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  • T-minus 10, nine, eight, seven,

  • six, five, four, three, two, one--

  • The space race isn't just global superpowers

  • duking it out for bragging rights

  • and technological supremacy anymore.

  • Private companies, lots of them,

  • are rushing to commercialize not just the final frontier,

  • but the act of getting there.

  • I am a sports guy, this is like March Madness to me.

  • It's one and done, I got one shot to get to the end

  • or else I'm either gonna fail, run out of money,

  • or be gobbled up by someone else.

  • And whoever figures out

  • how to make launch safe, affordable,

  • and convenient is going to take the next giant leap.

  • We choose to go to the moon in this decade

  • and do the other things,

  • not because they are easy, but because they are hard.

  • 60 years into the space race,

  • the way we leave Earth has changed remarkably.

  • Zero, all engine running.

  • Liftoff, we have a liftoff, 32 minutes past the hour.

  • Space seemed like a vast, black desert,

  • but now we're ready to make the desert bloom.

  • I'm talking about opening space up to business,

  • to private enterprise.

  • Opening space up to commerce

  • and experimentation and development.

  • Why?

  • To improve the quality of life on Earth.

  • 25 years after Ronald Reagan

  • signed the Commercial Space Launch act,

  • the desert has begun blooming.

  • I think if you're a young person in 1969

  • and you saw people walking on the moon,

  • and 50 years later, we still haven't gone back,

  • I think that's a little disappointing.

  • I think they took that, their hopes and dreams

  • of their youth, and are applying it to today's marketplace.

  • And I think they're having a fantastic success.

  • In the world of rocket launch,

  • there are two very distinct races going on.

  • The first are the large rocket companies

  • like SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, and Blue Origin.

  • Jeff Bezos has reportedly invested billions

  • already in Blue Origin and will invest billions more.

  • Liftoff.

  • SpaceX has also raised billions of dollars

  • and acquired very large contracts from NASA as well,

  • in order to fund both development and operations

  • of its vehicles.

  • Liftoff of the SpaceX Falcon-9 rocket.

  • But they aren't the only players in the game.

  • There's a heated race picking up

  • between small and medium launch companies.

  • There's a subset of the community

  • not named SpaceX, not named Blue Origin,

  • trying to figure out, okay, how we get there fast?

  • Companies like Rocket Lab,

  • Relativity, Firefly, and Virgin Orbit.

  • Right now, there are more than 100 small launch companies

  • competing not just to get to space,

  • but to see who can get there most reliably,

  • cheapest, and then repeat it over and over and over again.

  • And ideally, end up with their business in the black.

  • Because in time, new industries rely

  • on these launch companies getting payloads into orbit.

  • And any missteps can spell disaster.

  • Not just for a rocket, but an entire company.

  • There is a $200+ billion commercial space industry

  • right now today.

  • There are a couple of huge markets

  • that have been very profitable.

  • The most profitable is the satellite industry.

  • In 2018, the global space economy was estimated

  • to be around $360 billion.

  • $277 billion of that is the satellite industry,

  • which has actually grown over $100 billion

  • over the past decade.

  • And for those satellites to get to space,

  • they need to be launched on a rocket.

  • Global launches in 2018 increased by 46%

  • over the number of launches a decade ago.

  • In many respects, it's never been easier

  • to put a satellite into space,

  • in terms of the cost and the availability of rockets

  • to ride into orbit.

  • And a new era of smaller, cheaper satellite technology

  • is creating this boom.

  • Once a year,

  • out in a desert north Utah,

  • the Small Satellite or SmallSat Conference, comes to Logan.

  • It has all the trademark features of an industry trade show,

  • bright lanyards, tons of swag,

  • but the deals happening here are carving out

  • what the future of the space economy will look like.

  • I've been coming to this conference for 20 years

  • and seen it grow from 300 people to over 3,000.

  • So, it is exciting to see that transition

  • as we move into the next phase.

  • Traditional satellites are often

  • powerful behemoths, the size of school buses,

  • costing hundreds of millions,

  • if not billions of dollars to build.

  • Today, the proliferation of smallsats,

  • CubeSats, even nanosats,

  • can cost as little as $10,000,

  • and can be built with similar hardware

  • that goes into your cell phone.

  • They range from the size of a Rubik's Cube

  • up to about the size of a dorm room refrigerator.

  • And so that's a big difference.

  • And so, some of these launch ventures

  • want to launch a few dorm-size refrigerators,

  • and others want to launch dozens of CubeSats.

  • And so, they're trying to divide the market that way.

  • Those satellites are providing imaging of the Earth,

  • they're potentially providing telecommunications services,

  • and they're attracting quite a lot of investment

  • in 10s, hundreds of millions of dollars,

  • even billions of dollars.

  • The Earth's insatiable need for communications

  • and internet is really what's driving

  • this huge number of satellites that are going into orbit

  • in the next five to seven years.

  • There's gonna be thousands, if not 10s of thousands

  • of new satellites in orbit in the next five to seven years.

  • The question is, are they able to actually provide

  • business services that will be successful?

  • The idea is that entirely new

  • business models as well as revenue streams

  • will be propped up by the data these smallsats collect.

  • The imaging and data collected from these smallsats

  • will be used by everyone,

  • from hedge funds to telecom giants to the US government.

  • Just think of how much the photos you can get

  • with your Android or iPhone have improved

  • from the first generation to the current generation.

  • Similar things happening in smallsats.

  • Market research says smallsat manufacturing

  • will nearly double by 2020,

  • with nearly 8,000 new smallsats in space by 2026.

  • The issue is always, small satellites have

  • a lot of capability, but there's not a good,

  • affordable way to get them into orbit.

  • And that's where the small launch companies

  • see a promising business.

  • The fact that a small launch vehicle

  • is much cheaper in total than a large launch vehicle

  • on the order of five or $10 million,

  • as opposed to $50 to $100 million,

  • and there are more customers.

  • Say you have a smallsat

  • that you want to launch into orbit.

  • Think of the big companies like SpaceX as a bus,

  • and the small and medium launch companies

  • like Rocket Lab as a taxi.

  • With large launches, you're at the back of the bus,

  • after the needs of what's called the primary,

  • which is the main payload on the rocket,

  • like a big government satellite.

  • Your smallsat is just piggybacking off that primary

  • since they bought the majority of the rocket.

  • With small launchers like Rocket Lab,

  • you and your smallsat can dictate

  • more of your terms on when and how you'll fly.

  • And you'll pay for the whole ride.

  • So booking a taxi for a smallsat

  • gives you more flexibility about when

  • and exactly where you want to go into orbit.

  • But it's more expensive.

  • Sometimes a ride share on a big rocket

  • and the chance to save on your launch expense

  • is more suitable depending on the satellite,

  • its mission, and the budget.

  • Far more important is the orbital inclination

  • or the angle of the satellite's orbit

  • relative to the equator.

  • It's much easier to move a satellite

  • into a higher or lower orbit than to change its inclination.

  • And that's why all launch customers

  • have to decide how their mission priorities

  • and budget can align when choosing how to get to space.

  • It's getting to the point that hitching a ride

  • on the really big rockets,

  • it works for some people,

  • it doesn't work for all business cases.

  • And so you've got smallsat ventures that say,

  • we want our own rides.

  • Those customers will determine

  • which of these small rocket companies succeeds

  • and which of the companies will fail.

  • This is not the internet,

  • where you build up a huge userbase

  • and then you figure out how to monetize them later.

  • Launch doesn't work that way.

  • You've gotta built up a backlog of customers.

  • Out of the more than 120 small

  • and medium-size launch companies out there,

  • just one is successfully launching rockets

  • for customers right now.

  • And that is Rocket lab.

  • People can actually walk on up to us and we'll fly them.

  • That's a great competitive advantage to have over,

  • you know, folks that are still developing a vehicle.

  • Peter Beck's Rocket Lab has raised

  • over $280 million from outsider investors,

  • with a valuation of more than one billion dollars,

  • and is currently flying a rocket every 30 days.

  • It looked what the hardest thing to do

  • was to go from zero to first successful orbital flight.

  • But really, going from first successful orbital flight

  • through to producing one every month

  • has been an equal amount of stress and energy

  • and complexity and toughness.

  • We obviously, we've completed our test flights,

  • and moved into full commercial operations

  • with the first flight of its business time.

  • And then straight on the heels of that,

  • we flew our NASA mission, and now we're, you know,

  • we're building and launching one vehicle

  • every sort of 30 days, every month.

  • And while other rocket companies

  • are looking to build their customer base,

  • Rocket Lab can't meet the rising demand for launches.

  • Our biggest issue is we can't broaden out profits.

  • That is our challenge.

  • We've built four and a half acres of new factories

  • and, you know, we're pushing in every direction we can

  • to build more capacity.

  • We fear that there aren't, you know,

  • we are the only dedicated solution available

  • on the marketplace right now.

  • You know, at an affordable price.

  • And so, what we see, a tremendous amount of demand.

  • So the demand is there, that's not the issue.

  • The issue is figuring out how to provide reliability,

  • scale, and cadence, while keeping prices as low as possible.

  • And each company has its own approach.

  • Every company has a unique way to building their rocket.

  • You know, whether they're using liquid,

  • solids, fuels, or a combination of the two.

  • Whether they're 3D printing their stages,

  • everyone has their unique approach to getting to a rocket.

  • However, the bottom line is good business in space

  • is exactly like good business on Earth.

  • A focus on customers, incremental successes,

  • and a vision that's supported by a real business model

  • is what works in space, just as it works on Earth.

  • One of the companies who believes

  • they have a successful business model is Firefly,

  • a medium-size launch company based out of Austin, Texas.

  • So I'm gonna run through this part of the procedure, 'kay?

  • Please set baming,

  • press logic to the next pressure increment,

  • and and we'll go in 10 PSI increments,

  • starting from ambient,

  • with a window of one.

  • And so, in the next six months,

  • Firefly's gonna launch this rocket.

  • We've been working on it for years now,

  • and we're gonna have that cathartic moment

  • where we launch the rocket,

  • everything's gonna go great.

  • But the outlook for Firefly

  • wasn't always so rosy.

  • This is a very difficult business.

  • There are a lot easier ways to make money in the world

  • than building a rocket company.

  • And you have a lot of setbacks,

  • you have technical setbacks,

  • you have financial setbacks.

  • But the most challenging one for me

  • has been the financial setbacks.

  • Firefly, like many other rocket companies,

  • is familiar with financial setbacks.

  • Vector, one of the more well-known launch startups,

  • ran into financial woes in the summer of 2019,

  • and saw their CEO depart amid uncertainty

  • about the company's future.

  • Back in 2017, Firefly, then known as Firefly Space Systems,

  • was saddled with financial instability

  • and filed for bankruptcy.

  • That's when Silicon Valley investment fund

  • Noosphere Ventures swooped in, bought their assets,

  • and rebranded the company to Firefly Aerospace.

  • I've learned a lot about the types of investors

  • that you want to have involved in this.

  • That learning has made us, I think,

  • very strong to push through this time.

  • As an investor and a sort of, like, you know,

  • one of the financial sort of people behind the company,

  • I try to encourage the company to think

  • beyond simply building a product,

  • but building a business.

  • Thank God we went bankrupt, frankly.

  • We have a better product now.

  • I have a better partner,

  • who lets me do what I'm good at doing

  • and he funds the project,

  • and I'm not off, you know,

  • humping the dot com guys' legs,

  • please give me another $100,000.

  • Now, after two years of R&D,

  • they're about to launch their first rocket.

  • Our plan is to have five launches next year.

  • All five of them will be

  • from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

  • But the next thing is to start adding technology

  • as an established company, and reusability,

  • and continuing to drive the costs down.

  • And we wanna do things in a different way.

  • Companies like Firefly

  • are hard-pressed to differentiate themselves

  • to stand out to investors and attract customers.

  • We're differentiated by our payload class.

  • Even among small launchers, we are a big small launcher,

  • so, our first rocket, Alpha,

  • is capable of carrying a thousand kilograms,

  • whereas our competitors are more

  • in the 500 kilograms and less area.

  • That big a payload means they can

  • service bigger clients such as NASA

  • and other federal agencies like the US Air Force.

  • We are on track to be able to provide NASA

  • lunar lander capabilities,

  • landing on the moon in the 2021 timeframe

  • when these would typically be launched in early 2021.

  • Firefly has restructured

  • and rebuilt its organization from the ground up,

  • but the question remains

  • if they can remain competitive when it comes to price.

  • We currently have a backlog of about $1.3 billion,

  • and a pipeline of over three and a half billion dollars

  • for our launch services alone.

  • If we fly according to our projected flight rates,

  • we expect to be cashflow positive by the end of 2020.

  • We're very conscious of cost,

  • that's one of the fundamental tenets of Noospace,

  • so Firefly will try to be competitive with anyone.

  • And we take all competition seriously.

  • That competition comes not only

  • from other small and medium launch companies,

  • but large ones as well.

  • Like SpaceX, who announced a smallsat solution

  • priced as low as one million dollars

  • for payloads up to 150 kilograms.

  • Which equates to approximately $15,000 per kilogram

  • to put something in orbit.

  • Coincidentally, that is exactly the same

  • as the Firefly economics for our Alpha vehicle.

  • Firefly believes they can deliver

  • something that Elon Musk's space giant cannot.

  • Unlike SpaceX, where those satellites

  • will be one of many, quite possibly one of 60,

  • our partners will have the same unit economics,

  • but will have a much more custom,

  • dedicated offering, it could be one of four

  • or one of five satellites in our faring.

  • Ride share's not the best opportunity

  • for a lot of small satellite customers.

  • In some ways, it's like hitchhiking.

  • You don't get to go exactly where you want to go

  • and you don't get to go on your own time schedule,

  • and that's important to a lot of customers.

  • In five years' time,

  • Firefly plans to not just be launching a rocket,

  • but a family of rockets.

  • We are interested in building

  • a multi-billion dollar business.

  • And in order to do that,

  • we know that we need to be cost competitive

  • with whatever the market throws at us,

  • not just simply what the competition's doing today.

  • And one of those competitors

  • is in Long Beach, California.

  • Virgin Orbit is an offshoot

  • of Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic space company.

  • And while they're a medium-size launch company,

  • just like Firefly and Rocket Lab,

  • their approach to getting a rocket into orbit

  • is a bit different.

  • Virgin Orbit is a dedicated small satellite launch vehicle

  • that is seeking to revolutionize the small satellite market.

  • We're utilizing our flying launchpad,

  • it's a Boeing 747 400 aircraft that we modified,

  • and it has an attached rocket

  • under the left wing of the plane.

  • It's a two-stage rocket, liquid oxygen kerosene rocket.

  • It has been flown before and has many successes.

  • Some of those other successes

  • are by their sister company, Virgin Galactic,

  • who has used this launchpad drop technology

  • for space tourism instead of small satellites,

  • which they believe is a difference maker in the industry.

  • Everything we built around the air launch system

  • is meant to mitigate against, you know, long-term delays.

  • For example, an air launch system can fly

  • in most weather conditions.

  • Because we're air launch, our cadence is very quick,

  • so it only takes four to six hours

  • to really fuel the rocket, you know,

  • attach it to the plane, and take off on a mission.

  • And having that flexibility,

  • having that quick cadence turnaround time

  • is critical to making sure that payloads

  • can get to orbit when they wanna get there.

  • That flexibility is what most

  • small launch companies hope will set them apart.

  • That responsive rapid launch to exactly

  • where you want to go,

  • that appeals to government users.

  • Government missions, scientific missions,

  • government military missions,

  • government intelligence missions

  • are all exploring the potential for lower total cost

  • small launch vehicles that can do exactly

  • what they need, when they need it.

  • And without even having a successful

  • full-duration test launch,

  • Virgin Orbit already has a backlog of customers.

  • Of course, we see the market expanding.

  • There's a lot of potential out there.

  • So we certainly could see ourselves

  • providing even more launch support than,

  • between 20 and 24 a year,

  • and of course that is a more mid to long-term goal.

  • Ignition.

  • Liftoff.

  • The future for companies like Rocket Lab,

  • Firefly, and Virgin Orbit looks promising.

  • But what about the hundreds

  • of smaller launch companies out there?

  • Will everybody survive?

  • Probably not.

  • There's not enough demand for 100 and some odd rockets

  • that are currently in development.

  • We absolutely believe that the window

  • to invest in launch has already closed.

  • There are some investors who made some

  • early good plays here.

  • That are going to work out very well,

  • but at this point,

  • the industry is well past that kind

  • of venture capital investment stage, in our opinion.

  • So, we see it shaking out to maybe 10 companies surviving.

  • The launch industry is unforgiving.

  • It's not very tolerant of failures.

  • On behalf of Arianespace,

  • I wish to express my deepest apologies

  • to our customers for the loss of their payload.

  • And telling them how sorry I am.

  • If you're having a bad run of luck,

  • you don't get a whole lot of patience out of the market

  • before people start using other rockets.

  • The technology of space activities is fascinating,

  • the technological challenges are extraordinary,

  • the competence that it requires to conduct operations

  • in space is intimidating.

  • The launch industry has an energized,

  • passionate collection of engineers,

  • venture investors, and designers

  • singularly focused on moving private enterprise

  • off the planet.

  • It's not just a new industry,

  • but a new way of seeing the world and working above it.

  • Once you have that cheap access to space,

  • now you have entirely new business models

  • that close that didn't before.

  • You have an entirely new cases for space as an environment.

  • You have an entire ecosystem of support services

  • that are developing to support those satellites

  • that are being launched in the next five to seven years.

  • And so, that has kind of unlimited amount

  • of economic development, economic growth possibility there.

  • You know, I like of liken where are right now

  • to the very first beginnings of the internet,

  • where were just starting to send emails.

  • That's really where we are in space,

  • we're just starting to send emails.

  • And if you think, if you go back, when, you know,

  • you just started sending emails and if I said to you

  • all of the stuff that was gonna occur

  • because of the internet, you wouldn't believe me, right?

  • You would think that's just crazy.

  • But that's where I think we're at right now,

  • is we've sent our first email,

  • and now space is opened up to innovators

  • to really try new things.

  • That's why perfecting the world of launch

  • is just the beginning.

  • Rockets aren't just providing a platform for spaceflight,

  • but a platform for innovation

  • as we figure out the business of how we get to space.

  • The next problem is where do we stay?

  • On the next episode of Giant Leap,

  • the International Space Station its nearing its retirement.

  • And NASA wants to open the door for commercial companies

  • to develop the technology and the business

  • to create our next space habitats.

T-minus 10, nine, eight, seven,

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空間。最後的商業前沿 (Space: The Final Business Frontier)

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    Isaac Lau 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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