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  • Today, we're going to talk about why the coronavirus has had an effect on markets, and what it means for the global economy.

    今天,我們就來談談冠狀病毒為什麼會對市場產生影響,以及對全球經濟的意義。

  • Now, the coronavirus is the outbreak that's been happening primarily in China, but cases have been popping up all over the world at this point.

    現在,冠狀病毒的爆發主要是發生在中國,但目前世界各地都有病例出現。

  • Unfortunately, the cases and the death toll continues to rise.

    不幸的是,案件和死亡人數繼續上升。

  • Markets that have been affected have included both U.S. domestic equity, as well as international equity.

    受影響的市場既包括美國本土股票,也包括國際股票。

  • It's affected bond markets, commodities, currencies.

    它影響了債券市場、商品、貨幣。

  • This virus has basically... it's created fears in all of those different markets.

    這種病毒基本上... 它在所有這些不同的市場中製造了恐懼。

  • So, for example, government bond prices have gone up because a lot of people are putting money into those bonds because they think, "Hey, government bonds are safe."

    所以,舉例來說,政府債券價格上漲是因為很多人把錢投入到這些債券中,因為他們認為,"嘿,政府債券是安全的。"

  • "Things are looking risky."

    "事情看起來很危險。"

  • "Let's pile into that."

    "讓我們扎進那個。"

  • On the other hand, you have oil taking a hit on its price because people think, "Well, travel is being restricted."

    另一方面,你有石油採取對其價格的打擊 因為人們認為,"嗯,旅行被限制。"

  • "A lot of airlines and countries are restricting travel to China, and so that's going to bring down demand for fuel, which is going to bring down oil prices, and that has had an effect on energy bonds, which have taken a hit.

    "很多航空公司和國家都在限制去中國旅遊,所以這就會使燃油需求下降,從而使油價下降,這對能源債券產生了影響,能源債券受到了衝擊。

  • You have other markets that have taken hits, like currencies in countries that do a lot of business with China, um, copper prices.

    你還有其他市場受到了衝擊,比如和中國有很多生意往來的國家的貨幣,嗯,銅價。

  • Now people are saying perhaps steel prices will be affected, because you could see a slowdown in construction in China.

    現在人們都說也許鋼價會受到影響,因為你可能會看到中國的建築業放緩。

  • Basically, there is nothing that this virus hasn't affected so far.

    基本上,到目前為止,沒有什麼是這個病毒沒有影響到的。

  • And, I want to talk about how concerned do we need to be?

    還有,我想說說我們需要多關心?

  • Well, the short answer is, nobody really knows because we don't know how long and how big of an effect this virus is going to have.

    好吧,簡短的回答是,沒有人真的知道,因為我們不知道這種病毒會有多長時間和多大的影響。

  • Now, the most recent virus that people are comparing this one to was the SARS virus, which took place in China as well, um, in the early 2000s.

    現在,最近的病毒,人們正在比較這一個是SARS病毒,這發生在中國以及,嗯,在2000年初。

  • Um, there's a lot of reasons why though that that virus differs from today, and I think the primary reason is that China's economy is much larger than it was back then.

    嗯,雖然那個病毒和現在不同,有很多原因,我覺得最主要的原因是中國的經濟規模比當時大很多。

  • And China has the second largest economy in the world, and that is why people are so concerned about the global effects of the virus.

    而中國擁有全球第二大經濟體,所以人們才會如此關注病毒對全球的影響。

  • Because basically, when people are staying in, they're not going out to eat, they're not going shopping, a lot of US multinationals have shut down stores in China, like Starbucks and McDonald's.

    因為基本上,當人們都呆在家裡的時候,他們不會出去吃飯,也不會去購物,很多美國的跨國公司都在中國關了店,比如星巴克、麥當勞。

  • All of that is contracting their economy when people aren't spending money and doing things that stimulate it.

    當人們不花錢,不做刺激經濟的事情時,這些都是在收縮他們的經濟。

  • And the other aspect of that is that, yes, Chinese consumers buy a lot from external countries, but also a lot of countries have at least part of their supply chain manufactured in China.

    而另一個方面是,是的,中國消費者從外部國家購買了很多東西,但也有很多國家的供應鏈至少有一部分是在中國製造的。

  • So Apple, for example, has come out and said, "you know, this coronavirus is probably going to have an effect on our products, on our supply chain."

    所以蘋果公司,比如說,已經出來說,"你知道,這個冠狀病毒可能會對我們的產品,對我們的供應鏈產生影響。"

  • And so, that is kind of the reason why markets have taken a turn.

    所以,這也是市場出現轉折的一種原因。

  • Now, you'll notice, if you look at, for example, the US S&P 500, that things took a turn on Monday, and since then have come back up a little bit.

    現在,你會注意到,如果你看看,例如,美國標準普爾500指數,事情在週一出現了轉折,此後又回升了一點。

  • And I think that is a perfect example of this concept that nobody really knows what's going on or what the effect is going to be.

    我認為這是一個完美的例子,這個概念,沒有人真正知道發生了什麼,或者效果是什麼。

  • And it's important that we point that out because, you know, prices of things, assets are supposed to be valued based on their fundamentals.

    我們指出這一點是很重要的,因為,你知道,事物的價格,資產的價值應該是基於其基本面的。

  • But in reality, prices can shift on a whim just based on investors' own emotions, and so that's important to keep in mind.

    但在現實中,價格可能只是根據投資者自己的情緒而隨心所欲地轉變,所以這一點很重要,要牢牢記住。

  • Now, the potential for something, like a virus, if it were to turn into a pandemic, would constitute something called a black swan event potentially, which is basically just another way of saying a big event that you don't expect that has a negative consequence on the prices of assets.

    現在,潛在的東西,比如病毒,如果它變成大流行病,就會構成所謂的黑天鵝事件的可能性,這基本上只是另一種說法,一個你不期望的大事件,對資產的價格有負面影響。

  • And that is a theory that some people have as to why it's really hard to understand risk in markets.

    而這也是一些人的理論,為什麼真的很難理解市場的風險。

  • Because, for example, the financial crisis of 2008 is considered an exemplary black swan event because nobody really saw it coming, and the ability to price that kind of crisis into your portfolio is very difficult to do.

    因為,比如2008年的金融危機被認為是一個典範的黑天鵝事件,因為沒有人真正預見到它的到來,而將這種危機定價到你的投資組合中的能力是非常難做到的。

  • Here's where I want to give a little bit of positive news though.

    不過這裡我想給大家一點正面的消息。

  • On this chart, which comes from JPMorgan, we have four prior big illnesses and the effects on their markets.

    在這張圖上,來自摩根大通,我們有之前的四次大病以及對其市場的影響。

  • So, the red box refers to the, um, basically the time of the crisis, right?

    所以,紅框指的是,嗯,基本上是危機的時間,對嗎?

  • And then the blue box is one month post crisis, and the green box is three months post crisis.

    然後藍色盒子是危機後一個月,綠色盒子是危機後三個月。

  • And the measurement is the percentage change in each of these markets over time.

    而衡量的標準就是這些市場隨著時間的推移,每個市場的變化百分比。

  • So, this one refers to China, and we're using the MSCI indices.

    所以,這個是指中國,我們用的是MSCI指數。

  • So, as you can see from the MSCI indices in each of these regions, obviously, three of them are countries, one of them is a continent.

    所以,從這些地區的MSCI指數可以看出,很明顯,其中有三個是國家,一個是大陸。

  • But basically, during the outbreaks, markets fell.

    但基本上,在爆發期間,市場下跌。

  • One month and three month post outbreak, things recovered.

    爆發後一個月和三個月,情況有所恢復。

  • Will that happen with coronavirus?

    冠狀病毒會不會出現這種情況?

  • I don't know, and really, nobody knows.

    我不知道,真的,沒人知道。

  • But it's important to remember that these are real people, and they're not just numbers being affected by this virus.

    但重要的是要記住,這些都是真實的人,他們不只是被這種病毒影響的數字。

Today, we're going to talk about why the coronavirus has had an effect on markets, and what it means for the global economy.

今天,我們就來談談冠狀病毒為什麼會對市場產生影響,以及對全球經濟的意義。

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【新冠肺炎】COVID-19 是如何影響經濟?(How is coronavirus hitting markets? | Charts that Count)

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    Courtney Shih 發佈於 2020 年 02 月 12 日
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