U.S. EXPECT? >> YOU WERE AN IRANIAN EXPERT.

>> YOU WERE AN IRANIAN EXPERT. WHAT ARE YOUR TOPLINE ITEMS

WHAT ARE YOUR TOPLINE ITEMS YOU'RE TAKING AWAY FROM THIS?

YOU'RE TAKING AWAY FROM THIS? >> IN MY VIEW THE MOST SERIOUS

>> IN MY VIEW THE MOST SERIOUS INCLINATION OF THE ARSENAL

INCLINATION OF THE ARSENAL HIDDEN SOMETIMES OPEN CONFLICT

HIDDEN SOMETIMES OPEN CONFLICT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN.

BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN. >> DO YOU HAVE ANY SENSE OF WHY

>> DO YOU HAVE ANY SENSE OF WHY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION DID

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION DID THIS NOW?

THIS NOW? >> THEY SAY HE WAS INVOLVED IN

>> THEY SAY HE WAS INVOLVED IN ANTI-AMERICAN ABILITY.

ANTI-AMERICAN ABILITY. THAT WAS HIS PORTFOLIO.

THAT WAS HIS PORTFOLIO. THAT WAS HIS JOB FOR THE THE

THAT WAS HIS JOB FOR THE THE LAST 20 YEARS.

LAST 20 YEARS. SO, HE'S BEEN DOING THIS.

SO, HE'S BEEN DOING THIS. WHY IS IT THAT NOW HE HAS

WHY IS IT THAT NOW HE HAS SUDDENLY BECOME SO NEEDED.

SUDDENLY BECOME SO NEEDED. >> IS THERE A LOGIC TO PURSUING

>> IS THERE A LOGIC TO PURSUING THIS STRIKE RIGHT NOW

THIS STRIKE RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING WHAT'S GOING ON WITH

CONSIDERING WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE ECONOMY IN IRAN AND WHETHER

THE ECONOMY IN IRAN AND WHETHER THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO FIX THAT?

THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO FIX THAT? >> IT SEEMS TO BE THAT PUSHED

>> IT SEEMS TO BE THAT PUSHED THEM A LITTLE BIT MORE THE

THEM A LITTLE BIT MORE THE PEOPLE WILL RISE UP AGAINST THIS

PEOPLE WILL RISE UP AGAINST THIS REGIME.

REGIME. I DON'T BELIEVE THAT WILL WORK.

I DON'T BELIEVE THAT WILL WORK. MY SENSE IS THAT THE REGIME AT

MY SENSE IS THAT THE REGIME AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME WILL GET

LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME WILL GET KIND OF A STRENGTHENING.

KIND OF A STRENGTHENING. >> CAN YOU EXPAND A LITTLE BIT

>> CAN YOU EXPAND A LITTLE BIT ON WHERE THE PEOPLE STAND AS IT

ON WHERE THE PEOPLE STAND AS IT RELATES TO THE REGIME?

RELATES TO THE REGIME? >> FOR THE THE FIRST TIME WE'VE

>> FOR THE THE FIRST TIME WE'VE HAD IMPERIALEMPIRICAL DATA.

HAD IMPERIALEMPIRICAL DATA. PEOPLE ARE HAPPY WITH THE

PEOPLE ARE HAPPY WITH THE REGIME.

REGIME. LESS THAN 10% OF THE PEOPLE ARE

LESS THAN 10% OF THE PEOPLE ARE HAPPY WITH THE STATUS.

HAPPY WITH THE STATUS. SO, ISOLATED AND THE REGIME IS

SO, ISOLATED AND THE REGIME IS BY THE PEOPLE, BY THE GREAT,

BY THE PEOPLE, BY THE GREAT, GREAT MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE.

GREAT MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE. I THINK 10% ACTED.

I THINK 10% ACTED. IF YOU HAVE 10% OF THE

IF YOU HAVE 10% OF THE POPULATION AND YOU HAVE SOME

POPULATION AND YOU HAVE SOME MONEY AND YOU HAVE THE POWER OF

MONEY AND YOU HAVE THE POWER OF IDEOLOGY AND FAITH BEHIND IT,

IDEOLOGY AND FAITH BEHIND IT, YOU CAN STILL DO A LOT OF

YOU CAN STILL DO A LOT OF DAMAGE.

DAMAGE. THIS IS NOT A REGIME THAT IS

THIS IS NOT A REGIME THAT IS BEREFT OF OPTIONS.

BEREFT OF OPTIONS. THE FACT THAT HE'S ISOLATED, THE

THE FACT THAT HE'S ISOLATED, THE FACT THAT ECONOMIC CRISIS, THAT

FACT THAT ECONOMIC CRISIS, THAT HAS BEEN COMPOUNDED WITH THE

HAS BEEN COMPOUNDED WITH THE TENSION WITHIN THE REGION.

TENSION WITHIN THE REGION. THIS HAS COMBINED TO CREATE A

THIS HAS COMBINED TO CREATE A VERY, VERY BIG CHALLENGE.

VERY, VERY BIG CHALLENGE. >> ONE OF THE BIGGEST COMPLAINTS

>> ONE OF THE BIGGEST COMPLAINTS THAT THE IRANIAN PEOPLE ARE

THAT THE IRANIAN PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT WHEN A POLL SHOWS

TALKING ABOUT WHEN A POLL SHOWS UP AND LESS THAN 10% ARE

UP AND LESS THAN 10% ARE SATISFIED WITH THE CURRENT

SATISFIED WITH THE CURRENT REGIME.

REGIME. >> I THINK THEY'RE EDUCATED OF

>> I THINK THEY'RE EDUCATED OF SO MANY UNEMPLOYED.

SO MANY UNEMPLOYED. UNEMPLOYMENT IS ABOUT 20%.

UNEMPLOYMENT IS ABOUT 20%. INFLATION IS ABOUT 50%.

INFLATION IS ABOUT 50%. CORRUPTION IS ABSOLUTELY

CORRUPTION IS ABSOLUTELY ENDEMIC.

ENDEMIC. THIS IS A PLUNDERING.

THIS IS A PLUNDERING. >> SO, AS YOU MENTIONED, IRAN IS

>> SO, AS YOU MENTIONED, IRAN IS SPECIFICALLY ECONOMICALLY WEAK

SPECIFICALLY ECONOMICALLY WEAK BUT THEY'RE NOT ENTIRELY DEVOID

BUT THEY'RE NOT ENTIRELY DEVOID OF OPTIONS HERE.

OF OPTIONS HERE. SO, WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS THAT

SO, WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS THAT IRAN DOES HAVE IN ORDER TO

IRAN DOES HAVE IN ORDER TO RETALIATE?

RETALIATE? >> THEY WENT AFTER SAUDI ARABIA

>> THEY WENT AFTER SAUDI ARABIA AND DID ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF

AND DID ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF DAMAGE TO SAUDI ARABIA AND THE

DAMAGE TO SAUDI ARABIA AND THE OIL MARKET.

OIL MARKET. THEY CAN ATTACK THE UNITED ARAB

THEY CAN ATTACK THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES IF THEY WANT.

EMIRATES IF THEY WANT. THEY HAVE U.S. BASES IN OTHER

THEY HAVE U.S. BASES IN OTHER PLACES IN THE PERSIAN GULF.

PLACES IN THE PERSIAN GULF. THERE ARE A LOT OF SOLDIERS

THERE ARE A LOT OF SOLDIERS THERE.

THERE. MY SENSE IS THAT VERY CALCULATED

MY SENSE IS THAT VERY CALCULATED TO RESPOND IN A WAY THAT THEY

TO RESPOND IN A WAY THAT THEY WILL SAVE FACE, THAT HARMONY

WILL SAVE FACE, THAT HARMONY WILL CONSOLIDATE THE BASE

WILL CONSOLIDATE THE BASE BECAUSE THE BASE IS CLEARLY THE

BECAUSE THE BASE IS CLEARLY THE 10% DEMANDING REVENGE.

10% DEMANDING REVENGE. IN FINDING AN OPTION THAT KEEPS

IN FINDING AN OPTION THAT KEEPS THE BASE HAPPY BUT DOESN'T LEAD

THE BASE HAPPY BUT DOESN'T LEAD TO ESCALATION IS A SENSE OF

TO ESCALATION IS A SENSE OF CAUTION WITH THE IRANIAN PEOPLE

CAUTION WITH THE IRANIAN PEOPLE TO TRY TO AVOID IRAN BECOMING

TO TRY TO AVOID IRAN BECOMING THE NEXT IRAQ, IRAN BECOMING