Name: 【TED】胡安-恩裡克斯：人類的下一個物種（The next species of human | Juan Enriquez）。 (【TED】Juan Enriquez: The next species of human (The next species of human | Juan Enriquez))
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T04:56:22.000Z
Duration: 18 min 51 s

There's a great big elephant in the room called the economy.

經濟是個很重要卻又被忽視的話題

I wanted to give you current picture of the economy.

我想讓你們對目前的經濟狀況有個概念

But of course what we have to remember is this.

when you're dancing in the flames, what's next?

當情況危急的時後， 下一步怎麼做

So what I'm going to try to do in the next 17 and a half minutes

所以在接下來的17分半中我要做的

is I'm going to talk first about the flames --

that have taken place at TED over the last 25 years

and that will take place in this conference

然後會出現在這個會談裡的趨勢

And I will try and give you a sense of what the ultimate reboot looks like.

然後給各位一個最終復甦情形的概況

But anyway, let's start with the economy.

There's a couple of really big problems that are still sitting there.

it makes the U.S. financial system look like this.

So, a normal commercial bank has nine to 10 times leverage.

所以，一般的商業銀行十次裡會有九次會受到這個影響

That means for every dollar you deposit it loans out about nine or 10.

這表示你每存1塊錢銀行可以貸款出9到10塊

A normal investment bank is not a deposit bank,

在一個普通的投資銀行而非存款銀行

It turns out that B of A in September had 32 times.

結果顯示美國銀行在九月份是32倍

That means every bad loan goes bad 47 times over.

這表示每個壞帳會有47倍的影響

And that, of course, is the reason why all of you

然後，當然，這是為什麼在坐各位

are making such generous and wonderful donations

You've got to wonder: so what do banks have in store for you now?

你一定好奇：那 (錢都貸款出去了）銀行現在幫你們存了什麼

The government, meanwhile, has been acting like Santa Claus.

政府同時, 一直在扮演聖誕老人的角色

if you look at the mandatory spending of what these folks have been doing,

如果你看到這些人做的事所用到的強制開銷

it turned out that in 1967, 38 percent was mandatory spending

結果變成在1967年, 百分之38是強制開銷

And we weren't supposed to run into 100 percent until about 2030.

在2030年，開銷不應該會變成百分之百

Except we've been so busy giving away a trillion here, a trillion there,

這邊一下用了百萬兆， 那邊一下又用了百萬兆

that we've brought that date of reckoning forward

And we thought we were going to be able to lay these debts off on our kids,

我們認為可以有能力不讓孩子承擔這樣的債務

And the problem with this stuff is, now that the bill's come due,

問題現在又變成，賬單要到期了

it turns out Santa isn't quite as cute when it's summertime.

而聖誕老人在夏季不是那麼可愛

Here's some advice from one of the largest investors in the United States.

這是美國其中一個最大的投資家提出的一些建議

This guy runs the China Investment Corporation.

He is the main buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds.

the Chinese Prime Minister reiterated this at Davos last Sunday.

中國國務總理在上星期日的達沃斯也重述這些要點

that if we don't start paying attention to the deficit,

that I'm the only trillionaire in this room.

我是目前這邊的唯一百萬兆富翁

The only problem with this bill is it's not really worth very much.

That was eight bucks last week, four bucks this week,

And that's what happens to currencies when you don't stand behind them.

這就是當我們無法支撐匯率時會發生的情況

So the next time somebody as cute as this shows up on your doorstep,

所以下次有這麼可愛的人出現在你家門口

and sometimes this creature's called Chrysler and sometimes Ford and sometimes ... whatever you want --

有時候它叫做克萊斯勒或是福特或有時後...隨你喜歡叫什麼--

And you've got to start banishing a word that's called "entitlement."

然後你必須開始不在用“權益”這個字

And there reason we have to do that in the short term

If you look at the federal budget, this is what it looks like.

如果你看聯邦政府預算，就是這個樣子

The orange slice is what's discretionary.

It makes no difference if we cut out the bridges to Alaska in the overall scheme of things.

就算斷去通往阿拉斯加的橋整個情形也不會改變

So what we have to start thinking about doing

because that's a monster that's simply going to eat the entire budget.

因為它是個會吞噬整個預算的怪物

We've got to start thinking about asking people

【TED】胡安-恩裡克斯：人類的下一個物種（The next species of human | Juan Enriquez）。 (【TED】Juan Enriquez: The next species of human (The next species of human | Juan Enriquez))

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【TED】胡安-恩裡克斯：人類的下一個物種（The next species of human | Juan Enriquez）。 (【TED】Juan Enriquez: The next species of human (The next species of human | Juan Enriquez))

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