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  • Boris Johnson's new government is going hell

  • for leather for a no-deal Brexit.

  • The new British prime minister has entered office

  • saying he will only talk about a new Brexit deal with the EU

  • if it doesn't include that troublesome Irish border

  • backstop.

  • The EU says they're not interested.

  • So Mr Johnson, instead, is ramping up preparations

  • to leave on October the 31 without a deal.

  • But many MPs in parliament aren't happy with this

  • and are trying to challenge Mr Johnson's new policy.

  • But there are so many questions about

  • whether they have to bring down his government,

  • whether they can force his hand and, most importantly,

  • whether they have the power to stop a no-deal Brexit.

  • The main supporting MPs in parliament

  • are becoming increasingly convinced the only way

  • to stop a no-deal Brexit is to bring down

  • Mr Johnson's government.

  • Mr Johnson only has a working majority in parliament of one.

  • And the numbers for winning a confidence

  • vote when parliament returns in September

  • are very tight indeed.

  • So whether he can win that vote or not

  • is going to be very uncertain.

  • And if he loses that vote, then there's

  • not much time left before Britain will

  • head to a general election.

  • Britain has an unwritten constitution.

  • And there's lots of conventions that

  • say what the prime minister should do, not what he must do.

  • Normally, if Mr Johnson lost a confidence vote then

  • he would quit and make way for someone else.

  • But people close to the prime minister

  • say he won't do that at all.

  • He's not interested in what parliament or MPs think.

  • Instead, he's only focused on delivering Brexit

  • by October the 31st.

  • In his own words - come what may, do or die.

  • So if he does lose that confidence vote,

  • he won't be going anywhere.

  • If Mr Johnson loses that confidence vote in September,

  • there's a 14-day period which would allow another government

  • to step in its place.

  • If nothing happens in that time, then it's

  • back over to the prime minister to decide

  • when an election is held.

  • It must be called within 25 days.

  • But Boris Johnson doesn't want an election

  • to happen until the UK has left the EU,

  • knowing that his Conservative party would

  • be under threat from Nigel Farage's Brexit party.

  • So you could imagine Mr Johnson pushing the date back as far as

  • possible until after October the 31st, when the UK automatically

  • has left the EU.

  • If the general election is held after the UK has

  • left the EU without a deal, then it all

  • comes down to how disruptive a no-deal Brexit is.

  • Mr Johnson would be betting that the disruption could

  • be contained, and he would pitch an election as parliament

  • versus the people.

  • The people who voted Leave in the 2016 referendum,

  • and parliament, the MPs who are trying to stop him

  • from fulfilling that.

  • The Liberal Democrats, on the other hand,

  • would run on a strongly pro-Remain platform, even

  • offer to rejoin the EU to avoid the impact of a no-deal Brexit.

  • And the Labour party?

  • Well, they would try to fight on domestic issues

  • because Brexit is a very complicated matter for them

  • because they don't want to lose the portion

  • of their Leave voters in the north and their Remain voters

  • in the cities.

  • So if we have that election the pollsters

  • say it would be inconclusive.

  • Nobody really knows who will be able to form

  • a government after that poll.

  • When the UK triggered Article 50 back in March 2017

  • it started a countdown clock until the UK leaves the EU.

  • The only way to stop that clock is

  • to delay or revoke Article 50.

  • The former prime minister Theresa May

  • delayed Article 50 twice.

  • But Mr Johnson has no intention of doing that.

  • He also has no intention of invoking Article 50.

  • So in this instance, unless another prime minister

  • steps into his place, then the UK

  • will be leaving at the end of October, regardless of what

  • MPs want to do about that.

Boris Johnson's new government is going hell

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為什麼鮑里斯-約翰遜要面對五個關鍵的Brexit問題? (Why Boris Johnson faces five key Brexit questions | FT)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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