In this episode, we're going to take a look at a few signs that indicate that the U.S. may be headed for a recession.

在這部影片中，我們將帶你看看幾個美國恐面臨經濟蕭條的徵兆。

And what that means for the U.S. economy and the stock market.

以及探討這些徵兆對於美國整體經濟和股票市場的代表含意為何。

A decade ago, things were looking pretty dire.

大約在十年前，美國經濟陷入了困境。

In October 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate peaked at 10%.

在 2009 年十月，美國失業率甚至高達了百分之十。

And the Federal Reserve was scrambling to incite calm in a very jittery stock market and U.S. economy.

因此，美國聯準會便出手干預股票市場，試圖讓整體經濟趨於穩定。

Just seven months earlier, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and broad-based S&P 500 all hit multi-year lows.

而早在七個月前，道瓊工業平均指數、那斯達克綜合指數以及標準普爾 500 指數都紛紛下跌。

But things have rebounded in a big way over the past decade.

不過近幾年來，美國經濟逐漸復甦。

We're currently in the midst of the longest expansionary period for the U.S. economy in recorded history.

現在可說是美國史上最長的經濟擴張時期。

The unemployment rate is at a nearly 50-year low, and the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 have all hit record highs since the Great Recession. 

失業率也是近五年來的新低，而道瓊工業平均指數、那斯達克綜合指數以及標準普爾 500 指數皆達到經濟蕭條時期後的最高點。

Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end.

很不幸地，美好的事情終有結束的一天。

Right now, there are a few red flags indicating that there could be trouble ahead for the U.S. economy and the stock market. 

最近，美國經濟豎起了紅旗，代表著經濟增長時期即將結束。

The first red flag is the inverted yield curve.

第一個暗示經濟成長時期將結束的警訊是反轉的殖利率曲線。

A yield curve inversion happens when longer-maturing bonds have a lower yield than shorter-maturing bonds.

殖利率曲線反轉代表著長期債券的殖利率會低於短期債券。

Generally speaking, short-term bonds should have lower yields than long-term bonds.

正常情況下，短期債券的殖利率應該要比長期債券的殖利率來得低。

After all, if you're giving up your money for a longer period of time, you expect to be paid more for doing so.

因為債券的期限越長，人們便會期望它的報酬率越高。

But over the past couple of months, the two-year and 10-year Treasury note swapped places a few times, with the two-year note bearing a higher yield than the 10-year, which is known as an inversion.

而過去幾個月來，美國殖利率發生數次反轉，兩年期公債的殖利率高於十年期公債的殖利率。

Every single recession in the U.S. economy since World War Two has been preceded by an inversion of the yield curve

二戰後，每次美國只要發生經濟蕭條之前，一定都會出現反轉的殖利率。

Although it's important to note that not all yield inversions have necessarily been followed by a recession.

不過，並不是所有的反轉殖利率都會伴隨著經濟蕭條。

Nevertheless, inversions don't come about unless there's some serious concern about the health of the U.S. economy.

此外，反轉的殖利率只會在經濟系統出現問題時才會出現。

A second concern for the economy is the current contraction in U.S. manufacturing.

第二個警訊就是製造業出現萎縮。

The Institute for Supply Management releases its Purchasing Managers' Index every month, which is a gauge for how the manufacturing sector is doing in the U.S.

美國供應管理協會每個月都會計算出採購經理指數 (PMI)，是用來衡量美國製造業的重要指標。

And in September, the PMI fell to 47.8%.

而在今年九月，採購經理指數下跌至 47.8%。

That's the lowest percentage it's been since June 2009, and any reading below 50 signals a contraction.

是 2009 年六月以來的最低數值，而且低於百分之五十的 PMI 為經濟蕭條的預兆。

There's little doubt that the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China is the biggest headwind in this confidence collapse in manufacturing.

有人指出中美貿易戰可能是導致 PMI 下跌的主因。

Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, recently said that we have now tariffed our way into a manufacturing recession in the U.S. and globally.

布萊克諮詢集團的首席投資官 Peter Boockvar 表示，美中互相徵收的高關稅將美國和全球的製造業都推向了衰退之路。

The U.S. and China have been trying to work out a long-term trade deal for more than a year now, with tariffs being imposed on and off for the past 15 months.

中國和美國之間的這場關稅貿易之戰已經打了十五個月。

There's simply no quick fix to the trade war, and the longer it lingers, the more U.S. manufacturing may suffer. 

而這場貿易戰並沒有快速的解決方法，不過戰爭持續越久，其帶給美國製造業的傷害將會越大。

Lastly, history would suggest that the stock market and U.S. economy are primed for a recession.

最後，觀察歷史資料可以發現無論是在股票市場或是整體經濟中，經濟蕭條是無可避免的。

Despite more than 10 years of expansion, there's a good probability that a recession will happen sooner rather than later.

儘管經濟擴張時期已長達越十年之久，但可能在不久之後就會就會再次陷入經濟蕭條之中。

The U.S. has had 14 recessions over the past 90 years, or about one every six and a half years.

過去九十年來，美國總共發生了十四次的經濟蕭條，計算下來平均每六年半發生一次。

Even though the U.S. economy doesn't stick to averages, this long-term data is pretty clear that recessions are a natural and unavoidable part of the economic cycle.

雖然美國實際經濟情況並不符合平均預期頻率，但宏觀歷史資料就會知道經濟蕭條是景氣循環中無法避免的自然現象。

We also know that stock market corrections are perfectly normal.

大家都知道市場修正是一件再正常不過的事情。

In fact, the S&P 500 has had 37 corrections of at least 10% since 1950.

事實上，從 1950 年開始，標準普爾 500 指數中約有三十七次 10% 的修正。

The bottom line is that no matter what the U.S. economy has historically thrown at the Dow, Nasdaq, or S&P 500, they've always bounced back stronger than they were before.

總而言之，無論美國經濟使道瓊指數、那斯達克指數或是標準普爾 500 指數出現再大的波動，它們最終仍會回到最一開始的數值。

That's why long-term investors continue to be rewarded for their patience.

這也就解釋了為何投資者只要有足夠耐心，長期下來仍會獲得報酬。

Thanks for watching this video!

感謝你的收看！

Do you think the U.S. economy is headed for a recession in 2020?

你認為美國在 2020 年會出現經濟蕭條嗎？

Let us know in the comments below.

在底下留言，告訴我們你的想法。

If you liked this video, click the thumbs up button and hit subscribe.

如果你喜歡這部影片，請按下喜歡並訂閱我們的頻道。

It helps us to reach more people, which allows us to make more awesome content.

如此一來，我們便可以接觸到更多人，製造更多有趣的內容。