The first 500 people to use the link in the description get their first two months free.

使用敘述中的連結的前 500 人，前二個月得免費。

Deep, in the mountains of Austria, lies the small, but scenic town of Hallstatt.

風景如畫的 Hallstatt 小鎮坐落於奧地利深山中。

But this isn't that, It's an exact replica, built 9,000 kilometers away, near Hong Kong.

但此鎮非彼鎮，它確實是個複製品，建於 9000 公里之外，接近香港。

Austria.

奧地利。

China.

中國。

It's home to European architecture, Chinese cuisine, and all the traffic of…

它擁有歐洲建築、中式菜餚、北韓的交通運輸。

North Korea.

北韓。

Because, during the day, it may be the wedding photo capital of the region,

因而，白天它應為這地區的婚禮照首都

But after the sun sets, its cottages become remarkably quiet.

但日落之後，村舍變得很安靜。

China's lookalike towns, of places like Paris, Berlin, London, and Jackson Hole, Wyoming,

在中國相似的小鎮，巴黎、柏林、倫敦、懷俄明州的傑克遜

aren't alone.

並不孤單。

In many places, across China, there are far more houses than there are people.

在中國很多地方，建物比起人多更多。

Long rows of apartments, even entire cities, sit completely, or mostly empty.

長排公寓幾乎占滿整個城市。

In total, approximately 50 million units, Or 22% of China's entire urban housing.

總共近五千萬個，或占據 22% 整個中國的建物。

But this doesn't mean they aren't being bought.

但這並不代表沒人買。

Because, they are.

因為他們

Like crazy.

近似瘋狂。

Ten years ago, most people were, as you'd expect, buying homes for the first time.

如你預期，十年前大部分的人第一次買房。

Today, it looks like this.

就像現在。

Second homes are the majority, and people are buying almost as many third homes as first!

大部分是第二次買房，且人們第三次買房幾乎和第一次買房一樣貴！

These aren't cheap, either.

它們卻也不便宜。

In Los Angeles, the price per square foot is $633.

在洛杉磯每坪要價 $633。

In Shenzhen, 805.

在深圳每坪要價 $805。

And, close your eyes, because you don't even wanna know the price in Hong Kong.

閉上雙眼，因為你根本不想知道香港的市價。

Now consider the difference in wages.

現在考慮工資差異。

The average annual income in Shenzhen is around 7,500 US Dollars, compared to 60 thousand

深圳平均年收入近 7500 美金，相較於 60000 美金

in LA.

在洛杉磯。

Something clearly doesn't add up.

有些東西明顯沒加上來。

People in China are buying homes like Americans buy… cars, But they're leaving them empty,

中國人買房像美國人買車，但他們空著房屋。

And it's not clear where the money is coming from, or why they're being built.

甚至資金來源不明，或興建原由不明。

The usual explanation is that China's government is so desperate for economic growth that it

最通常的解釋為中國政府對經濟成長的渴望

builds bridges to nowhere and houses to… look at.

而到處造橋蓋房。

But that's only one part of a much bigger story.

但這只是九牛一毛。

China's troubles begin with its political system.

中國的問題源自於它的政治體制。

The Central Government is the highest level of its only party.

中央政府享有唯一的政黨之最高位階。

Here, laws are written and the fate of the nation, decided.

法的制定和國家命運在這裡被決定。

Beijing is THE ultimate authority.

北京市最高官方機構。

It appoints everyone from secretaries to governors, and isn't afraid to move them around should

它指派從書記到州長的所有人，並不畏懼去做應該的改動造成

any one official gain too much influence.

任何人過多的影響。

BUT - it would also be a mistake to see China as one, singular power.

但 -- 單一的看待中國、獨權可能是個錯。

Because below the central government is a network of local divisions: 22 regional provinces,

因為在中央政府轄下有地方部門網絡：22 個省

4 municipalities, 4 autonomous regions, and 2 Special Administrative.

4 個直轄市、 4 個自治區、 2 個特別行政區。

Under those are over 300 prefectures.

此之下是超過 300 個縣。

Followed by the less important counties, townships, and villages.

接下來是較不重要的縣、鎮、村。

Now, just as Californians have different concerns than do Texans or Floridians,

現在，如加州與德克薩斯或是佛羅里達有不同考量

China is a big country, and the interests of a coastal exporter like Shenzhen are very

中國是一個大國，像深圳，沿海出口之利

different than those of, say, a more independent region like Inner Mongolia.

與相對獨立的區域如內蒙古，有著很大的不同。

The same is true for different levels of government.

相同的是政府垂直分級。

While Beijing writes the rules, cities apply and enforce them.

當北京制定規則，城市應用並執行它們。

Often, very differently.

常常，很不同步。

And there's one, awkward little detail: Cities receive just 40% of tax revenue, but

有此一例，一尷尬的小細節：城市只有 40% 的稅收利益，但

are responsible for 80% of their expenses.

負責 80% 的開銷費用。

So, naturally, they need another source of income.

所以，自然，它們需要另尋收入。

And this is where things get interesting.

這令事情變得有趣。

In China, rural land is collectively owned.

在中國，鄉村土地是集體占有。

Everyone, and also no-one, owns it, which means it can't be the location of a new

所有人，也就是沒有人擁有它，意味著它不能有新的

luxury apartment.

豪華公寓。

But luckily for cities, they have the power to rezone land from rural to urban, which

但幸運的是，對城市而言，它們有權力將土地從鄉村重劃到都市，其

can be developed.

可以被發展。

In other words, they own a money printing machine.

換句話說，它們有印鈔機。

Watch this: First, a city buys cheap, rural land, Which it then redefines as urban, And

注意：首先，一個城市買了便宜的鄉下土地，到時候再重劃成都市用地

finally, sells to developers at its now, much higher, price.

最終以高價賣給現在的開發者。

Like.

如此一般。

Magic.

魔術般。

Over, and over, and over, again.

一而再，再而三。

Cities get much-needed cash, and developers build housing like it's nobody's business.

城市賺得急需的現金，而開發者老練的蓋房。

Now, unlike states in America, local governments here are generally forbidden from taking loans.

如今，不像美國各州，地方政府一般被禁止申貸。

But, again, there's a loophole.

但，這也有漏洞。

Cities can create a Local Government Financial Vehicle, which is a fancy way of saying, a

城市可以創造一個地方政府金融載具，所謂以另類的方式成一家

state-owned company.

州屬公司。

And by “giving” it that new urban land, the “company” can do what the city legally

並藉由給予新都市用地，「公司」可做到城市依法不能做的

can't: borrow money.

借錢。

Which, they can use to build roads, schools, and, on occasion, replica Austrian towns.

它可用以鋪路、建校、有時修建仿奧地利小鎮。

This is so effective that, in some years, land sales account for 40% of local government

此效率之高，這些年，土地買賣占地方政府 40% 的

revenue.

收益。

Plus, all this construction increases GDP, which just so happens to be the way officials

再者，所有的建設增加國內生產總值，正好合乎官方

get promoted.

所推動的方式。

It's a perfect system.

它是完美的系統。

At least, until it's not.

至少，直到它不再完美。

If, or, when, housing prices fall, so does city revenue.

如果，或是當房價跌落，城市的利益也隨之減少。

And, all those loans probably won't magically disappear.

況且那些貸款可能不會魔術般的消失。

Beijing wants to avoid a housing crisis, but cities just want to survive, and governors,

北京當局想要避免房市危機，但是城市只是想要生存，而且州長

get promoted, which puts the two at odds.

想晉升，兩方背道而馳。

Eventually, cities start running out of land to sell, and have no choice but to build more.

最終，城市開始售罄土地，別無選擇下去建更多。

Like this one, which spent 2 billion dollars blowing up the tops of mountains.

像這個，花費二十億去爆破山頂。

Those developers who purchase that land, by the way, are required to use it, which leads

順帶一提，那些買地的開發者被要求去使用它們

to many, often quickly-constructed, low-quality, houses.

導致很多快速建成的低品質房屋。

And that brings us to the second question: why are people buying them?

而這導致第二個問題：人們為何而買？

And doing it like their life depended on it?

並且像是人生的依託？

Well, for one, because it kinda does.

好吧，有個原因，多少有些關聯。

Thanks to the famous One Child Policy, China now has the entire population of Canada more

幸虧有名的一胎化政策，中國現有總人口多於加拿大

men than women.

男多於女。

And that means fierce competition for marriage.

也意味著激烈的婚姻競爭。

Men are expected to own at least one property before even being considered.

男人再被考慮之前，被期許去擁有至少一樣財產。

It's one of the most important elements of social status.

這是社會階層的其中一項重要因素。

For many, real estate isn't just an opportunity, it's a downright social necessity.

對很多人來說，不動產不只是個機會，也全然是一項社會需求。

Because of this, friends and family pool money together to help buy homes for their children.

因此，親朋好友合資為他們的孩子買房。

And that's how, nearly everyone, in a country with the per capita GDP of the Dominican Republic,

這是為何在這個人均國內生產總值相當於多明尼加共和國的國家

can afford some of the most expensive homes on the planet.

幾近所有人可以負擔起這地球上最昂貴的房屋。

The other big factor is that Chinese citizens Save.

另一個重要因素是中國公民的儲蓄。

Like.

喜歡。

Crazy.

狂熱。

When it comes to saving money, there's China, and then there's basically everyone else.

說到存錢，中國和其他地方基本上都會。

Where, Europeans put 4 percent of their disposable income in the piggy bank, Chinese drop nearly

歐洲人有百分之四的收入放進存錢筒裡，中國人則有將近四成。

40!

The problem is, where can they put it?.

問題是，他們把錢放到哪去？

China's domestic stock market is just too risky, And its banks are often seen as unpredictable.

中國本地股票市場風險太高，而且它的銀行通常被視為難以預測的。

Which makes real estate a Chinese investor's best friend.

這使不動產成為中國投資客的好朋友。

It alone accounts for 70% of all household wealth.

它獨占七成家庭財產。

It also doesn't hurt that property tax is a beautiful 0%.

財產稅是美好的 0%。

When taxes are only paid upfront, why wouldn't you buy as soon as possible, and just sit

當稅只是預付，何不盡快買下

on it?

擱置？

Put all this together, and you have a recipe for extreme house buying.

把這些都考慮進去，你會有極端買房的祕訣。

An amazing 90% of homes are owned by their residents.

令人驚奇， 90% 的房子為居民所有。

Europe and the U.S., stand at 69 and 64%, respectively.

歐洲和美國則相對有 69% 及 64% 的房子為居民所有。

And while we're on the subject of crazy high numbers, Ninety-four percent of Chinese

而我們談論的是高到瘋狂的數字

millennials who don't already own, plan on buying in the next five years.

中國 94% 的千禧世代尚未擁有，並計畫五年後購買。

What else do 94% of people agree on?

還有什麼是 94% 的人取得一定共識的？

Not even China can quench this thirst for real estate.

不只中國會澆熄對不動產的渴求。

Despite laws against it, billions of dollars flow out of the country every year into foreign

雖然法律禁止，每年有十億流到外國資產。

property.

It's so common in places like Vancouver, that, earlier this year, it introduced a 20%

像是溫哥華，早年這很普遍

tax for foreigners.

設給外國者 20% 的稅。

The irony is that while cities like Beijing and Hong Kong have so little room, people

諷刺的是像北京、香港少有空間

are forced to sleep underground, these 50 million homes can't find renters.

人們被迫睡在地下，那五千萬個房子找不到承租人。

So, hey, if you live in California, I think I may have found an escape plan.

所以，若你居於加州，我想我可能找到逃生計畫。

Anyway, not only are these homes bought without interiors, literally just concrete walls,

無論如何，這些已購買的房屋不只沒有裝潢，其實僅有水泥牆

but they're also usually located outside city centers, where there aren't as many

但他們也通常位在市中心外圍，那裡的工作沒有相對的多。

jobs.

Now, the assumption in all of this, is that, eventually, people will come, And speculation

現在，所有的假設是最終人們會進來

will become reality.

推測將會成真。

The Eastern side of Shanghai, for example, was once laughed at by Milton Friedman for

舉例來說，東上海曾一度被 Milton Friedman 嘲笑

being totally empty.

空空如也。

Today, as a financial capital of the world, with a GDP of 400 billion, we can pretty safely

如今，做為國內生產總值高達四兆的世界金融重鎮

say it's proven the haters wrong.

我們可以可靠的說那些不看好的人錯了。

China is in the process of migrating 300 million people from country to city, And, of course,

中國有 30 億人口從鄉村到城市

they'll need a place to live.

當然他們需要住處。

Inevitably, many of these cities will spring to life.

其中不少城市不可避免地將重獲新生。

That doesn't mean everything is peachy.

這不代表全都是好的。

A few things are decidedly not peachy.

有些事並不出色是無疑的。

First, remember that the vast majority of empty homes is expensive, commodity housing.

首先，記得空房多是昂貴的商品房。

These are not the kinds of places you buy coming from a farm in the country.

他們不是那種從鄉下買來的農場。

And second, all these homes have an expiration date.

其次，這些房子全都有截止期限。

In China, a building can be owned, but the land beneath it can only ever be leased - from

在中國，可以擁有一個建物，但建物之下的土地只能向政府承租

the government, for 70 years.

長達 70 年。

After that, it's anyone's guess whether ownership will be renewed.

畢竟誰都不知道所有權將來是否更新。

And if so, for how much.

若是如此，價格也是一樣的。

But, the truth is, 70 years is pretty optimistic…

但真相是 70 年是相當樂觀的...

Think about it this way: If construction is good for GDP, why build once, when you can

想想這個方法：若建造有利於國內生產總值

build and re-build every few years?

當你可以一再重建，又怎麼會只建一次呢？

It's kinda like the iPhone, if you'd like to upgrade every year, Apple will happily

就像 iPhone 你想年年換新

sell you a new phone.

蘋果公司樂於賣給你新的手機。

It's certainly not judging.

這毫無疑問。

Except, in the case of China's housing, developers are incentivized to make short-term

除此之外，中國的房市案例，開發方被鼓勵炒短線

bets, they know their homes will only last a few decades anyway, which means using lower

他們知道無論如何，他們的房子只會存在幾年而已

quality materials.

這代表著低品質建材的使用。

Meanwhile, cities continue taking loans and housing prices continue rising unsustainably.

同時，城市持續借貸，房價開始斷續攀升。

Of course, Beijing knows all this.

當然，北京當局全都知道。

It's aware of the bubble, the risks involved, and it knows more or less how to fix it - some

它注意到泡沫化的風險，或多或少知道如何修正

combination of slowing down lending, reining-in local governments, and introducing a property

聯合去減緩租借、支配地方政府、設制財產稅

tax, like Shanghai.

如上海。

The problem is, real estate is so intertwined with its GDP, that any of these solutions

問題是不動產與國內生產總值息息相關，所以任何解決方法

would seriously risk slowing down its economy.

都有經濟衰退的嚴重風險。

In the coming decades, the world will watch as China does its best to carefully balance

在接下來幾十年，這世界將看著中國盡它所能小心地

its enormous challenges with its relentless desire to grow its economy and realize The

去平衡巨大挑戰與經濟成長、實現大中國夢的強烈的渴望。

Chinese Dream.

As Beijing prepares for economic change by diversifying its revenue, You and I should

當北京當局藉由多樣化收益來源來準備經濟變革

do the same.

你我都應該如此。

Today's sponsor, Skillshare, helps you learn new things so you can do just that.

現今贊助者 Skillshare 幫助你學到新的事物，所以你能做到的。

If you're still watching this, it's clear that a) You like learning things and b) You

如果你仍在觀看，很明顯，你熱愛學習

learn visually, which means Skillshare's video lessons are perfect for you.

並且能視覺上的學習，這意味著 Skillshare 的影片最適合你不過了。

There are classes on starting your own business, taught by successful entrepreneurs,

這裡有由成功企業家們教授的課程，你能自主開始

Topics like how to start programming your own apps or games from scratch ,

主題像是如何開始從腳本編程自有應用程式或遊戲

and creative classes, like drawing, or my course on how to make your own YouTube videos,

以及創意課程像是繪畫，或是我的課程中製作你自己的 YouTube 影片

where I go over my process, from writing scripts to animating them.

我會從寫腳本到動畫化它們仔細瀏覽過程。

Here's the thing: there's absolutely no risk, so if any of this sound interesting,

重點是：這很明顯毫無風險，所以任何狀似有趣的

just give it a try,

只需一試。

Because the first 500 people to use the link in the description get 2 months completely

因為前 500 個使用敘述中連結的人將獲 2 個月完全

free.

免費。

Thanks to Skillshare for sponsoring this video and to you for listening.

感謝 Skillshare 贊助這支影片以及你的觀賞。