Name: 2016年喬-拜登與希拉里-克林頓的勝利有何不同？ (How Joe Biden's wins differ from Hillary Clinton's in 2016)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:34:20.000Z
Duration: 9 min 17 s
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As we look at the Biden wins tonight, let's let's assume he's the Democratic nominee, the winds tonight that we're seeing.

What does that bode for him going into the fall November against President Trump?

The Biden campaign has every right to say what they have done tonight and what they did last Tuesday gives them confidence.

We're in the primary campaign and things are often different.

One of the arguments that Senator Sanders made about Secretary Clinton four years ago Senator Sanders making about the Biden campaign now Hillary Clinton made it about Barack Obama is when a Democratic candidate is winning all these states in the South.

South Carolina is not gonna be a battleground state in the general election.

We don't expect Alabama or Mississippi or Arkansas to be battlegrounds.

Those will be Trump's states in the general election.

But But to the Biden campaign's point, let's just take case in point.

Sanders wanted narrowly last time when he did.

So when Bernie Sanders won this state four years ago, one of the things we probably didn't spend enough attention on is understanding the weakness.

Hillary Clinton won Macomb County, but just barely.

It was a big warning flashing sign that Hillary Clinton had problems with blue collar workers in the industrial Midwest.

Trump became president by flipping by flipping Michigan number one just 10,000 votes.

Michigan flipped Wisconsin 22,000 just shy of 23,000 votes and flipped Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes.

So what Joe Biden wants to argue is I was born in Scranton.

Hillary Clinton won that, but just barely.

And Wisconsin is on the will get to Wisconsin later in the campaign.

So if you look at 2020 what Joe Biden wants to say is, I'm competitive.

I proved I'm competitive and these air still to come as we go forward.

It's a perfectly rational argument to make, especially if you look at the suburbs.

One of the things that's been really interesting as we look Texas was a surprise last week.

Let me pop this out here and show you Texas was a surprise last week, right right here in the Dallas area, one of those congressional seats that flipped a Republican health seat in 2016 that became a Democrat health seat in 2018.

Just outside of Oklahoma City was a Republican health seat became a Democratic seat in 2018.

Joe Biden is winning in almost all of those districts.

California would be the one exception where you see Senator Sanders doing some of that.

But in places that flipped from red to blue helped make Nancy Pelosi speaker.

They are in the suburbs there, in the suburbs like northern Virginia.

This was a Republican House seat a few years ago.

It's a Democratic seat now, so Joe Biden's campaign can make the case that in the suburbs African American turnout, they're proving that they have a coalition that shapes up well for a general election.

It does not make the case that it's a guarantee, but against Senator Sanders, especially if Sanders argues on the blue collar guy If you look at the state of Michigan tonight, Biden has those bragging rights.

Doesn't give his campaign some steam when you look at the cities and the suburbs and the blue collar areas.

Take a look and let's do a delegate track right now as we take a look at the delegate so far tonight, let's start off with Michigan.

Take a look at what we've been able to allocate Already.

34 delegates for Joe Biden, 19 delegates in Michigan for Bernie Sanders.

What you see there is a 15 net delegate lead so far out of Michigan for Joe Biden.

We still have 72 delegates toe allocate out of Michigan.

In Missouri, we've allocated more than half the delegates.

There you have a 14 delegate lead for Joe Biden again as a net lead, so he's just adding and adding to his already existing lead.

We still have 30 delegates to assign in desert.

So delegates to date right now, given all the contest that have happened so far, all the contest.

You need 1991 delegates to win the nomination.

Joe Biden has more than 100 delegate lead.

Now that is 120 224 delegate lead that that Joe Biden has over Bernie Sanders.

He's building such a substantial delegate lead this evening that as it continues along this pace, it is going to be extraordinarily difficult for Bernie Sanders to catch up in the delegate race.

It looks like it's going to be incredibly difficult based on the lead that Biden has right now, with the all important delegate count for Bernie Sanders to come back and the primaries in a week or more.

States are four states that Bernie Sanders did not win in 2016.

And while I do that, let me just also say that, um, the Sanders campaign is obviously could have ah, hard decision to make.

I don't think they're gonna drop out anytime in the immediate future.

And certainly, it's certainly there's ah debate on Sunday, uh, then and I think that it will be something that the Sanders team wants to do is have the head to head debate.

Tulsi Gabbert still running but has not met the threshold for the debate.

And I think Sanders is potentially a stronger debater on, and I think that they will make a least one last attempt to try to convince Democratic voters that he would be a stronger nominee against Donald Trump.

Because to be completely frank, I'm getting real 2004 vibes tonight, which is?

Democrats want to defeat an incumbent Republican so badly.

I mean that they decide which one is electable, and they decide which one is electable and they decide.

Okay, it's John Kerry, or, in this case, it's Joe Biden.

There's a huge coalescing around that person.

They want to end the primary process as soon as possible on and then basically they coronate this person.

Now what did we learn in the last few weeks?

Bush advisor, told me that actually, they feared Howard Dean more because Howard Dean, even though he was less predictable, there was a starker difference between Howard Dean and George W.

And he was drawing much bigger crowds than John Kerry was able to on Howard Dean.

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2016年喬-拜登與希拉里-克林頓的勝利有何不同？ (How Joe Biden's wins differ from Hillary Clinton's in 2016)

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