Global climate change and rising sea levels in south Florida.

Florida's coastline beckons people from all

over the country, and the world.

A beachfront home in Florida; a vacation spot on a Key West

canal; a Miami waterfront condominium;

Being close to the water is very desirable for many people.

The closer to the water, the more valuable the property.

But Florida is disappearing.

Sea level rise is submerging the coastal communities of Florida,

and jeopardizing investments and the state economy.

Along with the personal and financial loss of property,

comes a loss of habitat and wildlife.

Climate change is real and is impacting the people and the

landscape of south Florida.

In the past there were some fairly dramatic

periods of sea level rise that caused the native

Americans and other indigenous people around

the world to rapidly and dramatically change where they

lived and move inland and upslope.

But again, for the last 3 thousand years or so,

the sea level has been quite stable and we have moved into

the shore and invested and built our homes started our businesses

and built all this infrastructure,

everything from roads to bridges and power lines and everything

else which makes our modern society possible.

But relatively recently, the trend in sea level rise has

been a rapid acceleration.

Between 1000 BC and the year 1900 sea level rose

about one-and-a-half inches every 100 years.

In Florida, in the past 100 years alone,

sea level has risen more than 8 inches.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,

or "NOAA" the leading U.S.

agency studying climate change and sea level rise estimates

global sea level will rise between 8 to 80 inches by 2100.

The exact amount will be determined by the amount of ice

sheet losses and increases in ocean warming.

Under the worst case scenario, by the year 2100,

56% of developed area in south Florida could be

under water at high tide.

Early in the morning of Monday, October 24th,

2005, the people of south Florida huddled inside homes and

hurricane shelters, bracing themselves for the thirteenth

hurricane in a record-breaking storm season.

Hurricane Wilma had reached Category 5 strength winds,

but by the time it passed the Florida Keys,

the storm was downgraded to a category 3.

Wind gusts up to 120 mph wreaked havoc in the Keys,

but it was the flooding after the storm

that caused the most damage.

Not since Hurricane Betsy in 1965 had the Keys faced such

drastic flooding.

We got interested in sea level rise,

when hurricane Wilma in 2005 flooded almost the entire

Florida Keys with seawater.

And Big Pine Key, where we're now sitting was no exception.

In fact, my yard was under water by about 2 feet,

and we were able to see what and visualize what sea level rise

would look like, for the first time.

Though the eye of Hurricane Wilma passed

just north of the Keys,

sparing the island chain from the highest winds and heaviest

rains, the ocean surrounding the islands rose quickly,

inundating many island communities in two to three feet

of water in less than 15 minutes.

Coastal flooding in Key West typically occurs when water

levels reach 3 ft above mean sea level.

When storm tides for Wilma reached up to 6.5 ft above

sea level, almost the entire eastern

half of Key West was under water.

In 2007, Chris Bergh of The Nature Conservancy initiated a

research project to identify impacts of sea level

rise in the Florida Keys.

They created digital models illustrating sea level rise

scenarios from 7 inches to 4.6 feet to reflect the best

available range of sea level rise for the year 2100.

We got very concerned about it and we decided we should take a

look at the elevation of the islands in the Florida Keys and

then use what is called "Bathtub Modeling" to digitally using

computer simulations, artificially raise the elevation

of the ocean by different increments.

Since more than ninety percent of the Keys' land area is

less than five feet above sea level, scenario mapping

tools helps illustrate the potential dangers facing

our communities from rising sea levels.

The Conservancy's online mapping tool available at

coastalresilience.org enables web users to simulate what Big

Pine Key, in the middle Florida Keys,

would look like with a sea level rise of one to four feet,

or simulate a storm surge such as the one from Hurricane Wilma,

or a combination of both rise and surge.

The mapping tool uses real world elevation data,

along with infrastructure locations, facilities

like hospitals and the habitat ranges of protected species.

You look at South Florida or anywhere else,

you say, "Oh, we'll move inland."

Well, maybe some places you can move inland,

South Florida, we have the Everglades.

The farther inland we get, the lower it gets, so

we're going to lose, we're going to lose it all this century.

Sea level is rising because the atmosphere and the

ocean are warming.

The Earth is warming because of greenhouse gases.

In 1824, French mathematician and physicist,

Joseph Fourier, discovered that some gases trap heat within the

earth's atmosphere.

These gases, like methane and carbon dioxide,

are called "green-house" gases.

Without greenhouse gases, life on Earth would be far too cold.

Greenhouse gases keep the sun's

heat from bouncing back into space.

But through human activity, the amount of greenhouse gases in

our atmosphere has soared.

Through the burning of fossil fuels- such as coal,

oil and natural gas- approximately ten billion tons

of CO2 are added to the atmosphere every year.

However, only six to seven billion tons of CO2 are removed

from the atmosphere by plants and oceans.

More CO2 is entering the atmosphere

than is being removed.

This imbalance is the fundamental cause of our

accelerated climate change.

For more than 100 years, NOAA has been monitoring rising sea

levels with tidal gauges that pepper America's coastline.

NOAA also operates environmental satellites that perpetually

monitor the planet.

Data from these satellites is used to measure numerous

environmental factors including the sea surface temperature of

the ocean, an indicator of climate change.

According to NOAA data, 2012 was the warmest year ever recorded

in the US since record keeping began in 1895.

The latest climate projections call for the globe to warm

between 3.2°F and 7.2°F by 2100, depending on the amount of

future greenhouse gas emissions.

As the atmosphere gets hotter, ocean temperatures also

increase, and warmer water has a

greater volume than cooler water.

So as the ocean heats up, it gets larger,

and sea level rises.

The warming of the ocean will maybe

add nearly another foot this century.

The melting of the Alpine Glaciers,

which is dramatic, that may add another 8

or 9 inches this century.

But the huge potential for the sea level rise is

the melting of the ice sheet.

Greenland has enough ice, that if it all melted,

it could raise sea level by 23-24 feet.

The West Antarctic ice sheet alone has enough ice to raise

sea level by 25 feet.

While the world's ice sheets won't totally disappear

by the end of the century, they are

melting at an alarming pace.

Single weather events can't be directly linked

to climate change.

A study published by the Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences, estimates that for every 1.8°F increase in

global temperatures, there could be up to a seven-fold increase

in the risk of extreme storm surge events.

There's a common misperception about

differences between "climate" and "weather",

so weather is what's happening now.

Right now, it's a little bit windy and it's a little bit cool

and not a cloud in the sky that's the conditions

at the moment.

And "climate" is the trend over decades or centuries.

So, in order for me to say that the climate has changed here,

I would have to have these relatively windy,

relatively cool, relatively dry conditions for many,

many, many days, weeks, months, and years on end before I could

say that the climate is trending towards cool and dry and windy.

You know, one snowstorm or one hurricane or one windy day does

not make climate change. But when those things multiply

themselves and the trends change, that's climate.

The crisis we face was once called Global Warming".

And while the atmosphere and oceans are warming,

it's more accurate to call the phenomenon

"Global Climate Change".

Some places may get more rain and floods.

While other places may see more heat waves and droughts.

But everywhere, the waters will be rising.

Cape Sable is the southernmost point in the

United States mainland and covers the western portion

of Everglades National Park.

Scientists have been studying Cape Sable for years and

tracking the changes caused by climate change.

Since the 1930's, we have been measuring and

studying what's happening at Cape Sable.

And it is a really awesome place,

not only for science but to visit.

The scientists love Cape Sable because it is an undeveloped

part of Florida, which you can compare directly

to developed parts of Miami.

What we have seen happening at Cape Sable since the 1930's,

is sea level is rising and up to 80 times a year now,

high tides are pushing over the marl ridge line and salt water

is now pushing into what used to be a fresh water lagoon.

Fifty to sixty percent of land-based Everglades

National Park is below 3 feet in elevation.

This wild place where plants and animals rely on healthy

freshwater flow for survival is facing an inundation

of salt water.

When we think about the animals and the plants that

will be affected by the sea level rise along Cape Sable,

we're going to be thinking a lot about some of the plants that

are unable to migrate or move.

Birds, perhaps, can move somewhere else,

as long as they can still find habitat and food,

and perhaps that's saving grace for the endangered

Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow.

But there're gonna be plants that are unable to migrate

quicker than the sea level is rising.

We already see the mangroves are marching inland;

and that's because the sea level is rising,

the salt water is overtopping some of the natural barriers.

The mangroves are moving inland as the sea level rises.

If mangroves are moving in, they're obviously displacing

some habitat.

So the salt water tolerant mangroves,

they're displacing the fresh water habitats,

like the pinelands, the Cypress areas,

and the fresh water sawgrass prairie.

One thing that might slow this salt water

intrusion into the freshwater Everglades

is the implementation of Comprehensive Everglades

Restoration Plan, or CERP, which is a 30-year project to restore

a more natural water flow across central and south Florida

and throughout the Everglades.

So, there's a lot less fresh water pushing south and if we

can restore the flow of clean, fresh water from the north part

of the Everglades through Lake Okeechobee,

down the Florida Bay and the other southern estuaries,

that fresh water will actually help push back the encroachment

of salt water into the southern Everglades,

into the saw grass marshes and low-lying areas

of the southern Everglades.

So the more fresh water there is flowing south,

the longer the Everglades will persist as we know it.

Achieving the right timing,

quantity, quality and distribution of freshwater