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  • today, we're going to talk a little bit more about the fraction ation of openness to experience.

  • And we've done a fair number of studies with the Big Five aspect scale, which we've talked about a lot, which enables the Big Five model to be differentiated down into two aspects per trait.

  • And those aspects have bean useful for a variety of reasons.

  • For example, when we're looking at political behavior, we've been able to determine that conservatives, who are generally regarded as higher in conscientiousness, are actually more specifically higher in orderliness.

  • It's not a lot of difference between liberals and conservatives with regards to industriousness, and we've also been able to determined, at least to some degree, that orderliness seems to be associated with disgust, sensitivity and discussed sensitivity is part of the behavioral immune system.

  • And so part of the reasons that conservatives are more inclined to want things like closed borders is because they're more concerned about maintaining the boundaries between things and the reasons without seems to be fundamentally associate ID with disgust.

  • And I'll talk to you a lot about that next week because once we sorted that out, it really, really illuminated my way of thinking about things that had happened, for example, in Nazi Germany, because people tend to, people tend to think about when people have bean studying conservatism from a scientific perspective, they've tended to assume that it's associated with fear of the groups.

  • A.

  • And the conservatives are more fearful the Liberals.

  • But that actually doesn't seem to be.

  • Conservatives are not hiring treat neuroticism, and that's a really tough one.

  • Because if you're going to make a case that a Group one group is more anxious, let's say or threat sensitive than another and you don't get differences in trade neuroticism, then you've really got a problem vs.

  • Well, yeah, but the theories, the theories seem to be more trade like rather than situation.

  • Yeah, so So.

  • But what we have found is that you know, for a long time people thought that all of the negative emotions loaded on neuroticism and it was like the global.

  • It was the global trade for negative emotion.

  • But discussed seems to be its own peculiar thing, and, uh, but I will talk to you more about that next week.

  • And but that's just an example of why differentiation at the aspect level seems useful.

  • You also pick up differences between men and women at the aspect level that aren't obvious at the trade level as well.

  • So you can think about the model says, You know you have a model that operates at different levels of resolution and low resolution representations are good for one set of operations and higher resolution representations air good for other purposes.

  • And the purpose, of course, is to predict least that's one of the primary scientific purposes.

  • And so you pick the level of analysis that gives you the most prediction and perhaps also the most utility in terms of formulating scientific theories.

  • So and so will concentrate a little bit more today on openness per se, so openness to experience fragments into intellect and openness proper.

  • And I think the right way to think about intellect is that it's the personality in Stan she ation of cute, roughly speaking.

  • And the reason I think that is because, well, first of all, working memory predicts intellect quite nicely, and working memory tests are very, very highly correlated with G and specifically G being the first factor that you pull out of any set of I Q tests right?

  • That that's the technical definition of G.

  • You set up cysts, a sets of questions, do a factor analysis and extract out the first factor, which is roughly equivalent by the way, to the total or to that, to the mean of the of the items.

  • If it's if there's a one factor solution, it's not much different than the average, so the average is actually a factor.

  • That's where the hypothesis is that every single item loads equally on that factor because you're adding them all up and then dividing them by the number.

  • So it's no different than a factor Now.

  • Sometimes you'll hear people like Stephen Jay Gould did this when he was complaining about Ike you back in the nineties, he said.

  • A factor and a factor.

  • Analysis like a factor is just a mathematical abstraction.

  • It's like, Well, yeah, so is the average you think is the average of a set of numbers riel and answer That question is depends on how you define real.

  • You can use it for certain functions, which is a pretty good definition of really as far as I'm concerned.

  • But when you ask questions like that you have to define both your terms and you do that somewhat arbitrarily.

  • Anyways.

  • People with high IQ's tend to think that they're smart, which is that's right.

  • And so then they tend to describe themselves as smart if you give them the opportunity to do that.

  • And then that shows up when you ask them questions about their problem solving ability, and that loads mostly on intellect.

  • And so it isn't even obvious that there's any real utility in assessing intellect from the self report perspective when you could replace that with an I Q test, because the I Q test is way more accurate, so but that gives you some sense.

  • You think about the whole five factor model.

  • You know where intelligence slots slots in underneath.

  • Open now the openness, proper part of openness to experience, which which I tend to think about as creativity.

  • You can use that at least as a shorthand to sort of aid your understanding and what it is.

  • Creativity seems related to like you in that more people with higher our cues are likely to be creative or if you take people who are noted for their creativity.

  • There's a high probability that they'll have a higher i Q.

  • But there's more to it than I Q Um, and and what?

  • What creativity seems to be associated with, then again depends on whether not on how you define creativity, because you could define it as the sum total of creative achievements that you've made in your life, which would be the actual production of, say, artifacts of one form or another, performances or inventions or artworks or or or what have you will go over the dimensions and middle in a minute.

  • Or you could also define it as the proclivity to engage in creative thought.

  • And I think we'll start with that first.

  • So what does it mean to think creatively?

  • It's It's sort of like it's something like this.

  • You imagine that I toss you out an idea, and there's some probability that when I tossed you that idea that that will trigger off other ideas in your imagination so you could think about it as a threshold issue.

  • If you're not very creative, I'll throw you an idea, and hardly any other ideals will be triggered, and the ones that will be triggered are going to be very closely associated with that initial idea.

  • So let's say I tossed each of you an idea and I asked you to think, Tell me the first thing that comes to mind.

  • OK, so what we would see first is that the first thing that comes to mind for you, the first thing that comes to mind in like in all likelihood, would be shared by many of you.

  • Okay, so then you could think about that as a common response, right?

  • And so that's a less creative response.

  • And then there'll be some things that come to mind for you that they're that they're so idiosyncratic that you're the only person that thinks it.

  • And no one can understand it well, that that's also not exactly creative, because the thing that you for something to be creative, it has to be novel and useful at the same time.

  • That's sort of rough definition, creative.

  • Something creative is novel and useful, and obviously you know there's a there's a certain amount of judgment that goes along with that clearly.

  • But if it's too novel, then no one else can understand it, and it's unlikely to be useful.

  • So there's there's A There's a range of convenience.

  • So anyways, if you want to decide if something's creative, like what we would do for I could say to you.

  • Okay.

  • In the next three minutes, I want you to write down all the uses you can think of for a brick.

  • So Okay, so someone tell me a use for a brick.

  • Breaking windows.

  • Yes.

  • Okay.

  • At what else can use a brick for build a wall?

  • It's very small wall.

  • A wall for ants.

  • And what else?

  • Paperweight.

  • Okay, okay, well, so you get the idea.

  • You're not feeling very mouthy today, obviously.

  • But so So you see that?

  • So if we gathered your responses, say, I said you have to think up 20 items that 20 things that you could do with a brick, then a bunch of the things that you thought would be the same and some people would come up with something different, like yours was reasonably different.

  • One about using it as a public stone for your feet that someone else might have come up with that.

  • But it's it's a good creative response because it's under unexpected and you could actually do it, you know, so anyway, so you'll get a graph of probability of response, right?

  • And the more probable, the less creative, Roughly speaking.

  • It's not the only criteria because you also have to look a utility.

  • So if I said OK, you've got three minutes to write down as many uses as you can think of for a brick, I would score that in a variety of ways.

  • The first thing I would do is just figure out how many uses you generated.

  • That's called fluency, and we could also do that.

  • I could just say, Write down as many words as you can begin with the letter s in three minutes or that.

  • Begin with the letter C or four letter words that begin with the letter D.

  • No, I can I can constrain it.

  • And if I counted how many words you generated if I had an I Q measure and I had a measure of how many words you generated, I Q plus the number of words that you generate.

  • It would be a better predictor of your creativity than just like you.

  • So there's this fluency element that's so that's something like the rate at which you can produce a verbal ideas.

  • And one of the things we do know about about the creativity dimension of of openness is that it is associated with fluency.

  • And it's also associated with originality and originality Would be how improbable your use was compared to the uses generated by other people.

  • So so you, anyway.

  • So you can think of you get thrown an idea, and there's some probability that that will co activate other ideas.

  • And if it co activates many other ideas, that's like fluency.

  • And if it co activates ideas that are quite distant from the original idea something like that and you could you could track distance by comparing it to two probability that other people have generated it.

  • Then that's also another indication of creativity.

  • So they have to be unlikely, many unlikely responses that are useful.

  • That's what creativity is, roughly speaking, and then you can fractionated into different dimensions, so that's creative thinking.

  • But then creative achievement would be the ability to take those original ideas and then actually to implement them in the world.

  • And that's obviously much more different than merely being creative.

  • And so and then what creativity is depends on which of those measurement routes that you take now?

  • I developed a questionnaire with one of my students, Shelley Carson boat.

  • Jeez, it's just about 30 years ago now, 20 years ago, I guess called the Creative Achievement Questionnaire.

  • And I'll show you that here, and I'll show you some of the things that are interesting about it.

  • You know, you hear very frequently people say things like everyone's creative.

  • It's like, That's wrong.

  • Okay, it's wrong.

  • It's just a CZ Wrong is saying that everyone's extroverted.

  • First of all, you have to be pretty damn smart to be creative, because otherwise you're just gonna get to where other people have already got.

  • And that's not created by definition.

  • So so being fast and being out there at the front of things really makes a difference.

  • And then you also have to have these divergent thinking capabilities, and that's part of your trade structure.

  • And creative people are really different than non creative people.

  • You know, partly because, for example, they're highly motivated to do creative things and to experience novelty into and to and to chase down aesthetic experiences into a 10 movies and to read fiction and to go to museums and to enjoy poetry and and and to enjoy music.

  • That's not conventional music.

  • For example.

  • These aren't trivial differences, and so and so it's a really it's a really miss statement to make the proposition that everyone's creative.

  • It's just simply not the case.

  • It's a matter of wishful thinking.

  • It's like saying that everyone's intelligent.

  • It's like, Well, if everyone's intelligent than then the term loses all of its meaning because any term that you can apply to every member of a category has absolutely no meaning.

  • No, that doesn't.

  • And, you know, the other thing you want to be thinking about here is that don't be thinking that creativity is such a good thing.

  • It's a high risk, high return strategy.

  • So if you're creative, you just try this.

  • There's creative people in this room, man.

  • You guys are gonna have a hell of a time monetizing your creativity.

  • It's virtually impossible.

  • It's really, really difficult because first of all, let's say you make an original product.

  • You think the world will beat a pathway to your door.

  • If you build a better mousetrap, it's like that's complete rubbish.

  • It isn't it.

  • It isn't true in the least.

  • If you make a good creative product, you've probably solved about 5% of your problem because then you have marketing, which is insanely difficult, and then you have sales and then you have customer support, and then you have to build an organization and you have to.

  • If it's really novel, you have to tell people what the hell the thing is.

  • You know, we built this future authoring program right, and it's available for people online.

  • How do you market that?

  • No one knows what that is, and that's a real problem.

  • If you write a book, well, then you have the problem that another 1,000,000 people have also written a book.

  • But if you produce something that's completely new and doesn't have a category, people can't search for it online.

  • How are they gonna find it?

  • So you just have and then you have pricing problems, and it's really unbelievably difficult to produce something creative and then monetize it.

  • And even worse, if you're the creative person, let's say you have a spectacular invention.

  • He's got no money, you've got no customers that those are big problems, and so maybe you go and you find a venture capitalist.

  • We start with family and friends because that's how it works.

  • You raise money for your product.

  • You raise money from your family and friends.

  • That's assuming you have family and friends that have some money and that they're going to give it to you.

  • And most people aren't in that situation.

  • So it's a terrible barrier right off the bat.

  • And then, of course, you're putting your family and friends.

  • It's substantial financial risk because the probability that your stupid idea is gonna make money is virtually zero, even if it's a really brilliant idea.

  • And so then let's say, Well, you get past family and friends and you get venture capital capitalists involved because that's often the next step or an angel investor.

  • That's there's their steps in building a business family and friends Angel investor that some rich guy that you happened to meet some manner is some way who's who's into this sort of thing, is is willing to provide you with some money to get your product off the ground.

  • Well, how much of your product is that person going to take?

  • Well, most of it, most of it and then if you get a venture and no wonder because you know you don't have any money, how are you going to bargain for control over your product?

  • He'll just say, Well, do you want the money or not?

  • And if your answer is no, then he'll go and do something else with his money.

  • It's not like there's no shortage of things that you can do with your money.

  • Does 1,000,000 things you can do with it?

  • You're not in a great bargaining position.

  • And then if you get venture capitalists involved, they'll take another big chunk.

  • And maybe if they're not very straight with you, they'll just throw you out.

  • Because maybe by that point in the company's development, you're nothing but a pain in the neck.

  • Because what do you know about marketing and sales and customer service and building an organization and running a business like you don't have a clue?

  • So why do they need you?

  • So even if you're successful at generating a new idea and you put it into a business, the probability that you as the originator of the of the idea are going to make some money from it is very very low.

  • So don't be thinking that creativity is such a such a something you would want to curse yourself with.

  • Now you know it's not all bad because it it opens up avenues of experience for creative people that aren't available to people who aren't creative.

  • But it definitely is a high risk, high return strategy, you know, So the overwhelming probability is that you will fail, But a small proportion of creative people succeed spectacularly, and so it's like a lottery.

  • In some sense, your fraud again lose.

  • But if you don't lose, you could win bay.

  • And that keeps a lot of creative people going.

  • But also they don't really have much choice in it.

  • Because if you're a creative person, you're like a fruit tree.

  • That's that's bearing fruit, so you don't really have You can suppress it, but it's very bad for, you know, the creative people I've worked with is if they're not creative, they're miserable, so they have to do it.

  • But and you know, there's real joy and pleasure in it and and and and and psychological utility.

  • But that doesn't necessarily mean that it's an intelligent.

  • It's certainly not a conservative strategy for moving forward through life.

  • So and, you know, whenever I talk to people who are creative, and you guys should listen to this because I know what I'm talking about.

  • If you happen to be creative, if you're a songwriter, are another kind of musician or an artist or or or any of the other number of things that you might be.

  • Find a way to make money and then practice your craft on the side because you will starve to death.

  • Otherwise, now some for some of you.

  • That won't be true, but it's a tiny minority.

  • Your best bet is to find a job that will keep body and soul together and parse off some time that you can pursue your creative thing because then, well, as a long term strategy of medium to long term strategy, it's a better one.

  • But it's got incredibly difficult for people musicians, for example.

  • It's incredibly difficult for new musicians to monetize their aircraft, even if they're really, really good at it.

  • So it's it's well so anyway, so don't be so.

  • I say Well, everyone's not everyone's not creative and everybody goes, Oh, that's terrible.

  • It's like it's not so terrible.

  • It's not something.

  • It's not self evident that you would curse someone with high levels of creativity.

  • So all right, so here's how our creative achievement questionnaire works.

  • What we did essentially was we thought up how many domains there are in which you might be creative.

  • And this is Remember, when you're designing a questionnaire, you want to be over inclusive because the statistics will take care of it, right, So you can you can take a big area of potential.

  • You can take a large area and aim your questionnaire at it, and you could do statistics.

  • Post talk to see if you're covering the area.

  • If if If the things that you're measuring are nicely correlated there, this you know there's something about them that similar.

  • If they're not correlated, then maybe you're measuring two different things and you can get rid of one of them.

  • That's fine.

  • So we did start with a pretty wide range, we thought.

  • Okay, well, what domains can you be creative in visual arts, painting and sculpture?

  • Then we had experts sort of rank order levels of achievement within those domains, And so if you were a painter, you could.

  • Zero gives you.

  • I have no training or recognize talent in this area.

  • Okay, so you really want to keep an eye on the zeros?

  • All right, so then I have taken lessons.

  • People have commented on my talents.

  • I have won a prize.

  • My work is being critiqued in national publications.

  • All right, so you get you get, you get 0 to 7 points, but you can indicate more than, you know.

  • Maybe that's happened to you more than once.

  • So And what happens?

  • This is interesting is that higher you are up in this hierarchy, the more likely it is that those things have happened to you more than once.

  • And that's that's another example of this weird thing called the parade.

  • Oh, principal or prices law, which is that?

  • It's sort of as good things happen to you.

  • The probability that more good things will happen increases right.

  • So because once you're famous, people give you all sorts of opportunities to do other things, right?

  • So your your success doesn't go like this goes like this 000 skyrocket.

  • That's how it works.

  • But getting from zero to getting from zero toe one if you're starting a business.

  • The hardest customer you'll ever get is your 1st 1 and then the second hardest one will be your 2nd 1 It's virtually impossible to get a first customer because they're going to say to you, First of all, you're gonna be selling to people who are basically conservative and they're not going to be evaluate.

  • They're not going to be willing or able to evaluate.

  • Whether you're damn product is good for anything.

  • And so they'll say, Well, who are your other customers?

  • And if your answer to that is, well, we don't have any.

  • It's like, Well, then what?

  • They're going to be the 1st 1 No, because people don't stick their necks out at all.

  • Not a bit ever.

  • And so unless you're well established in the market, especially if you're dealing with a big company, you could just bloody well forget it.

  • It's like a three year sale cycle.

  • Anyways, it's Rick because big corporations move very, very slowly, you might be able to find a small company that doesn't have much money.

  • Who would be willing to use your stupid product for nothing?

  • If you're really nice to get one customer that way.

  • It's very, very difficult.

  • And so you'll you'll end up, you know.

  • What do you think?

  • The royalty.

  • Just out of curiosity.

  • So I've written a book.

  • It's gonna be published by Penguin Random House in January.

  • What do you think the royalty is for an author on a book.

  • So you make something creative, you get a percentage of the sale.

  • What do you think?

  • The percentage is just out of curiosity, I guess.

  • Yeah, it's like, 5%.

  • So think about that.

  • So that means that you make your thing, and 95% of it belongs to someone else.

  • And that's if things are going quite well for you.

  • And it doesn't really matter what you manufacturer produced.

  • That's about what you can expect.

  • Sales, marketing, distribution.

  • It eats it all up.

  • So So Well, Anyways, you need to know these things because they're not self evident.

  • Okay, so seems to be working one by itself.

  • All right, so let's take a look.

  • Well, how else can you have creative achievement?

  • Well, you could be a musician.

  • I have no trading or recognized.

  • Tell it.

  • Recordings of my composition have been sold publicly.

  • That's the top, and my composition has been copyrighted.

  • Recorded critiqued in local population park publication.

  • I have composed an original piece of music.

  • Well, let's try this.

  • How many of you have composed an original piece of music?

  • Wow, there's lots of creative people in here that's very impressive.

  • So there must be 10 or 11 people in here.

  • Oh, that's cool.

  • So how about your?

  • Your copies of composition has been copyrighted?

  • How about it's bean?

  • The recordings have been sold publicly and actually sold.

  • How many people?

  • 22?

  • Okay, well, so what you can see is there's a rapid drop off in the number of people who say yes.

  • How many of you fit into categories?

  • Zero.

  • I have no training or recognize talent in this area.

  • Yeah.

  • Okay.

  • Okay.

  • Zero is the median score on all of these Median is the score.

  • That's the most likely for people to have rights different than the mean median score.

  • Zero.

  • So what's the median score in the entire creative achievement question here?

  • Zero.

  • You You add up all over all 13 domains.

  • The most typical score is zero.

  • So that's how creative people are.

  • There's zero creative, not at all.

  • Yes, everybody has a certain degree of creativity.

  • But for the most part well, the thing is, you could say that people have people, all people are created and that all people can generate ideas.

  • But the issue isn't whether or not you can generate ideas.

  • It's whether or not you can generate ideas that are different from the ideas that other people generate.

  • That's the critical issue, because it did mean it depends on how you define it.

  • You could.

  • Well, the novelty is a huge part of it, but that's that's sort of built into the definition of creative.

  • It has to be novel and useful.

  • And if your idea that you generate is the same as the idea that a bunch of other people have, it's not.

  • It's an idea, fair enough, and if you define creativity that way, then everyone's creative.

  • But it's a foolish way of defining creativity because everyone does it, and we know that there has to be something novel about creativity.

  • No useful ideas say these kind of results seem to be artistic as well as required specific, non creative skills for music and require yeah, are there ways to be created inside the artistic well, let's go through the rest of the domains because we did include domains that aren't that aren't artistic.

  • And yes, there are.

  • Engineering is a good example of that or writing nonfiction.

  • Those things tend to tilt more in the intellect direction.

  • But I'm concentrating most particular here on sort of creativity that would be a so associated with openness.

  • So, yeah, okay, so dance Wellit's roughly the same as music, so we won't we won't move forward into that architectural design.

  • My architectural design, My architectural design has been recognized in a national publication, creative writing.

  • My work has been reviewed in National Publications.

  • 1,000,000 books sold last year.

  • 250 of them sold more than 100,000 copies, right, so that's another.

  • That's another example of high risk high return.

  • So probably won't write a book.

  • If you write a book, probably no one who publish it.

  • If you publish it, almost certainly no one will buy it.

  • So you see you see what I mean.

  • There's exclusion, exclusion criteria.

  • There are so they're so thoroughly they're so difficult because it's very difficult to write a book, even a bad one, you have to work a long time to write a bad book, and then your book has to be pretty damn good before you're going to get it published.

  • And you also have to know about know how to go about getting it published.

  • That's also you don't send a book to a publisher, by the way, they don't want your stupid book.

  • They want a summary of the book.

  • They want an outline of the book.

  • They want three chapters of the book.

  • They want to know who the hell you are and why anyone should listen to you.

  • They want to know what other books your book is like.

  • And most importantly, perhaps they want to know where it would sit in a bookshelf in a bookstore.

  • And the reason for that is that, and I have trouble.

  • This is trouble with the books that I write is no.

  • One who is where to put them.

  • That's a big problem, because then the marketing people don't know how to market them, and maybe that's because they're more creative than usual.

  • It doesn't matter if there isn't a place that you can put the book where people confined it, then you're not gonna publish it.

  • And even if you do, you can't sell it because no one can find it.

  • So you just think about the difficulties and being a successful author, you're not gonna write a book.

  • It's too hard.

  • There's no damn way you're gonna get it published.

  • And if you do, it probably won't be a very good publisher.

  • Then they have to do a really good job of selling it and marketing it.

  • Then you have to enter the the market at the right time, right?

  • And then you have to be reviewed by the right people.

  • Then it has to be put in the right places.

  • It's like most what happens is your book or go out for a week.

  • No one will buy it and it'll disappear.

  • And that's if you've done 99.99% of things, right?

  • So OK, creative writing, our humor.

  • My humor has been recognized in a national publication.

  • That's the top, and I have written a joke or cartoon that has been published.

  • I've written jokes for other people.

  • I've worked as a professional comedian inventions.

  • I regularly find novel uses for household objects I've built a prototype of one of my designed inventions.

  • I've sold one of my inventions to people I know.

  • Has anyone in here built a prototype of a designed invention?

  • No one.

  • Okay, um, has anyone in here created original software for a computer?

  • 123 people?

  • Yes, three people.

  • How about, um I have sketched out an invention and worked on its design flaws.

  • How many people?

  • So maybe two or three?

  • Yeah.

  • I mean, if this was an engineering class and, you know, likelihood there would be more people in that but that this is more in the domain.

  • It's not exactly the artsy end of the creativity distribution.

  • It's more on the ideas and mechanical end of it.

  • And that's a reasonable way of thinking about it.

  • I would say so.

  • Scientific discovery.

  • I do not have training or recognized ability in this field.

  • I've received a scholarship based on my work and science or medicine.

  • How many people have received a scholarship based in their work on science and medicine?

  • Okay, Nobody.

  • So we don't have anybody that goes up that high.

  • I have won a prize at the science fair.

  • Other local competition anybody there?

  • Yes, There's maybe two or 34 people there.

  • So that means we've got four people in the class of about 150 who hit the, um, third, the second level of scientific discovery.

  • Anybody received a grant to pursue their work in science and medicine?

  • It's hard, highly unlikely.

  • You guys are mostly too young to have had that happen to you.

  • Okay, So theater and film, um, anybody who's at how many people have performed in theatre film?

  • Yeah, you're an artsy but Shay So my acting abilities have been recognized in local publication.

  • How many people for that one?

  • That's it.

  • Anybody higher than that I have directed or produced a theater or film production.

  • One, two.

  • Um, I've been pained.

  • There's a good one.

  • I have been paid to 12 too.

  • Okay.

  • Um, my theatrical work has been paid to direct a theatre film production.

  • Ha.

  • Got you there.

  • So you know you've done that.

  • Hey, congratulations.

  • You're way the hell up on the list.

  • Right?

  • Right, right, right.

  • Hard to monetize.

  • How many films did you make you made?

  • Four.

  • Did you make any money?

  • Yeah.

  • Oh, you did well congratulations.

  • Yeah, yeah, yeah.

  • Well, that's a That's a spit.

  • Then piracy happened.

  • So, so hard.

  • So for a while, like there was hers.

  • Yeah, he said, Yeah, right.

  • Yeah, well, that's one of the big problems with anything that could be distributed digitally.

  • It's like, Yeah, it's yeah, yeah, right, Right.

  • Timing is everything, and that's it's actually well, that's That's another one of the terrible cutoffs is that not only do you have to be right and have yourself together and produce the proper thing, but the market has to open it exactly that moment, so that you could more through.

  • There has to be a demand so people won't buy anything that they don't have a crying need for, because they have priorities.

  • Say imagine.

  • Everybody has 10 priorities and Ted Number 10 is important, but no one ever does it.

  • A number eight is important that no one ever does it.

  • And so you have to go talk to someone to buy what you have, and that has to be priority one or two for them because they'll say, Oh, that's good, we really need it.

  • But it's priority eight.

  • It's like Forget it.

  • They'll never buy your thing because they never get to prior to eight on their list of 10 priorities.

  • They only get down to, like, Priority four.

  • So and then the other thing that'll happen to is if you go up, try to sell your product.

  • You won't know who to talk to, and you'll end up spending 95% of your time.

  • This is especially true.

  • And companies with the people who will talk to you, right?

  • Obviously.

  • But those aren't the people who ever make any decisions.

  • So they'll tell you all sorts of good things about your product and how interesting they are.

  • But they'll never buy it because they can't make make decisions.

  • And you won't be able to get to the people who make decisions because other people who know how to do that have already got there.

  • And that's not you.

  • So that's very difficult as well.

  • Culinary arts.

  • My recipes have been published nationally.

  • Anyone?

  • How about I often experiment with rest?

  • This is purposeful experimentation, right?

  • Not accidental experimentation.

  • Yeah, All right.

  • All right.

  • My recipes have been published in local cookbook.

  • Anyone?

  • No.

  • Okay.

  • Okay, well, you get you get the point right, You see, you see how this works.

  • It's just well here ways you can be creative and here, strata of accomplishment within those ways.

  • And so then the question is, what does it look like?

  • Yes, it should be like how many have used in my yes, yes, fair enough.

  • And this probably needs to be updated to to reflect that.

  • So So there's there's the distribution of scores.

  • Now that's dismal.

  • That's a dismal thing, Toe, look out.

  • You have to understand that.

  • Why Look at this zero right?

  • The median person has not done anything creative ever in their life with anything on any dimension, right?

  • It's really important to know that.

  • And then you have these horrible people out here, right?

  • They do everything they do everything.

  • Prices law.

  • Here's prices law.

  • This is something to hammer into your heart, the square root of the number of people in a domain to 50% of the work.

  • Okay, so let's let's go through that.

  • You have 10 employees, three of them do.

  • Half the work makes sense.

  • That's reasonable.

  • You have 100 employees, 10 of them do half the work.

  • That's problem.

  • So the other 90% are doing the other half.

  • Who cares about them?

  • You have 10,000 employees 100 of them do half the work, right?

  • So here's Here's a nasty little law.

  • As your company grows in, confidence grows into it exponentially, and competence grows linearly.

  • Got it right because it with 10 it's three who were doing half the work.

  • But at 10,000 it's 100.

  • They're doing half the work.

  • So 9900 of your employees are doing as much as the best 100.

  • You might not even know who the best 100 are, but probably they know.

  • And maybe their peers know, too.

  • And so one of the things that's really interesting when big companies start to shake, which means maybe they've had a bad quarter, too bad quarters and the start price starts to tip down.

  • And the people, the hot people who have options, they're not very happy about that.

  • And maybe they start to announce layoffs.

  • All the 100 people who have opportunities leave, and they're the ones who were doing half the work.

  • So, boy, that puts your company in a pretty rough situation because now you've got the 9900 people left over who were only doing half the work.

  • And the next time you announce layoffs, the next most productive 100 leave.

  • And so then you're left with nobody who's productive at a massive overhead payroll prices law.

  • You can look that up to Seoul.

  • A price to solar Price is a guy who was looking at scientific productivity, and one of the things he found was when he was looking at PhD students is that the media number of publications for a PhD graduate when he did his work, which was in the early sixties, was one okay half a cz.

  • Many had to half a cz.

  • Many is that had 3/2 assed many is that had four to real step down.

  • And one of the corollaries of that is that there's a certain number of people who are hyper productive, and that's thes people out here.

  • And if you were graphing the distribution, let's say you graft.

  • How many people in a population of 300 had $10,000 in the savings account would look very much like this.

  • Some of them would have our some, some of them would.

  • Most people would have like no savings whatsoever.

  • The median person would have no savings whatsoever.

  • And then you go up here where the 1% is they have all the money.

  • But the thing you won't understand about that 1% issue that you always hear about is that it applies in every single realm.

  • Where there's difference in creative production, every realm doesn't matter.

  • Number of records produced.

  • Number of records sold.

  • Number of compositions written.

  • So here's Here's An example.

  • Five composers produce the music that occupies 50% of the classical rep repertoire.

  • Right, Bach, Beethoven, Brahms, Tchaikovsky.

  • Who's Mozart?

  • That's right, those five.

  • Okay, so here's something cool.

  • So you take all the music those people wrote.

  • 5% of the musical those people wrote occupies 50% of the music, that of their writing.

  • That's played.

  • So not only do almost all the composer's never get a listen, but even among the composers do get a list and almost none of their music ever gets played.

  • So so then that's it.

  • That's another example of this prices law scaling.

  • So when it applies to all sorts of things like number of hockey, goal scored is also distributed this way.

  • Number of basketball basketball basketballs successfully put through the hoop follows the same distribution size of cities follows the same distribution.

  • It's a weird.

  • It's a weird law, and you can think about it in part.

  • Why does this happen?

  • Well, imagine what happens when you play Monopoly.

  • What happens?

  • Everybody has the same amount of money to begin with, right?

  • So then you start playing.

  • It's basically a random game.

  • Well, some people start to win a bit.

  • Some people start to lose a bit, and then if you win, the probability that you'll keep winning starts to increase.

  • And if you lose, your vulnerability increases as you lose.

  • And then maybe you've got to say, six people playing monopoly soon.

  • One person has zero.

  • What happens when they have zero?

  • They're out of the game.

  • So zero is a weird number because when you hit zero, you're out of the game.

  • So so then, if you keep playing, people start to stock up zero right.

  • What happens at the end of the game?

  • One person has all the property and all the money, and everyone else has none, right?

  • That's what happens if you play an iterated trading game to its final conclusion.

  • And that's part of the law in a sense, that's underlying this kind of distribution.

  • So it's it's really it's it's It's not a consequence, necessarily of structural inequality.

  • It's built into the system at a deeper level than that.

  • So, you know, people talk about all the time about how unfair it is that 1% of the population has the vast amount of the money, and 1% of the 1% has most of that money, and 1% of the 1% of the 1% has most of that money.

  • But it is Ah, it's Ah, it's an inevitable conclusion of iterated trading games and we don't know how to fight it.

  • We don't know how to take from the people who have and move it to the bottom without it instantly moving back up to the talk.

  • Different people maybe, but still back up to the top because even the 1% churns a lot like, I think you have, ah, 10% chance if I remember correctly of a 10% chance of being in the top 1% for at least one year of your life and a 40% chance of being in the top 10% for at least one year in your life.

  • That's in Canada and the U.

  • S.

  • It's less so in Europe, so there's a fair bit of churning at the top end.

  • It's not the same people all the time.

  • You have the money, but it is a tiny fraction of the people all the time, who have all the money.

  • But with lays off, people talking do people inside redistricting to recreate.

  • You know, No one.

  • Usually I mean they do, but it's attenuated because the people, I mean, if you re shuffle the entire company and put everywhere somewhere else, there's some probability that some of those people would rise to the top, that we don't have to talk before.

  • But in that company that that isn't generally what happens.

  • People get stuck in their niche and they don't move.

  • So, yeah, this is you.

  • Can we wonder sometimes?

  • Well, how can companies die so quickly?

  • Well, they go, they go into a death spiral that's almost impossible for them to get out of.

  • So and it happened can happen extraordinarily quickly.

  • This is why you know, the typical Fortune 500 company only last 30 years, that's it.

  • It's not that easy for these bare moths to continue existence across time, so it's because it's really easy for something to die.

  • It's very unlikely that it will be built.

  • It's very unlikely that it will be successful and one successful.

  • It's very unlikely that it will continue to duplicate its success because the underlying landscape shifts on it and it doesn't know where to go.

  • And that's also partly because it's not that easy to integrate creative people into your company, right?

  • You certainly don't want them at the bottom because they're supposed to be people who are doing what they're told to do.

  • So you filter out a lot of them at the bottom and then you need them at the top.

  • But they've already being filtered out, and also creative people are troublesome to work with because they're always How do you evaluate a creative person?

  • You won't.

  • You almost can't by definition, because they keep coming up with new things and you don't have a good evaluative strategy for a new thing.

  • It wouldn't be knew if you had a good evaluative strategy for it, right?

  • It would have to be the member of a class that you've already encountered substantially.

  • So anyway, so the take home lesson from this is zero, right?

  • Right?

  • And then that's like That's like a graph of money, monetary distribution as well.

  • And I think the problem with being at zero is very difficult to get out of zero.

  • This is also why people get stuck in poverty.

  • You know, you can't get a bank account if you're if you don't have any money, right?

  • There's a bunch of things that start to move against you.

  • When you write zero that you can't shake.

  • It's very difficult to get out of the to get out of the that.

  • The pit here zero is a kind of pit.

  • Okay, so now we've got the creative achievement questionnaire, and we're gonna take your score and your score is summoned across all the categories and all the exemplars of the categories that you've chosen.

  • So then the question is, Well, can you predict creative achievement?

  • And this is this is this is how we did it with this was construct validation.

  • The first thing we wanted to know what was the creative achievement questionnaire actually associated with something that you might regard this creativity?

  • OK, so we got a a number of, of of of students to come in, and we gave them a collage kit.

  • And so then everybody got exactly the same kit, and then we had to make a collage out of the collage kit.

  • Then we have five artists rate the collage for quality, and then we averaged across the ratings.

  • Now the first thing you would do if you did that is because he would might think, well, can artists actually come up with a measure of how creative a collages?

  • And the answer to that is actually technical?

  • If all say you guys are the panel, if all of you identify the same collages as of high quality and the same ones as of low quality, then we can assume that there's something about your judgment that's like, independent of your idiosyncrasies.

  • We could say, Well, there is a judgment that emerges as a consensus across artists, and the first thing we found was that there was there was quite a high correlation between each artist's judgment of the quality of the collages.

  • I can't remember what the Inter greater reliability was, but it was something like 0.8.

  • It was really high.

  • So it was clear that trained artists could make reliable judgments about the quality of collage ins because you had to check that out first.

  • Because if if they're all over the place, you got no measure, right?

  • It's like everyone's using a different rulers.

  • Got no measure, so they have to be using the same ruler.

  • Well, we found that the correlation between the creative evaluation of collages and the total CQ was 0.59 which is mind boggling.

  • I told you last time that under 5% of published social studies, social science studies have our, uh, demonstrate a correlation coefficient of an effect size greater than 0.5.

  • This is 0.6, and if you, if you square it 0.5 squared is 25% of the various points.

  • Six squared is 36% of the variance.

  • 360.6 is a lot more than 0.5, and 0.5 is unheard of.

  • And so the fact that you could estimate someone's lifetime creative achievement by having them do a collage that four artists rate was an indication that there really is something real at the bottom of it, right?

  • That's like the definition of real tha creative personality scale.

  • You you circle adjectives that are associated with creativity from a very large list of adjectives that worked pretty well.

  • Goldberg's adjective markers.

  • That's another Big Five variant that was correlated at about 50.51 It doesn't measure openness to experience.

  • It just measures intellect, Um, but be that as it may, it's still in personality marker off trade openness.

  • It was correlated at 0.51 The Neo P. 00:42:34.060 --> 00:42

today, we're going to talk a little bit more about the fraction ation of openness to experience.

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2017年人格19:生物與特質。開朗/聰明/創造力II (2017 Personality 19: Biology & Traits: Openness/Intelligence/Creativity II)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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