的世界秩序將以何種方式建立抗體和防禦系統

and resist attempts at structural reform.

並抵制結構改革的嘗試。

But here's the thing:

但事情是這樣的

the Outer Space Treaty has already made these structural reforms.

《外層空間條約》已經進行了這些結構性改革。

At the height of the Cold War,

在冷戰高峰期。

terrified that each would get to the Moon first,

害怕各自先到月球。

the United States and the USSR

美蘇

made the Westphalian equivalent of a deal with the devil.

做出了威斯特伐利亞人相當於與魔鬼的交易。

By requiring free access and preventing territorial appropriation,

要求自由進入，防止領土侵佔；

we are required to redesign our most basic institutions,

我們需要重新設計我們最基本的機構。

and perhaps in doing so,

或許在這樣做的時候。

learn something new we can apply here on Earth.

學習一些新的東西，我們可以在地球上應用。

So although the Moon might seem a little far away sometimes,

所以，雖然月亮有時會顯得有些遙遠。

how we answer basic questions now

我們現在如何回答基本問題

will set precedent for who has a seat at the table

將為誰坐上餐桌開了先河

and what consent looks like.

以及同意是什麼樣子的。

And these are questions of social technology,

而這些都是社會技術的問題。

not rockets and hardware.

而不是火箭和硬件。

In fact, these conversations are starting to happen right now.

事實上，這些對話現在已經開始發生。

The space community is discussing basic shared agreements,

空間界正在討論基本的共享協議。

such as how do we designate lunar areas as heritage sites,

如我們如何將月球地區指定為遺產地。

and how do we get permission for where to land

我們如何獲得許可，在哪裡降落。

when traditional external authority

當傳統的外強中乾

doesn't apply?

不適用？

How do we enforce requirements for coordination

我們如何執行協調的要求

when it's against the rules to tell people where to go?

當它是違反規則的 告訴人們去哪裡？

And how do we manage access to scarce resources

而我們如何管理稀缺資源的獲取

such as water, minerals

如水、礦物質

or even the peaks of eternal light --

甚至是永恆之光的山峰 --

craters that sit at just the right latitude

緯度合適的火山口

to receive near-constant exposure to sunlight --

近乎持續的陽光照射----

and therefore, power?

是以，權力?

Now, some people think that the lack of rules on the Moon

現在，有些人認為，月球上沒有規則

is terrifying.

是可怕的。

And there are legitimately some terrifying elements of it.

而且其中也有合法的一些可怕的元素。

If there are no rules on the Moon,

如果月球上沒有規則。

then won't we end up in a first-come, first-served situation?

那我們豈不是落得個先到先得的下場？

And we might,

而且我們可能會。

if we dismiss this moment.

如果我們不考慮這個時刻。

But not if we're willing to be bold and to engage the challenge.

但如果我們願意大膽地參與挑戰，就不會。

As we learned in our communities of self-governance,

正如我們在自治社區瞭解到的那樣：

it's easier to create something new than trying to dismantle the old.

創造新的東西比試圖拆解舊的東西更容易。

And where else but the Moon

除了月球還有什麼地方可以去呢？

can we prototype new institutions at global scale

我們能否在全球範圍內建立新機構的原型

in a self-contained environment with the exact design constraints needed

在一個自足的環境中，有確切的設計約束條件。

for our biggest challenges here on Earth?

應對地球上最大的挑戰？

Back in 1999,

早在1999年。

the United Nations taught a group of young space geeks

聯合國教給一群年輕的空間怪胎的知識。

that we could think bigger,

我們可以想得更遠。

that we could impact nations if we chose to.

如果我們願意，我們可以影響各國。

Today, the stage is set for the next step:

今天，下一步的工作已經就緒。

to envision what comes after territory and borders.

來設想領土和邊界之後的事情。

Thank you.

謝謝你了