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  • Thanks for coming.

  • Uh, well, we're super excited.

  • Opposites.

  • Basics.

  • Thio, announce that some of the details around the Falcon heavy rocket are not our launch.

  • Rocket development.

  • Really large drug development.

  • Um, and, uh uh, There's something we have alluded to in the past, but, uh uh, I've only just recently, um, completed the design and have been able to increase the thrust on paler capable rocket considerably over our previous estimations.

  • So with with falcon, heavy will be able to put of basically well over £100,000 into orbit.

  • Um, and in fact, it's looking, like, at least on the order of £117,000 maybe even above £120,000 depending on what the final performance numbers look like.

  • This is Ah, this is a rocket of truly huge scale.

  • Uh, as we mentioned in the press release, this is Ah, um, £117,000 is more than fully loaded.

  • Boeing 7 37 with 100 and 36 passengers, luggage and fuel in orbit.

  • So that that that is, uh, really, really humongous.

  • It's it's It's more paler capability than, uh, any vehicle in history of park from the Saturn.

  • Fine.

  • And so opens up uh uh, a range of possibilities for governing commercial customers that simply on present with the current lifting capacity.

  • Um, if you compare eloping capacity to, uh, say the space shuttle or the Delta ble heavy which of the two most capable vehicles in the world today we're twice more than twice the Cape Taylor capability of those vehicles.

  • Um, so although the space shuttle is retiring this year, I think, ah, uh, America's There's something in America would be really proud of the fact that there's actually gonna be a vehicle, um, with twice the capability of the space shuttle that's gonna be ready to launch the end of next year.

  • The initial launch will take place from, uh, from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, uh, where we have space launch complex for and but surely thereafter, we expect to be launching from Cape Canaveral as well.

  • So ah, so we will certainly have that capability on both coasts.

  • Um, and we expect to be launching felt heavy a lot, actually.

  • Whereas the Falcon nine can address about half the market, Falcon heavy can address Thea other half the market, which is the large governor commercial largest government commercial satellites as well as a CZ mission, as well as opening up new market opportunities for satellites and spacecraft that simply cannot be carried to space by the current currently available rockets.

  • So, um, s I'd expect to see, you know, potentially new opportunities arising because of Falcon heavy.

  • Also from a cost standpoint, which is critically important in space because costs have been steadily rising.

  • Cost of sincerely rising over the years.

  • Falcon Heavy represents ah, huge, uh, economic advantage.

  • Welcome.

  • Harry cost about his 3rd 1/3 as much per flight as a Delta four heavy, but carries twice much paler to orbit.

  • So it's effectively six fold improvement in the cost per pound toe over it.

  • In fact, uh, Falcon heavy sets a new world record for the cost per pound orbit of around about $1000 so that that's that's a pretty huge leap.

  • Leap in and capability.

  • Um, yeah, let's let's touch somebody.

  • In addition, to represent a new world record in cost of cost a pound to orbit the Falcon nine eyes also designed to meet the NASA human rating standards.

  • So for example, it is designed thio before you to handle structural safety margins that have 40% above the actual flight loads that it expects to encounter as opposed to normal.

  • Satellite launches were designed to only 25% above the flight loads.

  • It also has engineered capability, so you could lose multiple engines in the vehicle and still complete the mission.

  • It has cross feed between between the course, which is the first time in Iraq it has done has been able to cross Pete Propellant between the course, Um and, ah, triple redundant avionics.

  • Um, and all this is such that so that it can launch people if need be and do so safely.

  • Um, also, it has has so much capability, sociable capability, that than any other vehicles that I think we can start to contemplate realistically contemplate missions like a Mars sample return, which requires two minutes not look capable because you've got to send, uh, a lander to Mars that has still has enough propellant to return to us.

  • So, um, if you try to do a mission like that with a smaller vehicle, you have to send several, do several launches, and either do over the rendezvous or do some sort of much more complex mission.

  • Whereas with falcon heavy, you could potentially do it with a single flight.

  • Um, yeah, I think that's literally hundreds of questions.

  • Hi.

  • You mentioned it.

  • Wait to Mars orbit terms.

  • What?

  • More?

  • Wait.

  • Fine.

  • What?

  • That's acceptable show.

  • So the paler to Mars would be about 1/4 of its payload city.

  • Leo, we're talking about Have something like £30,000 to transmit injection moon.

  • It'll be a bit maybe 30 30 35% of that.

  • So it's it's sort of maybe 30 £35,000.

  • What, more to make this right.

  • Make this more human acceptable for human race.

  • Is this sufficient to be used for space tourism or other human rating things?

  • Or is that more about where sure?

  • Well, the Falcon nine is suitable for transporting people.

  • Thio low earth orbit, like to the space station and back.

  • But Falcon nine doesn't quite have the lifting power to go beyond the space station.

  • Where's Falcon?

  • Heavy?

  • Could could go, uh, really much further than low earth orbit.

  • Um, Falcon heavy is about half the lifting capability of us of a Saturn five.

  • So, in principle, you could, uh, send do another mission to the moon just by doing two launches of a falcon heavy.

  • You know, perhaps what one that delivered the return vehicle to the surface moon and one that delivered the lander to service the moon.

  • Um and, ah, a SZ faras.

  • It's we're designing a CE for humans.

  • Standards are concerned.

  • Falcon nine is designed to falcon heavy and fucking, I should say, are designed to meet all of the published and as a human rating standards.

  • It would only be if this, um, some unpublished standard or some new standard that's adopted, that it would not be in compliance.

  • Back playing.

  • How you?

  • No.

  • Yet but well, canine always said it would be about three years from when we receive from one to receive that NASA funding to conduct a demonstration.

  • And the gating factor on that is actually not the rocket, but the launch escape system on the spacecraft.

  • So about Falcon heavy would be, I mean, really cape of launching people.

  • I mean, I think assumes that since we've proven it out with a few, launch is really that there's no there's no change is that we are aware of that.

  • We would make a falcon heavy, uh, that there would be required to launch people, maybe changes to the to the spacecraft that it carries, but not to the launch vehicle itself.

  • Or, if they are, they're very minor.

  • So it's in the opens up a wide range of possibilities, such as returning to the moon, um, and conceivably even going going to Mars.

  • It would fire probably twice as many launches a CZ as a moon mission on your engine upgrades saying, Look, you're doing Yes, yes, Can you elaborate?

  • So who's your first or what?

  • Sure, So we have an upgrade in the works for our Merlin engine, going from £95,000 of sea level thrust to £140,000 to see little thrust.

  • So it's a pretty substantial upgrade.

  • Um, and we're also making some design improvements to improve the manufacturer ability so we could go to a high rate of engine production are anticipating.

  • If most demand ends up being like we think it is, we'll have production rate of about 400 restrictions a year, which I think would b'more entrance than the rest of world production combined.

  • As it is, we're already more than the rest of US production combined, although that's not saying much.

  • Unfortunately, um, we didn't have it.

  • So we're expecting to do an initial demonstration flight of Falcon heavy that that doesn't have a primary customer.

  • Although that could change, it will probably have some small, smaller secondary satellite's onboard.

  • However, we are highly confident of being able of announcing customers Will Falcon heavy for the second and subsequent flights?

  • Andi.

  • We're late stage discussions with both government commercial customers in that regard.

  • No.

  • Yeah, well, we actually even on Falcon nine have been launching.

  • Secondary satellites were launched some secretary satellites on the last flight of Falcon nine with the upcoming flight of Falcon on the 1st 1 that's going to the space station that will carry a couple of old com satellites.

  • So with every with most missions way expect to be launching secondary satellites.

  • It's not always with with the same dispense that would make it a little convenient, but But I think there's likely that most of all flights will carry Secretary settling okay free.

  • Well, uh, I think you should definitely count on Falcon heavy being there for the long term.

  • So it's said when it succeeds and certainly will.

  • Hopefully that is right from the initial launch, as it was with Falcon nine.

  • Um ah, the were starting off at at Vandenberg, but they will then be transitioning to the cape will be upgrading ah, launch pad at Cape Canaveral so it can actually you can process both.

  • Falcon nine NFL can heavy simultaneously, and they could both rolled to the pad.

  • We're also investigating the possibility that the cape of using one of the old shuttle pads for Falcon heavy Um, that's That's a possibility, but I default plan is to use our existing launchpad, but upgraded such that there's hangar where you compress the spell canine that rolls the pad and another hang a kind of 90 degrees where you compress the spell's heavy and either one of them control to the pats.

  • You have dual processing take place in terms of number of jobs.

  • It really depends on the launch rate, so I expect that number to grow over time.

  • But I think once it really gets going and we do expect more lunches to occur from the Cape than from from Vandenberg in the long hole with Falcon heavy because that the, uh, most of our commercial customers want to go to GTO, which obviously to Cape launches.

  • So expecting probably a couple 100 jobs.

  • It depends on customer demand.

  • So I'd say it's it's probably 2 to 3 years, but it really depends on what the customer, uh, adoption rate is.

  • I think I'm confident a couple other jobs when the cuffs custom adoption is high.

  • When we're doing several launches a year, I think we'll probably do as many Falcon heavy launches as we do Falcon nine inches.

  • I mean, our rough ballpark estimate is, uh, something in the order of 20 launches a year, of which roughly half a falcon heavy roughly half a falcon nine.

  • And of those lovely fixed the percent to 70% right?

  • Is this lot of wishful thinking?

  • What about competitors that are Prices must really be higher, but they are not.

  • In fact, I think we're unique in the launch business in publishing our prices on our website.

  • Where's other launch providers sort of treat treated like rug bazaar that they'll charge me what you think you can afford?

  • Um, you know, we believe in sort of everyday, everyday, low prices, you know?

  • Ah, and, um and we've stuck to our guns on that.

  • Uh, the Falcon nine cost you $50 million.

  • It's been that way for a while.

  • And the falcon heavy is, on average, about $100 million.

  • Um, so, uh, very, very confident of being able to maintain those prices.

  • Um, So and I say let no, let history be the judge here.

  • I am saying it.

  • We'll see if that remains true, but you have it on camera.

  • Sure.

  • What?

  • Uh, plus, he's here.

  • That's a +00 C three.

  • Is that what's meant by escape velocity?

  • Ah, you see it?

  • You're old.

  • Yeah.

  • Escape velocity is like this.

  • Yeah, it's sort of generally put in cynical units of C three, so Ah, uh, well, let's see.

  • We could do, uh, probably on the order of yeah, I think with a bit of a stretch, but you might be able to do it with falcon heavies.

  • Kind of depends on what kind of what kind of lost you really looking for?

  • Where the spacecraft that you're launching has some delta V capability, right?

  • Well, with this way, I I'm confident you could do such mission with two falcon heavies.

  • Um oh, if it's easier to get to the moon, Yeah.

  • If you had, if you had a sort of a small enough spacecraft, you could conceivably do it with one.

  • Welcome.

  • Heavy.

  • Um, so, uh, it depends on how big of a spacecraft, How many people you want to send.

  • But I think you could slim it down to just do it on on one fell camp people.

  • Okay, I'm sure you could do it with with two falcon heavy launches.

  • Um, if your spacecraft held a little bit of propellant on waters, presumably it does because it's gonna get back from from the asteroid, too.

  • Then I think you could do it with two parking heavy watchers.

  • I think we know a lot about going public before we do.

  • So we want to make sure that we have a very predictable revenue stream because the public markets don't bet like surprises.

  • Um and, uh, but I think that there's a decent chance we'll look at going public towards the next year.

  • But let's say we will, but it's a possibility.

  • Uh, it's it's possible that we could face CLC acquisition interest, but But I I have no interest in selling, and I am the controlling shareholder in the company.

  • We've had some.

  • We've had some enquiries, but But then I I'm pretty clear with them that that, um, that I would not give up the controlling stake in the company because Space Basics has some, you know, philosophical goals of entropic goals, which may not be coincident with the goals of I Lost Govern Contractor.

  • You're, I think, I think, in the next year, meaning November.

  • December is when we expect to have falcon heavy at the launch pad at Vandenberg uh, the launch itself.

  • It's a little difficult to predict because, uh, you know, we have to go through final regular regulatory approvals.

  • That could be things that we have to debug about the rocket and launch site interaction.

  • So I think most likely what what you'll see is rocket with pat towards the end of next year on Go along sometime, Uh, in 2013.

  • Ah, but you know, I don't speak speak full for specific customers, but I But I can't say that there is a strong interest from both the U.

  • S government and large commercial operators in felt heavy, and that we are at a Nad Vance stage of discussions with both and part of what's needed to really get them too complete, you know, sign up to to launch is to not be the first, so Ah, it's always possible that a customer they may jump in at the last minute and say, OK, they'll Bill Bill do it.

  • But it's a lot easier to get deals done if if customers know that they don't have to be the first flight.

  • So uh, so it's it's, you know, whatever gets a slight risk on our part to to be doing the first launch on our own funds on.

  • Of course it is.

  • It just cost us the money.

  • Um, but, uh, it's an important thing to do In order to get customers to sign up.

  • We have to do something similar with Falcon nine, right?

  • Production rate.

  • That's basically three rockets.

  • Right.

  • There it is.

  • Now what do you see that growing too?

  • What status to your other business?

  • Yeah.

  • So ramping up production is a number one focus.

  • The, uh uh That's what I have the whole company focused on on.

  • We're bringing in people both in rocket industry as well as from other industries like automotive on dhe high value aircraft production.

  • Because we'll be making more rocket engines than any company, actually, more than any country I think has ever made, um, at 400 booster engines a year, I guess it for Turbo Boost Ranch in Sierra is more than the rest of world production combined, so that that's pretty serious scale in the rocket business on then, in terms of of the number, of course, we're talking about 40 course, so it Z it's very high, very high volume.

  • But that's what's needed in order to do 10 Falcon nine's and 10 Falcon heavies in a given year as it is if you look at our launch manifest, Uh, we're, uh, just based on existing contracts that we have that you know, if you go out three or four years, we have already have on the Order of 10 launches Book of Falcon nine.

  • So, uh, and really done to fucking launches.

  • And we're only just putting a stake in the ground of Falcon heavy.

  • So 20 launches a year is not a not a crazy number.

  • It'll way.

  • Expect that to occur with that without any miracles.

  • And so we must make sure that we are building our production capability and a launch capability to meet that demand.

  • You're starting.

  • No, it was the job.

  • Sure.

  • So, um, right now our engine production rate is around 50 to 60 a year, that's that's what we do with the mod onesie.

  • Miller, 20 in addition to being a thrust upgrade and some forms of grade, is really designed for flexibility as well.

  • It's helpful that I have experienced from the the automotive world as well because in automotive, you know, ported energies Year is nothing.

  • So there a lot of techniques that the car history has developed to be able to do.

  • I've only production but also be very reliable and consistent.

  • Doing so, um, so I'm very confident that with the 1,000,001 D design will be able to both 400 engines year or frankly, even six or 700 engines here if we need to, um and then the same with the cores so well, making a significant investment in tooling and production process efficiency, uh, honing our software systems within the company that managed the procurement assembly and launch trying to automate a CZ much as possible.

  • Nonetheless, we are expecting to, uh, hire a lot more people.

  • And we let.

  • Last year we were quite dramatically of over 50% employee count growth.

  • Last year, we went from 812 100 in 2010.

  • Uh, this year, I think we'll probably grow, um, 15 to 20%.

  • And I'm actually intentionally slowing growth down a little bit just because I want to make sure we're building the company on the right foundation.

  • Um, And then next year, I expect the growth rate to continue to increase to maybe at the 30 to 40% level, and personal growth just won't work.

  • You have real estate supply change that, Um, yeah, we actually have been steadily acquiring the buildings around us and helping us was growing like the borg.

  • Uh, this actually, almost all the buildings around us have been acquired, and that's increased capacity in California by about 50% of your real estate.

  • But I think we actually do a lot more with the existing physical locations we have.

  • I actually really like density like a beehive of activity and people, you're really close together.

  • I think it creates a ah, much better esprit de corps.

  • Um, and, uh and, uh, you may have seen the announcement that in Texas we more than doubled the size of our rocket development facility in Texas, which is where we do development and acceptance.

  • Testing of the rocket engines and stages that That's an anticipation of a lot more growth.

  • So we're now at over 600 acres in Texas.

  • We're building up alone site at Vandenberg and will be enhancing alongside of the cape.

  • So it's a lot of growth across the booth.

  • One what?

  • More short?

  • Okay, because just combined one degree intern, we've heard it.

  • £1000.

  • $2000.

  • It's the mythical number, right?

  • But that's not so mythical anymore.

  • So how much it was sold on station, right?

  • They were gonna do all right.

  • It sounds like that's part here.

  • You know, if you were only watching one or two years, will you still be at the £1000 to orbit?

  • Or is that only credit?

  • Ah, good.

  • Good question.

  • I think I think we would need to launch maybe on the order of four for a year to maintain those those cost numbers.

  • But I'm very confident that we'll be able to do that.

  • That is, I think not.

  • Not a tall order.

  • I I think it's gonna be a lot closer to 10 then, for, um, also because of the commonality between Falcon nine and Falcon Heavy were able to spread the overhead across both vehicles because really Falcon Heavy is essentially Thea upgraded Falcon nine with two additional first stages of side boosters, so so that it's able to use the same tooling be made on the same line.

  • Um, and I think therefore significant improves the probability of holding cost numbers on Falcon heavy.

  • But, I mean, you're hearing it from me directly.

  • You know, it's being being recorded that that we will stick to those prices on.

  • Don't go above them except for you know, inflation and stuff like that.

  • You can count your dollars.

  • We will stick to what?

  • What we said.

  • Jessica Berman, with force in America.

  • Just a quick question just fried, right?

  • So the first mission is, uh, is really a demonstration flight.

  • It's there to prove that Falcon Heavy will work.

  • That it will live with the payload that were says it.

  • We say it can and we don't.

  • We don't have a primary customer for it, but we're likely to have several smaller secondary satellites on board.

  • They will do a variety of things.

  • Um, if we get lucky, maybe there'll be a big satellite at the last minute that wants to do thio by the flight at a reduced price, dragging you to be capable of going beyond.

  • Yes.

  • Well, Dragon is capable of re entering from even Ma's velocities.

  • Luna blocks these mobs blast is it's It's a It's a very capable vehicle.

  • Um, and, uh and it's not limited to simply low earth orbit operations.

  • And I can be a little late for the next one or what?

  • I wanna make sure I got to give a talk.

  • A bunch of foreign policy guys actually full hunch.

  • But, um, I could probably arrive a little later in the lunch, then.

  • Yeah, so let me let me try to answer as many questions I can at the back.

  • So you, uh it's certainly possible to do a Luna fly by mission with Falcon Heavy and Dragon so that you know where you sort of send a dragon spacecraft on a loop around the backside of the moon.

  • In order to land on the 1,000,000 there would need to be a propulsive landing.

  • A system developed, which we do not currently ah, have have planned.

  • It's certainly something way could potentially do.

  • But there's no question that was falcon heavy and dragon.

  • You could send you coulda really cool mission, which should be a Luna fly by.

  • So you could go past the vacuuming.

  • You even even go a little further than waiting a polyp, which, you know, every kind of cool I think.

  • One more question on pricing, Michael.

  • A few weeks ago, Gimnasia was addressing journalist down the street.

  • Very.

  • But you talk about how it was It's true.

  • Doubled prices?

  • Uh, no, I don't think so.

  • A lot.

  • Uh, well, possible.

  • In 2002 we didn't have any pricing because only started the company.

  • And basically July of 2002.

  • Um, so, uh, I mean, I didn't We didn't know what rocket we're making in 2002.

  • It's impossible to have doubled from question box.

  • Um ah, and I think but I think if you look at the pricing for Falcon nine.

  • Ever since way I rolled out the final specifications were Falcon nine were kept out, pricing consistent interrupt around $50 million level.

  • So I think we've been very, very solid in keeping Prices were steady, and we do not expect to make a price increase in the future except for inflation related adjustments.

  • In fact, over time we really want to reduce the cost per pound to orbit because that is the fundamental gating factor that prevents humanity from becoming a true space faring civilization.

  • It is just far too expensive to do space travel in the past.

  • And in order for us to have an excited for the country to have, for humanity have an exciting future in space, it is critical that we are constantly improving the cost a pound a little bit and with falcon heavy were demonstrating that we are Falcon Heavy is a significant improvement over Falcon nine in the cost per pound to a bit, and you know it's right.

  • It's right.

  • It's right around the not so mythical anymore $1000 per pound capability, Um, and as we improve the performance of Falcon heavy of a time.

  • We want to get it below £1000.

  • Um, so So, um, yeah.

  • Um well, we have an idea for a super heavy lift, uh, capability.

  • That would be sort of on the order of 150 metric tons to Ovitz about three times the capability of falcon heavy.

  • And that's something that we're working.

  • That that's that.

  • That's 50% bigger than a Saturn five.

  • Yeah.

  • Um, that's something that we're iterating with.

  • The NASA right now is put in s issued in our people design ideas on a super heavy.

  • We're one of the companies that NASA would.

  • It's a small contractor here, $2000 But we're exploring with how to do a 150 metric ton capability, but do so.

  • But it would complete the development rapidly.

  • Um, and and with an end result, which is well, under $1000 per pound to a bit are here off.

  • You could be the one didn't mean for you.

  • Uh huh.

  • No.

  • We're already slated to replace the shuttle as faras, which is the main thing.

  • It's a remote.

  • Most of what the shuttle buses carry cargo.

  • Uh, and if things go as well as we hope.

  • About three years will be launching astronauts to the space station.

  • What?

  • Uh, I have, uh, place post Chicago and Ashton or transport functions of the space shuttle.

  • So we do expect that liquor now, that's just later to cope with Falcon.

  • Heavy has potential to do a lot more than that.

  • Right.

  • Listen.

  • What?

  • Yeah, my colon.

  • Sure.

  • Well, Texas is where we do all of our engine development and stage testing.

  • Um, as I mentioned a moment ago, we've more than doubled the size of our property And in Texas now, 600 acres.

  • So we're expecting a significant workforce increase at I'm a great test site of I expect it to probably more than double over the next few years.

  • Thank you.

  • Overcoming this this'll conference will be posted on the National Press Club website for a few months.

  • You will find a link to it on space six.

  • Thank you.

  • Thank you all for coming.

  • Thank you.

Thanks for coming.

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SpaceX Next--獵鷹重型號新聞發佈會 (SpaceX Next - Falcon Heavy Press Conference)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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