me but probably with greater potential for certain elements of observation, but he learned

我，但可能具有更大的潛力 某些元素的觀察，但他學會了。

over time to think like Sherlock Holmes. At the beginning, he probably thought more like

隨著時間的推移，思考像福爾摩斯。一開始，他的想法可能更像

Watson because that’s more of our natural state. He’s able to attain what he does

沃森，因為這更像是我們的自然狀態。他能夠達到他所做的事情。

because he’s become an expert of sorts at observing.

因為他已經成為了一個觀察的專家。

He’s become an expert at person perception. What I mean by this is he has thousands and

他已經成為了一個人的感知專家。我的意思是，他有成千上萬的...

thousands of hours of practice, and that practice has been interwoven with feedback. So I look

數千小時的實踐，而這種實踐是與反饋交織在一起的。所以我看

at you and I tell you something about yourself.  And you say, “No, that’s actually wrong.

在你和我告訴你一些關於你自己的事情。 而你說："不，這其實是錯誤的。

That has nothing to do with me at all.” Or you say, “Wow. How did you know that?”

這跟我一點關係都沒有。"或者你說："哇，你怎麼知道的？"

So I’m learning which details matter, which details don’t matter, which observations

所以，我在學習哪些細節重要，哪些細節不重要，哪些觀察

are logical, which ones are false. And over time I build up that expertise that will allow

是符合邏輯的，哪些是錯誤的。隨著時間的推移，我建立的專業知識，將允許... ...

me to look at you and in one second say, “Hey, Watson, I think you’ve been in Afghanistan.”

我看著你，在一秒鐘內說， "嘿，華生，我想你已經在阿富汗。"

And it seems like it’s completely just out of the blue, oh, my God, how did he know that?

而且好像完全是突如其來，天啊，他怎麼會知道？

But then if you go back, you’ll see that this is not intuition in the sense of just

但是，如果你回去，你會發現，這不是直覺的意義上的只是。

“I knew it.” It’s intuition in the sense of expertise, in the sense of judgment that

"我就知道"。這是專業知識意義上的直覺，是判斷力意義上的直覺。

has been honed over years and years of practice. So, for Holmes, the entire thought process

已經在多年的實踐中得到了磨練。所以，對於福爾摩斯來說，整個思維過程。

is akin to a scientist who is doing a research experiment, so someone who is doing - who

是類似於一個正在做研究實驗的科學家，所以，一個正在做--誰

is following the scientific method. So for him the mind is like an attic, and what that

是遵循科學的方法。所以，對他來說，心靈就像一個閣樓，而那個

means is you can store only so much in it. The space is finite. And what you store and

意味著你只能在裡面存儲這麼多。空間是有限的。而你儲存的東西

how you store it is incredibly important as you try to figure out, how do I optimize my

當你想知道，我怎樣才能優化我的

mental resources? How do I then take the things I’ve stored and access them? How do I organize

精神資源？我又該如何把我儲存的東西拿出來存取？我如何組織

them so that there are connections between them so that I can use them and make them

它們之間有聯繫，這樣我就可以使用它們，並使它們成為

as part of kind of a broader whole so I can see the bigger picture and not just these

作為一種更廣泛的整體的一部分，所以我可以看到更大的畫面，而不僅僅是這些。

random components that I put there? So, what a researcher would do at the beginning

隨機成分，我放在那裡？那麼，一個研究者在一開始會做什麼呢？

of an experiment is to say, what is my question? And that’s exactly what Holmes does. He

實驗的目的是說，我的問題是什麼？而這正是福爾摩斯所做的。他...

says, what is my goal? What do I want to accomplish? Before he ever opens a case, before he ever

說，我的目標是什麼？我想完成什麼？在他開案之前 在他開案之前...

meets a client, he already wants to know what is it that I want to get from this meeting.

遇到客戶，他已經想知道我想從這次會議中得到什麼。

And so he comes into the meeting with a prepared mindset. His attic has already been primed,

所以他是帶著準備好的心態來參加會議的。他的閣樓已經做好了準備。

so to speak, to take in certain inputs and to not allow other inputs in. This is important

可以說，接受某些輸入而不允許其他輸入。這一點很重要

because attention is incredibly finite, and so we don’t have just endless resources,

因為注意力是非常有限的，所以我們並不是只有無窮的資源。

so we can’t pay attention to everything; we do need to be selective to what we pay

所以，我們不可能關注所有的事情，我們確實需要有選擇地關注我們所付出的

attention to. Now the scientist after kind of setting this

的注意。現在的科學家在種定這個

hypothesis would say, okay, how would I go about testing it? That’s, once again, exactly

假設會說，好吧，我怎麼去測試它？這是，再次，正是

what Sherlock Holmes does.  After he sets his goals, he goes about observing and collecting

夏洛克-福爾摩斯所做的事情。 在他設定了目標之後，他就去觀察和收集。

data, and asking, okay, how do I answer this question? And what is it about this conversation,

數據，並問，好吧，我怎麼回答這個問題？以及這個對話的內容是什麼。

about this person, about this situation, whatever it happens to be, that will enable me to gather

關於這個人，關於這種情況，不管它發生了什麼，這將使我能夠收集...

the data that I will then be able to use to see whether my hypothesis holds up?

的數據，然後我就可以用這些數據來判斷我的假設是否成立？

And then he does this thing that every great scientist does and I think mediocre scientists

然後他做了一件事，每一個偉大的科學家都會做，我想平庸的科學家也會做

probably do not, which is take a step back and learn to look at the data, recombine it,

可能不會，這就是退一步，學會看數據，重新組合。

look at different possibilities, be imaginative with that data to see, is there anything that

看看不同的可能性，用這些數據去想象，看看，有沒有什麼東西可以讓我們的生活變得更美好。

I didn’t think of beforehand? Is my mind still open? Do I still know what’s going

我事先沒有想到？我的思路還開闊嗎？我還知道什麼是

on? Does this data somehow make me think of new ideas, think of new approaches, think

上？這些數據是否在某種程度上讓我想到了新的想法，想到了新的方法，想到了

of things that I hadn’t thought of in the past? And so he has this incredible space

的東西，我過去沒有想到的？所以他有這個不可思議的空間

for imagination, and I think that that is an essential part of the scientific method

想象力，我認為這是科學方法的一個重要組成部分

as well. You know, scientists from Feynman to Einstein have really valued the importance

也是。你知道，從費曼到愛因斯坦的科學家們都非常重視... ...

of imagination and have spoken a lot about it. So the reason I’m stressing this is

的想象力，並且已經講了很多。所以，我之所以強調這一點，是因為

because people tend to forget it when they think about the scientific method.

因為人們在思考科學方法的時候往往會忘記它。

Now finally, what you do after that is you go back to the data and you look at the - kind

最後，你要做的是回到數據中去，看一看...

of what you’ve done with it and you see what makes sense based on my observations.

的，你用它做了什麼，你看什麼是有意義的，根據我的觀察。

Have I framed the question properly? Have I accomplished my goal or do I need to start

我的問題框架是否正確？我是否已經完成了我的目標，或者我需要開始

over? Because it’s an iterative process. You may need to go through this method over

結束了嗎？因為這是一個反覆的過程。你可能需要通過這個方法，在

and over and over until you finally come to a conclusion. And that's kind of the final

一遍又一遍，直到你最終得出結論。那是一種最後的。

step of Holmes’ approach. He always keeps his education going. He realizes that the

福爾摩斯方法的步驟。他始終堅持自己的教育。他意識到

scientific method doesn’t have an end.  You’re always going to have to go back the

科學方法是沒有盡頭的 你總是要回去的

beginning. It’s going to be a constant feedback loop.

開始。這將是一個持續的反饋循環。