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  • N HS England has declared a major incident over the Corona virus outbreak, asking hospitals over new wards to treat infectious diseases as the government unveiled its battle plan, warning that 1/5 of workers could be off work at the outbreak speak.

  • 12 new British cases emerged today, having arrived here from Italy, Germany, Singapore, Japan and Iran.

  • There are now 51 cases in the U.

  • K A total off 13,911 people have been tested.

  • 12 people have been discharged from hospital.

  • No one in the U.

  • K has delayed from the virus.

  • In a moment we'll hear from the health secretary, Matt Hancock, but first, here's our health correspondent Victoria McDonald.

  • They have a plan or 27 pages off it, outlining what they are doing for Corona virus and what they will do should it become an epidemic.

  • I fully understand public concern your concern about the global spread of the virus, and it is highly likely that we will see a growing number of UK cases.

  • That's why keeping the country safe is the government's overriding priority.

  • Flanked by the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser, the prime minister was seeking to reassure the UK public that all was well and they're carefully washed hands.

  • There's been a bit of confusing advice about things like shaking hands, and I'm intrigued to know whether you've developed a personal policy yourself.

  • So next time there's a visiting dignitary and you're standing on the doorsteps of darling streets, Are you going to shake their hands?

  • And if not, how you gonna verte an international incident?

  • Well, I will veto, I can tell you that I I I'm shaking hands contains lives that I was in the hospital the other night where I think the review.

  • There were actually a few credit bars patients, and I shook hands with everybody.

  • Mr.

  • Johnson had visited the Royal Free Hospital in north London on Sunday, where they are treating some covered 19 patients.

  • Downing Street later clarified that he hadn't actually shaken their hands.

  • Tonight, though, it has emerged that the N HS has now declared a major or level for incident.

  • In a letter sent from N HS, England hospitals have been asked to find extra areas that can be modified to treat those who need infectious disease care.

  • That's in addition to the specialist units and that they should identify how to increase their critical care and high dependency capacity.

  • Today, the numbers infected here increased again to now 51.

  • How far it will spread, of course, is not known.

  • Experts say a worst case scenario could be 80% with 1% dying, but that the majority of people will have mild or no symptoms.

  • There are four parts to this Corona virus plan there's contain.

  • That's where we are now tracing all cases.

  • Then there is a delay trying to push the peek out of the winter season so the N H s can cope better research that is already happening looking for vaccines and treatments.

  • And then there is mitigate.

  • That's when the epidemic has taken hold, and they have to look at other measures that could include school closures or calling in the Army.

  • Once it gets to the mitigation phase.

  • The plan says that some non urgent care may be delayed to prioritize and triage service delivery staff.

  • Roster ring changes may be necessary, including calling levers and retirees back to duty, and that may need new laws.

  • While in Scotland, the plan states health boards can apply for court orders for quarantine and medical examination off those suspected to have Corona virus.

  • At worst, the plan says, one and five employees could be absent from work, and that is a scenario doctors surgeries are preparing for star falling ill or having to take time off if schools do close.

  • In that case, this G P practice will use Skype calls for consultation.

  • That's fine.

  • Just let me brief you 24 They also have an isolation room.

  • Should a patient come in, ignoring the advice to ring 111?

  • If I work, force diminishes, We will reshape on do our best to to provide service will need to prioritize and stream and keep the essentials going.

  • Sure, people get the medications they need.

  • People are acutely unwell, are seen.

  • But some of the routine stuff may have to take going to the back burner for a bit.

  • But journal practice in the UK incredibly well set up to manage and cope with this sort of epidemic if it arrives.

  • Much of today's plan is about protecting the most vulnerable in society, the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, and also being prepared for what may well becoming our way.

  • Victor Room Donald reporting there.

  • Well, let's go over now to our political editor, Gary Given in Westminster.

  • Gary.

  • Interestingly, some voices in Whitehall today, saying about the government's full appearance on the stage today.

  • About time, too, I'm told by some have been in the room with Boris Johnson in earlier meetings that he'd he'd had a real worry and anxiety that going public with announcements like this would create more chaos than the virus itself.

  • Potentially, well, the government has definitely moved into a different mode now, and you're gonna see more of it very soon, I think, with MME.

  • Or public health information advertisements online activity on all the rest of it.

  • It's worth just taking on board the scale of what the government is doing here.

  • It's hard to think of peacetime president for the sort of powers there they're talking about is Victoria was saying there the idea of the army coming in to replace the police, the scale of immortality here at the worst end of the scenario, and we are talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths that might not otherwise have happened very much the worst end of the scenario on the government feel that there could be more data coming in from China, for instance, that will prove that wrong.

  • But it means that in Whitehall at the moment they are sitting there working out how you deal with that many deaths, even some committee, I was told, Looking at, How do you prioritize people who want their need, their dead to be buried quicker than others?

  • All sorts of other work going on in there?

  • We know.

  • The health secretary mentioned that sick pay might have to be looked at for people on zero contracts.

  • I'm told there was one meeting where they talked about postponing the local elections in May, Boris Johnson said.

  • For the moment, it's business as usual, but we could soon all be living in the extraordinary scenarios that have been pushed around tables inside Whitehall until now.

  • Thanks Gary.

  • Well in the United States, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by half a percentage point in a bid to shore up the economy and financial markets.

  • A middle the Corona virus panic, but the surprise move has got a mixed review from investors.

  • Shares in the US initially rose, but then fell back, dropping 500 points at one stage.

  • Our business and global trade correspondent Paul McNamara is here.

  • Paul, What's the thinking?

  • Behind this move will essentially stop the bleeding after more than a week off, market's tanking and trillions being wiped off global markets on lots of people sitting around at home thinking, Am I worth less?

  • But now the bigwigs at the U.

  • S.

  • Central Bank of said, You know what?

  • It's not just abstract numbers now in the stock market that going down, we're starting to see an impact in the real economy.

  • So in travel in tourism and it's sections of manufacturing that rely on parts coming in from China and the truth is, they don't really know where this will end because when they made the announcement, they spoke off evolving risks from the virus.

  • They pull that together, they decided to do something.

  • And has it worked?

  • I mean, has it worked?

  • Well, well, in short, no, for five minutes it did, and then markets carried on tanking.

  • Some investors seem to have thought, Wait a minute.

  • This movie is so swift.

  • The cut is so big.

  • What the hell did the Federal Reserve notes that we don't instead of injected it confidence.

  • So you made some people more nervous, some saying generally it's not a cut in interest rates that's needed a cutting the cost of borrowing, which can take a bit of time to seep through to the economy.

  • What they think is needed is a cutting taxes.

  • So people at home have more money in their pocket right away.

  • They could start spending right away.

  • It will boost the economy immediately.

  • What is happening here in the UK?

  • Well, some investors think the Bank of England might follow suit today.

  • Mark.

  • I know the governor.

  • Bank of England.

  • We're talking two MPs.

  • He spoke up.

  • He said that carnivorous could deliver a large economic shot.

  • Of course, interest rates already real.

  • Oh, hear that 00.75% is not a lot of wiggle room you've seen in the U.

  • S.

  • Has already had that much in effect, so attention could start swinging to the government.

  • The new chancellor was she soon as if he's gonna do anything, we'll see what it will be next Wednesday when it gives his first budget in not the best of circumstances.

  • Paul McNamara.

  • Thanks very much.

  • Thank you.

  • While they're there, I spoke to the health secretary, Matt Hancock at the Department of Health.

  • And it's coming up now, I hope.

  • State, How worried are you?

  • You losing sleep?

  • It is my job to worry about these things.

  • Ondas Health secretary.

  • When there's a major outbreak like this, then obviously I I worry about it and take the action that's necessary to protect the public.

  • And I understand why people, why members of the public of worried about it?

  • Of course, it's only natural.

  • S o.

  • The plan that we've published today is being, being being done to be as transparent as possible about the actions that we might have to take these actions we might tap state.

  • Not that we definitely will, because if we do have to do some of these things, which are pretty unusual for a government to have to do, we want people to know that it's part of a plan that it's led by the science incredibly important that it's led by the science.

  • Today.

  • We are not asking people to do Maur than wash your hands.

  • If you have a sneeze or cough catch it on dhe.

  • Follow the public advice Public health advice of you if you travel.

  • So if it's led by signs will be the scientists.

  • You decide when to go to the next level.

  • I mean, how will that decision be taken if you decide to start closing schools or whatever it might be?

  • Well, those decisions will be taken by their Cobra meetings that there's now a regular drumbeat of Cobra meetings on dhe.

  • The scientists are at the table, and they'll make their advice clear and very straightforward.

  • But is that based on thresholds of cases, you know, is it?

  • Once we get to 1000 cases, then we need to do something more or something else.

  • It's based on a judgment taking that into account, also taking into account the steepness of the curve, how rapidly the expansion of this virus is going and what other countries air doing Judgment will be made by the four semos of the UK Andi.

  • That will be a recommendation to Thio Cobra.

  • But it's essentially that science led decision.

  • Yes, if it does take off on dhe grips the population, the big crisis immediately is gonna be a shortage of beds and hospitals.

  • What's going to happen when intensive care units are full in hospital wards are full?

  • Well, the good news about this virus is that the majority of people about four in five, we think get mild symptoms.

  • So a bad cough basically.

  • But of course, there's people who get much more serious symptoms and the task of the N HS, especially in that peak phase.

  • Because this is a new virus.

  • None of us have the natural antibodies, and so therefore, if it becomes widespread, it will.

  • It's a lot of people at once.

  • Of course, that will be a a big challenge for the N HS, and things in that situation may have to be done differently.

  • For example, Maur treatment at home than we would have in normal circumstances.

  • But I was just with a doctor who was saying that the big worry on his mind is intensive care.

  • You know that intensive care is often quite close to capacity anyway.

  • If it's suddenly filled with Corona virus patients, doctors are gonna have to start making some awful decisions about who gets treatment and who doesn't.

  • Well, doctors do have to make that sort of decision A Love the terrace, and it'll be more acute.

  • Well, naturally, when there's more pressure on the neck dress, those air decisions, operational decisions that senior doctors have toe I always have to make, especially at times of pressure.

  • But thank goodness we've got the N hs because that means that everybody knows that the the system society as a whole, if you like, will be doing everything we can to help people according to clinical need, not according to any other consideration.

  • Obviously, you're trying to manage public fear, and you don't want panic to spread on.

  • The numbers of people who would be likely to die in a mass infection are still relatively small, even want 1 to 2%.

  • But according to age groups, it really changes, doesn't it?

  • With the older people you're talking about, possibly one in seven people over 80 dying.

  • I mean, that's a very shocking statistic for the older people in very frightening.

  • Well, I've course understand why people are worried.

  • This is why we're doing everything we can to contain this disease.

  • There are some things that are highly effective in terms of reducing the spread of the virus but not very costly in terms of the disruption, like washing your hands.

  • So we should be doing those.

  • There are other things where we can make a targeted approach that supports, for instance, elderly people, people with underlying health conditions.

  • We're not asking people do this now, But should we need to thinking about self isolation for people not because they have the disease, but in order to protect them from getting so overrated?

  • Self isolate.

  • Anyway, once this takes off, that is not what we're saying now because the timing issues you get.

  • But you can see how that might be the sort of thing that would have a big positive impact.

  • Likewise, we did a lot of work on making sure that people who are in care homes who are often vulnerable Andi elderly, the care homes and the social care system gets to support it needs.

  • There are some pretty grim practical implications of this, though, on the sounds of the number of deaths.

  • I mean, you know, there have been reports of high park being turned into a amore, is that correct?

  • Well, that isn't something that I've seen.

  • It's we're working with local councils local resilience forums as they're called to make sure that all of these eventualities looked into on that we're prepared.

  • The reasonable worst case scenario is obviously, if if all the things go wrong, if they're if they're, if the rates of infection all of our highest the scientists estimate there could be Andi impact of that, as bad as it could be.

  • We do that to make sure we're ready for and we've got plans for anything that this virus can throw at us.

  • But of course we're working.

  • If we're working incredibly hard to try to stop them from being the outcome and trying to protect people, DeLay is the key part of your strategy trying to delay whenever this becomes really big out of the winds of period.

  • Well, how can you actually do that?

  • What if this is a disease?

  • Yeah, delay is that is the next part of the phase should we fail to contain now, the the the actions that were taking during the contain phase, which were in now are also helpful to delay, especially washing your hands.

  • And then when we do find a positive case making sure that all of their contacts are are themselves contacted and tested on Dhe to try to stop the spread, so the the delay phase includes that.

  • But it also includes, considering some of them much bigger options that have much bigger on disruption, for instance, to do with mass participation events.

  • If this virus goes through the whole population but does that a lot once, then clearly the impact both on the N hs on dawn.

  • Normal life more broadly will be very, very significantly impacted during the peak because so many people will be ill at once.

  • If that happens over a longer period of time, then although it's longer, we're better able to cope a za society.

  • And we think that there's a good chance that in the summer this will have less impact because you don't have the other communicable diseases my uncle think from.

  • Thank you Well, despite today's government announcement, there's still a lot of confusion about what to expect if the outbreak does get a lot worse and how to protect ourselves.

  • And those who are most vulnerable with so many questions and precious few answers are north of England.

  • Correspondent Claire Fallon has been in Merseyside asking people there, what they make of it, The printouts say only two bottles each.

  • The empty shelves say, even with rationing supply, can't keep up with demand.

  • So far, at least, the clamor for anti back gel is the most visible sign of the steps being taken by some.

  • But for now, for many, life is as it was before, with little expectation that will change.

  • I'm not worried.

  • I'm not doing anything differently, I guess, or being blown out of proportion if things escalate anymore is the potential of getting people to work from home.

  • For example, it's not practical for you.

  • Little can't work from home.

  • We got coming here.

  • I think people continue to come in.

  • I don't think it's gonna I don't think it'll affect business.

  • I think we are more likely to catch it for so many people come in the shop.

  • So on the day, the next steps in slowing down the spread of Corona virus were laid out in Liverpool.

  • We did find some evidence of growing concerns like the hand gel next to the magazines in waiting rooms and what Frank told us about the steps being taken at his local church a greeting of peace.

  • We're not going to do with that.

  • We're not having a communion wine for the duration of this prices In his nineties, Frank knows he's in an actress group, but he says he won't hide away to avoid the virus.

  • I used to be, um uh, keep calm and carry on.

  • I think it's keep calm and wash your hands.

  • In an age of repeatable mantras, you know, the ones keep calm and wash your hands might just become a thing, but with more cases will come more extreme steps.

  • Retired health workers like Fiona may be asked to go back to work reservations because I moved 60 and you know, they have said that obviously the sixties are more vulnerable.

  • Yeah, if they were, if they really needed people, you know, on the front line.

  • Yeah, I would go.

  • According to Dr John Cokely, in reality, a relatively small number of eggs medics would be of use since he retired.

  • He told me from I T systems to medical techniques, it's all changed.

  • I wouldn't feel personally safe, and I certainly don't think patients under my care would be safe in an environment I haven't set foot in for five years, I'd be very happy to go back in a sort of advisory or supportive capacity.

  • It's just I wouldn't be much use as a doctor business as usual for now at least.

  • But we warned Corona virus on the steps to slow its spread Mean, for most of us, life will change well.

  • With me now is Professor John Edmonds from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

  • He's involved with mapping the spread of infectious diseases.

  • Thanks very much for coming in.

  • There is no doubt that there's a growing sense of seriousness around this Now.

  • The N HS has declared Corona virus a level four instant, and that doesn't happen very often, does it?

  • No.

  • Ah, nde.

  • But this is if if we're right, the indication to this virus are that this could be a very serious incident, much more serious than we've had for many, many years.

  • And you heard the health secretary talking about how the monitoring the sort of steepness of the curve, how this virus is progressing.

  • What is your modeling showing?

  • So we're looking at what might happen into the future over the next few months, on.

  • We're looking at mitigation strategy, so just the sort of things that he's been talking about.

  • So how effective might they be at slowing down this epidemic and reducing the peak and making it more manageable for the health service and community in general?

  • And how optimistic is that picture?

  • I think if we follow the advice when it comes out and it's not for now, it's for it will come in the coming weeks or months.

  • You know, if we follow the advice carefully and we will all have to do it, that's the That's the important thing because if people don't follow the advice, then it will have an effect on everybody.

  • So if we all start to follow the advice properly, then it should slow the epidemic right down.

  • I mean, you can see the effect that it's had that these sorts of strategies have had in Wuhan in China has stopped the epidemic there and and it was it was really raging at one point Now we're not gonna do anything anywhere near a stringent is that.

  • But nevertheless, we can almost certainly slow the epidemic down, so it doesn't put so much pressure on the on the health service.

  • The government is talking about this policy of containment.

  • At what point?

  • What numbers does it suddenly think?

  • Well, we're losing the battle to contain.

  • We now have to change strategy to delay.

  • You don't just take one isolated measures.

  • You wouldn't just take the numbers of cases and say, Okay, we've lost now.

  • I mean, you take a lot of different measures.

  • You'd look for a fraction of cases that are not linked to anything else.

  • That's one of the important indicators you could look a genetic sequence data to see how related the different cases are and so on.

  • So there's a number of different indicators that would be used to imply.

  • Okay, we're in the next phase now, in terms of whether the N.

  • H.

  • S can cope.

  • When Matt Hank help talked, talked about the worst possible scenario, How worried do you?

  • So the worst possible scenario is very bad.

  • There's no question about that on DSO, but we can manage it, you know, so we can assess so but it's it's not for the N hs to manage it primarily, yes, they would be busy trying to manage it.

  • It's for all of us to help manage it on.

  • The prime minister's insists that he's still shaking hand should he be?

  • I think now the risk is pretty low of those sorts of things.

  • Quite honestly, there's there are cases here in this country.

  • That's probably Maur that we haven't identified yet.

  • But you know, there's 60 million of us.

  • We've identified 50 cases.

  • So you know the risk of the moment is low.

  • Yeah, that's the whole point of this face is trying to keep.

  • The risk is low as possible.

  • Try and slow the epidemic as much as possible, and that's probably working later on.

  • Then in a month or two months time or so on, there will be far more cases.

  • And then it will be much more important to take those kind of surface.

N HS England has declared a major incident over the Corona virus outbreak, asking hospitals over new wards to treat infectious diseases as the government unveiled its battle plan, warning that 1/5 of workers could be off work at the outbreak speak.

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