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  • - [Instructor] This is a chart from "The New York Times,"

  • that shows us how per capita GDP has trended

  • on an inflation adjusted basis since 1947.

  • So you can really think about this

  • as the post World War II era.

  • World War II of course ended in 1945.

  • It's always good to read the fine print

  • to make sure we understand what this is telling us

  • and what it's not telling us.

  • As I mentioned, it is adjusted for inflation.

  • It also says that the incomes given here

  • are post tax and include government benefits.

  • So if someone's getting a government benefit

  • of a certain value per year,

  • that would be included in their income here.

  • And, if someone is say, making $100,000,

  • but paying $35,000 in taxes,

  • then the income is post tax.

  • It'd be the $100,000 minus the $35,000,

  • or $65,000.

  • And there's several interesting things here.

  • This is showing us growth since 1947.

  • So it's not that folks in 1947,

  • that we had a zero per capita GDP,

  • or that there was zero income.

  • It's just obviously in 1947

  • you haven't had any growth since 1947.

  • And then as you move forward in time,

  • over roughly the next 30 years,

  • you get to about 1980,

  • it looks like you've had about 100% growth.

  • Now whenever I think in terms of percentage growth,

  • 100% growth, 200% growth,

  • I always like to do a little bit of a reality check

  • of how would that compare to where I started?

  • I like to view the 0% growth as 100%

  • of 1947.

  • I'll make another axis here on the right

  • to supplement what's already there.

  • So this would be 100% of 1947.

  • Then, if I grow 100% from that,

  • that's the same thing as doubling.

  • So 200% of 1947.

  • This right over here,

  • if I grow by 200%, that means I am at

  • 300% of 1947.

  • And then if I've grown by 300%,

  • that means I am at

  • 400% of 1947.

  • So one way to think about it is

  • over the course of the 30 years,

  • or 33 years from 1947 to 1980,

  • it looks like inflation adjusted per capita GDP

  • has essentially doubled.

  • It has grown by 100%.

  • And it also looks like in this yellow line

  • where they're telling us the average income

  • for the bottom 90%.

  • So bottom 90%.

  • That's essentially everyone but the top 10%.

  • It looks like it's roughly tracked per capita GDP.

  • In fact it looks like it might have been

  • a little bit ahead of that over some of those years.

  • So if you go from 1947 to 1980,

  • per capita GDP has roughly doubled.

  • And, average incomes for that bottom 90%

  • has roughly doubled.

  • Now something interesting, or at least this graph

  • is highlighting something that might be interesting,

  • over the next 40 year period,

  • from 1980 to roughly today,

  • which is per capita GDP has continued

  • to trend upward at a seemingly similar rate.

  • But, the income, the average income for the bottom 90%

  • does not seem to keep pace with that.

  • In other videos we looked at 1980 to now

  • and we saw this trend.

  • But we didn't have the historical data from 1947 to 1980

  • to see that you don't always see this.

  • And in order for that to happen,

  • that means that the top 10% must be growing faster.

  • I'm just making up some curve like that.

  • It must be going at a faster rate.

  • And even this might be surprising some of you.

  • You might say, all right,

  • the bottom 90% is not growing as fast

  • as the average across the country,

  • but by this measure it looks

  • like on an inflation adjusted after tax basis,

  • the bottom 90% is at 300% of 1947 now, give or take,

  • and it was at 200% of 1947 in 1980, give or take.

  • Which means that the standard of living

  • since 1980 should have improved by about 50%

  • for this bottom 90% group.

  • And I know for a lot of y'all who have been around

  • since 1980 or who know about 1980,

  • says well maybe that's the case.

  • Most of us definitely have better computing power now,

  • we have nicer large screen flat TVs.

  • We have cheaper manufactured goods.

  • But other things feel harder for a lot of folks

  • than 1980.

  • Things like buying a house.

  • Or healthcare.

  • Or college tuition.

  • And that goes to something that we will probably

  • dig into more in other videos.

  • And that's how inflation is measured.

  • I'm not gonna go into detail.

  • Other parts of Khan Academy we talk about

  • how inflation is measured and

  • the Consumer Price Index.

  • But whenever you look at any statistics,

  • it's always important to think about

  • how are they calculated?

  • What are the underlying assumptions?

  • Because inflation is trying to capture

  • how much can you buy with a certain amount of money?

  • But that calculation is dependent on

  • what you think people are buying.

  • Or how you measure the cost of it.

  • So we'll talk about that in future videos.

  • But the big takeaway here is

  • is that the historic trend is that the bottom 90%

  • has roughly grown with per capita GDP.

  • But it seems like there's something about the last 40 years,

  • whether it's tax policy, monetary policy,

  • demographic changes, technology,

  • globalization, education,

  • and maybe all of the above,

  • that has led to a change in the trend.

- [Instructor] This is a chart from "The New York Times,"

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過去70年的人均GDP趨勢|宏觀經濟|可汗學院 (Per capita GDP trends over past 70 years | Macroeconomics | Khan Academy)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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