we used to go there

經常會去那裡

and play with our friends.

跟朋友一起玩耍

We used to have a lot of fun there.

度過許多歡樂時光

Then the river came and washed everything away.

後來河水來襲，將一切沖刷殆盡

Over the last century, floods have become the most common and deadly natural disaster on the planet.

在過去一個世紀 水患成為全球最常見的致命性天災

The Ghagra River takes everything.

加格拉河奪走了一切

Our village had no warning.

我們沒有收到任何預警

It would help if we were notified

就無法做任何防備

but we get nothing.

一切猝不及防

Many countries currently lack effective early warning systems and alerts.

許多國家/地區缺乏有效的預警系統和警報機制

20 percent of flood fatalities occur in India.

在全球因水患致死的人數中，印度就佔了 20%

WHEN RIVERS RISE

當河水暴漲

[radio announcer in progress] --see some of the highest rainfalls

[電台播報] --季風季節的降雨量一向是全年之冠

during the monsoon season.

[電台播報] --季風季節的降雨量一向是全年之冠

But this year, it has been exceptional.

但今年尤其驚人

- One of the most important variables during a crisis

- 災害期間有一項變數極為關鍵

is reliable information.

就是可靠的資訊

There's so much work that's already been done,

無論是各國政府、聯合國 還是非政府組織

by governments, by the UN and NGOs,

在這方面都做出了許多努力

and we're trying to learn from that work, build on that,

我們仍不斷在研究、發展

and assist them with their goals.

協助這些機關達成他們的目標

In India, where we're running our first pilot program,

印度是我們進行第一項試行計劃的地點

the government has thousands of people who are measuring the water level

當地政府聘請了數千人 測量印度境內河川每小時的水位

in rivers across India,

當地政府聘請了數千人 測量印度境內河川每小時的水位

with what is effectively very long measuring sticks,

他們使用的工具稱為「河水標尺」

which are called stream gauges,

這是一種相當長的測量棒 能夠有效測量水位

every hour.

這是一種相當長的測量棒 能夠有效測量水位

Which allows them to know whether the river

以此判斷河川是否會暴漲而引發洪水

will overflow and flood.

以此判斷河川是否會暴漲而引發洪水

But it doesn't yet allow them to understand

不過仍無法藉此推測

exactly what areas are going to be affected.

哪些社區、村落會受到洪水影響

What neighborhoods, or even what villages.

哪些社區、村落會受到洪水影響

We received a warning from the head of the village

我們上午才收到警報

in the morning, just a few hours before the flood hit.

幾個小時後就遭受洪水侵襲

I wish I had known earlier.

真希望我能夠更早一些知道

- The response time is most crucial thing.

- 應變時間至關重要

Reducing the response time always plays a very important and vital role

在整個災害管理架構中 應變時間是關鍵

in the whole disaster management framework.

在整個災害管理架構中 應變時間是關鍵

Advancement in technology would help us better

科技有助於即時發佈災害警報

in spreading this message faster.

科技有助於即時發佈災害警報

- Flood forecasting was a very exploratory project.

- 洪水預報是一項探索性專案

The big technical question was,

最關鍵的問題是

can we have enough information

該如何收集充分的資訊來做出準確的預測

to try to do forecasting that would be accurate enough

該如何收集充分的資訊來做出準確的預測

to make a difference.

進一步改善世界

Starting with the basic needs for getting information about what's going on,

從基本的資訊著手：發生了什麼事？

where is it happening,

發生的地點？

what should I be doing?

該採取哪些行動？

- To be able to provide a forecast in real time,

- 我們與當地政府的合作

we rely on the government we're working with.

以即時提供預測結果

We complement their effort

我們提供精準的參考資料

by adding accurate modeling to that process.

讓政府既有程序更完善

We start by collecting thousands of satellite images

首先，我們收集了數千張衛星圖像

to build a digital model of the terrain.

據此建立數位地形模型

Based on these maps,

再利用這些地形圖

we generate hundreds of thousands of simulations

產生數十萬種河川流動模擬情境

of how the river could possibly behave.

產生數十萬種河川流動模擬情境

We receive the measurements from the government,

我們將政府提供的測量數據 與這些模擬情境資料交叉分析

and cross those measurements with our simulations.

我們將政府提供的測量數據 與這些模擬情境資料交叉分析

We can then send those forecasts to individuals

將得出的預測結果

using Search, Maps, and Android notifications.

透過 Google 搜尋、地圖和 Android 通知傳送給大眾

This is an example of an alert that we can produce.

這是我們針對佩達納產生的範例警報

This alert is for Pedana.

這是我們針對佩達納產生的範例警報

This alert is actually--has over 90 percent accuracy.

預測準確度超過 90%

The lead time is incredibly important.

前置時間對於災害防治至關重要

- Yeah. - Even more than the specifics.

- 沒錯 - 甚至比應變措施還重要

- Any information we can give, they will use.

- 任何資訊都有其實用性

- Want to show them the alert?

- 要讓他們看看警報嗎？

Talking to people who've directly experienced severe floods,

與親身經歷過嚴重水患的災民進行訪談

and understanding what they really need, is incredibly important

並瞭解他們真正的需求 這一點相當重要

for us to know how we can really help.

這樣我們才知道如何提供協助

This is an opportunity to collaborate on a global scale.

這是全球攜手合作的絕佳機會

We are in a very exciting time,

我們非常期待

to use technology to try to make a difference.

致力運用科技改變現狀

I can't imagine a greater privilege

能夠從事我鍾愛的工作

than to do work we love, which is develop technology,

開發出能改善世界的技術

and do it in a way that could actually

開發出能改善世界的技術

help people directly in a very profound way.

這是我莫大的榮幸

Our hope for the future is to give people

我們的願景是在洪水侵襲前幾日 就能向民眾發出預警

a few more days of warning before a flood occurs.

我們的願景是在洪水侵襲前幾日 就能向民眾發出預警

And to use AI to scale this, and provide these forecasts

運用 AI 技術擴大應用範圍 讓全世界都能取得所需預測資訊

anywhere in the world, wherever people need them.

運用 AI 技術擴大應用範圍 讓全世界都能取得所需預測資訊

The Crisis Response and Research team is exploring ways to use AI to provide earlier warnings

災害應變及研究小組正設法利用 AI 技術 針對火災、餘震等其他天災提供預警

for other natural disasters including fires and earthquake aftershocks.

災害應變及研究小組正設法利用 AI 技術 針對火災、餘震等其他天災提供預警