the current coronavirus situation

目前冠狀病毒的情況

and the climate change as like yeah, actually,

和氣候變化一樣是啊，其實。

we know what to do in these situations too,

我們也知道在這種情況下該怎麼做。

and we're still doing nothing about it.

而我們還在無動於衷。

(dramatic music)

咍

Hello, my name is Dr. Victoria Petryshyn.

你好，我的名字是維多利亞-佩特里希恩博士。

I am a professor of environmental studies

我是一名環境研究教授

at the University of Southern California.

在南加州大學。

I have a PhD in geobiology, and for the past 10 years

我是地質生物學博士，在過去的10年中

I have been reconstructing past climates on Earth.

我一直在重建地球上過去的氣候。

Today, we're gonna be looking at

今天，我們要看的是

a number of different disaster movies

多部災難片

and trying to figure out which one of thems did it right,

並試圖找出他們中哪一個人做得對。

which ones did it wrong,

哪些人做錯了。

and how maybe they could have been improved.

以及如何也許他們可以被改進。

We're gonna start with one of my all-time favorite

我們要從我最喜歡的一個開始說起

disaster movies, The Day After Tomorrow,

災難片，《後天》。

in which the North Atlantic Current is disrupted,

其中北大西洋洋流被破壞。

which causes global cooling,

導致全球降溫。

a lot of weather catastrophes,

很多天氣災難。

and the dawn of a new ice age.

和新冰河時代的到來。

Here we go, a giant tsunami is about to hit Manhattan.

我們走吧，一場巨大的海嘯即將襲擊曼哈頓。

Probably not, no.

可能不會，不會。

A tsunamis is gonna be caused usually by an earthquake,

海嘯通常是由地震引起的。

so a tsunami happens when the sea floor

所以，海嘯發生時，海床。

suddenly goes up and down.

忽上忽下。

The East Coast of the United States

美國東海岸

is what's known as a passive margin.

就是所謂的被動保證金。

There is nothing on the sea floor

海底什麼都沒有

that is gonna cause a giant tsunami

這是要去引起一個巨大的海嘯

unless an asteroid hits in the middle of the ocean.

除非一顆小行星撞到海洋中間。

Now, what might happen is that if you have

現在，可能發生的情況是，如果你有...

the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet

南極冰層融化

and the Greenland ice sheet,

和格陵蘭冰原。

you will get sea level rise

你會得到海平面上升

that will start to flood New York,

這將開始淹沒紐約。

and in fact, this is something

而事實上，這就是

New York is very worried about.

紐約非常擔心。

They have proposed a billion dollar sea wall

他們提出了十億美元的海堤

to try to keep out rising sea water.

儘量防止海水上漲。

It will never be in the form of a massive tsunami

它永遠不會以大海嘯的形式出現。

that comes and levels the city in 30 seconds.

在30秒內將城市夷為平地的。

It's the super freeze.

這是超級凍人。

Could a huge air mass come in

會不會有一個巨大的氣團進來

and freeze everything in its path that quickly?

這麼快就把它所經過的一切都凍住了？

No, that's not going to happen.

不，這是不可能的。

So, in order to do that, you would essentially have to

所以，為了做到這一點，你基本上必須做到

stop the sun from existing.

阻止太陽的存在。

Could New York be plunged into some sort of deep freeze?

紐約會不會陷入某種深度冰凍？

Well, there are a couple of scenarios in which yeah,

嗯，有幾個情況下，是的。

that could happen.

這可能發生。

In fact, the northeast experiences frequently now

事實上，東北地區現在經常經歷的是

what is known as a polar vortex,

即所謂的極地漩渦。

and that happens, you get a lot of really, really

而這種情況下，你會得到很多真的，真的。

deep cold temperatures.

深冷的溫度。

What's happening is that normally all of that

發生的事情是，正常情況下，所有的這一切

really cold air stays around the Arctic Circle.

真正的冷空氣停留在北極圈附近。

What's happening with climate change is that

氣候變化的情況是

that air mass is destabilizing,

該氣團是不穩定的。

and it's dipping down into the continental U.S.,

而且它的浸透到美國大陸。

which is actually kind of hard sometimes

其實有時候也挺難的

for people to wrap their minds around

讓人摸不著頭腦

because the polar vortex reaching into New York,

因為極地漩渦伸入紐約。

or Boston, or anything like that

或波士頓，或類似的東西

is an actual effect of warming in the Arctic,

是北極地區氣候變暖的實際效果。

so it seemingly getting colder at times

是以，它似乎變得更冷的時候。

is a direct result of warming instead of cooling.

是變暖而不是變冷的直接結果。

Our next movie is The Swarm,

我們的下一部電影是《蟲群》。

which I don't know much about,

我不太瞭解。

but we're gonna watch the trailer for the movie,

但我們要看電影的預告片。

so we will learn about it together.

所以我們會一起了解它。

- [Man] For more than 20 years,

- [男人]20多年了。

scientists have known that a swarm of killer bees

科學家們已經知道，殺人蜂的群落

has been headed towards the United States.

已向美國進發。

Now, Warner Brothers presents Irwin Allen's--

現在，華納兄弟推出歐文-艾倫的...

- And they've done nothing?

- 而他們什麼都沒做？

The Swarm. - The Swarm.

群。- 群。

The Swarm is now a movie I must watch immediately.

蟲群》是我現在必須馬上看的一部電影。

But could this happen?

但會不會發生這種情況呢？

So yeah, there are animal migrations

所以，是的，有動物遷徙

that do kind of invade.

這確實是一種入侵。

I don't think their target is the human race.

我不認為他們的目標是人類。

Most of the time they're mostly looking for flowers.

大多數時候，他們主要是在找花。

Can a swarm of something, a plague of locusts,

可以一窩蜂的東西，蝗蟲的瘟疫。

something like that, come and move into the United States?

類似的東西，來搬到美國？

Sure, absolutely.

當然，絕對的。

There's no reason to say--

沒有理由說...

I mean, it's not gonna be like us and the 70s Roberts

我的意思是，它不會像我們和70年代的羅伯茨。

taking them on with flame throwers,

用火焰噴射器對付他們。

but we are definitely seeing

但我們肯定會看到

insects creeping up into our domain

蟲蟻橫行

that haven't been here before.

沒有來過這裡的人。

In Los Angeles, we used to never have mosquitoes.

在洛杉磯，我們以前從來沒有蚊子。

Now we have a lot of mosquitoes

現在我們有很多蚊子了

that carry things like West Nile, maybe Zika,

攜帶的東西，如西尼羅河，也許寨卡。

and the big culprit behind this

而這背後的罪魁禍首

is that so much of our climate is changing,

是，我們的很多氣候都在變化。

that the insects are now moving north

蟲豸北移

looking for more favorable climates,

尋找更有利的氣候條件。

so could a giant swarm of killer bees invade Texas?

所以，可能一個巨大的群 殺人蜂入侵德克薩斯州？

It might not be bees, it might be mosquitoes

可能不是蜜蜂，可能是蚊子。

that carry disease with them, but yeah, sure.

攜帶疾病的，但是是的，當然。

We'll give this a why not.

我們會給這個為什麼不。

Our next movie is Wall-E,

我們的下一部電影是Wall-E。

an adorable cautionary tale

忠言逆耳

where excessive consumerism has really made the Earth

在這裡，過度的消費主義真的讓地球

an enormous garbage dump,

一個巨大的垃圾場。

and the human race now lives on a spaceship

而人類現在生活在一艘飛船上。

waiting for the day when they can return to Earth

等待著他們返回地球的那一天。

and when life is again possible on Earth.

而當地球上再次出現生命的可能。

I love this movie.

我喜歡這部電影。

They got the space junk pretty right.

他們把太空垃圾做得很對。

Is the premise of Wall-E possible?

Wall-E的前提是可能嗎？

Could we have actually trashed this planet

我們會不會真的毀了這個星球

to the point where all of humanity

以至於全人類

has to leave and go someplace else?

必須離開，去別的地方？

And then we're just gonna send some robots

然後我們就派一些機器人來

back in to clean it up.

回來清理它。

I don't think it would actually--

我不認為它實際上會 -

I'm a little more optimistic.

我比較樂觀。

I don't think it would ever get to the point

我不認為它會永遠得到的點。

where we would actually take off on a spaceship,

在那裡，我們將真正起飛的飛船。

if only because we don't have the ability

只因我們沒本事

to get on a spaceship and go someplace else

坐上飛船去別的地方。

at this moment, so we really do have to

此時此刻，所以我們真的要。

sort of take care of what's here

打理一下

because there is no other option for us at this point.

因為在這一點上，我們沒有其他選擇。

I thought it was actually really interesting

我覺得這真的很有趣

that they had the wind turbines up there

他們有風力渦輪機在那裡

in the beginning.

一開始。

There's a big problem in environmental studies right now

現在的環境研究有一個很大的問題。

with even if you have renewable energy,

與即使你有可再生能源。

if you have solar panels or if you have wind turbines,

如果你有太陽能電池板或風力發電機。

there are parts of those that are enormous,

其中有一部分是巨大的。

especially the giant fiberglass blades.

尤其是巨大的玻璃纖維刀片。

They're huge and they're not recyclable.

他們是巨大的，他們是不可回收的。

We don't really have good answers to that yet,

我們還沒有很好的答案。

so overall I'm optimistic that no,

所以總的來說我很樂觀，不。

we would actually pump the brakes on this

我們實際上會在這上面踩下剎車

before we got as far as Wall-E,

之前，我們得到了儘可能多的Wall -E。

and then the other half of me

然後另一半的我

looks at the current coronavirus situation

看看目前冠狀病毒的情況

and looks at climate change as like yeah,

並看著氣候變化為喜歡是的。

actually we know what to do in these situations too,

其實我們也知道在這種情況下該怎麼做。

and we know how it's damaging our country,

我們知道它是如何破壞我們的國家。

damaging the world, and we're still

破壞了世界，而我們還在

doing nothing about it.

什麼也不做。

So I cling to optimism.

所以我堅持樂觀。

I know there are very smart people,

我知道有一些非常聰明的人。

very passionate people,

非常有激情的人。

my students, I see, are working on these problems,

我的學生，我看到，正在研究這些問題。

but you know, there's a lot more to help us.

但你知道，還有很多東西可以幫助我們。

Up next we have San Andreas.

接下來是聖安地列斯

In this movie, the San Andreas Fault ruptures,

在這部電影中，聖安德烈亞斯斷層破裂。

causing a bunch of major earthquakes around the fault,

導致斷層周圍發生一堆大地震。

and the only person who can save the day

而唯一能拯救世界的人

is of course, The Rock.

當然，是搖滾。

(helicopter whirring)

（直升機呼呼）

Hollywood sign's going down.

好萊塢的招牌要倒了

First of all, if the San Andreas Fault ruptures,

首先，如果聖安地列斯斷層破裂。

like the big one, the big one,

像大的，大的。

if you have, let's say, a magnitude eight

如果你有，比方說，八級地震

earthquake in Los Angeles,

洛杉磯的地震。

will all of the buildings start to crumble instantly?

是否所有的建築物都會瞬間倒塌？

Probably not the way they show in this movie.

可能不是他們在這部電影中的表現方式。

All of the buildings in Los Angeles

洛杉磯的所有建築

are built to withstand a certain amount of shaking,

是為了承受一定的震動而建造的。

so even, and if you've ever been in Los Angeles

所以，即使，如果你曾經在洛杉磯，

in an earthquake, what you see is the buildings

在地震中，你所看到的是建築物

kind of sway back and forth.

樣來回搖擺。

They're on rollers, so what you have in an earthquake

他們是在滾輪上，所以你有什麼在地震中的

is the first wave hits,

是第一波打。

and that's the shaky up and down, okay?

這就是搖搖欲墜的上上下下，好嗎？

That is what's known as the P Wave.

這就是所謂的P波。

Then what you have is the S Wave.

那麼你所擁有的就是S波。

The S Wave comes in and that's the rolling.

S浪來了，那就是滾滾而來的。

Now if you have one big enough and sustained enough,

現在，如果你有一個足夠大，足夠持續的。

like the earthquake took enough time,

像地震花了足夠的時間。

eventually those safety measures

最終這些安全措施

aren't gonna do anything anymore

什麼都不做了

and your buildings would start to fall.

你的建築就會開始倒塌。

Would it be that like all of downtown is affected?

會不會是說像市區都受到影響？

Probably not, because the San Andreas Fault

也許不是，因為聖安德烈亞斯斷層。

doesn't actually run through downtown Los Angeles.

其實並沒有穿過洛杉磯市中心。

The San Andreas Fault, the system is actually

聖安德烈亞斯斷層，該系統實際上是。

a little more north and east of here.

再往北一點，在這裡東邊。

Now if there was a big earthquake on it,

現在如果上面發生了大地震。

depending on where it was in the fault,

取決於它在哪裡的過失。

that energy could get reflected back into the L.A. Basin,

這些能量可能會被反射回洛杉磯盆地。

and take out downtown Los Angeles,

並拿出洛杉磯市區。

at least do a huge chunk of damage,

至少能造成一大塊傷害。

but it's not actually going to happen

但這是不可能的

in downtown L.A.

在洛杉磯市中心

There are other faults, of course,

當然，還有其他的過失。

that run through the entire city,

貫穿整個城市的。

but the San Andreas does not.

但聖安德烈亞斯號卻沒有。

Up next is Mad Max: Fury Road,

接下來是《瘋狂的麥克斯：憤怒之路》。

a personal favorite of mine,

我個人的最愛。

where an apocalyptic wasteland,

在那裡，一個世界末日的荒原。

where both water and oil

其中水和油

have become incredibly scarce.

已變得無比稀少。

This has collapsed civilization

這讓文明崩潰了

and turned the world into a desert wasteland.

並把世界變成了沙漠荒原。

- [Immortam Joe] I am your redeemer.

- 我是你的救贖者。

It is by my hand you will rise

你要靠我的手崛起

from the ashes.

從灰燼中走出來。

- Could we ever worldwide be in a scenario

- 我們會不會在全世界範圍內出現這樣的情況

where fresh water is so scarce

淡水資源匱乏

that we have entered a Mad Max: Fury Road scenario?

我們已經進入了《瘋狂的麥克斯： 憤怒之路》的場景？

Or the entire globe?

還是整個地球？

Probably not.

可能不會

Basically, with climate change,

基本上，隨著氣候變化。

you can just think of wherever you live,

你可以想想你住在哪裡。

whatever the worst part of your weather is,

無論你的天氣最糟糕的部分是什麼。

that's the thing that's going to get worse.

這就是事情，會變得更糟。

So here, kind of the worst things we have to worry about

所以，在這裡，那種最糟糕的事情，我們必須擔心。

are drought, wildfires, and high temperatures in the summer,

是乾旱、野火和夏季高溫。

and that's what we can expect to get worse.

這就是我們可以預期的惡化。

We can expect less fresh water.

我們可以期待更少的淡水。

We can expect more intense storms

我們可以期待更強烈的風暴

delivering less water overall.

總體上提供的水較少。

We can expect way more over 100 degree days,

我們可以期待更多超過100度的日子。

but if you look at say, what's going to happen

但如果你看看說，會發生什麼事情

in the Eastern U.S. or maybe in the Gulf regions,

在美國東部或可能在海灣地區。

so Texas, Louisiana, what can they expect?

所以德克薩斯，路易斯安那，他們能指望什麼？

It's gonna be more intense storms,

這將是更強烈的風暴。

more flooding, more hurricanes, things like that.

更多的洪水，更多的颶風，這樣的事情。

So there will still be water on Earth.

所以地球上還是會有水的。

It will still rain unless we've done

還是會下雨，除非我們做了

some kind of horrible nuclear war scenario

某種可怕的核戰爭場景

where we've literally screwed everything up,

在那裡，我們已經從字面上搞砸了一切。

but in that case, chances are

但這樣一來

humanity is not making it anyways.

人類是無論如何也做不到的。

So there would still be fresh water in some areas,

所以有些地區還是會有淡水的。

just not in all the areas.

只不過不是在所有地區。

It's also interesting to note

值得注意的是

that these movies are filmed in Australia,

這些電影是在澳洲拍攝的。

and Australia is already at this point,

而澳洲在這一點上已經。

largely a desert, so could it get there?

主要是沙漠，那麼它能到那裡嗎？

Well, parts of Australia are already there.

好吧，澳洲的部分地區已經在那裡了。

And as we've seen, the huge wildfires

正如我們所看到的，巨大的野火。

that have spread through the east coast of Australia

蔓延到澳洲東海岸

have really kind of done a number,

真的有種做了一個數字。