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  • Cities are the crucible of civilization.

    都市是文明的大熔爐

  • They have been expanding,

    它們持續擴大,

  • urbanization has been expanding,

    都市化持續的擴展,

  • at an exponential rate in the last 200 years

    兩百多年來隨指數率而爆增

  • so that by the second part of this century,

    以致後半世紀來臨前

  • the planet will be completely dominated

    地球將完全

  • by cities.

    被都市佔據。

  • Cities are the origins of global warming,

    都市是全球暖化形成的起因,

  • impact on the environment,

    直接影響環境、

  • health, pollution, disease,

    健康、污染、疾病、

  • finance,

    財政、

  • economies, energy --

    經濟、能源

  • they're all problems

    這些問題全是

  • that are confronted by having cities.

    因為都市的存在所遭遇到的

  • That's where all these problems come from.

    都市是這些問題形成的起源。

  • And the tsunami of problems that we feel we're facing

    我們認為我們正面臨地震海嘯之困境

  • in terms of sustainability questions

    ──永續生存方面的問題──

  • are actually a reflection

    實際則是一個

  • of the exponential increase

    全球都市化

  • in urbanization across the planet.

    指數增長的反映。

  • Here's some numbers.

    看看這些數據

  • Two hundred years ago, the United States

    兩百年以前,美國

  • was less than a few percent urbanized.

    都市化低於幾個百分比;

  • It's now more than 82 percent.

    現在超過百分之八十二。

  • The planet has crossed the halfway mark a few years ago.

    幾年前地球都市化已逾百分之五十,

  • China's building 300 new cities

    中國將建造三百座新都市

  • in the next 20 years.

    在下個二十年。

  • Now listen to this:

    現在聽聽這個:

  • Every week for the foreseeable future,

    可預見之未來的每一週,

  • until 2050,

    一直至2050年

  • every week more than a million people

    每週有超過百萬人口

  • are being added to our cities.

    增添到這個都市

  • This is going to affect everything.

    這將會影響一切事物。

  • Everybody in this room, if you stay alive,

    這演講廳的每個人──若你們仍然活著的話──

  • is going to be affected

    都會受都市裡

  • by what's happening in cities

    發生的事所影響

  • in this extraordinary phenomenon.

    這是非比尋常的現象。

  • However, cities,

    然而,都市本身

  • despite having this negative aspect to them,

    ──儘管有這不利的層面存在──

  • are also the solution.

    也還是解決的方法。

  • Because cities are the vacuum cleaners and the magnets

    因為都市是吸塵器和磁鐵

  • that have sucked up creative people,

    已吸入了富有創造力的人群、

  • creating ideas, innovation,

    有創意的點子、創新、

  • wealth and so on.

    資源等等。

  • So we have this kind of dual nature.

    所以有這種二元性存在。

  • And so there's an urgent need

    因而迫切需要

  • for a scientific theory of cities.

    都市科學理論。

  • Now these are my comrades in arms.

    這些是我戰友的名字

  • This work has been done with an extraordinary group of people,

    這項研究成果是與一群非凡的人共同完成的,

  • and they've done all the work,

    他們完成所有的研究工作,

  • and I'm the great bullshitter

    而我是瞎掰天王

  • that tries to bring it all together.

    試著將研究發現牽扯在一塊。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑笑)

  • So here's the problem: This is what we all want.

    問題來啦:這是我們都想要的,

  • The 10 billion people on the planet in 2050

    到了2050年,地球上會有百億人口

  • want to live in places like this,

    想要住在像這樣的地方;

  • having things like this,

    擁有像這樣的東西;

  • doing things like this,

    做這類的事情;

  • with economies that are growing like this,

    還有,經濟有如此的成長;

  • not realizing that entropy

    卻不了解「熵」

  • produces things like this,

    產生像這樣的東西,

  • this, this

    這個、這個

  • and this.

    和這個。

  • And the question is:

    問題是

  • Is that what Edinburgh and London and New York

    那是愛丁堡、倫敦和紐約

  • are going to look like in 2050,

    在2050年時的樣貌,

  • or is it going to be this?

    或者是會像這樣?

  • That's the question.

    那是個問題。

  • I must say, many of the indicators

    我必須說,很多的指標

  • look like this is what it's going to look like,

    指向這個是它將來的樣貌,

  • but let's talk about it.

    那我們就來談談它。

  • So my provocative statement

    我的挑戰論點是

  • is that we desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities.

    我們極需要一個嚴謹的都市科學理論。

  • And scientific theory means quantifiable --

    而科學理論是指可計量的──

  • relying on underlying generic principles

    依據根本的通則,

  • that can be made into a predictive framework.

    能導出可預測的架構。

  • That's the quest.

    那得經過長期的探索。

  • Is that conceivable?

    那可信嗎?

  • Are there universal laws?

    有普遍法則嗎?

  • So here's two questions

    所以,有兩個問題:

  • that I have in my head when I think about this problem.

    在思考這個問題時,我想到的。

  • The first is:

    第一個是:

  • Are cities part of biology?

    都市是生物的一部分嗎?

  • Is London a great big whale?

    倫敦是條巨鯨?

  • Is Edinburgh a horse?

    愛丁堡是匹馬嗎?

  • Is Microsoft a great big anthill?

    微軟是一個超大的蟻丘嗎?

  • What do we learn from that?

    我們從那學到什麼?

  • We use them metaphorically --

    我們將其暗喻化

  • the DNA of a company, the metabolism of a city, and so on --

    ──公司的DNA、一座都市的新陳代謝等等──

  • is that just bullshit, metaphorical bullshit,

    那只是胡扯嗎?隱喻法的爛用嗎?

  • or is there serious substance to it?

    或有重要的含義嗎?

  • And if that is the case,

    若真是這樣,

  • how come that it's very hard to kill a city?

    殺死一個都市怎麼那麼難?

  • You could drop an atom bomb on a city,

    你可以在都市丟顆原子彈,

  • and 30 years later it's surviving.

    三十年後它仍然存在

  • Very few cities fail.

    幾乎沒有都市會消失;

  • All companies die, all companies.

    所有的企業會死亡......,所有企業。

  • And if you have a serious theory, you should be able to predict

    而且若你有嚴謹的理論,你該可以預測

  • when Google is going to go bust.

    何時Google要倒閉。

  • So is that just another version

    那麼,「都市」只是「叢林」的另一個

  • of this?

    說法囉?

  • Well we understand this very well.

    我們對這點有相當的研究。

  • That is, you ask any generic question about this --

    也就是,你提出任何一般性的問題,如:

  • how many trees of a given size,

    特定大小的樹有多少,

  • how many branches of a given size does a tree have,

    一棵樹有多少特定大小的樹枝,

  • how many leaves,

    有多少葉子,

  • what is the energy flowing through each branch,

    遍佈每枝樹枝的能量是什麼,

  • what is the size of the canopy,

    天篷有多大

  • what is its growth, what is its mortality?

    它的成長特性?何時死亡?

  • We have a mathematical framework

    我們有一個數學架構,

  • based on generic universal principles

    是基於一般普遍原則而導出的

  • that can answer those questions.

    能夠回答那樣的問題。

  • And the idea is can we do the same for this?

    而構想是我們能為都市/企業做同樣的事嗎?

  • So the route in is recognizing

    所以,解答的路徑是認清

  • one of the most extraordinary things about life,

    與生命有關的最非凡的事物之一是

  • is that it is scalable,

    它是可縮放的,

  • it works over an extraordinary range.

    它運作範圍相當驚人

  • This is just a tiny range actually:

    事實上,這只是一個極小的範圍,

  • It's us mammals;

    我們人類是哺乳動物

  • we're one of these.

    我們是哺乳動物之一

  • The same principles, the same dynamics,

    相同的原則、相同的生物動力學、

  • the same organization is at work

    相同的系統,產生特殊作用在

  • in all of these, including us,

    所有這些生物體,包括我們在內,

  • and it can scale over a range of 100 million in size.

    而且,它縮放含蓋大小範圍超過一億萬。

  • And that is one of the main reasons

    再說,那是主要理由之一

  • life is so resilient and robust --

    生命是多麼地有韌性和堅實

  • scalability.

    縮放自如。

  • We're going to discuss that in a moment more.

    再一會兒,我們會再多加討論這部分。

  • But you know, at a local level,

    但你知道,以局部的角度而論,

  • you scale; everybody in this room is scaled.

    你縮放,在這房內的每個人隨著縮放。

  • That's called growth.

    那就是所謂的成長。

  • Here's how you grew.

    這是你們成長的情形。

  • Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.

    老鼠,那是隻老鼠,可能本來是你,

  • We're all pretty much the same.

    我們有相當多雷同的地方。

  • And you see, you're very familiar with this.

    而且你們看,你們對這個非常熟悉,

  • You grow very quickly and then you stop.

    你長得非常快,然後停了下來。

  • And that line there

    那條曲線

  • is a prediction from the same theory,

    是來自相同理論的一個預測,

  • based on the same principles,

    基於相同的原則,

  • that describes that forest.

    此原則也用來敍述(前述)那座森林。

  • And here it is for the growth of a rat,

    而在這兒,是用來敍述一隻老鼠的成長

  • and those points on there are data points.

    那些點點是數據點。

  • This is just the weight versus the age.

    此圖是重量對上年紀

  • And you see, it stops growing.

    你看,線條停止發展

  • Very, very good for biology --

    對生物而言是非常合適的

  • also one of the reasons for its great resilience.

    ──也是作為它極佳韌性的解釋之一──

  • Very, very bad

    但卻非常非常不利,

  • for economies and companies and cities

    對經濟、企業、都市而言;

  • in our present paradigm.

    這是從我們目前的範例看來,

  • This is what we believe.

    這是我們所認為的。

  • This is what our whole economy

    這是我們整體的經濟制度

  • is thrusting upon us,

    強加諸在我們身上的......,

  • particularly illustrated in that left-hand corner:

    具體地顯示在左邊角落:

  • hockey sticks.

    曲棍球棒。

  • This is a bunch of software companies --

    這是一堆的軟體公司

  • and what it is is their revenue versus their age --

    ──收入對上經營年資──

  • all zooming away,

    急遽上升

  • and everybody making millions and billions of dollars.

    而且每個人都賺好幾百萬和好幾十億的美元

  • Okay, so how do we understand this?

    Okay,那麼我們如何了解其內含?

  • So let's first talk about biology.

    讓我們先談談生態學。

  • This is explicitly showing you

    這張圖清楚的顯示

  • how things scale,

    事物縮放的情形。

  • and this is a truly remarkable graph.

    這是一張非常值得注意的圖表。

  • What is plotted here is metabolic rate --

    這張圖標繪的是新陳代謝率

  • how much energy you need per day to stay alive --

    你每天需要多少能量以維持生存

  • versus your weight, your mass,

    對上你的體重,你的質量

  • for all of us bunch of organisms.

    通用於我們這群有機體

  • And it's plotted in this funny way by going up by factors of 10,

    這張圖是以好玩的方式繪製──以十倍等系數增加,

  • otherwise you couldn't get everything on the graph.

    否則無法把所有的東西放進圖表上。

  • And what you see if you plot it

    而且你看到的是──若你以

  • in this slightly curious way

    略為奇怪的方式來繪製它──

  • is that everybody lies on the same line.

    每個人都在相同的線上。

  • Despite the fact that this is the most complex and diverse system

    儘管事實是,這是在宇宙中最複雜又

  • in the universe,

    多樣化的系統,

  • there's an extraordinary simplicity

    有個極其簡單易懂的事物

  • being expressed by this.

    藉由這個系統傳遞。

  • It's particularly astonishing

    尤其驚人是,

  • because each one of these organisms,

    由於各個有機體、

  • each subsystem, each cell type, each gene,

    各別次系統、各別細胞種類、各別基因

  • has evolved in its own unique environmental niche

    在自己獨特的環境利基中,已逐漸演化

  • with its own unique history.

    且有自己獨一無二的歷史。

  • And yet, despite all of that Darwinian evolution

    然而,儘管達爾文進化論和

  • and natural selection,

    自然淘汰存在,

  • they've been constrained to lie on a line.

    他們已受限於立足在同一條線。

  • Something else is going on.

    有某個重要的東西正在運作。

  • Before I talk about that,

    在談論那以前,

  • I've written down at the bottom there

    我已在下方寫下

  • the slope of this curve, this straight line.

    這條曲線的斜率,這條直線。

  • It's three-quarters, roughly,

    約略為3/4(又四分之三)

  • which is less than one -- and we call that sublinear.

    小於1,我們稱那「次線性」。

  • And here's the point of that.

    那有個重點

  • It says that, if it were linear,

    就是說:若它是「線性」的

  • the steepest slope,

    最陡的斜度,

  • then doubling the size

    那麼加倍放大其尺寸

  • you would require double the amount of energy.

    你會需要加倍的能量。

  • But it's sublinear, and what that translates into

    但它是「次線性」, 也就是說:

  • is that, if you double the size of the organism,

    若你加大有機體的尺寸

  • you actually only need 75 percent more energy.

    你其實只需要多百分之七十五的能量。

  • So a wonderful thing about all of biology

    因此,有關生態學的一件奇妙的事是

  • is that it expresses an extraordinary economy of scale.

    它揭露一個不尋常的規模經濟

  • The bigger you are systematically,

    你有系統地變得越大

  • according to very well-defined rules,

    ──根據非常明確定義的規則──

  • less energy per capita.

    每個人需要的能量越少。

  • Now any physiological variable you can think of,

    現在你能想到的任何物理變數;

  • any life history event you can think of,

    你能想到的任何生活史事件,

  • if you plot it this way, looks like this.

    如果以這個方式繪製它,會像這樣。

  • There is an extraordinary regularity.

    有個驚奇的規律性。

  • So you tell me the size of a mammal,

    這麼說吧!你告我哺乳動物的大小,

  • I can tell you at the 90 percent level everything about it

    我能告訴你百分之九十與其相關的事,

  • in terms of its physiology, life history, etc.

    它的生理機能、生活史等等。

  • And the reason for this is because of networks.

    而之所以能如此,是因為「脈絡」

  • All of life is controlled by networks --

    所有的生命受制於脈絡──

  • from the intracellular through the multicellular

    從細胞內到多細胞

  • through the ecosystem level.

    到生態系統層面。

  • And you're very familiar with these networks.

    而且你們對這些脈絡非常熟悉。

  • That's a little thing that lives inside an elephant.

    那是存在大象內的一個小東西。

  • And here's the summary of what I'm saying.

    接著,這是我所談之事的摘要,

  • If you take those networks,

    若你利用這些脈絡,

  • this idea of networks,

    脈絡這個點子

  • and you apply universal principles,

    並運用普遍原則

  • mathematizable, universal principles,

    ──數學的普遍原則:

  • all of these scalings

    所有這些呈線性變換縮放

  • and all of these constraints follow,

    及所有這些約束跟著仿效

  • including the description of the forest,

    包括森林的描繪、

  • the description of your circulatory system,

    你們循環系統的描繪、

  • the description within cells.

    細胞內的描繪。

  • One of the things I did not stress in that introduction

    有件事我沒有在開頭介紹時強調的是

  • was that, systematically, the pace of life

    生命的節奏有系統地減緩,

  • decreases as you get bigger.

    當你變得越大。

  • Heart rates are slower; you live longer;

    心跳率越慢,你活得越久;

  • diffusion of oxygen and resources

    氧氣和資源

  • across membranes is slower, etc.

    在整個黏膜擴散得越慢等等。

  • The question is: Is any of this true

    問題是:對都市和企業而言

  • for cities and companies?

    這是真的嗎?

  • So is London a scaled up Birmingham,

    那麼倫敦是一個放大的伯明罕

  • which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.?

    伯明罕是一個放大的布萊頓......等等?

  • Is New York a scaled up San Francisco,

    紐約是一個放大的舊金山?

  • which is a scaled up Santa Fe?

    舊金山是放大的聖塔菲(Santa Fe)嗎?

  • Don't know. We will discuss that.

    不曉得,我們會討論到那點。

  • But they are networks,

    但它們是脈絡。

  • and the most important network of cities

    而最重要的都市脈絡

  • is you.

    是你。

  • Cities are just a physical manifestation

    都市只是個物理的明顯跡象──

  • of your interactions,

    你們的交流、

  • our interactions,

    我們的交流、

  • and the clustering and grouping of individuals.

    及許多個體結群和聚集的產物。

  • Here's just a symbolic picture of that.

    這只是一幅象徵脈絡的圖。

  • And here's scaling of cities.

    而這是都市的縮放

  • This shows that in this very simple example,

    這張圖以非常簡單的例子來說明脈絡

  • which happens to be a mundane example

    而且恰好是個平凡的例子

  • of number of petrol stations

    ──加油站的數字

  • as a function of size --

    為隨規模大小變化的因素

  • plotted in the same way as the biology --

    ──如標繪生態學一般繪製──

  • you see exactly the same kind of thing.

    你看到的確實是同類東西

  • There is a scaling.

    這是縮放圖

  • That is that the number of petrol stations in