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  • There's a great big elephant in the room called the economy.

    經濟是個很重要卻又被忽視的話題

  • So let's start talking about that.

    讓我們來聊聊它

  • I wanted to give you current picture of the economy.

    我想讓你們對目前的經濟狀況有個概念

  • That's what I have behind myself.

    在我身後這個

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • But of course what we have to remember is this.

    當然,我們要記得這個

  • And what you have to think about is,

    然後有意識知道,

  • when you're dancing in the flames, what's next?

    當情況危急的時後, 下一步怎麼做

  • So what I'm going to try to do in the next 17 and a half minutes

    所以在接下來的17分半中我要做的

  • is I'm going to talk first about the flames --

    是先來談談現在的危機--

  • where we are in the economy --

    目前的經濟狀況--

  • and then I'm going to take three trends

    讓後我將用三個

  • that have taken place at TED over the last 25 years

    在TED過去25年裡提到的

  • and that will take place in this conference

    然後會出現在這個會談裡的趨勢

  • and I will try and bring them together.

    我會試著將它們統整

  • And I will try and give you a sense of what the ultimate reboot looks like.

    然後給各位一個最終復甦情形的概況

  • Those three trends are

    這三個趨勢是

  • the ability to engineer cells,

    細胞工程

  • the ability to engineer tissues

    組織工程

  • and robots.

    還有機器人工程

  • And somehow it will all make sense.

    大家會看到為什麼

  • But anyway, let's start with the economy.

    不過我們先從談經濟開始

  • There's a couple of really big problems that are still sitting there.

    有一些很大的問題還是存在

  • One is leverage.

    一個是經濟槓桿作用

  • And the problem with leverage is

    然後它的問題是

  • it makes the U.S. financial system look like this.

    讓美國財務體系變這樣

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • So, a normal commercial bank has nine to 10 times leverage.

    所以,一般的商業銀行十次裡會有九次會受到這個影響

  • That means for every dollar you deposit it loans out about nine or 10.

    這表示你每存1塊錢銀行可以貸款出9到10塊

  • A normal investment bank is not a deposit bank,

    在一個普通的投資銀行而非存款銀行

  • it's an investment bank;

    這是投資銀行

  • it has 15 to 20 times.

    可貸款出15到20倍的錢

  • It turns out that B of A in September had 32 times.

    結果顯示美國銀行在九月份是32倍

  • And your friendly Citibank had 47 times.

    花旗銀行是47倍

  • Oops.

  • That means every bad loan goes bad 47 times over.

    這表示每個壞帳會有47倍的影響

  • And that, of course, is the reason why all of you

    然後,當然,這是為什麼在坐各位

  • are making such generous and wonderful donations

    做出慷慨的捐獻

  • to these nice folks.

    給這個演講

  • And as you think about that,

    當你想到這裡

  • You've got to wonder: so what do banks have in store for you now?

    你一定好奇:那 (錢都貸款出去了)銀行現在幫你們存了什麼

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • It ain't pretty.

    情況不妙

  • The government, meanwhile, has been acting like Santa Claus.

    政府同時, 一直在扮演聖誕老人的角色

  • We all love Santa Claus, right?

    我們都喜歡聖誕老人對吧?

  • But the problem with Santa Clause is,

    但問題是

  • if you look at the mandatory spending of what these folks have been doing,

    如果你看到這些人做的事所用到的強制開銷

  • and promising folks,

    還有他們給的承諾

  • it turned out that in 1967, 38 percent was mandatory spending

    結果變成在1967年, 百分之38是強制開銷

  • on what we call "entitlements."

    用在我們所謂的"權益“上

  • And then by 2007 it was 68 percent.

    然後到了2007變成百分之68

  • And we weren't supposed to run into 100 percent until about 2030.

    在2030年,開銷不應該會變成百分之百

  • Except we've been so busy giving away a trillion here, a trillion there,

    這邊一下用了百萬兆, 那邊一下又用了百萬兆

  • that we've brought that date of reckoning forward

    所以將預估結果提前

  • to about 2017.

    到2017年

  • And we thought we were going to be able to lay these debts off on our kids,

    我們認為可以有能力不讓孩子承擔這樣的債務

  • but, guess what?

    但是猜猜看

  • We're going to start to pay them.

    我們已經開始在還債了

  • And the problem with this stuff is, now that the bill's come due,

    問題現在又變成,賬單要到期了

  • it turns out Santa isn't quite as cute when it's summertime.

    而聖誕老人在夏季不是那麼可愛

  • Right?

    對不對?

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Here's some advice from one of the largest investors in the United States.

    這是美國其中一個最大的投資家提出的一些建議

  • This guy runs the China Investment Corporation.

    這個人經營中國的投資集團

  • He is the main buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds.

    他是美國國庫卷的主要買者

  • And he gave an interview in December.

    在12月時接受訪問

  • Here's his first bit of advice.

    這是他給的第一個建議

  • And here's his second bit of advice.

    這是第二個

  • And, by the way,

    順道一提

  • the Chinese Prime Minister reiterated this at Davos last Sunday.

    中國國務總理在上星期日的達沃斯也重述這些要點

  • This stuff is getting serious enough

    情況開始不樂觀

  • that if we don't start paying attention to the deficit,

    如果我們不開始重視缺失

  • we're going to end up losing the dollar.

    我們最後會造成虧損

  • And then all bets are off.

    光這個就會帶來嚴重的後果

  • Let me show you what it looks like.

    讓大家看看情形會怎麼樣

  • I think I can safely say

    我敢說

  • that I'm the only trillionaire in this room.

    我是目前這邊的唯一百萬兆富翁

  • This is an actual bill.

    這是個的紙鈔

  • And it's 10 trilliion dollars.

    價值10千萬兆美金

  • The only problem with this bill is it's not really worth very much.

    問題是它並不真的直那麼多錢

  • That was eight bucks last week, four bucks this week,

    上星期它值8塊, 這星期4塊

  • a buck next week.

    下星期只剩1塊了

  • And that's what happens to currencies when you don't stand behind them.

    這就是當我們無法支撐匯率時會發生的情況

  • So the next time somebody as cute as this shows up on your doorstep,

    所以下次有這麼可愛的人出現在你家門口

  • and sometimes this creature's called Chrysler and sometimes Ford and sometimes ... whatever you want --

    有時候它叫做克萊斯勒或是福特或有時後...隨你喜歡叫什麼--

  • you've just got to say no.

    你只能拒絕

  • And you've got to start banishing a word that's called "entitlement."

    然後你必須開始不在用“權益”這個字

  • And there reason we have to do that in the short term

    需要這麼做,在短期來看

  • is because we have just run out of cash.

    是因為我們沒錢了

  • If you look at the federal budget, this is what it looks like.

    如果你看聯邦政府預算,就是這個樣子

  • The orange slice is what's discretionary.

    橘色部份是自由資金

  • Everything else is mandated.

    其他都是強制資金

  • It makes no difference if we cut out the bridges to Alaska in the overall scheme of things.

    就算斷去通往阿拉斯加的橋整個情形也不會改變

  • So what we have to start thinking about doing

    所以我們需要開始著手的

  • is capping our medical spending

    是限制醫療支出

  • because that's a monster that's simply going to eat the entire budget.

    因為它是個會吞噬整個預算的怪物

  • We've got to start thinking about asking people

    我們必須開始

  • to retire a little bit later.

    要求大家晚點退休

  • If you're 60 to 65 you retire on time.

    60到65歲退休就差不多

  • Your 401(k) just got nailed.

    退休金受的影響就不大

  • If you're 50 to 60 we want you to work two years more.

    如果你是在50到60歲, 那希望你可以在多工做兩年

  • If you're under 50 we want you to work four more years.

    如果你還不到50歲,希望你可以多工做四年

  • The reason why that's reasonable is,

    為什麼這麼說合理是因為,

  • when your grandparents were given Social Security,

    當你的祖父母得到社會保障時

  • they got it at 65 and were expected to check out at 68.

    他們大概65歲開始領到68歲

  • 68 is young today.

    現在68歲算年輕的了

  • We've also got to cut the military about three percent a year.

    我們也需要縮減一年3%的軍用預算

  • We've got to limit other mandatory spending.

    我們必須限制一些強制開銷

  • We've got to quit borrowing as much

    我們必須停止這麼多的借貸

  • because otherwise the interest is going to eat that whole pie.

    不然的話, 利息會佔據整個趨勢

  • And we've got to end up with a smaller government.

    然後剩下小規模的政府

  • And if we don't start changing this trend line,

    如果不開始改變這個趨勢

  • we are going to lose the dollar

    經濟就會受到影響

  • and start to look like Iceland.

    變得像冰島一樣

  • I got what you're thinking.

    我知道你們在想什麼

  • This is going to happen when hell freezes over.

    這一切除非地獄凍結了才會發生

  • But let me remind you this December it did snow in Vegas.

    但是讓我提醒你, 拉斯維加斯今年十二月的確下雪了

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Here's what happens if you don't address this stuff.

    如果你們再不關注這些議題,以下這樣的事就會發生

  • So, Japan had a fiscal real estate crisis

    日本在80年代的時後

  • back in the late '80s.

    發生過地產財務危機

  • And its 225 largest companies today

    現今225間最大的公司

  • are worth one quarter of what they were 18 years ago.

    價值只有十八年前的四分之一

  • We don't fix this now,

    現在我們不重視問題

  • how would you like to see a Dow 3,500 in 2026?

    你想在2026年看見道瓊指數3,500嗎?

  • Because that's the consequence of not dealing with this stuff.

    因為那就是現在不重視這些問題的後果

  • And unless you want this person

    除非你要這個人

  • to not just become the CFO of Florida, but the United States,

    不只是當佛羅里達的財務長,還是整個美國的財務長

  • we'd better deal with this stuff.

    我們現在最好開始重視這些問題

  • That's the short term. That's the flame part.

    這是短期來看. 比較棘手的部份

  • That's the financial crisis.

    財務方面的危機

  • Now, right behind the financial crisis there's a second and bigger wave

    現在, 跟在財務危機後面的第二波更大的浪潮

  • that we need to talk about.

    我們必須來談談

  • That wave is much larger, much more powerful,

    這個問題更強殺傷力更大

  • and that's of course the wave of technology.

    當然,就是科技浪潮

  • And what's really important in this stuff is,

    這個重要的地方是

  • as we cut, we also have to grow.

    我們縮減預算的同時也必須要成長

  • Among other things, because startup companies

    別的先不提,新起的公司

  • are .02 percent of U.S. GDP investment

    佔據美國國民所得投資的 0.02%

  • and they're about 17.8 percent of output.

    帶來17.8%的出產

  • It's groups like that in this room that generate the future of the U.S. economy.

    像一匹帶領美國未來經濟的人聚集在一起

  • And that's what we've got to keep growing.

    而這就是我們必須繼續成長的方向

  • We don't have to keep growing this bridges to nowhere.

    我們不必毫無目標的發展

  • So let's bring a romance novelist into this conversation.

    所以現在我們把浪漫新主義者帶進來

  • And that's where these three trends come together.

    這就是三波趨勢匯集的地方

  • That's where the ability to engineer microbes,

    微生物工程

  • the ability to engineer tissues,

    組織工程

  • and the ability to engineer robots

    和機器人工程

  • begin to lead to a reboot.

    將帶領復甦

  • And let me recap some of the stuff you've seen.

    讓我重述一下你們看過的東西

  • Craig Venter showed up last year

    去年Craig Venter來過

  • and showed you the first fully programmable cell that acts like hardware

    展示給大家看到第一個可以完整編程, 運作起來像是電腦硬體的細胞

  • where you can insert DNA and have it boot up as a different species.

    你可以植入DNA, 並將它驅動行成不同的生物

  • In parallel, the folks at MIT

    在這同時,MIT的人

  • have been building a standard registry of biological parts.

    已經開始建立生物器官的標準制式

  • So think of it as a Radio Shack for biology.

    把它想成是給生物學的Radio Shack (美國電子物件零售商)

  • You can go out and get your proteins, your RNA, your DNA, whatever.

    你可以出去買到自己的蛋白質,RNA, DNA, 等等

  • And start building stuff.

    然後開始組裝你要的東西

  • In 2006 they brought together high school students and college students

    在2006年他們聚集高中生和大專院校學生

  • and started to build these little odd creatures.

    開始做這些小生物

  • They just happened to be alive instead of circuit boards.

    它們活起來了而並非只是電路板

  • Here was one of the first things they built.

    這是其中一個他們做的東西

  • So, cells have this cycle.

    細胞有個循環

  • First they don't grow.

    一開始它們不會長

  • Then they grow exponentially.

    然後就一下長很快

  • Then they stop growing.

    然後就不會停止生長了