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  • Dr. Morens: "The current estimate is that the 1918 pandemic

  • killed at east 50 million people, some say as many as 100 million people,

  • but certainly at least 50 million people.

  • And that makes it the deadliest

  • single event in all recorded human history.

  • So it was a big deal, and if something like that

  • ever came back again, today, something just as deadly,

  • in today's population, which is much bigger,

  • as many as 400 million people could die."

  • The exact origins of the 1918 pandemic remain a mystery.

  • However, thanks to the work of scientists at NIAID and elsewhere,

  • we now know more about where the "Mother of All Pandemics" came from.

  • NIAID's Dr. David Morens explains.

  • Dr. Morens: "We know that in 1918, that virus was a brand-new virus

  • that had not been in people before. It was a bird virus; it came out of birds

  • and somehow, either directly or indirectly

  • got from birds into people.

  • But then, it didn't go away.

  • It kept mutating and evolving in people, and for decades,

  • it kept coming back in a different mutated form every year

  • until 1957, when it pulled another genetic trick

  • and was able to capture additional bird virus genes,

  • bird influenza virus genes, to make it so different that it resulted in another pandemic.

  • A similar thing happened in 1968, and a similar thing again in 2009.

  • So what that means is all these viruses that have been circulating

  • ever since 1918 are, in one way or another,

  • descendants of the 1918 virus."

  • Like in 1918, the next pandemic

  • could also come from an entirely new virus.

  • Dr. Morens: "The body parts of the viruses are out there in nature, in wild birds,

  • that can form together to form other viruses that are as deadly,

  • at least in theory, as deadly as the 1918 virus.

  • So this could happen again."

  • Currently, the best way to protect yourself from influenza

  • is to get a seasonal flu shot.

  • But even seasonal influenza evolves

  • and mutates from year to year, making the vaccine less effective.

  • What if we had a vaccine that could protect against

  • all kinds of influenza, both seasonal and pandemic?

  • In addition to his work on the 1918 virus,

  • NIAID's Dr. Jeffery Taubenberger

  • has researched potential universal vaccines.

  • Dr. Taubenberger: "And so the goal for this would be to develop a so-called

  • universal vaccine, and this could mean

  • different things to different people.

  • A more modest goal might be a vaccine that would give you protection, say,

  • for five or ten years against seasonal flu, so that you wouldn't

  • need the vaccine every year.

  • A broader goal would be a vaccine that could

  • prevent new pandemics from occurring.

  • Right now we can only react when a pandemic occurs,

  • and make a vaccine after it's already started circulating,

  • which is really too late.

  • So the goal would be, could you make a vaccine that could help

  • provide at least some protective immunity against

  • any kind of strain."

  • There are many different kinds of experimental universal flu vaccines,

  • which are designed to work in different ways.

  • Though some human trials have already begun,

  • even the most advanced experimental vaccines

  • are still years away from being publicly available.

  • Dr. Taubenberger: "I think that all these experiments will help

  • all of us, as a community, work to develop

  • new generations of vaccines.

  • But I feel confident that with

  • the amount of effort that's going on,

  • especially funded by the Institute,

  • that we will be able to make progress in this regard,

  • and make better influenza vaccines in the near future."

Dr. Morens: "The current estimate is that the 1918 pandemic

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