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  • 45 years.

    45年。

  • It's been 45 years since China and Australia established diplomatic relations.

    中國和澳洲建交已經有45年的歷史

  • Since then, things

    從那時起,很多事物都改變了

  • have changed a lot.

    中共在1949年建國

  • Throughout all these years, both countries have maintained one the most fruitful, controversial

    它發起了口號:中國人民站起來

  • and interesting relationships in the entire planet.

    它是獨立口號,代表著中共的團結與自豪

  • A relationship based on stories about money, spies, accusations, infidelities and many,

    所以我們也說:澳大利亞人們站起來

  • but many conflicting interests.

    這些年以來,中澳兩國開始了堅定,卻也頗具爭議的關係

  • Because, in all honesty, if we were talking about a relationship between two people instead

    一段有關金錢,諜報,醜聞指控,背信

  • of two countries, we'd have a great script for a Latin American telenovela.

    以及許多利益衝突的外交關係

  • But obviously, this is VISUALPOLITIK, so... to the point.

    老實說,如果這邊討論的是兩個人的關係而非兩個國家

  • Today, China is this country's main commercial partner.

    這樣的關係會是拉丁美洲肥皂劇的好劇本

  • Their purchases represent about a third of all Australian exports, 8 times more than

    不過我們今天談的是政治,我們就單刀直入吧

  • exports to the US.

    時至今日,中國是澳洲最大的貿易夥伴

  • See, in 2015 China and Australia signed a free trade agreement and today their trade

    對中國的出口量占了近三分之一的總量

  • relations exceed 155 billion dollars per year.

    將近是對美國的八倍

  • And not only that, China is also becoming an increasingly important investor in Australia,

    中國和澳洲在2015年簽訂了自由貿易協定

  • a country where 1 in 20 people is Chinese; among them many millionaires who decided to

    兩國的年貿易總和來到了1550億美金

  • find a safer place with more guarantees for their assets and lives.

    不僅如此,中國也成為澳洲境內最重要的投資者

  • (Such is the scale of trade that financial markets have long been of the view that the

    每20位澳洲公民就有一位是中國藉,其中多是億萬富翁

  • Australian dollar is one of the best proxies for bets on China itself.

    目的是找一個提供財產和人身安全的地方

  • James Laurenceson, Deputy Director of the Australia-China Relations Institute, University

    基於澳洲市場的規模,許多中國的市場及投資者將澳幣視為避險基金

  • of Technology, Sydney.)

    00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:23,900 當然,事出必有因

  • Of course, this all has consequences.

    我們也在之前的影片提到過

  • We already talked about it, here in VISUALPOLITIK.

    澳洲已經突破紀錄,超過30年沒有任何國家危機

  • Australia has broken all records and has not known a crisis for almost 30 years.

    聽起來很猛,是吧

  • Sounds amazing, right?

    不過這樣的蓬勃發展和中國崛起有很大的關聯

  • Well, in all this success, the great Chinese takeoff had a lot to do.

    這也是為什麼澳洲智庫Lowy Institute對澳洲公民

  • Therefore, it's easy to understand why when the Lowy Institute, an important Think Tank

    發起了一項調查:中澳 或 美澳 關係,誰較重要?

  • in the country, asked Australians last year which relationship was more important to them,

    結果是平手

  • the one with the United States or the one with China, it was a tie.

    而美澳關係一直以來被認為較中澳堅定

  • Even when their relations with their North American friends are very close.

    儘管如此,中澳關係在2017年卻不是那樣順遂

  • However, in spite of this romance, the fact is that 2017 was not a year of love for Australia

    來看看前澳洲外交部長Bob Carr怎麼說

  • and China.

    中澳的口水仗升級

  • Check out what Bob Carr, former minister for foreign affairs of Australia, said on the

    澳洲首長的措辭是自六四天安門事件以來

  • subject:

    前所未見的嚴厲

  • ( “This year, Australia declared rhetorical war on China.

    在美國盟友間的批評力道最重,甚至超越日本

  • The words being used by Australian leaders are the harshest any time since diplomatic

    00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:32,239 如妳所見,2017對兩國來說都是艱困的一年

  • relations commenced in 1972, with the exception of comments at the time of the Tiananmen crackdown.

    根據中共環球時報的調查

  • The tone is harsher than that of any other US ally, including Japan.”

    對中國抱有最大敵意的國家是澳洲

  • Bob Carr.)

    實際上,川普在白宮的發言似乎是有過之而不及

  • As you can see, 2017 was a very difficult year for both countries' relations.

    我們不能再讓中共強暴我們的國家,必須阻止他們 這也是我們目前為止取得最大的成功

  • So much so that a survey by the Global Times, one of China's most popular newspapers,

    所以坎培拉和北京之間的糾紛到底是什麼?

  • determined that Australia was the most hostile country to China in 2017.

    我們一起來探討

  • And the truth is that, with Trump in the White House, those are big words.

    00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:15,099 實際上,2017年初對雙方來說看起來是個好年

  • But what the hell happened?

    經濟合作沒有放緩的趨勢

  • What has led to so much dissension between Canberra and Beijing?

    同時川普展現了"卓越"的外交手腕,針對澳洲總理開砲

  • Well, let's see.

    也降低了澳洲總理在區域的聲望

  • (THE STORM)

    澳洲政府甚至公開支持中國取代美國

  • In fact, at first, 2017 seemed like it'd be a good year for Chinese in Australia:

    成為誇太平洋夥伴關係協議的領頭羊

  • economic relations wouldn't stop growing;

    從電視劇的角度來看,愛就是在一起

  • Trump, showing off his best diplomatic skills, hung up on the Australian Prime Minister Malcolm

    好景不常,這樣的關係在年中惡化

  • Turnbull himself, further sinking his popularity in this area of the world;

    而且不是普通地差

  • and the Australian government even publicly supported China replacing the United States

    之前也有零星的衝突存在,不過都是芝麻小事

  • as a main member of the failed TPP, the Pacific free trade agreement.

    近幾年來,澳洲政府一直試圖在中國和美國之間取得平衡

  • We could almost say that, in telenovela terms, love was about to succeed.

    在經濟,澳洲仰賴北京政府 但在軍事方面仰賴美國

  • However, calmdidn't last longand everything started to go wrong halfway through

    00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:23,920 我們之前提到,共和黨將澳洲視為美國最重要的盟友

  • the year.

    他們也應該如此

  • Really wrong.

    澳洲是唯一一個參與了美國各大小戰爭的盟友

  • Yes... they'd had some clashes before, but nothing major.

    這些年來,和美國的軍事交流是如此的密切,甚至成為美國在該區域的代言人

  • In recent years, the Australian government has followed a strategy that basically consisted

    澳洲總理也親自表達他對美國的感激

  • in trying to balance their position between Beijing and Washington.

    00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:50,420 太平洋區域的穩定仰賴於美國的領導地位

  • In economic matters... it was all Beijing, and in security and defense matters...

    而這樣的領導地位出自其堅實的海軍實力

  • Washington, of course.

    它的實力也體現在價值上

  • We already mentioned here, in VISUALPOLITIK, that Republicans consider Australia to US's

    儘管歷史上風波不斷,但美國守護的核心價值從未改變:

  • best ally.

    民主國家的自由,民主及公平的法律

  • As it should be:

    00:06:07,370 --> 00:06:13,600 回到中國的角度,剛剛的發言是2017年6月2號所發表

  • Australia is the only country that intervened in every major US war, and for years their

    那也是第一次澳洲總理發表如此親美的言論

  • military relations have been so tight that Australia has become the US's spearhead

    也是給中國的一個警訊

  • in this area of the world.

    在可預見的未來,中國會孤立那些反對它,或是和它有利益衝突的國家

  • The Australian Prime Minister himself has shown his great appreciation for the United

    僅僅8天之內,媒體們就炸裂了

  • States:

    媒體爭相報導同一篇故事

  • (“The peace and stability of our region has been enabled by consistent US global leadership.

    澳洲的情報機構發出嚴重地警告

  • While that leadership would not have been possible without the hard power of fleets

    中國政府試圖透過各種管道影響澳洲政權

  • and armies, its greatest potency has come from the values which it embodies.

    手段包含了收買政府官員,記者,科學家,民調機構

  • Through all the twists and turns of history, the United States has stood for the values

    和恐嚇在澳洲的中國公民

  • on which its great republic was founded: freedom, democracy and the rule of law”.

    緊接著醜聞爆發

  • Malcolm Turnbull)

    新聞開始報導澳洲大學,研究機構,政府官員

  • But... back to the Chinese mattersee, these words were pronounced on June 2, 2017.

    和中國軍方的合作關係 其中包含了澳洲前貿易部長Andrew Robb

  • That was the first time that an Australian Prime Minister spoke so clearly in favor of

    現在在中資控制下的公司工作

  • Washington in a speech, which was also full of warnings

    利益交換達到了數百萬美元之多

  • to China.

    當然,澳洲情報機構提防中國間諜也已經不是新聞

  • And then, just 8 days later... the media storm broke out.

    許多政府機關將中資放進拒絕合作名單裡

  • Several media reported on a single story:

    舉例來說,華微已經被澳洲的5G標案裡除名

  • The Australian Intelligence Agency was making very serious warnings about the Chinese government's

    00:07:36,230 --> 00:07:40,930 這是因為澳洲害怕中國的滲透以及降低中資在澳洲的影響力

  • intentions to influence Australian politics through various means, including purchasing

    儘管如此,雙方的衝突從未達到如此的高度

  • politicians, journalists and scientists; or the surveillance and intimidation of citizens

    報導指出,中共政權正試圖

  • belonging to the Chinese community in Australia.

    收買澳洲媒體,大學機構甚至是民意代表

  • The scandal was unleashed.

    而這是現在進行式

  • Suddenly news started to emerge on the collaboration Australian universities and scientists with

    2017年12月12號,工黨參議員Sam Dastyari

  • Chinese military contractors or former politicians, such as the former Trade Minister Andrew Robb,

    澳洲的政治明星因為和中國政府掛鉤而被迫辭職

  • who now work for companies controlled by the Chinese government in exchange for juicy salaries

    我在之前的聲明說過,我是一位愛國者

  • that amount to hundreds of thousands of dollars.

    而那是我的真心話

  • And of course, the Australian security services' fear on Chinese espionage isn't new....

    之所以辭職是為了這個國家及人民

  • Various Australian governments have been blocking Chinese corporate operations for years, and

    除此之外它也被指控收賄以發表利中言論

  • have also banned companies such as Huawei from participating in deploying a national

    甚至暗中通風報信給中國商人

  • broadband network.

    而他正在接受情報機構的監控

  • This is all precisely because of a fear of espionage or excessive Chinese influence.

    手機甚至被竊聽

  • However, despite everything, controversy and tension had never gone this far.

    至於澳洲研究機構和中國軍方的合作

  • (“Media reports have suggested that the Chinese Communist Party has been working to

    收買記者跟政客...等等的指控從6月就開始了

  • covertly interfere with our media, our universities and even the decisions of elected representatives

    00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:55,580 澳洲政府公開譴責中國的行為,同時對間諜一案修法

  • right here in this building, in the Parliament . Malcolm Turnbull)

    也包括叛國罪,移民政策及政治獻金

  • On December 12, 2017, Sam Dastyari, Labor Party Senator and one of the most promising

    而這一切只是開端

  • political figures in the country, was forced to resign because of his ties to China.

    中國政府對我國積極情蒐已是公開的秘密

  • Among other things, he was accused of receiving money in exchange for speeches that favored

    中澳關係降到冰點也影響到澳洲對其它國家的外交政策

  • the Chinese government's interests and even of having alerted a Chinese businessman linked

    00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:21,310 2017年美澳兩國的交流是前所未有的密切

  • to the Communist Party that he could be being investigated by the country's intelligence

    00:09:22,310 --> 00:09:25,870 不過澳洲政府內部立場並非如此一致

  • agencies and that his phone could be tapped.

    00:09:27,210 --> 00:09:31,020 當局似乎不瞭解中國與澳洲經濟間的重要性

  • Well, scientists collaborating with Chinese military contractors, university infiltration,

    以及其中的伎倆

  • paying journalists, buying politicians... these accusations ran since the beginning

    00:09:38,210 --> 00:09:40,990 澳洲前總理Paul Keating

  • of June...

    你知道嗎

  • The Australian government denounced it publicly and began modifying its legislation on espionage,

    在這樣的情況下,我認為關於對中立場的辯論

  • treason, immigration and on financing political parties... and this, my friends, looks like

    澳洲政府的做法是可以理解的

  • it's just the beginning.

    一方面來說,許多人認為中國影響澳洲的指控證據不足

  • The consequences of these cooling political relations can be seen, for example, in foreign

    00:10:00,260 --> 00:10:04,980 有些人甚至認為這是由華府發起的行動

  • policy.

    另一方面,和中國政府決裂的決定

  • For example, we can clearly say that in 2017, Australia has been favoring the US like never

    對澳洲來說也很艱困

  • before.

    你可能會問為什麼

  • But, don't think that this position has been unanimous among the political class,

    看看以下影片

  • not at all

    中方說法

  • ( “The government doesn't seem to understand the economic importance of the relationship

    在整個政治風暴裡中國政府的立場相當強硬

  • with China or the strategic issues involved [...] “We are putting all of our faith in

    它們否認了所有的指控

  • our relationship with China through the foreign policy lens of the US.”

    中方甚至指控整起事件是針對種族和反中情結

  • Paul Keating, australian former prime minister)

    這樣的情節促使澳洲人民敵視整個中國社群

  • And my friends, you know what?

    00:10:43,910 --> 00:10:49,130 中國外交部警告在澳留學生注意人身安全

  • Given the circumstances, I think that this entire debate on the position Australia should

    00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:54,490 這樣的公告看起來很浮誇

  • take before China is quite understandable:

    事實上除了幾張貼在校園的反中宣傳單

  • On the one hand, many critics affirm that there isn't enough evidence of the Chinese

    沒有任何證據顯示中國留學生安全堪慮

  • interference that the government denounces.

    雖然外交部的公告太浮誇 不過這也點出一個事實

  • Some even say that this is all a political operation fed by Washington.

    反中並非值得鼓勵的

  • On the other hand, “breakingwith Chinaor at least being this forceful with the

    容我解釋一下

  • Beijing governmentisn't exactly easy for Australia.

    中國籍留學生佔了四成的澳洲留學生

  • Why?

    同時他們每年在澳洲消費近180億元

  • Check it out.

    00:11:22,890 --> 00:11:26,690 习近平也表達了:如果有必要

  • (CHINA DEFENDS ITSELF)

    他們會對澳洲經濟施壓

  • Throughout this entire political crisis, China has been very strong:

    這也是他們近期施加在南韓及台灣的手段

  • of course they have denied all accusations and have even said that this entire campaign

    而我們不只提到留學生,遊客及投資者也是重要的一環

  • is based on racial prejudice and a clear anti-Chinese paranoia.

    舉例來說,高消費市場在近年有爆炸性的成長

  • A paranoia they have claimed is turning into a clear hostility towards the Chinese community

    為什麼?

  • itself:

    00:11:52,190 --> 00:11:56,800 中國藉留學生,遊客及公民占了三分之二

  • (Chinese diplomats warn students in Australia to stay alert to safety risks after spate

    雪梨及墨爾本的高價消費市場營收

  • of attacksSouth China Morning Post.)

    00:12:00,060 --> 00:12:01,560 再舉另一個例子

  • Yes, this type of messages may seem exaggerated, especially because the truth is that beyond

    中國在澳洲的直接投資翻了數倍 不是10也不是20倍而是32倍

  • a few posters in some university or other, there seems to be no evidence of this acclaimed

    在9年之內

  • danger...

    00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:14,690 所以放緩對中國的交流影響是很大的

  • but, given that on the one hand this claim shows us how things are; on the other it is

    同時傷害澳洲經濟甚深

  • a kind of warning, because, clearly, it isn't good publicity.

    不過事情就是這樣運作的

  • Allow me to explain myself.

    截至目前,澳洲與美國的合作關係更加密切

  • Chinese students account for 4 out of every 10 foreign students in Australian universities,

    美國政府成功地鞏固了在太平洋區對它有利的盟友

  • and spend 18 billion dollars in the country every year.

    00:12:32,470 --> 00:12:33,930 同時對美國的軍火工業

  • Yes, you heard that right.

    近幾年澳洲成為他們最重要的顧客

  • It seems like Xi Jinping's government wants to make it very clear that it is willing,

    同時在未來的十年之內澳洲計畫投入1000億元在國防上

  • if necessary, to play in economic terms as a pressure measure.

    而美國軍火商在標案中具領先地位

  • Something that, by the way, they used recently with South Korea and Taiwan.

    同時澳洲國內也有聲音

  • And we aren't only talking about students, but also about tourists or investors.

    表示澳洲政府應保持中立和保衛國家安全

  • For example, in recent years the luxury sector has experienced a huge economic boom in Australia.

    同時減少公開批評

  • Do you know why?

    現在的問題是: 這件事會如何結束

  • Listen up:

    中澳的外交關係會正常化嗎

  • (“Students, tourists and Chinese residents in Australia are responsible for up to two-thirds

    只有時間能解決了

  • of all luxury retail sales in Sydney and Melbourne.”

    輪到你了,你覺得未來澳洲政府走向應該為何?

  • South China Morning Post.)

    留言中輸入答案

  • Want another example?

    也在問卷中留下

  • China's direct investments in Australia have multiplied, not by 10 or by 20, but by 32

    希望你們喜歡這部影片,同時別忘了按讚和訂閱

  • in just 9 years.

    每周一及四發布新影片

  • By 32!

    別忘了拜訪Reconsider Media Podcast

  • So, as you can see, slowing down this entire process could translate into a lot, and that

    它們提供了音效

  • is a lot of pain for the Australian economy.

    同時,謝謝收看

  • Anyway, my friends, that's the way things are.

  • So far, the Australian government remains faithful to its close relationship with Washington,

  • the United States seems to have secured an alliance that is essential for their interests

  • in this area of the world.

  • And for their military industry.

  • In recent years Australia became one of its best customers, and in the next decade, they

  • expect to spend more than 100 billion dollars renewing their Armed Forces, where American

  • contractors have an advantage

  • However, it isn't few, and by this I mean politicians, businessmen and citizens, who

  • ask Australia to remain neutral and protect its national security without having to make

  • so many public accusations.

  • How will this story end?

  • Will one of the most fruitful relationships in recent years be at risk?

  • Only time can tell.

  • But now it's your turn, where do you think Australian politics should turn?

  • Leave us your answer in the comments and in this survey.

  • Leave your answer in the comments as well as in the survey.

  • I really hope you enjoyed this video, please hit like if you did and don't forget to

  • subscribe to our channel for brand new videos every Monday and Thursday.

  • Also, don't forget to check out our friends at the Reconsider Media Podcast - they provided

  • the vocals in this episode that were not mine!

  • And as always, thanks for watching!

45 years.

45年。

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