Name: 負油價到底意味著什麼 (What Negative Oil Prices Really Mean)
Uploaded: 2020-09-16T19:11:28.000Z
Duration: 10 min 20 s

過去簡單式

A commodity (crude oil) that was once trading at 140 dollars suddenly became so worthless

一件商品(原油)曾經的交易價格是140美元，突然變得如此不值錢了。

情態助動詞 A2

On the 20th of April, oil price crossed the zero dollar mark and went as far as negative

4月20日，油價越過零元大關，遠至負數。

Some people got excited since they were expecting free gas at the gas stations.

有些人興奮了，因為他們期待著加油站的免費加油。

Some went as far as imagining that they will be paid to buy the oil, which sounds a bit

有些人甚至想象著，他們將有償購買石油，這聽起來有點。

To understand the current crises, we have to have some clarity on how crude oil prices

要理解當前的危機，我們必須對原油價格的走勢有所瞭解

Like any other market, you would assume that the laws of supply and demand drive the price.

就像其他市場一樣，你會認為供求規律推動了價格。

Oil producers on one side such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, and others.

沙特、俄羅斯、阿聯酋等一方產油國。

And a dozen major consumers on the other side such as the US, China, and India.

而另一邊的美國、中國、印度等十幾個主要消費者。

So if suddenly these countries would no longer want the oil, the prices would decrease and

所以，如果這些國家突然不想要石油了，那麼價格就會下降，而且。

Oil producers can also manipulate the price based on how much oil they would supply the

石油生產商還可以根據他們將供應多少石油來操縱價格。

But here is the problem with the oil market.

Sometimes the demand can rise, but the price drops, which doesn't make sense using the

有時需求量可以上升，但價格卻下降了，這就沒有意義了，用的是

And that it because oil prices do not often work with supply and demand but are more driven

這是因為油價往往不與供求關係有關，而更多的是受以下因素的影響

Yes, those dudes in the wall street with fancy suits quite often have more influence over

是的，那些在華爾街的花花公子和西裝革履的花花公子，往往有更多的影響力。

the oil prices than oil produces themselves.

This industry is really competitive, and it's not easy to get into it.

這個行業競爭真的很激烈，想進入這個行業並不容易。

You can't simply drill oil under your house and start selling.

你不能簡單地在你的房子下面鑽油，然後開始銷售。

It's mostly governments, or government-controlled companies who are producing the crude oil

主要是政府，或者政府控制的公司在生產原油。

Imagine spending millions of dollars extracting crude oil from your soil.

想象一下，花費數百萬美元從你的土壤中提取原油。

Then ship it to your client, who is thousands of miles away, and then find out that oil

然後運給遠在千里之外的客戶，然後發現，油

In fact they dropped so low that selling this oil is just unprofitable or worst.

其實他們跌得這麼低，賣這個油只是無利可圖，或者說最差。

To prevent such things from happening and be confident that regardless of what happens,

為了防止這樣的事情發生，相信無論發生什麼事情。

the buyer will buy your crude oil at an agreed price, you make a contract.

買家會以約定的價格購買你的原油，你要簽訂合同。

Let's call it a forward contract, where both of you agree to buy and sell a particular

讓我們把它稱為遠期合約，你們雙方同意買入和賣出一個特定的。

asset in this case, crude oil at a specific price and on a specific date.

在這種情況下，在特定的價格和特定的日期，原油是一種資產。

Whether the price of oil increases or decreases, it doesn't matter, the seller has an obligation

不管油價是漲是跌，都無所謂，賣方有義務

to sell the oil at an agreed price, and the buyer has to buy at an agreed price

以商定的價格出售石油，而買方必須以商定的價格購買

- The Rich dudes from wall street But on the other side of the sepctrum, there

- 華爾街的富豪們 但在另一邊，有...

These are the rich dudes from wall street who are trying to make money by speculating

這些都是華爾街的有錢人，他們想通過投機來賺錢

on the prices by buying and selling futures.

通過買入和賣出期貨，在價格上。

A future is a contract pretty much like a forward contract except its often not delivered.

未來是一種合同，和遠期合同差不多，只是它經常不兌現。

And it is traded in the market like a stock and base on what's happening in the oil

它是在市場上交易像股票和基礎上發生的石油

industry, the price of the future changes.

Let's say Mark is a trader and wants to speculate on the price of crude oil by entering into

假設馬克是一個交易員，想通過進入以下交易來炒作原油價格。

a futures contract in April with the expectation that the price will be higher by September.

4月的一份期貨合約，預期到9月價格會更高。

The September crude oil future contract is trading at $40 dollars right now in April

9月原油期貨合約現在4月份的交易價格為40美元。

The contract is worth 40 thousand dollars since oil is traded in blocks of a 1000 barrels

該合同價值4萬美元，因為石油是以1000桶為組織、部門進行交易的。

(price ($40) x quantity (1000 barrerls)).

Fast forward few months and its September and the end of contract is approaching.

快進幾個月，已經到了9月，合同結束的日子也快到了。

Lucky for Mark, the price of the oil has increased to 52 dollars so the future contract he purchased

馬克很幸運，油價已經漲到了52美元，所以他購買的未來合同。

So he sells the contract at that price and makes 12K in profit (40K - 52K) but if the

所以他以這個價格賣出合約，賺取了1.2萬的利潤（4萬-5.2萬），但如果是

prices had fallen to 35 dollars for example, he would have made a loss of 5K dollars.

比如說價格跌到35美元，他就會虧損5千美元。

Simple, right?!But from April to September, the price of the oil fluctuates so does the

簡單吧！但從4月到9月，油價的波動也是。

price of this future and Mark can sell it any point.

這個未來的價格，馬克可以在任何一個點上賣掉它。

Futures allow investors to use leverage to trade with oil without physically dealing

期貨允許投資者使用槓桿進行石油交易，而無需實際交易

Lets say oil prices are 20 dollars and you expect them to increase next month.

假設油價是20美元，你預計下個月會漲。

Such a contract worth 20K dollars (20$X1000 barrels) but you can buy such a future for

這樣的合同價值2萬美元（20美元X1000桶），但你可以買到這樣的未來，以

as little as a $1000 and leverage the rest.

只要1000元，剩下的就可以利用。

The price goes up to 25 dollars next month, and you sell the future for that price- $25K

下個月價格漲到25元，你就以這個價格賣出未來--2.5萬元。

You still owe your broker 19K dollars since you only paid 1K for this contract and you

你仍然欠你的經紀人19K美元，因為你只支付了1K的合同，你

are left with your thousand dollars and a 5K in profit.

剩下的是你的一千塊錢和五千元的利潤。

You profited from crude oil without producing it or buying it..

你從原油中獲利，卻沒有生產或購買它。

So back in 2001 and 2002, many of these traders speculated that the price of crude oil would

所以，早在2001年和2002年，這些交易員中的很多人就猜測原油價格會。

rise since countries like China and India were growing exponentially.

上升，因為中國和印度等國家的增長速度是成倍的。

They would need more oil to keep growing, so the demand for oil would increase.

他們需要更多的石油來保持增長，所以對石油的需求會增加。

Therefore oil prices kept growing until they reached 140 dollars right before 2008 and

是以，油價一直在增長，直到2008年之前達到140美元，並。

crushed together with the rest of the economy as everyone expect the demand for oil would

由於每個人都期望石油需求將與其他經濟一起被壓垮。

fall since there is a financial crisis in the streets.

And since then, they haven't really grown that much since renewable energy is getting

從那時起，他們就沒有真正的增長，因為可再生能源越來越多

more and more popular and a wide range of other factors.

But that doesn't mean oil is getting worthless.

但這並不意味著石油越來越不值錢。

At least in the next few decades, the oil will still be the major source of energy,

至少在未來幾十年內，石油仍將是主要的能源。

because it is not only used to fuel your car and plane but in almost everything we use

因為它不僅用於汽車和飛機的燃料，而且幾乎用於所有我們使用的東西。

If that's is the case, then how did we end up with negative oil prices $-40.

如果是這樣的話，那我們怎麼會出現負油價40美元的情況呢？

First of all, we had a price war between Russia and OPEC countries.

首先，我們在俄羅斯和歐佩克國家之間進行了價格戰。

OPEC is an oil cartel that consists of 12 major oil producers, but Russia isn't part

歐佩克是一個由12個主要產油國組成的石油卡特爾，但俄羅斯不是其中一員

However, in recent years, Russia decided that if it would better if it would collaborate

然而，近年來，俄羅斯決定，如果它將更好地合作，如果它會

But then in March Russia decided it won't need OPEC anymore and would better off on

但在3月，俄羅斯決定不再需要歐佩克了，最好是依靠

So the de facto leader of OPEC Saudi Arabia decided to punish Russia for violating the

所以歐佩克的實際領導人沙特決定懲罰俄羅斯，因為俄羅斯違反了

agreement by flooding the market with so much oil that prices dropped by half.

協議，通過大量石油充斥市場，使價格下降了一半。

Traders and speculators were already afraid that oil prices would decrease further and

交易商和投機者已經擔心油價會進一步下跌，並擔心油價會被炒作。

placed future contracts at a lower price.

And then the Pandemic struck the entire planet.

然後，大流行病襲擊了整個地球。

The United States and other major consumers of crude oil had to go on lockdown.

美國和其他主要原油消費國不得不進行封鎖。

So with so much oil in the market and with no one to buy it, of course the price significantly

所以，市場上的油那麼多，又沒有人買，價格當然會明顯的

Especially future contracts, since their price change daily based on what's happening in

尤其是期貨合約，因為它們的價格每天都在變化，根據發生的事情在

But what was interesting is what was happening with futures of WTI or West Texas Intermediate.

但有趣的是，WTI或西德克薩斯中質原油的期貨發生了什麼。

Their last day of trading crude oil futures contract was 21.04.2020. which means all the

他們的原油期貨合約最後交易日是2020年4月21日.這意味著所有的

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負油價到底意味著什麼 (What Negative Oil Prices Really Mean)

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