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  • TEDx Ojai | x = Independently organized TED event

    TEDx奧海鎮 x=獨立組織的TED活動

  • The title of this presentation is 'The Big Question:

    這份簡報的標題叫作"大哉問:

  • Environmental Misalignment and the Value War'.

    環境失調和價值觀戰爭"

  • Human society today has two diametrically opposed systems of economy.

    今日的人類社會 有兩種截然對立的經濟體系

  • One is our traditionally imposed mode of monetary-market economics.

    一種是我們傳統上被灌輸的金融貨幣-市場經濟

  • The other is a physical-rule structure emerging

    另一種是物理上的實體結構規則

  • from our growing scientific recognition of reality

    正從我們對於日益增長的科學現實認知中而浮現

  • both environmentally and sociologically.

    同時包含環境和社會方面的觀點

  • The consequence is an ever-increasing level of social destabilization

    其造成的後果是越來越嚴重的社會不穩定

  • and an ongoing decline in public health.

    以及公眾健康持續惡化衰敗

  • I've divided this into two brief sections. The first part is called

    我將簡報劃分成簡潔的兩部份 第一部份叫作

  • 'System Clash: Market Efficiency vs. Technical Efficiency'

    "體系衝突:市場效率VS科技效率"

  • Part two: 'Values Wars: Societal Potential, Collapse and Transition'

    第二部份:"價值觀戰爭:社會中的潛力 崩潰和轉型"

  • (what we're capable of doing, what's in store for us if we don't

    (即我們能做到什麼 如果我們不改善的話會有什麼等著我們

  • how we can get out of this system, etc).

    我們如何超越目前的體系等等)

  • Before I begin part one, what is economy?

    在我開始第一部份前 先談談"經濟"是什麼

  • It's defined in Greek as the management of a household

    在希臘文中 這一詞被定義為管理家務事

  • a definition that's often lost.

    一種經常被人們遺忘的定義

  • To economize, what does that mean? It means to increase efficiency.

    即去"節約 節儉" 這表示什麼? 這意味著增加效率

  • Keep that in mind: reducing waste.

    記住以下這點:減少浪費

  • That's what economy is supposed to be.

    這就是經濟應該做的事

  • Defining my terms, we'll use two terms throughout this presentation.

    接著定義我用的詞匯 我將使用兩個詞匯貫穿整個簡報

  • The first is a theoretical notion of the 'Earth Economy' which I'll define as

    第一個是理論上的"地球經濟" 我將定義為

  • "Decisions made directly based upon scientific understandings

    "直接根據科學上的理解認知所作出的決策

  • as they relate to optimized habitat management and human health."

    因為這些決策與優化人類的事務管理和人類健康有關"

  • Production and Distribution is regulated by the most technically efficient

    生產和分配 是由已知最具科技效率

  • and sustainable approaches known

    和最永續的方式來規範

  • compared to our currently existing 'market economy' defined [as]

    相對於我們現存的"市場經濟" 其被定義為

  • "Decisions are based on independent human actions

    "根據毫無約束的人類行動而作出的決策

  • through the vehicle of monetary exchange

    透過金融貨幣交換這個載體

  • regulated by the pressures of Supply and Demand.

    由供給和需求的壓力所管制

  • Production and Distribution is enabled by the buying and selling

    生產和分配經由勞動和物質供給

  • of labor and material provisions, with the motivations of a person or group

    從而實行銷售 伴隨著一個人或群體

  • (the self- interest) as the defining attribute of unfolding.

    自利的動機 作為昭然若揭的特徵"

  • This is a chart of seven economic attributes.

    這是一張七種經濟屬性的圖表

  • [There are] many more but this is what I wanted to focus on here.

    有更多的屬性 但這是我在此想要聚焦的

  • Basically they are intrinsic to each economy, in comparison.

    基本上這種比對的結果內存於個別的經濟中

  • I'm focusing on the market economy and its relationship to a natural system

    我將專注於市場經濟和它對於自然體系的關係

  • what we're calling the 'earth economy.'

    自然體系即我所稱的"地球經濟"

  • The only caveat here with these asterisks

    這些星號此處唯一的警示意義是

  • are elements of our sociological development

    關於我們社會發展的元素

  • based on scientific integrity and ingenuity:

    是根據科學的完整和精妙的程度

  • the evolution of science and our knowledge of ourselves and the environment.

    即我們對於自身和環境知識的科學進化

  • That will be talked about as we touch upon each one of these.

    這將會被談論到 當我們觸及每一個這些論點時

  • 1) Consumption

    1)消費

  • In a market economy the entire thing is based on consumption.

    市場經濟中 整個核心基礎在於消費

  • The only reason that you're wearing clothes, that you're eating

    你穿衣服 吃東西 擁有房屋的唯一理由

  • or that you have a home is because someone somewhere is

    是因為某處的某人

  • buying or giving a service, exchanging money in some form and consuming.

    正在購買或提供服務 以某種形式和消費在交換金錢

  • That's what this system is.

    這就是目前體系的本質

  • What does the natural world have to say about that?

    但這跟自然世界有何相關?

  • What does an 'earth economy' have to say?

    "地球經濟"能有任何發言權嗎?

  • The Earth is a finite closed system.

    地球是一個資源有限的封閉體系

  • Preservation, not consumption, should be the ethos.

    "保存"而非"消費"才應該要蔚為風氣

  • If you lived on an island with a small group of people

    如果在一座島上住著一小群人

  • and you had a finite amount of resources with a natural generation of growth

    而且你資源的數量有限 人口自然增長

  • a very simplified society, would you decide to make an economic system

    而且你資源的數量有限 人口自然增長

  • that tried to use that up as fast as possible?

    試圖儘快搾乾這些資源的經濟體系嗎?

  • No, and I'm afraid the Earth is an isolated island

    不會的 而且我認為地球在廣大的宇宙之海中

  • in a vast cosmic sea, and is a lot smaller than we think.

    是一塊孤立的大地 而且遠比我們所認為的還要渺小

  • 2) Obsolescence: The market system is driven explicitly by obsolescence.

    2)報廢:市場體系明顯地是由物品的報廢所驅動

  • Two [types]: Intrinsic Obsolescence

    有兩種報廢類型:"內在報廢"

  • being the use of cost-efficiency

    因為利用了"成本效益"這個概念

  • meaning that every good produced has to be inferior

    即每個生產出來的產品 在其被製造出來的那一刻

  • the moment it's made because the corporate institutions must save money

    註定要是次等品質 因為企業公司在生產過程的一開頭

  • at the very beginning of production to remain competitive

    就一定要節省成本 以保持競爭優勢

  • against everyone else competing

    與其它人競爭

  • [and] Planned Obsolescence, which is much more insidious

    第二種為"計畫報廢" 這種更為陰險狡詐

  • a form of fraud (even though it's completely codified

    是詐欺的一種形式(即使它被完全重新包裝

  • and formalized as a marketing tactic) basically designs goods

    並塑造為一種銷售策略) 基本上就是設計會損壞的物品

  • to break down under the assumption of repeat purchases.

    在重複購買和循環消費的這種假設下

  • It's truly amazing that this exists at all.

    這種事存在於世上確實令人吃驚

  • What does Nature have to say about this? Building upon what we just stated:

    "自然"能夠說什麼嗎? 根據我們剛剛所陳述的:

  • It's environmentally irresponsible to design goods to fail

    設計會故障的物品或使其無端地失靈

  • or allow them to fail unnecessarily.

    等同於無視環境責任

  • That is basically offensive. We need optimum design

    這基本上是惹人厭的 我們需要將設計最佳化

  • to have things last, survive.

    好讓物品能耐久存續

  • 3) Property

    3)財產

  • The ownership metaphysic is a core premise

    "所有權"這個形上概念是關鍵的假設

  • allowing controlled restriction of resources and goods.

    能允許控制並限制資源和物品

  • I say metaphysic because property isn't real.

    我說它是"形上的" 這是因為"財產"不是真實的

  • There's not such thing as ownership in the broad scheme

    嚴格來說並無所謂的"所有權"

  • not either intellectual or physical goods.

    對智慧財產或實體物品而言皆如此

  • It's all transient.

    這些都是短暫虛幻的

  • The idea of everyone owning one of everything for example.

    例如以下概念:"所有人都擁用一份所有東西"

  • Does that make a lot of sense when we think about our natural economy?

    當我們思考"自然的"經濟時 這種概念合理嗎?

  • What about the use of goods? What about access?

    物品的使用如何呢? 取得使用權又如何?

  • The natural environment demands access. Universal property is inefficient.

    自然的環境要求"取得使用" 而普遍的"財產"概念是無效率的

  • Strategic access is more environmentally responsible

    此種"策略性取得"的模式 對於環境更為負責

  • as a model and more socially efficient.

    且更具社會效率

  • If you have a car that you drive maybe 40% of the time

    如果你有一部只花可能40%的時間駕駛的車輛

  • why not let the other 60% be used by somebody else?

    那為何不讓剩下60%的時間給其它人使用?

  • You create a system of access and use. That's environmentally responsible.

    這樣就創造了"取得"和"使用"的體系 這才是對環境負責

  • 4) Growth, building on consumption once again

    4)根據消費而建構的成長 再說一次

  • The market economy requires near constant growth to maintain employment.

    市場體系需要近乎永久的增長 以維持就業

  • This ties in a little bit with the growth of population as well.

    這與人口的增長也有點相關

  • You always hear about this in the government:

    你總是聽政府說:

  • "We have growth. We need more growth, GDP. We're lacking growth."

    "我們經濟成長了 我們需要更多的GDP成長 我們缺乏成長"

  • It's basically just absurd!

    這基本上就是瘋狂荒謬!

  • We need a 'steady state' economy. The Earth is a finite system.

    我們需要一種"穩定狀態"的經濟 因為地球是有限的封閉系統

  • Earth demands a 'balanced load' economy respecting dynamic equilibrium

    地球需要一種"平衡負載"的經濟 能重視"動態平衡"

  • where things come together in balance, not the necessity to exhaust

    其中事物平衡運作 而不需要資源耗竭

  • just to maintain labor.

    只為了維持勞動

  • 5) Competition: This inches into our new sociological developments

    5)競爭:這裡開始深入了新的社會發展

  • that aren't talked about enough. [A] Market Economy [is] based upon

    此方面尚未充份論述 [A]市場經濟是根據

  • personal and corporate competition in the open market:

    個人和企業財團的公開市場競爭:

  • selling your labor, competing for market share.

    出賣你的勞力 以競爭市場份額

  • That's a completely metaphysical notion

    這完全是一種形上的概念

  • based on an early tribalistic form of scarcity, this notion

    只是根據早期部落時期匱乏的心理機制

  • that we can't possibly get along or can't be enough to go around

    此概念認為我們不可能有足夠多的物資來分配

  • so we have to fight for everything and everyone is out for themselves.

    所以我們必須為每件事抗爭奮鬥 自掃門前雪

  • What we've come to find is that human collaboration

    我們已逐漸發現的是 人類合作

  • actually is at the core of all invention. It's called 'usufruct'.

    實際上才是所有發明的核心 這稱作"用益物權"

  • Psychological studies now show long term distortion with the competitive view.

    心理學的研究現在指出 "競爭"的觀點會造成長期的扭曲

  • The great amount of distortion, corruption, crime

    大量的扭曲 腐敗 犯罪

  • all you hear in the headlines: white-collar, blue-collar

    所有你在頭條中聽到的:白領 藍領

  • all comes from this primitive notion of a competitive environment

    這些都來自於競爭性的環境這種原始概念

  • and nothing is held as sacred.

    再也沒別的東西是神聖的

  • 6) Labor for Income

    6)勞動獲取薪資

  • Human survival is contingent upon one's ability to obtain employment

    人類生存是取決於一個人獲得就業的能力

  • and enable sales. That's your right to life.

    以及銷售的能力 這是掌握你生命的權力

  • If you can't get labor, you might as well die

    如果你不能工作 你就非常可能死亡

  • because you don't serve a economically efficient role.

    因為你在經濟上並不能發揮有效率的角色

  • What does this mean to our development in science and technology?

    這對我們科學和科技的發展意味著什麼?

  • Mechanization is incredible!

    這表示機械化是驚人的!

  • The advent of automation is making human employment

    自動化的降臨至少正在使人類的就業職位

  • more scarce at a minimum and possibly obsolete entirely.

    最低限度的更少 而且可能完全淘汰現存"工作"

  • Mechanization is also more productive and efficient than human labor

    機械化也比人力更具生產力和效率

  • which means it's socially irresponsible for us not to mechanize

    表示若我們不使用機械化 並享受其所創造的果實:

  • and enjoy the fruits of the abundance, ease and safety it can create.

    富裕 自在和安全 那麼對社會而言就是不負責的

  • 7) Scarcity and Imbalance: Contrary to what most think

    7)匱乏和不平衡:與大多數人的認知相反

  • money and the movement of money that generates consumption economy

    金錢和金錢的流動創造了消費型經濟

  • is explicitly based on imbalance and inefficiency.

    但很明顯是奠基於不平衡和無效率之上

  • It's really an inefficiency economy, an anti-economy.

    目前的經濟 確實是無效率的 甚至是"反經濟"

  • The poverty you see and the imbalance

    你所看見的貧困和不平衡

  • is not just some by-product or result of some greed, institution, etc.

    並不只是一些副產品 貪婪或各種機構危害的結果

  • that is inherent to the system. The system wouldn't work

    這些缺陷先天就存在於此體系中 如果"經濟"有效率

  • if it was efficient and there was a balance in any element of human survival.

    而且人類存活的要素都能保持平衡 那此體系就會崩潰

  • Why would we want that? Abundance, equality!

    我們為何想要這些? 為了得到富裕和平等!

  • New sociological studies have found that equality is much more positive

    新的社會研究已發現 "平等"對於公眾健康而言

  • to public health. If you compare the US

    是更正面的 如果你比較美國

  • (a highly stratified society with deep imbalance) to Norway and Sweden

    和挪威與瑞典(美國是高度的階級社會 充滿不平衡)

  • that have much less levels of stratification, the public health

    這兩個國家有社會階級差距較低 那麼公眾健康

  • in those less stratified societies blow us out of the water.

    在那些階級較不明顯的社會中 會勝過我們(美國)

  • Why not work to create an abundance through all these mechanisms

    為何不透過所有這些高效率的機械化去創造富裕?

  • of efficiency that technology now enables to meet human needs

    科技現在能滿足人類需求

  • reduce crime, all sorts of other obvious sociological phenomena.

    減少犯罪和其它明顯的社會現象

  • 'Spectrum of Social Disorder' and there it is!

    這就是"社會失序的光譜"!

  • You have a macro-socioeconomic system, a macroeconomic element

    你有宏觀的社會經濟體系和要素

  • that is basically funneling out this distortion from childhood

    基本上從童年開始就灌輸這種扭曲概念

  • all the way through every level of sociological exhibition.

    一路通到整個社會層面的範疇

  • Everything you see is coming

    你看到的任何事

  • from this very sick distortion premise of 'economy.'

    都是從這個扭曲至極的"經濟"假設而來

  • My interest, ultimately [is] the relationship of macroeconomics to sociology.

    我最終的關注焦點 是宏觀經濟與社會的關係

  • Part Two (change!) 'Values Wars: Societal Potential, Collapse and Transition'

    第二部份(改變!) 價值觀戰爭:社會潛能 崩潰和轉型

  • Over here are a series of social problems

    在這裡有一系列的社會問題

  • that you would see in the newspapers:

    你將會在報紙中看到:

  • poverty, unemployment, destabilization, debt collapse, pollution, waste

    貧困 失業 不穩定 債務 崩潰 汙染 浪費

  • all of which are completely, technically obsolete.

    所有這些都可用科技完全解決

  • None of them have to exist at all.

    完全不必要存在

  • At a minimum they could be reduced to a very core degree

    至少能被降低至一個非常有限的範圍

  • though a little more subjective.

    雖然這樣講有點主觀

  • Removing the environmental and sociological inefficiency inherent to the 'market'

    消除"市場"中固有的環境和社會無效率

  • and simply applying modern scientific understandings resolves

    並純粹應用現代的科學理解 將能大量地

  • or greatly reduces all of these issues.

    解決或減緩這些所有問題

  • That is our potential. Since we don't maximize that potential unfortunately

    這是我們的潛力 但很不幸 因為我們並未完全發揮潛能

  • (because of this framework we're in) we are faced

    (因為我們受制於目前的框架中)所以我們面對了

  • with a unique form of collapse that many are not talking about enough.

    一種特殊形態的崩潰 而大多數的人們卻談論甚少

  • There's three nails in the coffin as far as I'm concerned.

    我認為有三根致命的釘子能讓人類死在棺材裡

  • Unemployment: Based on the way things are going

    失業:根據事態的現狀

  • you won't see % employment levels that you've ever seen in the past

    你將不會看到過去所見的"百分之幾"的就業成長率了

  • for the human population. It's over.

    對於人類而言 "就業"已經結束了

  • Energy costs: only going to rise, we live within a hydrocarbon economy.

    能源花費:只會往上漲 因為我們生活在石油經濟中

  • There's absolutely no investment or true intention of the government

    政府或企業財團 絕對沒有真正的投資或意圖

  • or corporate institutions to move forward with any type of renewables

    去致力發展運用任何種類的可再生能源

  • that'd replace the current massive infrastructure we have created

    因為這會取代我們已大量創造的基礎設施

  • and far too much more money will be made as the system fails

    而且當此體系崩潰時 將會造出遠遠更多的金錢

  • because of the scarcity of this thing.

    因為這件事會引起匱乏

  • Debt Failure: Am I the only one laughing

    債務崩潰:我是唯一正在嘲笑

  • at the fact that there's this fictional notion of 'debt'

    所謂"債務"這個虛幻概念的人嗎?

  • that's like dominoes knocking down countries one by one?

    國家就像骨牌一樣 一個接著一個倒(破產)下去

  • Transition: Here is the value war.

    轉型:這裡就是價值觀的戰爭

  • When I speak with people about these issues

    當我與人們談論這些問題時

  • they tend to understand it but they have these value associations

    他們傾向去理解 但他們對這些傳統價值觀

  • that hold on to old artifacts of the prior system.

    仍心有所屬 固守著之前體系的老舊概念

  • It's a value war. How do we get from one to the other?

    這是一場價值觀戰爭 我們如何從此岸到彼岸?

  • What can we do to inspire change and create social reform?

    我們能做什麼以激發改變和創造社會改革?

  • And that is the big question: What will you do? What kind of form?

    這就是大哉問:你將會做什麼?是哪一種的改革?

  • What kind of social awareness? What kind of role do you think you can play?

    哪種社會意識和覺察? 你認為你可以扮演哪種角色?

  • Will you maximize your own self-interest? Or will you realize

    你將把個人私益最大化? 或你將了解到

  • that your self-interest is only as good as the integrity of society as a whole

    你的私益程度 只有當社會作為一個整體時才算數

  • where self-interest must become social interest in order for us to survive?

    其中個人私益一定要轉變成社會利益 以讓我們共同存活下去?

  • That is the new equation and that is the big question.

    這就是新的平衡和大哉問

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝你的聆聽

TEDx Ojai | x = Independently organized TED event

TEDx奧海鎮 x=獨立組織的TED活動

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