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  • welcome to another medcram lecture we're going to talk about an update for

  • coronavirus as of 1:27 2020 we have in China four thousand four hundred and

  • twenty eight infected and 106 that have died now one of those that died recently

  • was Beijing's first reported death and this is a 50 year old gentleman who

  • visited Wuhan on January 8th and developed fever seven days later on the

  • 15th went to the hospital on the 21st and then died on the 27th so this kind

  • of gives you at least an example of one in terms of the natural history of what

  • we're talking about now over the past day or so there's been some

  • epidemiologists in China that have looked at this and they're trying to

  • parse exactly how well the containment or the quarantine of this area is and

  • they've come up with some pretty sober results they say that optimistically if

  • we were to able to get a 90% containment of the area they predict based on their

  • models that the peak infection would hit about 59 thousand people and that would

  • mean that would be about 1500 deaths now if the containment was worse than that

  • and there's been some news about that recently because the mayor of Wuhan said

  • that about 5 million people went out of the city after there was the virus and

  • so if you look at a worst-case scenario of only 50% containment of the area

  • based on the models that they've come up with is five million people being

  • infected and a death rate of about 100,000 people and in terms of the

  • publication of this I'm going to go ahead and put the links in the

  • description below so you'll have the links to all of this stuff that I'm

  • going to talk about today so things have kind of heated up we have Sri Lanka

  • having its first case this is a Chinese tourist that went to Sri Lanka and this

  • patients being hospitalized in the capital of Colombo we have the United

  • States ordering a level 3 alert saying no non-essential travel to China

  • we have a quarantine in China of about 50 million people and one of the areas

  • that's really going to be of high interest is this whole idea of whether

  • the virus can be contracted when the patient or the index case is

  • asymptomatic this claim was first made by the China's Health Minister but there

  • is growing concern because the United States and their Health Department

  • personnel have been unable to look at the data in China because they're not

  • being allowed to look at that data to see exactly how is it possible that

  • somebody who does not have symptoms is able to transmit the virus and so we're

  • not exactly able to back up that claim as of this moment better news in the

  • u.s. there's been no new confirmed cases overnight so we've got four or five

  • cases we got two in California one in Los Angeles County the other one in

  • Orange County we have the one in Washington State and that's an

  • interesting story in and of itself so in Washington State the index case

  • themselves is a gentleman who actually went to the market in Wuhan and

  • currently health investigators are looking at about 64 different people

  • that he might have had contact with and they're tracking them down and seeing

  • whether or not they have the virus so far the index case himself is doing fine

  • getting back to California as we mentioned there are cases in Orange

  • County and also in Los Angeles County what was just recently announced is that

  • Ontario International Airport is going to be the repatriation center for about

  • 240 Americans who are going to be repatriated back to the United States

  • out of China and that is a chartered flight and its first going to go to

  • Anchorage Alaska for refueling and it's at that point that they're going to have

  • their first health check and then it will be going on to Ontario

  • International Airport in Southern California where they will be as soon as

  • they get off the plane they're going to be screened to make sure that they're

  • not sick and to make sure that they don't have the

  • virus and there's more details on that article so that's something that's been

  • in the news just recently in the last few hours interesting news out of Canada

  • there is a case in Toronto which I know very well since I'm originally from

  • Toronto the patient came from Wuhan and is currently in a hospital there in

  • Toronto called Sunnybrook Health Care Sciences interestingly the husband is in

  • hospital but the patient's wife has also tested positive for the corona virus

  • however she's at home and she's doing quite fine without any symptoms and I

  • think this is an interesting illustration of how variable the

  • presentation can be of this virus in different individuals and we're assuming

  • here that they both picked it up at the market there in Wuhan China and

  • hopefully that the husband did not give it to the wife can that would be the

  • first case of a human to human transfer outside of China so far we have not had

  • any evidence at least in the United States or in fact anywhere else in the

  • world other than China where there has been a

  • human to human transmission of this virus so that's good news okay let's

  • talk about vaccines here Johnson & Johnson is getting into the fray and

  • trying to come up with a vaccine for this virus they're saying that it's

  • going to take anywhere between 8 to 12 months before human testing can take

  • place the NIH on the other hand is saying that they may have something

  • ready in about three months it'll be interesting to see where we will be at

  • that time a lot of epidemiologists are saying that the peak of this epidemic

  • may be reached in about three months time a side note here on Johnson &

  • Johnson they have a very powerful HIV medication which interestingly as you

  • may know HIV is an RNA and virus as well and they're wanting to see whether or

  • not the HIV medication is going to be effective against the corona virus and

  • that medication is Prescott so that'll be interesting to see how

  • that works now a common question that gets asked is exactly how does this

  • virus kill somebody why is it that people succumb to the virus and what

  • mechanism and in most of the cases it's respiratory failure and something called

  • a RDS so in the next video I'm going to talk about a RDS and exactly how is it

  • that we treat it what do we do for it and why is it that we need to have

  • updated ICU is to deal with a RDS and what's been the recent evidence in the

  • last couple of years for treating a RDS and how can we improve survival for some

  • of these viruses that's going to be in the next video thanks for joining us and

  • stay tuned for further updates

welcome to another medcram lecture we're going to talk about an update for

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