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  • Successful investing does not require stratospheric IQ, insider information, or luck for that matte.r

  • Instead what's needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions, combined with an ability to keep emotions from ruining it.

  • In "The Intelligent Investor", Benjamin Graham presents such a framework together with logic that will help to keep your emotions under control.

  • Arguably, he's investing strategy has been one of the most successful ones during the last hundred years. The impressive records,

  • not just of Graham himself,

  • but also of numerous of his disciples are impossible to ignore.

  • Among these, the brightest shining star is Warren Buffett, who, at the time of this video making, is the third wealthiest man in the world.

  • Warren Buffett refers to this book as "by far, the best book on investing ever written". In this video,

  • I will present the, in my opinion, greatest takeaways from the book.

  • Takeaway number 1: Meet Mr. Market

  • Imagine that you own a part of a business that you paid $1000 for. Every day, a certain bipolar person called

  • Mr. Market comes to your home with an opinion about how much you're part of that business is worth. Furthermore,

  • he offers to buy your share or sell you an additional one on that basis. History has shown that

  • Mr. Market's opinion about how much your part of the business is worth, can be pure gibberish. For instance, back in March 2000,

  • he estimated the value of your share to be $2600. Only one year later, in March 2001,

  • he thought it was worth $500.

  • Even though the income of the company increased with 50% and the profit increased by 20% during the same period.

  • Should you let this guy decide how much your $1000 of interest in that business is worth? Of course not!

  • One of Graham's core principles, is that a stock is not just a ticker symbol combined with a price tag,

  • it's an ownership interest in a business. And because

  • Mr. Market isn't always rational, the underlying value of the business can differ from the price he is willing to pay for it.

  • In fact, it frequently is over- or underpriced as Mr. Market easily becomes over optimistic, or conversely too pessimistic.

  • Graham advises you to invest only if you would feel comfortable to hold the stock in the future without seeing the fluctuating prices that

  • Mr. Market presents you with. But for the investor who can keep his head cool,

  • Mr. Market presents a great possibility of making money, for he doesn't force you to strike a deal with him,

  • he merely presents you with an opportunity of doing so! You should be happy to sell to him when he offers prices that are

  • ridiculously high, and similarly, you should be happy to buy from him when he presents you with bargains.

  • We must consider that, at the time when Graham wrote this book, people were far less bombarded with news,

  • forecasts, stock quotes, and so on than we are today. Back in the 1970s,

  • Mr. Market arrived maybe once a day, together with the morning newspaper.

  • Today, he wants to do business with us

  • every time we open our phone. Which, if you're anything like me, is more than 100 times every day, Just because

  • Mr. Market visits you more often,

  • it doesn't mean that you must trade with him any more frequently than people had to in the

  • 1970s. If he doesn't present you with an offer that meets your standards,

  • ignore him, and move on with your day!

  • Takeaway number 2: How to invest as a defensive investor.

  • There are two types of investors according to Graham - the defensive (or passive) one and the enterprising (or active one).

  • Most people are better suited for the defensive strategy, as the time

  • they are willing to dedicate to investing is limited. The defensive investor should create a portfolio with a mixture of bonds and stocks,

  • say 50% stocks and 50% bonds.

  • Note that how much you should devote to each asset category depends on your life situation and the current difference in the average yield of

  • stocks versus bonds.

  • Restore this allocation once or twice every year, so that if stocks suddenly make up 60% of the portfolio

  • compared to only 40% in bonds, sell stocks and buy bonds, until 50/50 is restored.

  • Invest a fixed amount of capital at regular intervals. For instance, straight after you get your salary.

  • This is called dollar-cost averaging, and will allow for a fair average price of stocks and bonds.

  • Most of all,

  • it will assure that you don't concentrate your buying at the wrong time. For the stock component of the portfolio,

  • the defensive investor should aim for the following 8:

  • 1: Diversification in the companies he invests in. 10 to 30 companies should be adequate.

  • Also, make sure that you are not overexposed to a single industry.

  • 2: The companies should be large, which Graham defined as generating more than a $100 million in yearly sales.

  • After inflation, this equals approximately to $700 million in today's value.

  • 3: Look for companies that are conservatively financed. Such a company has a so called "current ratio" of at least

  • 200%. This means that its current assets are at least twice as big as its current liabilities.

  • 4: Dividend should have been paid to shareholders for at least the last 20 years.

  • 5: No earnings deficit in the last ten years.

  • 6: At least 33% growth in earnings during the last ten years.

  • This translates to a conservative growth of 2.9% annually.

  • 7. Don't overpay for assets.

  • The price of the stock should not be higher than 1.5 times its net asset value.

  • The net asset value can be calculated by subtracting the company's liabilities from its assets. 8: Don't overpay for earnings (either).

  • Don't let the p/e ratio be higher than 15 when using the last 12-month earnings.

  • An alternative today is to invest in an index fund, which by definition will have returns similar to the average of the market.

  • If you are satisfied with an average reward through your investing, you only need these two first takeaways.

  • However, if you thirst for more, you will also need to consideeeeeeeer ....

  • Takeaway number 3: How to invest as an enterprising investor.

  • As it's so easy for the defensive investor to get the average return of the market,

  • it would seem a simple matter to beat the market. You just devote a little more time to investing than these average investors do, right?

  • To be an enterprising investor, and to beat the market, is much more demanding as such a logic suggests.

  • It requires patience, discipline, an eagerness to learn and a lot of time.

  • Many professionals and private investors alike aren't suited for this. It's easier to fall victim to the price quotations of Mr. Market than one could possibly imagine.

  • Just listen to these two statements from the early 2000s, at the peak of the dot-com bubble,

  • made by the chief investment strategist at 2 large mutual funds:

  • "It's a new world order...."

  • "We see people discard all the right companies, with all the right people, with the right visions, because their stock price is too high."

  • "That's the worst mistake an investor can make."

  • "Is the stock market riskier today than two years ago simply because the prices are higher? The answer is no!"

  • But the answer is yes, yes, YES!

  • Of course, both statements turned out to be costly for the investors who put their money in these funds.

  • Since the profits that companies can earn are

  • finite, the price the intelligent investor should be willing to pay for these companies must also be finite.

  • Price is truly an important factor for the enterprising investor.

  • Just like the market tends to overvalue

  • companies when they have been growing fast or is glamorous for some other reason, it tends to undervalue the ones with

  • unsatisfactory development. The intelligent investor should therefore try to avoid so-called "growth stocks" as much as possible. Why?

  • Simply because the investment decision is based relatively more on future earnings, and future earnings are less reliable than current valuations.

  • If you, on the other hand, can find a company which is valued lower than its net working capital,

  • you essentially pay nothing for all the fixed assets, such as buildings, machinery goodwill, etc.

  • The net working capital can be calculated by subtracting total liabilities from current assets.

  • Such companies were proven truly profitable during Graham's investment career.

  • Unfortunately, they are rare today except during tough bear markets.

  • Luckily, Graham suggests an additional method of finding investments for the enterprising investor.

  • These criteria are similar to the ones that the defensive investors should use, but the constraints are looser,

  • allowing for the enterprising investor to consider more companies. Note that there is no constraint at all regarding company size.

  • Also, some diversification should be applied,

  • but the number of companies held isn't carved in stone for the active investor.

  • In analyzing a company, the enterprising investor should also study its annual financial reports.

  • Graham has written a whole book on this subject called "The Interpretation of Financial Statements." So we should speak more about this, on another occasion.

  • Takeaway number 4: Insist on a margin of safety.

  • There's one risk that no careful consideration can truly eliminate: the risk of being wrong.

  • You can, however, minimize this risk. To do this,

  • you must insist that every investment you make has a "margin of safety".

  • As mentioned before, the price and value of a company is not always the same.

  • When the price is at most two thirds of its calculated value, the investor has found a company with enough margin of safety.

  • You wouldn't construct a ship that sinks if 31 Viking boarded it, if you know that it regularly will be used to transport 30 of them.

  • Neither should you invest in stock that you think is worth, say, $31 if it currently is priced at $30.

  • It might be that your calculation is wrong. In the first case, a group of angry (and wet)

  • Vikings might hunt you down. In the second, you might postpone your financial freedom by a couple of years.

  • I don't know which situation that I'd consider to be worse: Use margins of safety!

  • A formula used in the book can give you some heads up regarding what the value of a company is, and therefore also if it can

  • be bought with a margin of safety.

  • Value = current (normal) earnings x 8.5 + 2 x expected annual growth rate

  • The growth rate should be equal to the expected yearly growth rate of earnings for the next 7 to 10 years.

  • Here's how much the three largest companies of the S&P 500 are worth according to the formula in September 2018:

  • Note that we can use the formula backwards too, to trace how much these companies must grow in the coming 7 to 10 years for

  • today's stock prices to be rational. There's a huge discrepancy here!

  • Amazon is expected to grow at 74% per year according to its stock price, while Apple is expected to grow at a mere 5.8%.

  • Do you think that this is reasonable?

  • Takeaway number 5: Risk and reward are not always correlated.

  • According to academic theory, the rate of return which an investor can expect must be

  • proportional to the degree of risk that he's willing to accept. Risk is then measured as the volatility of the returns on the investment,

  • meaning, how much it has differed historically from its expected value. Graham doesn't agree with this statement.

  • Instead, he argues that the price and value of assets often are disconnected.

  • Therefore, the return that an investor can expect is a function of how much time and effort

  • he brings in his pursuit of finding bargain assets.

  • The minimum return goes to the defensive (or passive) investor, while the maximum goes to the enterprising investor who exercises

  • maximum intelligence and skill.

  • Consider this:

  • It's 4:00 a.m in the morning,

  • and you've been out drinking in the streets of Moscow together with your friends. You decide that it's too early to call it a night,

  • and therefore you end up in the more obscure parts of town. At a particularly ambiguous bar you're approached by a man

  • who asks: "Do you want to play a game?"

  • "Well, of course, games are fun!" your bravest least sober friend replies. The man puts a revolving in front of you,

  • which is loaded with a single bullet.

  • "I'll give you $10,000 if you dare to take a shot, Russian Roulette." Your drunk friend reaches out for the gun,

  • but you stop him. "I think we'll pass on this one " you politely inform the man. "I thought so" he replies ...

  • "What about $100,000 for taking two shots?"

  • Now, this story

  • represents the academic way of demanding a higher potential reward for taking a higher risk. In the first offer, you were to receive

  • $10,000 at a

  • 16.7% risk of blowing your brains out. In the second offer, the reward is

  • $100,000 because the risk of putting a hole through your head has increased to 33.3%.

  • Seems logical, right? But stock market investing doesn't have to be like that!

  • Remember that price and value are not the same. When you buy a company at 60 cents on the dollar,

  • you have a great potential reward, and a low risk.

  • Furthermore, if you can find another company that you can buy at 40 cents on the dollar, you have found a better potential reward,

  • combined with an even lower risk!

  • How could anyone in their right mind argue that it's riskier to buy a dollar at the price of 40 cents than to buy a

  • dollar at 60 cents, just because the potential reward is higher?

  • Quick recap of the five takeaways:

  • Firstly the market tends to be over-optimistic and too pessimistic from time to time.

  • Don't let this influence what you think the true value of your assets are. Instead, see it as a business opportunity,

  • where you get to deal with a person who has no idea of what he's doing!

  • Secondly, the defensive investor should go for a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, where the stock category consists of primarily low-priced issues.

  • Thirdly, the enterprising investor should also aim for stocks that show lower price tendencies. If he can find a company that is trading below its

  • net working capital, he might have found his El Dorado. The fourth takeaway

  • Is that the intelligent investor should insist on a margin of safety when acquiring an asset. And finally, takeaway number 5 is that risk

  • and reward aren't necessarily correlated.

  • What do you think of Graham's advice? Are they still as applicable today, as they were back in the

  • 1970s? Share your thoughts with other viewers in the comments below. As always, if you want me to summarize a

  • book on investing, personal finance or money management, please comment on that as well.

  • And if you find that any of the takeaways of this book is especially interesting and want me to elaborate on it,

  • don't be shy, you may comment on that too! Thanks for watching guys and have a good one!

Successful investing does not require stratospheric IQ, insider information, or luck for that matte.r

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聰明的投資者摘要(作者:本傑明-格雷厄姆 (THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR SUMMARY (BY BENJAMIN GRAHAM))

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    Amy.Lin 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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