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  • This stock is gonna hit the 2 trillion valuation.

  • They were trading at that magical $2 trillion level.

  • They've reached the 2 trillion.

  • 2.1 trillion.

  • A $2 trillion valuation.

  • $2 trillion IPO.

  • If you've come across the Aramco IPO story,

  • you're going to of heard the figure 2 trillion bandied about.

  • You gotta admit.

  • It's a huge number. That headline number

  • is stunning.

  • MBS has long wanted this goal,

  • the West had told him it was unreasonable,

  • and now he's achieved it.

  • A billion dollar startup is called a unicorn,

  • so what do you call a company

  • that's worth two thousand times that?

  • It'd probably help at this point to quantify

  • how much 2 trillion really is.

  • 2 trillion dollars is more than most countries' annual GDP.

  • If Aramco were a country,

  • it would actually be in the top ten of global economies.

  • It's listing caused Saudi Arabia's market size to jump 370%

  • and clinch 7th position in the global rankings.

  • So how did Saudi's millennial prince achieve this gigantic valuation?

  • And how did Aramco get so big in the first place?

  • A vast, trackless desert.

  • Saudi Aramco actually started as an American company.

  • Roadless, almost unknown,

  • unmapped.

  • In 1933 a concession agreement was signed between

  • Saudi Arabia and the Standard Oil Company of California,

  • which is now Chevron,

  • to allow the Americans to start prospecting.

  • California-Arabian Standard Oil was born.

  • But it wasn't until 1938,

  • in Dhahran,

  • that they actually found enough oil to drill in commercial quantities

  • at Dammam Well No. 7,

  • which became known as "Prosperity Well."

  • In 1949 crude oil production had hit 500,000 barrels per day,

  • and the scale of the kingdom's potential riches

  • was becoming apparent.

  • Oil prices spiked at the peak of the Arab oil embargo in 1973.

  • With tensions growing between OPEC countries and the U.S.,

  • the Saudi government acquired 25% more of Aramco,

  • increasing its stake to 60%

  • making them the majority shareholder.

  • By 1980 it had completed its nationalization,

  • but the headquarters remained in Delaware.

  • It wasn't until ‘88 that operations were fully moved to the kingdom

  • and it changed its name, once again, to the Saudi Arabian Oil Company,

  • or Saudi Aramco.

  • The nationalization of Aramco

  • was very different to every other nationalization

  • that happened not only in the Middle East,

  • but also in Africa and Latin America.

  • That's Bloomberg's Chief Energy correspondent Javier Blas.

  • The company retained a lot of their employees.

  • The only thing that changed was the ownership.

  • But the way to run the company,

  • a very technocratic company where

  • politics were not welcome, remain.

  • In the late eighties,

  • under the leadership of its first Saudi president Ali Al-Naimi,

  • Saudi Aramco went from just pumping oil to doing it all.

  • It bought up refineries across North America and all through Asia

  • to control the processes involved in converting oil and gas into the finished product.

  • This has made it the most profitable company in the world.

  • While some aspects of the company were changing,

  • others remained the same.

  • Since the nationalization of Saudi Aramco

  • in the late '70s, early '80s,

  • the company was always separated

  • from the politics of the kingdom.

  • It was run by engineers.

  • The most precious thing was technical capability

  • and the government let Aramco run the company.

  • The rise of Prince Mohammad bin Salman changed all of that.

  • The Crown Prince, also known as MBS,

  • had a much more hands on approach when it came to Aramco.

  • Tell us again exactly who this prince is?

  • His nickname is "Mr. Everything,"

  • which is to say,

  • that he has basically been put in control of

  • massive swathes of Saudi Arabia.

  • Since Mohammed bin Salman

  • became the Deputy Crown Prince

  • and later the Crown Prince,

  • there has been a lot more influence

  • from the royal court and the royal family.

  • But it wasn't until 2016 when MBS announced hisVision 2030”

  • that his plans for Aramco,

  • Saudi's crown jewel,

  • really became apparent.

  • Of course we can't not mention

  • the planned IPO of Saudi Aramco.

  • It is a dramatic change by anyone's book.

  • Whether he succeeds or not is something

  • that we're all wait and see.

  • The reaction to Prince Mohammed's announcement

  • in 2016 of the IPO,

  • and the wider program of economic liberalization

  • that is known now as Vision 2030 was received

  • through the world with a lot of enthusiasm.

  • It was a move by Saudi Arabia to try to get away from oil,

  • diversify income, privatize the economy,

  • make things more flexible, increase employment,

  • et cetera, et cetera.

  • Taking Aramco public was at the heart of MBS's push to revamp Saudi's economy,

  • which needs billions of dollars to develop new industries

  • and fund ambitious mega projects.

  • The biggest problem from the very beginning

  • of the IPO was the valuation.

  • Prince Mohammed announced that the company

  • was valued at $2 trillion.

  • It's more than double the valuation

  • of some of the largest companies in America,

  • and very few international investors

  • believe that that number was right.

  • Saudi Arabia has said Saudi Aramco is worth more than $2 trillion,

  • but does the kingdom have to settle for less?

  • A person familiar with IPO talks

  • said they've placed the figure

  • at less than $1 trillion.

  • A person in the Saudi government, 500 billion.

  • Wood Mackenzie, 400 billion.

  • But it became very clear that the $2 trillion

  • was not gonna work with international investors,

  • so they decided to take a pause.

  • It's the crown jewel of the kingdom's economy,

  • the most profitable company in the world.

  • But now, thanks to a string of setbacks,

  • the most anticipated IPO ever

  • has seriously been scaled back.

  • A United Nations report says the Crown Prince

  • of Saudi Arabia should be investigated

  • over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

  • I think this ought to be a relationship altering event

  • for the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

  • for the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Did you order the murder of Jamal Khashoggi?

  • Did you order the murder of Jamal Khashoggi?

  • Absolutely not.

  • A twin attack at night with drones

  • on two major Saudi oil facilities,

  • one of them the largest in the world.

  • The attack cut the world's oil supply by about 5%.

  • No more coal. No more oil. Keep the carbon in the soil.

  • I would just point to the fact

  • that the energy sector as a percentage

  • of the S&P weighting is now 4.2%.

  • It was 16.5% 10 years ago.

  • This is a sector left for dead.

  • With a string of weighty news events stacking up,

  • the Saudi's and talks of the IPO went quiet,

  • leaving many to question if it had been put on hold permanently.

  • Then,

  • in 2019, around the summer,

  • Saudi Arabia got really concerned

  • that the price of oil was gonna drop

  • because of a slow down in the global economy,

  • the trade war between the U.S. and China,

  • and they decided to reaccelerate the plan

  • and to try to get the company again public

  • by the end of 2019.

  • They were able to do that, but they had to make some sacrifices.

  • The final pricing values the world's profitable

  • company at $1.7 trillion,

  • but somewhat below the kingdom's original target.

  • A listing in Riyadh only.

  • The international part of the IPO,

  • which has been long suggested,

  • isn't clear when that will happen.

  • Just not offering as many shares

  • as originally thought.

  • So just 1.5% of the company is being offered.

  • Saudi Aramco went ahead,

  • they did their IPO at $1.7 trillion,

  • and they really went and put pressure

  • on every wealthy family into the kingdom

  • to put money into the Aramco valuation.

  • They also pressured the banks,

  • the local banks,

  • to lend more money into the local economy

  • to allow citizens to buy shares with borrowed money.

  • And in the moment that the company went public

  • and the day that the trading started,

  • they also made sure that pension funds

  • and others in Saudi Arabia were buyers

  • on the first day.

  • So immediately we got to $1.8 trillion,

  • and then a couple of days later,

  • we hit $2 trillion.

  • Of course,

  • this is a historic day for a company,

  • this is the biggest listing in the history.

  • After pricing at the high end of the valuation,

  • the IPO raised $29.4 billion -

  • beating the record $25 billion raised by Alibaba in New York in 2014.

  • But what does the future look like for an oil titan in the age of going green?

  • Even Aramco who used to downplay peak oil,

  • cited it as a risk in its IPO prospectus.

  • The problem with peak oil and Saudi Aramco

  • is that come 2030,

  • there is not gonna be incremental demand for oil,

  • and that means that Saudi Aramco

  • cannot continue growing its production forever.

  • And that means lower revenue in the future,

  • potentially lower prices,

  • and that means also lower profits.

  • There is still a long way to go

  • before the Aramco IPO can be considered a success.

  • Its record-breaking listing cannot hide

  • the potential challenges that face the company

  • further down the line.

  • It remains to be seen if this oil titan

  • can truly reinvent the country's economy

  • and fund MBS's ambitious plans for the kingdom.

This stock is gonna hit the 2 trillion valuation.

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石油如何助推世界最大公司的發展? (How Oil Fueled The World's Biggest Company)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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