Name: 比特幣價格預測｜2021年後10萬美元｜2025年後100萬美元 (Bitcoin Price Prediction | $100,000 After 2021 | $1,000,000 After 2025)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:20:56.000Z
Duration: 13 min 25 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

That's 1 to 20 and up to $1 million after 2024.

In this video, Dr Safest and A Moon and Anonymous Plan B will explain this majestic Bitcoin model before we start smashed That, like button for you to pay algorithm.

I really want as many people as possible to see this video first.

Let's look at the price action of Bitcoin.

So they beat Quince trading slightly about $8300 which is I am very, very placed.

I wanted to see beat around $7500 But you may ask why? 00:01:0.340 --> 00:01:5.730  Because I'm buying more last Friday when big contract to $7700. 00:01:6.000 --> 00:01:7.770  This is when I decided to enter. 00:01:8.190 --> 00:01:9.620  So as I was the buzz. 00:01:9.620 --> 00:01:11.190  Think my fear to U.

It takes around 3 to 5 business days for your funds will appear in your account.

I was hoping during that time frame, Bitcoin would decrease, say with more.

My luck Bitcoin increased and my father's still not there.

Hopefully, it will drop under $8000 again and provides me with a better opportunity to buy.

I'm not trying to pay extra 60 a $100 just for the transfer fee.

Hindsight is always 2020 for the last few days, but going cool hell gone either way up or down.

Just not my luck anyway. 00:01:59.730 --> 00:02:5.650  Besides my unfortunate bionic opportunity, I am very, very excited to share this video with you. 00:02:6.200 --> 00:02:14.770  First, let's start with Dr Ramos explaining why golden beet Chinese money and another assets such as petting them is not.

I found it to be the best way of explaining why it is gold.

You know, some people think it is because it is scares, but that's not entirely accurate, because actually, you know there are other metals like platinum and palladium that are also pretty scarce, but they don't have a monetary role.

They haven't been used his money, and they've not acquired a monetary rolling that you don't look like they're likely to acquire monitored roll.

And in fact, people try to monetize platinum in Russia in the 18 twenties, and it failed.

Even though it's rare, and I think the reason why they're best way of understanding it is because it's not about the reality or the scar city.

It's the stock to flow or effectively. 00:02:54.230 --> 00:03:1.950  It's a racial off the existing stockpile off all the production that is existing on the market right now that can be sold. 00:03:1.940 --> 00:03:7.320  The ratio off that to the production that comes out off the minds every year. 00:03:7.510 --> 00:03:14.040  Gold is the prime money in history because it is the one commodity whose stockpiles was existing.

Stock parts are much larger than the new supply that is being made every year from gold.

That's ultimately what it comes down to, and that's because gold has been mined for thousands of years by people all over the world because it does not rust or decomposed or ruin in any way.

It just continues to accumulate them, so we continue to add up more and more gold.

And so, even as we could to need to get much better at digging for gold.

Every one particular year is just one year was production compared to thousands of years of production.

This year is also the most advanced of all the years, So generally it's not, you know, one out of 1000.

In other words, it's always around 1.5%. 00:03:59.830 --> 00:04:5.140  Every year, gold's supply grows at 1.5% roughly so the stock. 00:04:5.140 --> 00:04:7.820  The flow is roughly around 60 to 1. 00:04:7.980 --> 00:04:10.830  And that's really why gold was money then.

That's why platinum can't be money because platinum, even though it's rare, these stockpiles of platinum that we have accumulated have only been accumulated over a couple of centuries on dhe as couple of centuries in which platinum has had very little use in industry compared to gold's demand as money and for industry.

So therefore, the entire production of platinum that we have is pretty small, and if somebody were to go and declare platinum as currency and start using it as money and start putting value in it, if 10% off the mining and capital that goes into gold would switch towards prioritizing the mining off platinum.

Then you're going to get a massive increase in the supply of platinum in the price of platinum is going to come crashing down.

Bitcoin finds another way off, reaching a higher stock the flow than gold, and in a few years, Bitcoin will overtake gold and stock the flow. 00:04:59.690 --> 00:05:5.100  Right now, the Bitcoin supply growth rate is about 4% or 25 to 1 stopped the flow. 00:05:5.110 --> 00:05:10.530  But in a few years it'll drop or grow beyond golds and then eventually creatures infinity.

So I think this is ultimately what makes something a good money.

In other words, the size of the liquidity on the market is large enough that whatever happens in the new in the production of the new minds doesn't really affect the market much.

That's what makes a good monetary medium.

You know, gold was the best thing that we had, but with Bitcoin, it's going to be, I think, even better now.

It's time for Plan B, which is now Plan a Plan B has become a rising star in the Bitcoin community, you to his statistical work, he has performed on the stock to flow analysis of Bitcoin.

Before we start, I want you to get familiar with very important term that will be discussed and explained by Plan B.

I don't want to brag, but I have a bachelor in math and massively statistics, and I believe I know thinkers so above statistics, even though sometimes I make very silly calculation mistakes.

R Squared is a statistical measure of how close the data points fit into regression line in English.

Basically, it shows how well a model fits into the data R squared, just like probability ranges between zero and 10% indicates that the model explain not over the video built in the data set and one or 100% indicates that the model explains all David ability.

It also can be used to predict future data points in the data set.

For example, if R squared is 95% it means that the model is 95% confident that relative data points feel a cure in the future. 00:06:57.740 --> 00:07:3.480  Now let's go to plan B and see what he has to say about model and the bacon prices. 00:07:4.130 --> 00:07:5.960  I started with the numbers. 00:07:6.120 --> 00:07:14.150  Of course, Bitcoin is a different animal than the things I normally model, so there's no cash flow like a company for a fixed income instrument or a derivative.

In fact, the same problem is there for gold as well, because you could look at the cost off mining gold or Bitcoin.

Also after reading safety in a moose's book, The Big Gun Standard.

He has a whole chapter in their stock to flow and stop.

The flow is, of course, also known in the commodities world.

So I used that as, ah, that stopped the flow measure as a quantification off the scarcity and then use that as an import in evaluation model.

So maybe for the listeners who don't know stuck is the reserve, the amount of Bitcoin or the amount of gold that's above the ground that is just there, and flow is the yearly production, and then you just divide the two get going. 00:07:59.940 --> 00:08:3.500  You have 17 or almost 18 million Bitcoins right now. 00:08:3.510 --> 00:08:5.950  Devon, on a 50,000 per year are at it. 00:08:5.980 --> 00:08:11.160  That number is rapidly declining, by the way, But if you divide those two, you get a stock to flow.

And what I discovered was that the stock to flow number is correlated with the market value.

So, for example, the stock to flow of gold is 55 or something, and the market value is about $10 trillion.

If you put all those stuck the phone numbers of all the commodity's out there and put him on the line to get this straight line, it's actually a power law with a super high r squared super high.

Correlation is just amazing that there's actually two models out there.

So there's the cross asset model where it all started with gold and silver, and that's that, etcetera.

But there's also the time serious model where you if you plot the start to flow time, Siri's off Bitcoin off the lost 10 years against the market gap. 00:08:58.960 --> 00:09:6.050  You can also see the correlation there, a measure of the correlation, and it's also really high like 95%. 00:09:6.840 --> 00:09:7.690  Well, I know personally. 00:09:7.690 --> 00:09:10.030  Whenever I read it, I was like, This is it.

But I felt was happening but didn't know how to describe it, right?

And I think a lot of people in the community had this intuition that what you were describing in which you were actually applying mathematics to was happening.

But we just didn't know how to describe it.

And so here you come into it and you start describing it.

The people that are not familiar with our squared values describe what this is described, what it means whenever you model something and then the actuals compared to what the projections were.

Our square is a statistical measure or goodness of fit of a model.

It has a high value 100% and if there's no fit at all, it's zero. 00:09:56.500 --> 00:10:2.050  If you look at the numbers for the cross, asset took the floor model 99.5%. 00:10:2.190 --> 00:10:3.810  It's like almost a perfect fit. 00:10:3.820 --> 00:10:4.520  That's amazing. 00:10:4.520 --> 00:10:10.390  I have never, ever seen that before, and if you look at the 95% of the time, Siri's doctor floor model.

So it measures the amount of variants in the price.

How much of that is explained by the amount of variants any stock to flow?

And in fact, it's not the most important measure.

There are other measures, but it's a freaking to use measure, so that's why I use it.

So you come up this model and this model explains using mathematics what the price of Bitcoins should be.

And a lot of that has to do with the half ing function.

So could you please elaborate on what that is?

And also give us an idea of the estimated price levels, depending on the year that we end.

The having is a very important thing because every 200 10,000 blocks that's about four years.

The subsidy that miners get when they mind a block is 1/2 from an investor's point of view. 00:10:58.210 --> 00:11:4.690  The supply is half that doubles start to flow measure and increases the value as well. 00:11:4.690 --> 00:11:6.850  So especially those stepwise mom. 00:11:6.850 --> 00:11:11.890  Linear function is very, very interesting because market are anticipating on it.

There's a lot of debate and narratives Always around, Paul thinks.

But if you look at the numbers, so we're now at a stock to blow it going up 27 and that gives a value off about little under $10,000.

So we're about their little bit over right now.

But after the half ing, if the stock to float doubles, that's in May 2020.

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比特幣價格預測｜2021年後10萬美元｜2025年後100萬美元 (Bitcoin Price Prediction | $100,000 After 2021 | $1,000,000 After 2025)

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