I'm honored to be here to talk to you,

大家好。

and what I'm going to talk about today is luck and justice

很榮幸能在這裡對您說話，

and the relation between them.

我今天要談論的是運氣和正義，

Some years ago,

以及它們之間的關係。

a former student of mine called me

幾年前，

to talk about his daughter.

我以前的一個學生打電話給我

It turns out his daughter was a high school senior,

談他的女兒。

was seriously interested in applying to Swarthmore,

原來他的女兒是高三學生，

where I taught,

非常想申請斯沃斯莫爾學院（Swarthmore），

and he wanted to get my sense of whether she would get in.

我任教的學院，

Swarthmore is an extremely hard school to get into.

他想知道我是否覺得她會被錄取。

So I said, "Well, tell me about her."

斯沃斯莫爾是一所難進的學校。

And he told me about her,

因此我說：「好， 告訴我關於她的事。」

what her grades were like, her board scores,

他告訴我她的學業成績、 美國大學理事會標準測試的分數、

her extracurricular activities.

課外活動。

And she just sounded like a superstar,

聽起來她超級亮眼，

wonderful, wonderful kid.

是個很棒，很棒的孩子。

So I said, "She sounds fabulous.

然後我說：「她聽起來很棒。

She sounds like just the kind of student

她聽起來像是那種 斯沃斯莫爾想收的學生。

that Swarthmore would love to have."

於是他說：「好， 這表示她會被錄取嗎？」

And so he said, "Well, does that mean that she'll get in?"

我說：「不。

And I said, "No.

斯沃斯莫爾沒有足夠的名額 錄取每一位優秀的學生。

There just aren't enough spots in the Swarthmore class

哈佛、耶魯、普林斯頓 或史丹佛沒有足夠的名額。

for everybody who's good.

Google、亞馬遜或蘋果也沒有。

There aren't enough spots at Harvard or Yale or Princeton or Stanford.

TED 會議沒有足夠的名額。

There aren't enough spots at Google or Amazon or Apple.

有許許多多優秀的人，

There aren't enough spots at the TED Conference.

當中有一些無法被錄取。」

There are an awful lot of good people,

然後他說：「好吧， 那麼我們應該怎麼做？」

and some of them are not going to make it."

我說：「這是一個好問題。」

So he said, "Well, what are we supposed to do?"

我們該怎麼做？

And I said, "That's a very good question."

而我知道學院和大學是怎麼做的。

What are we supposed to do?

為了公平起見，

And I know what colleges and universities have done.

他們不斷提高標準，

In the interest of fairness,

因為這做法似乎不公平：

what they've done is they've kept ratcheting up the standards

錄取稍微遜色的人才 而拒絕更為出色的人才。

because it doesn't seem fair to admit less qualified people

因此他們就不斷提高標準，

and reject better qualified people,

提高到符合錄取標準的人數恰好。

so you just keep raising the standards higher and higher

這違背了許多人對正義與公平的理解。

until they're high enough that you can admit

美國社會的人

only the number of students that you can fit.

對公正程序的意涵看法不同，

And this violates a lot of people's sense of what justice and fairness is.

但我認為幾乎人人都同意：

People in American society have different opinions

在公正、公平的制度裡，

about what it means to say that some sort of process is just,

人會得其所應得。

but I think there's one thing that pretty much everyone agrees on,

我告訴我以前的學生，

that in a just system, a fair system,

在大學錄取這事上

people get what they deserve.

人得其所應得這事並不成立。

And what I was telling my former student

有些人得其應得，有些人沒有，

is that when it comes to college admissions,

就這樣。

it just isn't true that people get what they deserve.

提高大學入學的門檻，

Some people get what they deserve, and some people don't,

就會造成高中生間的瘋狂競爭，

and that's just the way it is.

因為好還不夠，

When you ratchet up requirements as colleges have done,

夠好是不足夠的，

what you do is you create a crazy competition

必須比其他的申請人更好才行。

among high school kids,

而這造成、促成了

because it's not adequate to be good,

焦慮和抑鬱的流行，

it's not adequate to be good enough,

簡直壓垮了我們的青少年。

you have to be better than everybody else who is also applying.

我們用這競爭毀了一代人。

And what this has done,

在思考之際，

or what this has contributed to,

我想到一種能解決此問題的方法。

is a kind of epidemic of anxiety and depression

我們能這樣做：

that is just crushing our teenagers.

收到大學入學申請時，

We are wrecking a generation with this kind of competition.

我們區分出

As I was thinking about this,

達到錄取水平 和低於錄取水平的申請人，

it occurred to me there's a way to fix this problem.

我們拒絕那些低於錄取水平 不會被錄取的人，

And here's what we could do:

然後把所有其他人的名字放在帽裡，

when people apply to college,

隨機挑選，

we distinguish between the applicants who are good enough to be successful

挑到的就錄取。

and the ones who aren't,

換句話說，我們經由抽籤的方式 來決定誰被大學錄取，

and we reject the ones who aren't good enough to be successful,

也許透過抽籤的方式 提供在科技公司工作的機會，

and then we take all of the others, and we put their names in a hat,

還有——假裝我沒說——

and we just pick them out at random

甚至決定邀請誰到 TED 演講 也可以用抽籤方式。

and admit them.

別會錯意，

In other words, we do college admissions by lottery,

抽籤方式並不能消除不公正的現象，

and maybe we do job offers at tech companies by lottery,

仍然會有很多人未能得其所應得，

and -- perish the thought --

但至少此過程誠實。

maybe we even make decisions about who gets invited to talk at TED

它揭示了不公正之處， 而不是假裝公正，

by lottery.

它還刺破了我們的高中生

Now, don't misunderstand me,

目前所處的超高壓力氣球。

a lottery like this is not going to eliminate the injustice.

那麼為什麼我自己聲稱 是完全合理的此一建議

There will still be plenty of people who don't get what they deserve.

沒被認真討論呢？

But at least it's honest.

我想我知道原因。

It reveals the injustice for what it is instead of pretending otherwise,

我認為我們討厭此一想法是因為

and it punctures the incredible pressure balloon

生活中真正重要的事情 可能因運氣或偶然而發生，

that our high school kids are now living under.

換言之，生活中真正重要的事 不受我們的控制。

So why is it that this perfectly reasonable proposal,

我討厭那樣，

if I do say so myself,

人們也討厭就不足為奇了，

doesn't get any serious discussion?

但情況就是這樣。

I think I know why.

首先，大學錄取過程已是碰運氣，

I think it's that we hate the idea

只是招生人員假裝並非如此。

that really important things in life might happen by luck or by chance,

因此，讓我們誠實面對吧。

that really important things in our lives are not under our control.

其次，

I hate that idea.

我想，如果我們承認是碰運氣，

It's not surprising that people hate that idea,

也會使我們認識到好運的重要性。

but it simply is the way things are.

我們一生中幾乎事事如此。

First of all, college admissions already is a lottery.

以我為例。

It's just that the admissions officers pretend that it isn't.

我生命中幾乎所有重要的事

So let's be honest about it.

在很大程度上

And second,

都是因為好運氣。

I think if we appreciated that it was a lottery,

我七年級時，我和家人搬離紐約，

it would also get us to acknowledge the importance of good fortune

去了威徹斯特縣。

in almost every one of our lives.

就在開學之初，

Take me.

我遇到了一個可愛的年輕女孩， 她成為了我的朋友，

Almost all the most significant events in my life have occurred,

然後成為了我最好的朋友，

to a large degree,

然後成為我的女朋友，

as a result of good luck.

然後成為我的妻子。

When I was in seventh grade, my family left New York

我和妻子快樂結褵了 52 年。

and went to Westchester County.

我的所作所為幾乎無關。

Right at the beginning of school,

只是好運氣。

I met a lovely young girl who became my friend,

我去上大學，

then she became my best friend,

在第一學期選了心理學概論課。

then she became my girlfriend

我甚至不知道心理學是什麼，

and then she became my wife.

但它符合我的課表和修課所需，

Happily, she's been my wife now

所以我修了。

for 52 years.

幸運的是，這堂課由一位 傳奇的心理學超級巨星教授授課。

I had very little to do with this. This was a lucky accident.

因此，我以心理系為主修，

I went off to college,

上了研究所。

and in my first semester, I signed up for a class in introduction to psychology.

在我快完成學業時，

I didn't even know what psychology was,

一個在斯沃斯莫爾教書的朋友

but it fit into my schedule and it met requirements,

決定不再當教授了，

so I took it.

他辭了教職去讀醫學院。

And by luck, the class was taught

他的職位成了職缺，

by a superstar introductory psychology teacher, a legend.

我申請，得到了，

Because of that, I became a psychology major.

它成了我唯一曾經申請過的工作。

Went off to graduate school.

我在斯沃斯莫爾教了 45 年書，

I was finishing up.

這學院對我的職涯影響巨大。

A friend of mine who taught at Swarthmore decided

最後再舉一個例子，

he didn't want to be a professor anymore,

我曾在紐約演講，談我在做的研究。

and so he quit to go to medical school.

演講結束後，聽眾中有個人來找我。

The job that he occupied opened up,

他自我介紹，

I applied for it, I got it,

說：「我叫克里斯。 您想在 TED 上演講嗎？」

the only job I've ever applied for.

我問：「什麼是 TED？」

I spent 45 years teaching at Swarthmore,

他告訴了我，

an institution that had an enormous impact on the shape that my career took.

當時的 TED 和現在不同。

And to just give one last example,

但是在隨後的幾年裡，

I was giving a talk about some of my work in New York,

我在 TED 的演講被二千多萬人看過。

and there was somebody in the audience who came up to me after my talk.

因此結論是，我是個幸運的人。

He introduced himself.

我慶幸自己的婚姻，

He said, "My name is Chris.

慶幸自己的學業，

Would you like to give a talk at TED?"

慶幸自己的職業，

And my response was, "What's TED?"

還慶幸在 TED 之類的平台上有發言權。

Well, I mean, he told me,

我值得獲取這些成功嗎？

and TED then wasn't what it is now.

當然我值得，

But in the intervening years,

就像您值得獲取成功一樣。

the talks I've given at TED have been watched

但很多像我們一樣也值得獲取成功的人

by more than 20 million people.

卻還沒有成功。

So the conclusion is, I'm a lucky man.

那麼，人們會得其所應得嗎？

I'm lucky about my marriage.

社會是公正的嗎？

I'm lucky about my education.

當然不是。

I'm lucky about my career.

努力工作和遵守規則 並不能給予任何保證。

And I'm lucky to have had a platform and a voice at something like TED.

如果我們認知這種不公正的必然性

Did I deserve the success I've had?

和好運的中心地位，

Sure I deserve that success,

我們可能會問自己，

just as you probably deserve your success.

我們肩負了什麼責任，

But lots of people also deserve successes like ours

在這疫情大流行時期， 我們對稱頌的英雄肩負什麼責任呢？

who haven't had it.

正當他們的家人面臨嚴重的疾病，

So do people get what they deserve?

如何確保他們的家庭保持完整， 人生不因療病的花費而崩壞呢？

Is society just?

我們欠那些處於掙扎中的人什麼？

Of course not.

他們努力工作，卻沒有我們那麼好運。

Working hard and playing by the rules is just no guarantee of anything.

大約半個世紀前，

If we appreciate the inevitability of this kind of injustice

哲學家約翰·羅爾斯（John Rawls） 寫了一本叫做《正義論》的書。

and the centrality of good fortune,

書中介紹一個概念， 他稱之為「無知的面紗」。

we might ask ourselves

他提出的問題是：

what responsibilities do we have

如果你不知道自己 將會在社會中立足何處，

to the people we are now celebrating as heroes in this time of the pandemic

又怎麼會知道你想要建立 什麼樣的社會呢？

when a serious illness befalls their family

他的建議

to make sure that they remain whole and their lives aren't ruined

就是在我們不知道會進入 社會的頂部或底部的情況下，

by the cost of dealing with the illness?

我們將會想要一個極其平等的社會，

What do we owe people who struggle,

這樣就算倒霉的人

work hard and are less lucky than we are?

仍能夠過體面、有意義 和令人滿意的日子。

About a half century ago,

因此，讓所有這些 有幸、成功的人回到社區，

the philosopher John Rawls wrote a book called "A Theory of Justice,"

盡力確保我們尊重並照顧到

and in that book, he introduced a concept that he called "the veil of ignorance."

那些和我們一樣值得成功， 卻沒那麼幸運的人。

The question he posed was:

謝謝。

If you didn't know what your position in society was going to be,

what kind of a society would you want to create?

And what he suggested

is that when we don't know whether we're going to enter society

at the top or at the bottom,

what we want is a society that is pretty damn equal,

so that even the unlucky

will be able to live decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.

So bring this back, all of you lucky, successful people, to your communities,

and do what you can to make sure that we honor and take care of

people who are just as deserving of success as we are,

but just not as lucky.

Thank you.