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  • Hello, everybody.

    譯者: Helen Chang 審譯者: Amanda Zhu

  • I'm honored to be here to talk to you,

    大家好。

  • and what I'm going to talk about today is luck and justice

    很榮幸能在這裡對您說話,

  • and the relation between them.

    我今天要談論的是運氣和正義,

  • Some years ago,

    以及它們之間的關係。

  • a former student of mine called me

    幾年前,

  • to talk about his daughter.

    我以前的一個學生打電話給我

  • It turns out his daughter was a high school senior,

    談他的女兒。

  • was seriously interested in applying to Swarthmore,

    原來他的女兒是高三學生,

  • where I taught,

    非常想申請斯沃斯莫爾學院(Swarthmore),

  • and he wanted to get my sense of whether she would get in.

    我任教的學院,

  • Swarthmore is an extremely hard school to get into.

    他想知道我是否覺得她會被錄取。

  • So I said, "Well, tell me about her."

    斯沃斯莫爾是一所難進的學校。

  • And he told me about her,

    因此我說:「好, 告訴我關於她的事。」

  • what her grades were like, her board scores,

    他告訴我她的學業成績、 美國大學理事會標準測試的分數、

  • her extracurricular activities.

    課外活動。

  • And she just sounded like a superstar,

    聽起來她超級亮眼,

  • wonderful, wonderful kid.

    是個很棒,很棒的孩子。

  • So I said, "She sounds fabulous.

    然後我說:「她聽起來很棒。

  • She sounds like just the kind of student

    她聽起來像是那種 斯沃斯莫爾想收的學生。

  • that Swarthmore would love to have."

    於是他說:「好, 這表示她會被錄取嗎?」

  • And so he said, "Well, does that mean that she'll get in?"

    我說:「不。

  • And I said, "No.

    斯沃斯莫爾沒有足夠的名額 錄取每一位優秀的學生。

  • There just aren't enough spots in the Swarthmore class

    哈佛、耶魯、普林斯頓 或史丹佛沒有足夠的名額。

  • for everybody who's good.

    Google、亞馬遜或蘋果也沒有。

  • There aren't enough spots at Harvard or Yale or Princeton or Stanford.

    TED 會議沒有足夠的名額。

  • There aren't enough spots at Google or Amazon or Apple.

    有許許多多優秀的人,

  • There aren't enough spots at the TED Conference.

    當中有一些無法被錄取。」

  • There are an awful lot of good people,

    然後他說:「好吧, 那麼我們應該怎麼做?」

  • and some of them are not going to make it."

    我說:「這是一個好問題。」

  • So he said, "Well, what are we supposed to do?"

    我們該怎麼做?

  • And I said, "That's a very good question."

    而我知道學院和大學是怎麼做的。

  • What are we supposed to do?

    為了公平起見,

  • And I know what colleges and universities have done.

    他們不斷提高標準,

  • In the interest of fairness,

    因為這做法似乎不公平:

  • what they've done is they've kept ratcheting up the standards

    錄取稍微遜色的人才 而拒絕更為出色的人才。

  • because it doesn't seem fair to admit less qualified people

    因此他們就不斷提高標準,

  • and reject better qualified people,

    提高到符合錄取標準的人數恰好。

  • so you just keep raising the standards higher and higher

    這違背了許多人對正義與公平的理解。

  • until they're high enough that you can admit

    美國社會的人

  • only the number of students that you can fit.

    對公正程序的意涵看法不同,

  • And this violates a lot of people's sense of what justice and fairness is.

    但我認為幾乎人人都同意:

  • People in American society have different opinions

    在公正、公平的制度裡,

  • about what it means to say that some sort of process is just,

    人會得其所應得。

  • but I think there's one thing that pretty much everyone agrees on,

    我告訴我以前的學生,

  • that in a just system, a fair system,

    在大學錄取這事上

  • people get what they deserve.

    人得其所應得這事並不成立。

  • And what I was telling my former student

    有些人得其應得,有些人沒有,

  • is that when it comes to college admissions,

    就這樣。

  • it just isn't true that people get what they deserve.

    提高大學入學的門檻,

  • Some people get what they deserve, and some people don't,

    就會造成高中生間的瘋狂競爭,

  • and that's just the way it is.

    因為好還不夠,

  • When you ratchet up requirements as colleges have done,

    夠好是不足夠的,

  • what you do is you create a crazy competition

    必須比其他的申請人更好才行。

  • among high school kids,

    而這造成、促成了

  • because it's not adequate to be good,

    焦慮和抑鬱的流行,

  • it's not adequate to be good enough,

    簡直壓垮了我們的青少年。

  • you have to be better than everybody else who is also applying.

    我們用這競爭毀了一代人。

  • And what this has done,

    在思考之際,

  • or what this has contributed to,

    我想到一種能解決此問題的方法。

  • is a kind of epidemic of anxiety and depression

    我們能這樣做:

  • that is just crushing our teenagers.

    收到大學入學申請時,

  • We are wrecking a generation with this kind of competition.

    我們區分出

  • As I was thinking about this,

    達到錄取水平 和低於錄取水平的申請人,

  • it occurred to me there's a way to fix this problem.

    我們拒絕那些低於錄取水平 不會被錄取的人,

  • And here's what we could do:

    然後把所有其他人的名字放在帽裡,

  • when people apply to college,

    隨機挑選,

  • we distinguish between the applicants who are good enough to be successful

    挑到的就錄取。

  • and the ones who aren't,

    換句話說,我們經由抽籤的方式 來決定誰被大學錄取,

  • and we reject the ones who aren't good enough to be successful,

    也許透過抽籤的方式 提供在科技公司工作的機會,

  • and then we take all of the others, and we put their names in a hat,

    還有——假裝我沒說——

  • and we just pick them out at random

    甚至決定邀請誰到 TED 演講 也可以用抽籤方式。

  • and admit them.

    別會錯意,

  • In other words, we do college admissions by lottery,

    抽籤方式並不能消除不公正的現象,

  • and maybe we do job offers at tech companies by lottery,

    仍然會有很多人未能得其所應得,

  • and -- perish the thought --

    但至少此過程誠實。

  • maybe we even make decisions about who gets invited to talk at TED

    它揭示了不公正之處, 而不是假裝公正,

  • by lottery.

    它還刺破了我們的高中生

  • Now, don't misunderstand me,

    目前所處的超高壓力氣球。

  • a lottery like this is not going to eliminate the injustice.

    那麼為什麼我自己聲稱 是完全合理的此一建議

  • There will still be plenty of people who don't get what they deserve.

    沒被認真討論呢?

  • But at least it's honest.

    我想我知道原因。

  • It reveals the injustice for what it is instead of pretending otherwise,

    我認為我們討厭此一想法是因為

  • and it punctures the incredible pressure balloon

    生活中真正重要的事情 可能因運氣或偶然而發生,

  • that our high school kids are now living under.

    換言之,生活中真正重要的事 不受我們的控制。

  • So why is it that this perfectly reasonable proposal,

    我討厭那樣,

  • if I do say so myself,

    人們也討厭就不足為奇了,

  • doesn't get any serious discussion?

    但情況就是這樣。

  • I think I know why.

    首先,大學錄取過程已是碰運氣,

  • I think it's that we hate the idea

    只是招生人員假裝並非如此。

  • that really important things in life might happen by luck or by chance,

    因此,讓我們誠實面對吧。

  • that really important things in our lives are not under our control.

    其次,

  • I hate that idea.

    我想,如果我們承認是碰運氣,

  • It's not surprising that people hate that idea,

    也會使我們認識到好運的重要性。

  • but it simply is the way things are.

    我們一生中幾乎事事如此。

  • First of all, college admissions already is a lottery.

    以我為例。

  • It's just that the admissions officers pretend that it isn't.

    我生命中幾乎所有重要的事

  • So let's be honest about it.

    在很大程度上

  • And second,

    都是因為好運氣。

  • I think if we appreciated that it was a lottery,

    我七年級時,我和家人搬離紐約,

  • it would also get us to acknowledge the importance of good fortune

    去了威徹斯特縣。

  • in almost every one of our lives.

    就在開學之初,

  • Take me.

    我遇到了一個可愛的年輕女孩, 她成為了我的朋友,

  • Almost all the most significant events in my life have occurred,

    然後成為了我最好的朋友,

  • to a large degree,

    然後成為我的女朋友,

  • as a result of good luck.

    然後成為我的妻子。

  • When I was in seventh grade, my family left New York

    我和妻子快樂結褵了 52 年。

  • and went to Westchester County.

    我的所作所為幾乎無關。

  • Right at the beginning of school,

    只是好運氣。

  • I met a lovely young girl who became my friend,

    我去上大學,

  • then she became my best friend,

    在第一學期選了心理學概論課。

  • then she became my girlfriend

    我甚至不知道心理學是什麼,

  • and then she became my wife.

    但它符合我的課表和修課所需,

  • Happily, she's been my wife now

    所以我修了。

  • for 52 years.

    幸運的是,這堂課由一位 傳奇的心理學超級巨星教授授課。

  • I had very little to do with this. This was a lucky accident.

    因此,我以心理系為主修,

  • I went off to college,

    上了研究所。

  • and in my first semester, I signed up for a class in introduction to psychology.

    在我快完成學業時,

  • I didn't even know what psychology was,

    一個在斯沃斯莫爾教書的朋友

  • but it fit into my schedule and it met requirements,

    決定不再當教授了,

  • so I took it.

    他辭了教職去讀醫學院。

  • And by luck, the class was taught

    他的職位成了職缺,

  • by a superstar introductory psychology teacher, a legend.

    我申請,得到了,

  • Because of that, I became a psychology major.

    它成了我唯一曾經申請過的工作。

  • Went off to graduate school.

    我在斯沃斯莫爾教了 45 年書,

  • I was finishing up.

    這學院對我的職涯影響巨大。

  • A friend of mine who taught at Swarthmore decided

    最後再舉一個例子,

  • he didn't want to be a professor anymore,

    我曾在紐約演講,談我在做的研究。

  • and so he quit to go to medical school.

    演講結束後,聽眾中有個人來找我。

  • The job that he occupied opened up,

    他自我介紹,

  • I applied for it, I got it,

    說:「我叫克里斯。 您想在 TED 上演講嗎?」

  • the only job I've ever applied for.

    我問:「什麼是 TED?」

  • I spent 45 years teaching at Swarthmore,

    他告訴了我,

  • an institution that had an enormous impact on the shape that my career took.

    當時的 TED 和現在不同。

  • And to just give one last example,

    但是在隨後的幾年裡,

  • I was giving a talk about some of my work in New York,

    我在 TED 的演講被二千多萬人看過。

  • and there was somebody in the audience who came up to me after my talk.

    因此結論是,我是個幸運的人。

  • He introduced himself.

    我慶幸自己的婚姻,

  • He said, "My name is Chris.

    慶幸自己的學業,

  • Would you like to give a talk at TED?"

    慶幸自己的職業,

  • And my response was, "What's TED?"

    還慶幸在 TED 之類的平台上有發言權。

  • Well, I mean, he told me,

    我值得獲取這些成功嗎?

  • and TED then wasn't what it is now.

    當然我值得,

  • But in the intervening years,

    就像您值得獲取成功一樣。

  • the talks I've given at TED have been watched

    但很多像我們一樣也值得獲取成功的人

  • by more than 20 million people.

    卻還沒有成功。

  • So the conclusion is, I'm a lucky man.

    那麼,人們會得其所應得嗎?

  • I'm lucky about my marriage.

    社會是公正的嗎?

  • I'm lucky about my education.

    當然不是。

  • I'm lucky about my career.

    努力工作和遵守規則 並不能給予任何保證。

  • And I'm lucky to have had a platform and a voice at something like TED.

    如果我們認知這種不公正的必然性

  • Did I deserve the success I've had?

    和好運的中心地位,

  • Sure I deserve that success,

    我們可能會問自己,

  • just as you probably deserve your success.

    我們肩負了什麼責任,

  • But lots of people also deserve successes like ours

    在這疫情大流行時期, 我們對稱頌的英雄肩負什麼責任呢?

  • who haven't had it.

    正當他們的家人面臨嚴重的疾病,

  • So do people get what they deserve?

    如何確保他們的家庭保持完整, 人生不因療病的花費而崩壞呢?

  • Is society just?

    我們欠那些處於掙扎中的人什麼?

  • Of course not.

    他們努力工作,卻沒有我們那麼好運。

  • Working hard and playing by the rules is just no guarantee of anything.

    大約半個世紀前,

  • If we appreciate the inevitability of this kind of injustice

    哲學家約翰·羅爾斯(John Rawls) 寫了一本叫做《正義論》的書。

  • and the centrality of good fortune,

    書中介紹一個概念, 他稱之為「無知的面紗」。

  • we might ask ourselves

    他提出的問題是:

  • what responsibilities do we have

    如果你不知道自己 將會在社會中立足何處,

  • to the people we are now celebrating as heroes in this time of the pandemic

    又怎麼會知道你想要建立 什麼樣的社會呢?

  • when a serious illness befalls their family

    他的建議

  • to make sure that they remain whole and their lives aren't ruined

    就是在我們不知道會進入 社會的頂部或底部的情況下,

  • by the cost of dealing with the illness?

    我們將會想要一個極其平等的社會,

  • What do we owe people who struggle,

    這樣就算倒霉的人

  • work hard and are less lucky than we are?

    仍能夠過體面、有意義 和令人滿意的日子。

  • About a half century ago,

    因此,讓所有這些 有幸、成功的人回到社區,

  • the philosopher John Rawls wrote a book called "A Theory of Justice,"

    盡力確保我們尊重並照顧到

  • and in that book, he introduced a concept that he called "the veil of ignorance."

    那些和我們一樣值得成功, 卻沒那麼幸運的人。

  • The question he posed was:

    謝謝。

  • If you didn't know what your position in society was going to be,

  • what kind of a society would you want to create?

  • And what he suggested

  • is that when we don't know whether we're going to enter society

  • at the top or at the bottom,

  • what we want is a society that is pretty damn equal,

  • so that even the unlucky

  • will be able to live decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.

  • So bring this back, all of you lucky, successful people, to your communities,

  • and do what you can to make sure that we honor and take care of

  • people who are just as deserving of success as we are,

  • but just not as lucky.

  • Thank you.

Hello, everybody.

譯者: Helen Chang 審譯者: Amanda Zhu

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