They have been expanding,

它們持續擴大,

urbanization has been expanding,

都市化持續的擴展,

at an exponential rate in the last 200 years

兩百多年來隨指數率而爆增

so that by the second part of this century,

以致後半世紀來臨前

the planet will be completely dominated

地球將完全

by cities.

被都市佔據。

Cities are the origins of global warming,

都市是全球暖化形成的起因,

impact on the environment,

直接影響環境、

health, pollution, disease,

健康、污染、疾病、

finance,

財政、

economies, energy --

經濟、能源

they're all problems

這些問題全是

that are confronted by having cities.

因為都市的存在所遭遇到的

That's where all these problems come from.

都市是這些問題形成的起源。

And the tsunami of problems that we feel we're facing

我們認為我們正面臨地震海嘯之困境

in terms of sustainability questions

──永續生存方面的問題──

are actually a reflection

實際則是一個

of the exponential increase

全球都市化

in urbanization across the planet.

指數增長的反映。

Here's some numbers.

看看這些數據

Two hundred years ago, the United States

兩百年以前,美國

was less than a few percent urbanized.

都市化低於幾個百分比；

It's now more than 82 percent.

現在超過百分之八十二。

The planet has crossed the halfway mark a few years ago.

幾年前地球都市化已逾百分之五十,

China's building 300 new cities

中國將建造三百座新都市

in the next 20 years.

在下個二十年。

Now listen to this:

現在聽聽這個:

Every week for the foreseeable future,

可預見之未來的每一週,

until 2050,

一直至2050年

every week more than a million people

每週有超過百萬人口

are being added to our cities.

增添到這個都市

This is going to affect everything.

這將會影響一切事物。

Everybody in this room, if you stay alive,

這演講廳的每個人──若你們仍然活著的話──

is going to be affected

都會受都市裡

by what's happening in cities

發生的事所影響

in this extraordinary phenomenon.

這是非比尋常的現象。

However, cities,

然而,都市本身

despite having this negative aspect to them,

──儘管有這不利的層面存在──

are also the solution.

也還是解決的方法。

Because cities are the vacuum cleaners and the magnets

因為都市是吸塵器和磁鐵

that have sucked up creative people,

已吸入了富有創造力的人群、

creating ideas, innovation,

有創意的點子、創新、

wealth and so on.

資源等等。

So we have this kind of dual nature.

所以有這種二元性存在。

And so there's an urgent need

因而迫切需要

for a scientific theory of cities.

都市科學理論。

Now these are my comrades in arms.

這些是我戰友的名字

This work has been done with an extraordinary group of people,

這項研究成果是與一群非凡的人共同完成的,

and they've done all the work,

他們完成所有的研究工作,

and I'm the great bullshitter

而我是瞎掰天王

that tries to bring it all together.

試著將研究發現牽扯在一塊。

(Laughter)

(笑笑)

So here's the problem: This is what we all want.

問題來啦:這是我們都想要的,

The 10 billion people on the planet in 2050

到了2050年,地球上會有百億人口

want to live in places like this,

想要住在像這樣的地方；

having things like this,

擁有像這樣的東西；

doing things like this,

做這類的事情；

with economies that are growing like this,

還有,經濟有如此的成長；

not realizing that entropy

卻不了解「熵」

produces things like this,

產生像這樣的東西,

this, this

這個、這個

and this.

和這個。

And the question is:

問題是

Is that what Edinburgh and London and New York

那是愛丁堡、倫敦和紐約

are going to look like in 2050,

在2050年時的樣貌,

or is it going to be this?

或者是會像這樣?

That's the question.

那是個問題。

I must say, many of the indicators

我必須說,很多的指標

look like this is what it's going to look like,

指向這個是它將來的樣貌,

but let's talk about it.

那我們就來談談它。

So my provocative statement

我的挑戰論點是

is that we desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities.

我們極需要一個嚴謹的都市科學理論。

And scientific theory means quantifiable --

而科學理論是指可計量的──

relying on underlying generic principles

依據根本的通則,

that can be made into a predictive framework.

能導出可預測的架構。

That's the quest.

那得經過長期的探索。

Is that conceivable?

那可信嗎?

Are there universal laws?

有普遍法則嗎?

So here's two questions

所以,有兩個問題:

that I have in my head when I think about this problem.

在思考這個問題時,我想到的。

The first is:

第一個是:

Are cities part of biology?

都市是生物的一部分嗎?

Is London a great big whale?

倫敦是條巨鯨?

Is Edinburgh a horse?

愛丁堡是匹馬嗎?

Is Microsoft a great big anthill?

微軟是一個超大的蟻丘嗎?

What do we learn from that?

我們從那學到什麼?

We use them metaphorically --

我們將其暗喻化

the DNA of a company, the metabolism of a city, and so on --

──公司的DNA、一座都市的新陳代謝等等──

is that just bullshit, metaphorical bullshit,

那只是胡扯嗎?隱喻法的爛用嗎?

or is there serious substance to it?

或有重要的含義嗎?

And if that is the case,

若真是這樣,

how come that it's very hard to kill a city?

殺死一個都市怎麼那麼難?

You could drop an atom bomb on a city,

你可以在都市丟顆原子彈,

and 30 years later it's surviving.

三十年後它仍然存在

Very few cities fail.

幾乎沒有都市會消失；

All companies die, all companies.

所有的企業會死亡......,所有企業。

And if you have a serious theory, you should be able to predict

而且若你有嚴謹的理論,你該可以預測

when Google is going to go bust.

何時Google要倒閉。

So is that just another version

那麼,「都市」只是「叢林」的另一個

of this?

說法囉?

Well we understand this very well.

我們對這點有相當的研究。

That is, you ask any generic question about this --

也就是,你提出任何一般性的問題,如:

how many trees of a given size,

特定大小的樹有多少,

how many branches of a given size does a tree have,

一棵樹有多少特定大小的樹枝,

how many leaves,

有多少葉子,

what is the energy flowing through each branch,

遍佈每枝樹枝的能量是什麼,

what is the size of the canopy,

天篷有多大

what is its growth, what is its mortality?

它的成長特性?何時死亡?

We have a mathematical framework

我們有一個數學架構,

based on generic universal principles

是基於一般普遍原則而導出的

that can answer those questions.

能夠回答那樣的問題。

And the idea is can we do the same for this?

而構想是我們能為都市/企業做同樣的事嗎？

So the route in is recognizing

所以,解答的路徑是認清

one of the most extraordinary things about life,

與生命有關的最非凡的事物之一是

is that it is scalable,

它是可縮放的,

it works over an extraordinary range.

它運作範圍相當驚人

This is just a tiny range actually:

事實上,這只是一個極小的範圍,

It's us mammals;

我們人類是哺乳動物

we're one of these.

我們是哺乳動物之一

The same principles, the same dynamics,

相同的原則、相同的生物動力學、

the same organization is at work

相同的系統,產生特殊作用在

in all of these, including us,

所有這些生物體,包括我們在內,

and it can scale over a range of 100 million in size.

而且,它縮放含蓋大小範圍超過一億萬。

And that is one of the main reasons

再說,那是主要理由之一

life is so resilient and robust --

生命是多麼地有韌性和堅實

scalability.

縮放自如。

We're going to discuss that in a moment more.

再一會兒,我們會再多加討論這部分。

But you know, at a local level,

但你知道,以局部的角度而論,

you scale; everybody in this room is scaled.

你縮放,在這房內的每個人隨著縮放。

That's called growth.

那就是所謂的成長。

Here's how you grew.

這是你們成長的情形。

Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.

老鼠,那是隻老鼠,可能本來是你,

We're all pretty much the same.

我們有相當多雷同的地方。

And you see, you're very familiar with this.

而且你們看,你們對這個非常熟悉,

You grow very quickly and then you stop.

你長得非常快,然後停了下來。

And that line there

那條曲線

is a prediction from the same theory,

是來自相同理論的一個預測,

based on the same principles,

基於相同的原則,

that describes that forest.

此原則也用來敍述(前述)那座森林。

And here it is for the growth of a rat,

而在這兒,是用來敍述一隻老鼠的成長

and those points on there are data points.

那些點點是數據點。

This is just the weight versus the age.

此圖是重量對上年紀

And you see, it stops growing.

你看,線條停止發展

Very, very good for biology --

對生物而言是非常合適的

also one of the reasons for its great resilience.

──也是作為它極佳韌性的解釋之一──

Very, very bad

但卻非常非常不利,

for economies and companies and cities

對經濟、企業、都市而言;

in our present paradigm.

這是從我們目前的範例看來,

This is what we believe.

這是我們所認為的。

This is what our whole economy

這是我們整體的經濟制度

is thrusting upon us,

強加諸在我們身上的......,

particularly illustrated in that left-hand corner:

具體地顯示在左邊角落:

hockey sticks.

曲棍球棒。

This is a bunch of software companies --

這是一堆的軟體公司

and what it is is their revenue versus their age --

──收入對上經營年資──

all zooming away,

急遽上升

and everybody making millions and billions of dollars.

而且每個人都賺好幾百萬和好幾十億的美元

Okay, so how do we understand this?

Okay,那麼我們如何了解其內含?

So let's first talk about biology.

讓我們先談談生態學。

This is explicitly showing you

這張圖清楚的顯示

how things scale,

事物縮放的情形。

and this is a truly remarkable graph.

這是一張非常值得注意的圖表。

What is plotted here is metabolic rate --

這張圖標繪的是新陳代謝率

how much energy you need per day to stay alive --

你每天需要多少能量以維持生存

versus your weight, your mass,

對上你的體重,你的質量

for all of us bunch of organisms.

通用於我們這群有機體

And it's plotted in this funny way by going up by factors of 10,

這張圖是以好玩的方式繪製──以十倍等系數增加,

otherwise you couldn't get everything on the graph.

否則無法把所有的東西放進圖表上。

And what you see if you plot it

而且你看到的是──若你以

in this slightly curious way

略為奇怪的方式來繪製它──

is that everybody lies on the same line.

每個人都在相同的線上。

Despite the fact that this is the most complex and diverse system

儘管事實是,這是在宇宙中最複雜又

in the universe,

多樣化的系統,

there's an extraordinary simplicity

有個極其簡單易懂的事物

being expressed by this.

藉由這個系統傳遞。

It's particularly astonishing

尤其驚人是,

because each one of these organisms,

由於各個有機體、

each subsystem, each cell type, each gene,

各別次系統、各別細胞種類、各別基因

has evolved in its own unique environmental niche

在自己獨特的環境利基中,已逐漸演化

with its own unique history.

且有自己獨一無二的歷史。

And yet, despite all of that Darwinian evolution

然而,儘管達爾文進化論和

and natural selection,

自然淘汰存在,

they've been constrained to lie on a line.

他們已受限於立足在同一條線。

Something else is going on.

有某個重要的東西正在運作。

Before I talk about that,

在談論那以前,

I've written down at the bottom there

我已在下方寫下

the slope of this curve, this straight line.

這條曲線的斜率,這條直線。

It's three-quarters, roughly,

約略為3/4(又四分之三)

which is less than one -- and we call that sublinear.

小於1,我們稱那「次線性」。

And here's the point of that.

那有個重點

It says that, if it were linear,

就是說:若它是「線性」的

the steepest slope,

最陡的斜度,

then doubling the size

那麼加倍放大其尺寸

you would require double the amount of energy.

你會需要加倍的能量。

But it's sublinear, and what that translates into

但它是「次線性」, 也就是說:

is that, if you double the size of the organism,

若你加大有機體的尺寸

you actually only need 75 percent more energy.

你其實只需要多百分之七十五的能量。

So a wonderful thing about all of biology

因此,有關生態學的一件奇妙的事是

is that it expresses an extraordinary economy of scale.

它揭露一個不尋常的規模經濟

The bigger you are systematically,

你有系統地變得越大

according to very well-defined rules,

──根據非常明確定義的規則──

less energy per capita.

每個人需要的能量越少。

Now any physiological variable you can think of,

現在你能想到的任何物理變數；

any life history event you can think of,

你能想到的任何生活史事件,

if you plot it this way, looks like this.

如果以這個方式繪製它,會像這樣。

There is an extraordinary regularity.

有個驚奇的規律性。

So you tell me the size of a mammal,

這麼說吧!你告我哺乳動物的大小,

I can tell you at the 90 percent level everything about it

我能告訴你百分之九十與其相關的事,

in terms of its physiology, life history, etc.

它的生理機能、生活史等等。

And the reason for this is because of networks.

而之所以能如此,是因為「脈絡」

All of life is controlled by networks --

所有的生命受制於脈絡──

from the intracellular through the multicellular

從細胞內到多細胞

through the ecosystem level.

到生態系統層面。

And you're very familiar with these networks.

而且你們對這些脈絡非常熟悉。

That's a little thing that lives inside an elephant.

那是存在大象內的一個小東西。

And here's the summary of what I'm saying.

接著,這是我所談之事的摘要,

If you take those networks,

若你利用這些脈絡,

this idea of networks,

脈絡這個點子

and you apply universal principles,

並運用普遍原則

mathematizable, universal principles,

──數學的普遍原則:

all of these scalings

所有這些呈線性變換縮放

and all of these constraints follow,

及所有這些約束跟著仿效

including the description of the forest,

包括森林的描繪、

the description of your circulatory system,

你們循環系統的描繪、

the description within cells.

細胞內的描繪。

One of the things I did not stress in that introduction

有件事我沒有在開頭介紹時強調的是

was that, systematically, the pace of life

生命的節奏有系統地減緩,

decreases as you get bigger.

當你變得越大。

Heart rates are slower; you live longer;

心跳率越慢,你活得越久；

diffusion of oxygen and resources

氧氣和資源

across membranes is slower, etc.

在整個黏膜擴散得越慢等等。

The question is: Is any of this true

問題是:對都市和企業而言

for cities and companies?

這是真的嗎?

So is London a scaled up Birmingham,

那麼倫敦是一個放大的伯明罕

which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.?

伯明罕是一個放大的布萊頓......等等?

Is New York a scaled up San Francisco,

紐約是一個放大的舊金山?

which is a scaled up Santa Fe?

舊金山是放大的聖塔菲(Santa Fe)嗎?

Don't know. We will discuss that.

不曉得,我們會討論到那點。

But they are networks,

但它們是脈絡。

and the most important network of cities

而最重要的都市脈絡

is you.

是你。

Cities are just a physical manifestation

都市只是個物理的明顯跡象──

of your interactions,

你們的交流、

our interactions,

我們的交流、

and the clustering and grouping of individuals.

及許多個體結群和聚集的產物。

Here's just a symbolic picture of that.

這只是一幅象徵脈絡的圖。

And here's scaling of cities.

而這是都市的縮放

This shows that in this very simple example,

這張圖以非常簡單的例子來說明脈絡

which happens to be a mundane example

而且恰好是個平凡的例子

of number of petrol stations

──加油站的數字

as a function of size --

為隨規模大小變化的因素

plotted in the same way as the biology --

──如標繪生態學一般繪製──

you see exactly the same kind of thing.

你看到的確實是同類東西

There is a scaling.

這是縮放圖

That is that the number of petrol stations in the city

這是都市裡加油站的數量

is now given to you

現在提供給你,

when you tell me its size.

若你告訴我都市的大小。

The slope of that is less than linear.