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  • 00:00:03,675 --> 00:00:06,939 The really important issue is how much of our economy

  • is destroyed in the process of managing the disease

  • and how easily we can get back to normal.

  • The optimistic view would be that we

  • will bring the explosion that we have recently seen in cases

  • and death under control.

  • We will then have testing regimes available

  • that allow us to keep it under control,

  • so that within a relatively short time

  • the major economies can follow China and begin to get back

  • to work by the summer.

  • But at an extreme opposite it may be the case we simply

  • cannot contain the disease.

  • It might last till the end of 2021.

  • If that were to happen, we'd obviously

  • have colossal increases in public debt, maybe 20 or 30

  • percentage points of GDP.

  • We would have many companies that have disappeared.

  • We would have had many people who have been unemployed

  • for a year and a half or more.

  • We would have profound social unrest.

  • I think the trading system would probably have collapsed.

  • It could certainly be immediately,

  • I think, in the short run, a bigger decline in output

  • than in the early 1930s.

  • The impact on output gross domestic product

  • in the developed countries will vary between minus 15 per cent

  • and minus 30 per cent.

  • So every month, as it were, our GDP

  • will be smaller by that amount, below what

  • it would have been if the crisis had never happened.

  • And so over a year, that will be the shrinkage of GDP?

  • And that's why you mustn't have it every year.

  • What the IMF is telling us is that we're

  • going over an economic cliff right now.

  • They're expecting that in advanced countries

  • GDP will decline roughly by 12 per cent

  • between the end of last year and the second quarter

  • of this year.

  • Thereafter, they hope, there will be a recovery.

  • It will be a long time to get back to the starting point,

  • but there will be a steady recovery.

  • Unfortunately, even that could prove to be too optimistic.

  • If we look at what sectors are being hit, well,

  • obviously it's travel, it's leisure, it's tourism,

  • it's restaurants, it's retail.

  • In the emerging developing countries

  • there are no cushions of the type

  • we have in the developed world, so their fate

  • will be really much more like what happened in the '30s.

  • This will be a truly profound transformation.

  • Governments would be colossally indebted.

  • They would have printed an enormous amount of money.

  • I would expect serious inflation to emerge, one way or another.

  • 00:03:06,530 --> 00:03:10,850 If we were to do the very best one could imagine,

  • the recession globally would still

  • be worse than the Great Recession, not necessarily

  • worse in the developed countries which were most directly hit

  • by the 2007 or 2008 crisis.

  • But it's very important to remember the 2007

  • and 2008 crisis wasn't really a global crisis.

  • While the developed countries were badly hit

  • and that affected the whole world,

  • China did incredibly well, came out very, very quickly

  • with an incredibly strong growth in 2009.

  • That supported commodities, and that

  • meant a lot of emerging and developing countries

  • did pretty well.

  • Today, this is a global crisis.

  • It's affecting every economy in the world,

  • including China, of course, and all the emerging and developing

  • countries, as well as the developed countries.

  • If you think we are now in 1930, as it were,

  • we're going over a cliff faster than in 1930.

  • It's more global than in 1930.

  • And if it goes like this for two or three years,

  • then I think political consequences which, ultimately,

  • will feed back into the economy are just wildly unpredictable

  • and could be devastating.

  • Without the Great Depression, Adolf Hitler

  • would never have been elected to power in Germany.

  • 00:04:28,740 --> 00:04:32,620 It is possible, if we get the disease under control,

  • that the recovery will be quicker.

  • We're going to have to have higher taxation

  • to strengthen our health systems,

  • and I think we'll have to strengthen our social safety

  • nets.

  • And those costs will have to be borne by the relatively

  • well-off.

  • We will have to consider whether we can continue with gig

  • working, precarious working.

  • We will have to rethink how we relate

  • the winners to the losers in our economic system.

  • Otherwise, I don't believe our democratic systems

  • will survive.

00:00:03,675 --> 00:00:06,939 The really important issue is how much of our economy

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