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  • Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

    譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Edrian Liu

  • I'm here to talk about climate change,

    我來這裡是要談氣候變遷,

  • but I'm not really an environmentalist.

    但我其實不是環境學家。

  • In fact, I've never really thought of myself as a nature person.

    事實上,我從來沒有想過 我會是個關心大自然的人。

  • I have never gone camping, never gone hiking,

    我從來沒有去露營或健行過,

  • never even owned a pet.

    從來沒有養過寵物。

  • I've lived my whole life in cities,

    我一生都住在城市中,

  • actually just one city.

    且都是同一個城市。

  • And while I like to take trips to visit nature,

    雖然我喜歡外出旅行去看大自然,

  • I always thought it was something that was happening elsewhere,

    但我總認為氣候變遷 發生在其他地方,

  • far away,

    很遠的地方,

  • with all of modern life a fortress against its forces.

    而現代生活是座保壘,

  • In other words,

    可以對抗它的力量。

  • like just about everybody I knew,

    換言之,

  • I lived my life complacent

    就和我認識的所有人一樣,

  • and deluded

    我過著自我滿足的生活,

  • about the threat from global warming.

    搞不清楚

  • Which I took to be happening slowly,

    全球暖化的威脅。

  • happening at a distance

    我以為全球暖化發生的速度很慢,

  • and representing only a modest threat to the way that I lived.

    發生在很遠的地方,

  • In each of these ways,

    且對我所過的生活 不會有太大的威脅。

  • I was very, very wrong.

    上述的每個想法,

  • Now most people, if they were telling you about climate change,

    都大錯特錯。

  • will tell you a story about the future.

    通常別人跟你談氣候變遷時, 都會說未來的故事。

  • If I was doing that, I would say,

    如果是我,我會說:

  • "According to the UN, if we don't change course,

    「聯合國說,這世紀末前 我們再不做出改變,

  • by the end of the century,

    我們就會有攝氏四度的暖化。」

  • we're likely to get about four degrees Celsius of warming."

    有些科學家相信,四度的暖化就表示

  • That would mean, some scientists believe,

    戰爭會加倍、

  • twice as much war,

    食物會減半、

  • half as much food,

    全球 GDP 可能會比沒有 氣候變遷的狀況低 20%。

  • a global GDP possibly 20 percent smaller than it would be without climate change.

    這個衝擊比經濟大蕭條更深,

  • That's an impact that's deeper than the Great Depression,

    且會是永久性的。

  • and it would be permanent.

    但,影響其實發生得很快, 遠早於 2100 年。

  • But the impacts are actually happening a lot faster than 2100.

    估計到了 2050 年,

  • By just 2050, it's estimated,

    南亞和中東的許多大城市

  • many of the biggest cities in South Asia and the Middle East

    在夏天會熱到幾乎無法居住。

  • will be almost literally unlivably hot in summer.

    現今有一千萬、一千兩百萬、

  • These are cities that today are home to 10, 12, 15 million people.

    一千五百萬人住在這些城市。

  • And in just three decades,

    只要再三十年,

  • you wouldn't be able to walk around outside in them

    你只要在這些城市的室外走動

  • without risking heatstroke or possibly death.

    就有中暑的風險,甚至可能會死亡。

  • The planet is now 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer

    地球現在的溫度已經比工業化之前

  • than it was before industrialization.

    高出攝氏 1.1 度了。

  • That may not sound like a lot,

    聽起來可能不太多,

  • but it actually puts us entirely outside the window of temperatures

    但那就已經讓我們的溫度落在

  • that enclose all of human history.

    整個人類歷史的溫度範圍之外了。

  • That means that everything we have ever known as a species,

    那就表示,我們人類所知道的一切,

  • the evolution of the human animal,

    人類動物的演化,

  • the development of agriculture,

    農業的發展,

  • the development of rudimentary civilization

    初期文明、現代文明、

  • and modern civilization and industrial civilization,

    工業文明的發展,

  • everything we know about ourselves as biological creatures,

    我們對於我們這種生物動物、

  • as social creatures, as political creatures,

    社交動物、政治動物所知的一切,

  • all of it is the result of climate conditions

    所有這些,通通都是

  • we have already left behind.

    我們過去氣候條件的結果。

  • It's like we've landed on an entirely different planet,

    現在彷彿我們降落在 一個不同的星球上,

  • with an entirely different climate.

    這裡有著不同的氣候。

  • And we now have to figure out

    現在我們得弄清楚

  • what of the civilization that we've brought with us

    我們帶來的文明中,有哪些

  • can endure these new conditions

    可以承受這些新條件,

  • and what can't.

    哪些不能。

  • And things will get worse from here.

    且,從此之後,只會每況愈下。

  • Now for a very long time,

    有很長一段時間,

  • we were told that climate change was a slow saga.

    我們都聽說氣候變化 是個很緩慢的傳說。

  • It started with the industrial revolution,

    它從工業革命開始,

  • and it had fallen to us

    替我們的上上代收拾善後 變成是我們的責任,

  • to clean up the mess left by our grandparents

    這樣我們的孩子才不用 去面對那些後果。

  • so our grandchildren wouldn't be dealing with the results.

    這是個橫跨數世紀的故事。

  • It was a story of centuries.

    事實上,在整個人類歷史中,

  • In fact, half of all of the emissions

    因為燃燒化石燃料所產生的排放量,

  • that have ever been produced from the burning of fossil fuels

    有一半都是在過去三十年間產生的。

  • in the entire history of humanity

    也就是在高爾出版了他的 第一本關於暖化的書之後。

  • have been produced in just the last 30 years.

    也就是聯合國建立了政府間 氣候變化專門委員會之後。

  • That's since Al Gore published his first book on warming.

    我們在那之後所造成的傷害

  • It's since the UN established its IPCC climate change body.

    就已經超過了在那之前 數百年、數千年的傷害。

  • We've done more damage since then

    我現在三十七歲,

  • than in all the centuries, all the millennia before.

    那就表示我的人生會經歷這整個故事。

  • Now I'm 37 years old,

    我出生時,地球的氣候似乎還穩定。

  • which means my life contains this entire story.

    現今,

  • When I was born, the planet's climate seemed stable.

    我們已經在大災難的邊緣。

  • Today,

    氣候危機不是我們祖先的遺產。

  • we are on the brink of catastrophe.

    它是一個世代的傑作。

  • The climate crisis is not the legacy of our ancestors.

    我們這個世代。

  • It is the work of a single generation.

    可能聽起來通通都是壞消息。

  • Ours.

    的確,都是壞消息。

  • This may all sound like bad news.

    但,我認為,當中也有

  • Which it is, really bad news.

    一些好消息,至少相對算好。

  • But it also contains, I think,

    這些影響大得驚人。

  • some good news, at least relatively speaking.

    但,我想,它們也令人振奮。

  • These impacts are terrifyingly large.

    因為最終它們是一種反映,

  • But they are also, I think, exhilarating.

    反映出我們對氣候有多少控制權。

  • Because they are ultimately a reflection

    如果我們之後發生了 那些可怖的情況,

  • of how much power we have over the climate.

    那是因為我們造成的,

  • If we get to those hellish scenarios,

    是我們選擇讓那些情況發生的。

  • it will be because we have made them happen,

    那就表示,我們也可以 選擇讓其他情況發生。

  • because we have chosen to make them happen.

    那聽起來可能太美好,很難置信,

  • Which means we can choose to make other scenarios happen, too.

    且實際上的政治阻礙很巨大。

  • Now that may seem too rosy to believe

    但事實很簡單——

  • and the political obstacles are in fact enormous.

    全球暖化的主要推手 就是人類行為:

  • But it is a simple fact --

    我們把多少碳送到大氣中。

  • the main driver of global warming is human action:

    我們的手就在那些控制桿上。

  • How much carbon we put into the atmosphere.

    我們自己能撰寫關於 地球氣候未來的故事。

  • Our hands are on those levers.

    不是「能」——是「正在」。

  • And we can write the story of the planet's climate future ourselves.

    因為不行動也是一種行動,

  • Not just can -- but are.

    不論我們喜歡與否, 我們都會寫下那個故事。

  • Since inaction is a kind of action,

    這不只是一個故事而已,

  • we'll be writing that story ourselves whether we like it or not.

    地球的未來就掌控在 我們所有人的手中。

  • This is not just any story,

    這是以前我們只會在神話

  • all of us holding the future of the planet in our hands.

    和神學當中才會看到的故事。

  • It's the kind of story we used to recognize only in mythology

    單單一個世代

  • and theology.

    就讓人類的未來存疑,

  • A single generation

    現在這個世代的任務 是要確保有嶄新的未來。

  • that has brought the future of humanity into doubt

    那會是什麼樣子的?

  • now tasked with securing a new future.

    可能會是太陽能板遍佈地球,

  • So what would that look like?

    真的到處都可見到。

  • It could mean solar arrays barnacling the planet,

    這可能表示我們開發出更好的技術,

  • really everywhere you looked.

    我們甚至不用廣泛施行這項技術,

  • It could mean if we developed better technology,

    因為,據估計, 光是撒哈拉沙漠的一小塊

  • we wouldn't even need to deploy them that broadly,

    就足以吸收足夠的太陽能, 供應全世界需要的能量。

  • because it's been estimated that just a sliver of the Sahara desert

    但我們可能會需要新的電力網,

  • absorbs enough solar power to provide all the world's energy needs.

    且不能像現今美國的電力網,

  • But we'd probably need a new electric grid,

    把三分之二的電力浪費在廢熱上。

  • one that doesn't lose two-thirds of its power to waste heat,

    我們可能會需要更多一些核能,

  • as is today the case in the US.

    不過,會是完全不同類的核能,

  • We could use some more nuclear power, perhaps,

    因為現今的技術 在成本上沒有競爭力,

  • although it would have to be an entirely different kind of nuclear power,

    無法和成本快速下降的 再生能源競爭。

  • because today's technology simply isn't cost-competitive

    我們會需要一種新飛機,

  • with renewable energy whose costs are falling so rapidly.

    因為我認為,要求全世界都放棄

  • We'd need a new kind of plane,

    航空旅行是不太實際的做法,

  • because I don't think it's particularly practical

    特別是因為這是 大部分南半球有史以來

  • to ask the entire world to give up on air travel,

    第一次能負擔得起航空旅行。

  • especially as so much of the global South

    我們需要不會產生碳的飛機。

  • is, for the very first time, able to afford it.

    我們需要一種新的農業。

  • We need planes that won't produce carbon.

    因為我們可能無法要求大家 完全放棄吃肉,改吃素,

  • We need a new kind of agriculture.

    那就表示要用新方法來飼養食用牛。

  • Because we probably can't ask people to entirely give up on meat and go vegan,

    或者也許可以延用古早的方法,

  • it would mean a new way of raising beef.

    因為我們已經知道傳統放牧法

  • Or perhaps an old way,

    會讓養牛場

  • since we already know that traditional pasturing practices

    從產生二氧化碳的碳來源

  • can turn cattle farms

    轉變成能吸收碳的碳匯。

  • from what are called carbon sources, which produce CO2,

    若你偏好技術性解決方案,

  • into carbon sinks, which absorb them.

    也許我們可以在實驗室中 培養出一些肉類。

  • If you prefer a techno solution,

    也許我們可以用海草來餵牛,

  • maybe we can grow some of that mean in the lab.

    因為那會將牠們的甲烷排放 減低 95% 或 99%。

  • Probably, we could also feed some real cattle seaweed,

    可能上述的通通都要做到,

  • because that cuts their methane emissions by as much as 95 or 99 percent.

    因為,不論是這個難題的哪個面向,

  • Probably, we'd have to do all of these things,

    問題都太大、太複雜,

  • because as with every aspect of this puzzle,

    無法用萬能的單一招式來解決。

  • the problem is simply too vast and complicated

    不論我們施行多少種解決方案,

  • to solve in any single silver-bullet way.

    我們可能都無法即時將碳除去。

  • And no matter how many solutions we deploy,

    我們面對的是很駭人的數學。

  • we probably won't be able to decarbonize in time.

    我們將無法打敗氣候變遷,

  • That's the terrifying math that we face.

    只能和它共存並限制它。

  • We won't be able to beat climate change,

    那就表示我們可能會需要 一些所謂的負排放,

  • only live with it and limit it.

    也就是將碳從大氣中去除。

  • And that means we'd probably need

    數十億,可能數兆棵新樹木。

  • some amount of what are called negative emissions,

    還有一大片的捕碳機器。

  • which take carbon out of the atmosphere as well.

    可能還要有一個產業,規模是

  • Billions of new trees, maybe trillions of new trees.

    現今石油天然氣事業的二或四倍,

  • And whole plantations of carbon-capture machines.

    來將那些事業在過去數十年 所造成的傷害給還原。

  • Perhaps an industry twice or four times the size

    我們會需要一種新的基礎建設,

  • of today's oil and gas business

    注入不同類的水泥,

  • to undo the damage that was done by those businesses in past decades.

    因為,現今,如果水泥是個國家,

  • We would need a new kind of infrastructure,

    它會是全世界第三大的排放國。

  • poured by a different kind of cement,

    中國每三年所使用的水泥量

  • because today, if cement were a country,

    相當於美國在整個 二十世紀所使用的量。

  • it would be the world's third biggest emitter.

    我們也需要建立防波堤和堤壩

  • And China is pouring as much cement every three years

    來保護住在海岸邊的人,

  • as the US poured in the entire 20th century.

    這些人當中有許多都 太貧窮,無法築堤,

  • We would need to build seawalls and levees

    這就是為什麼,

  • to protect those people living on the coast,

    必須要終結狹隘的 國家主義地緣政治,

  • many of whom are too poor to build them today,

    不要再把世界上其他地方的人

  • which is why it must mean an end to a narrowly nationalistic geopolitics

    所受到的苦難定義為不重要的,

  • that allows us to define the suffering of those living elsewhere in the world

    且我們還承認那些苦難。

  • as insignificant,

    這個更好的未來並不容易達成。

  • when we even acknowledge it.

    但唯一的障礙就是人為障礙。

  • This better future won't be easy.

    如果你知道我所知道的 人類殘酷和冷漠,

  • But the only obstacles are human ones.

    可能會覺得這一點也不讓人欣慰,

  • That may not be much of a comfort,

    但我向各位保證, 這還是比其他選擇更好。

  • if you know what I know about human brutality and indifference,

    科學並沒有阻止我們採取行動,

  • but I promise you, it is better than the alternative.

    技術也沒有。

  • Science isn't stopping us from taking action,

    我們現今已經有起步 所需要的工具了。

  • and neither is technology.

    當然,我們也有必要的工具

  • We have the tools we need today to begin.

    可以終結全球貧困、大流行的疾病,

  • Of course, we also have the tools we need to end global poverty,

    還有對女性的虐待。

  • epidemic disease

    這就是為什麼我們需要 新政治多於新工具,

  • and the abuse of women as well.

    我們需要一種方式來克服 所有這些人為障礙——

  • Which is why more than new tools, we need a new politics,

    我們的文化、我們的經濟、

  • a way of overcoming all those human obstacles --

    我們的現況偏見、

  • our culture, our economics,

    我們沒有意願想要認真看待 會讓我們害怕的事物。

  • our status quo bias,

    我們的短淺目光。

  • our disinterest in taking seriously anything that really scares us.

    我們的自利。

  • Our shortsightedness.

    以及世界上有錢有權

  • Our sense of self-interest.

    且最沒有動機去改變的人的自私。

  • And the selfishness of the world's rich and powerful

    他們將來也會受苦,

  • who have the least incentive to change anything.

    但不會像弱勢的人那麼苦,

  • Now, they will suffer too,

    弱勢的人對暖化的貢獻最少,

  • but not as much as those with the least,

    在把我們帶到現今 這個危機點的過程中,

  • who have done the least to produce warming

    他們卻也受益最少,

  • and have benefited the least

    但在將來的數十年, 他們的擔子會最重。

  • from the processes that have brought us to this crisis point

    新政治

  • but will be burdened most in the decades ahead.

    會讓管理那些重擔的問題,

  • A new politics

    比如重擔落在哪裡、有多重,

  • would make the matter of managing that burden,

    成為我們這個時代的 最優先處理議題。

  • where it falls and how heavily,

    不論我們怎麼做,

  • the top priority of our time.

    氣候變遷都會改變現代生活。

  • No matter what we do, climate change will transform modern life.

    有些暖化已經發生,無可避免,

  • Some amount of warming is already baked in and is inevitable,

    那就表示,可能也會 有一些額外的苦難。

  • which means probably some amount of additional suffering is, too.

    即使我們採取大動作,

  • And even if we take dramatic action

    並避免一些很駭人的最糟情況,

  • and avoid some of these truly terrifying worst-case scenarios,

    那就表示居住在一個 完全不同的星球上。

  • it would mean living on an entirely different planet.

    有著新政治、新經濟、

  • With a new politics, a new economics,

    和科技的新關係,

  • a new relationship to technology

    以及和大自然的新關係——

  • and a new relationship to nature --

    全新的世界。

  • a whole new world.

    但,相對是比較宜居的世界。

  • But a relatively livable one.

    相對比較繁榮。

  • Relatively prosperous.

    且比較綠。

  • And green.

    為什麼不選那個世界?

  • Why not choose that one?

    謝謝。

  • Thank you.

    (掌聲)

  • (Applause)

Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Edrian Liu

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B1 中級 中文 TED 氣候 暖化 變遷 人類 政治

我們如何改變地球的氣候未來|大衛-華萊士-韋爾斯 (How we could change the planet's climate future | David Wallace-Wells)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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