Name: 冠狀病毒--大流行？(一個醫生的預測) (Coronavirus - Pandemic ? (A Doctor's PREDICTION))
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:27:50.000Z
Duration: 11 min 38 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。學這些英文用法：武漢肺炎,新型冠狀病毒,新冠肺炎,COVID-19

I mean, I don't want a panic, but it could become a global pandemic.

Just how much will this novel crooner virus spread going forward?

The official answer is only time will tell.

But in this video, I'm going to give you my prediction about what is gonna happen with the Corona virus or Cove in 19 as it's now being called.

As of right now, there are only 14 confirmed cases in the United States, but unfortunately, it looks like there's gonna be a wave of infection coming in the US in other countries as well.

And I'm not the only doctor who thinks this is the case.

Nancy Massoni, a director of the CDC, is National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases expects it to take a foothold in the U.

At some point, we're likely to see community spread in the U.

This will trigger a change in our response strategy, she says.

And what about Dr Tom Frieden, the former director of the CDC, who just the other day I wrote an article who also thinks sets spread is likely.

Just look at this alarming study from JAMA, the Journal of American Medical Association, on how fiercely it's spread in the Chinese hospital.

It quickly spread to health care workers and other patients in the hospital, specifically of the 130 patients who were in this Chinese hospital with Corona virus pneumonia.

57 of them caught the infection while already in the hospital.

For other reasons and keep in mind, these numbers are being underreported.

China is being accused of censoring critical data about the Corona virus, which the World Health Organization now calls a grave threat to the world.

According to scientists writing for The Lancet medical journal.

Chinese authorities had preliminary information on the virus for more than two weeks before it was officially released.

One citizen journalist documenting the outbreak in Wuhan that's the city at the center of the outbreak, has reportedly been arrested.

Wow, so you know the numbers in China are really higher than what's being reported.

The numbers are also underreported because it's actually hard to test everyone due to limited resource is like testing kids, et cetera.

They even started making the diagnosis based on symptoms and CAT scan results.

But based on the numbers that we already do have, let's take a look.

So this is the Johns Hopkins Corona Virus tracker.

These are the numbers as of the making of this video.

So as of right now, they're 60,363 total confirmed cases in the world, the vast majority mainland China 14 or in the United States, the leading country besides China, Singapore with 50 year cases, the total number of deaths globally 1370.

So this data is based on numbers coming from the World Health Organization to CDC and others as well.

This is the total number of deaths craft out.

So back in January 23rd you see the rise steadily.

This is an upward trend here and shows over 1000 as a February 12th.

Then you have the number of daily deaths in this graph, and you could see that the number of daily deaths keeps increasing, and it took a big jump on February 12th so based on the numbers in the study that I just showed you.

In other studies like this one, it's looking like there's going to be a wave of second hand spread of the virus, meaning it's likely only a matter of time before the spread occurs from someone who hasn't been directly connected to Wuhan or directly connected to someone who has a confirmed case of Corona virus.

In fact, we already have evidence that it's spreading and people without even having symptoms.

Unfortunately, a certain percentage of the population will get hit with this wave of Corona virus.

Fortunately, most people who get infected will only have cold or flu like symptoms.

On Lee, a tiny fraction of infected patients will end up with pneumonia.

Only a small fraction of those pneumonia patients will end up with a R.

Check out my video on Air D s to get a better understanding of what it is in how we treat our D s patients.

The black represents air within the lungs, and this is normal.

This is a chest X ray of a patient with Corona virus pneumonia in the state of Washington.

The first case of Corona virus in the United States noticed this so pacification right here this white pacification could.

That's indicative of an infiltrate in the right clinical context.

You could call that a pneumonia, and because it's Corona virus, in this case, we call that Corona virus pneumonia.

So here's another case off Corona virus pneumonia.

This guy has extensive pulmonary capacities.

Extensive infiltrate in his left long hair extends all the way from his left upper lobe, lingua and left lower lobe.

And now let's take a look at what Air D s looks like on the chest X ray.

You could notice hardly any black meeting.

Pretty much all of his lungs are just completely, oh, pacified with dense infiltrate.

Now, these bilateral patchy capacities or bilateral fluffy, fluffy infiltrates, is one part of making the diagnosis of aired.

Yes, so now we'll take a look at a cat skin of someone with healthy lungs at the top, working our way down from the head towards the feet.

All the black represents air those squiggly lines of the blood vessels.

Now this is a cat scan of someone with bilateral fluffy infiltrates on cat scan.

But as we come down, you start to see this grayish appearance is over.

This ground glass capacity represents printable disease.

That's where the al viola are, partially or completely filling up with fluid and or inflammation.

So as we come down further and further, you'll notice Maur and Maur ground glass of pacification, and you could see air Bronco grams.

So this is the airways, and then when you get outside the airways into the airspace without viola I R.

That's where you have this ground glass of pacification and you see in both lungs, and it's patchy ground glass.

It eases a descriptive term, referring to an area of increased attenuation in the lung on a cat scan with preserved bronchial and vascular markings.

It's a non specific radiologic finding with lots of different ideologies, so it only helps him making a diagnosis.

In other words, it doesn't make any diagnosis just by itself.

So truly you never see pneumonia on chest X ray or cat scan.

You can only call it pneumonia if it fits the clinical context of the patient based on symptoms et cetera.

Now, not every Corona virus patient with a R.

D s is guaranteed to die, but they have a high likelihood of dying.

Based on the early numbers of all the patients with Corona virus, it appears that the mortality rate is around 2% or so.

But what can we do to make sure that this number is as low as possible?

In my opinion, there's four main factors.

One implement infection control measures.

So this includes isolating infected patients using personal protective equipment when necessary.

Early recognition of symptoms recognizing fever, runny nose, sore throat, cough, body aches, et cetera.

I realized right now the CDC has certain criteria for who would attest, which is a person with symptoms in someone who has recently been to Wuhan area or who's someone has been in close contact with a confirmed case, but at some point, we'll cross that threshold where we'll have to broaden the criteria of who we test because some people will get the Corona virus by a secondhand exposure.

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冠狀病毒--大流行？(一個醫生的預測) (Coronavirus - Pandemic ? (A Doctor's PREDICTION))

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pandemic

epidemic

severe