The first 200 to use the link in the description get 20% off their annual premium subscription.

前200名使用描述中的鏈接。 獲得其年度高級訂閱20%的折扣。

You've probably seen them around. Electric scooters dumped just about anywhere.

你可能已經看到他們周圍。電動滑板車傾倒在任何地方。

Litter bikes. Litter bikes. They've been littering the streets lately. And by littering, I mean littering. The scooter invasion. Wheel-mageddon.

扔垃圾的自行車。亂扔垃圾的自行車。他們最近一直在街上亂扔垃圾。亂扔垃圾，我的意思是亂扔垃圾。踏板車的入侵。輪子的噩夢。

They've got the green ones and the orange ones and it's basically litter.

他們有綠色的，有橙色的，基本都是垃圾。

They are bringing out the worst in some people.

他們把一些人最壞的一面展現出來。

Last September, the city of Santa Monica, California woke up to a surprise: sidewalks

去年9月，聖莫尼卡市。 加利福尼亞州一覺醒來，發現了一個驚喜：人行道。

everywhere were filled with small, electric scooters you could rent by the minute.

到處都是小的，電的 摩托車你可以按分鐘租。

It's not an entirely new idea, Scooters, in some form, have been around forever.

這不是一個全新的想法，Scooters。 以某種形式，一直存在。

And you've long been able to rent them in cities like San Fransisco.

而你早就可以在這裡租下它們 聖弗朗西斯科等城市。

But this company, called Bird, made it irresistibly cheap.

但這家名為 "鳥 "的公司，讓它無法抗拒地 廉價。

And simple.

而且簡單。

All you do is download their app, point your phone at the scooters' QR code, I guess

你所要做的就是下載他們的應用，將你的 手機上的摩托車二維碼，我想

we finally found a use for those, and off you go at about 15 miles an hour.

我們終於找到了這些東西的用武之地，並關閉了 你以每小時15英里的速度前進

They're fast, convenient, if I'm honest, a little bit ridiculous looking, and… a

如果我說實話的話，他們又快又方便。 有點荒唐的樣子，而且... ...

lot of fun.

很多的樂趣。

Unless you're an investor, In which case, scooters are no laughing matter.

除非你是投資人，在這種情況下。 摩托車不是笑談。

Bird became a unicorn, a startup with a billion dollar valuation, faster than Uber, Airbnb,

小鳥成了獨角獸，是一家擁有10億的創業公司。 美元估值，比Uber、Airbnb快。

or Facebook.

或Facebook。

Actually, faster than any company in history.

其實，比歷史上任何一家公司都要快。

And today, still just over a year since it was founded, it's valued at over two billion

而今天，距離它的誕生還只是一年多的時間。 成立時，估值超過20億

dollars,

美元。

about as much as Reddit or 23AndMe.

大約和Reddit或23AndMe一樣多。

Remember, we're talking about scooters.

記住，我們說的是摩托車。

and it's just one of many, including Spin, Lime, who is also a unicorn, JUMP, and about

而這只是其中之一，包括旋。 青檸，她也是一隻獨角獸，JUMP，還有約。

a dozen others.

十幾個人。

Meanwhile, Google, Uber, and Lyft have all invested millions of dollars.

與此同時，谷歌、Uber和Lyft都已經。 投資數百萬美元。

Now, depending on who you ask, these are either:

現在，取決於你問誰，這些都是要麼。

ridiculous numbers for barely 1-year-old startups in a fad industry,

勉強成立1年的初創公司的可笑數字。 在一個時尚的行業裡。

or, smart investments in what's clearly the future of transportation.

或，明智的投資在什麼是明顯的 運輸的未來。

So, which is it?

那麼，是哪個呢？

Are scooters a useful means of mobility or an invasion of our sidewalks?

滑板車是一種有用的代步工具，還是......？ 侵佔我們的人行道？

Let's imagine you live in Seattle, say, an apartment here in the Queen Anne neighborhood.

假設你住在西雅圖，比如說。 在安妮皇后區的一間公寓

And you work downtown, here at Amazon corporate headquarters.

而你在市中心工作，在亞馬遜公司這裡 總部：

You could walk a couple of blocks and take the bus, but it'll cost two dollars and

你可以走幾條街，然後拿 公車，但要花兩美元和

seventy-five cents, or five fifty a day.

七十五分，也就是一天五塊五。

And it'll take at least 20 minutes, which is just as slow as walking.

而且至少需要20分鐘，這... 是和走路一樣的慢。

Biking would be quick and cheap, but then you have to store, lock, and maintain it.

騎車又快又便宜，但是呢？ 你必須儲存、鎖定和維護它。

Plus, no-one wants to arrive at work or school sweaty.

另外，沒有人願意在上班或上學的時候到場 滿頭大汗。

So, scooters are a nice alternative.

所以，踏板車是一個不錯的選擇。

It's faster than walking, Cheaper than the bus, and more convenient than a bike.

比走路快，比坐車便宜。 公車，而且比自行車更方便。

Maybe not revolutionary, but pretty handy.

也許不是革命性的，但相當方便。

Now, let's say, you live here, near Lakewood.

現在，讓我們說，你住在這裡，在湖木附近。

In this case, the bus can drop you off right at work.

在這種情況下，公車可以讓你直接下車 在工作中。

And the beauty of public transportation is that it reduces redundancy.

而公共交通的魅力在於 它減少了冗餘。

Even if nobody commutes the exact same route, there's always going to be a lot of overlap

即使沒有人上下班的路線完全相同。 千篇一律

in the middle,

在中間。

If we all share 90% of our journeys, it's weird that we take 100% of it in… our own

如果我們都能分享90%的旅程，那就是。 奇怪的是，我們把它100％的... 我們自己的。

separate cars.

分車。

So, putting people together saves time, space, and money.

所以，把人放在一起可以節省時間、空間。 和錢。

Here's the thing though: Transit is designed for the average person, but almost no-one

不過問題是這樣的。Transit的設計 對於一般人來說，但幾乎沒有人

is exactly the average person.

正是一般人。

In other words, it's mostly convenient for most people, but totally convenient only for

換句話說，它主要是方便了 大多數人，但完全方便只有

a few.

一些。

Because, if the bus stopped everywhere, it would also… stop being useful.

因為，如果公車到處停，它 也會... 不再有用。

In this example, it's a 24-minute walk from home.

在這個例子中，它是一個24分鐘的步行從 家。

This is The First and Last Mile problem,

這就是 "第一英里 "和 "最後一英里 "的問題。

The hardest and least efficient part of a trip is the beginning and the end - getting

的最難也是效率最低的部分。 旅行的開始和結束--得到

to a transit station, and then, to your final destination.

到一箇中轉站，然後，到你的最終的 目的地：

In most cities, the obvious solution is to walk or bike.

在大多數城市，顯而易見的解決方案是 步行或騎自行車。

But many people just… don't.

但很多人只是... 不知道。

It's too far away, or too inconvenient, so, they drive instead.

太遠了，或者太不方便了。 所以，他們開車代替。

That's probably what you'd end up doing here, even though transit is technically available.

這可能是你最終會做的。 在這裡，即使技術上可以轉運。

Now, whether scooters are ultimately good or bad kinda depends on what exactly they're

現在，滑板車最終是否好 或壞的有點取決於他們到底是什麼。

replacing.

替換。

If people scoot instead of walking or biking, like in the first example, they've lost

如果人們用滑板車代替步行或騎自行車。 像第一個例子一樣，他們已經失去了。

some exercise and gained some convenience.

鍛鍊了身體，獲得了一些便利。

Not a huge win or loss.

勝負不大。

But if scooters replace cars, that's a different story.

但如果摩托車取代汽車，那就不一樣了。 故事。

That would mean less traffic congestion and fewer carbon emissions.

這將意味著減少交通擁堵和 減少碳排放；

Of course, it sounds ridiculous, Even with their 20 or 30-mile range, they aren't really

當然，這聽起來很荒唐，即使是與... 他們的20或30英里的範圍，他們是不是真的。

practical for long trips.

對於長途旅行來說很實用。

But, they don't actually have to be.

但是，他們其實不必如此。

Not directly.

不直接。

If scooters make it easier to get to and from the bus station, you're more likely to take

如果說滑板車能讓人們更方便地往返。 汽車站，你更有可能乘坐

it.

它。

All they need to do is make transit a more desirable option.

他們所需要做的就是讓公車成為一個更多的 理想的選擇。

The effect is fewer cars on the road.

效果是路上的車少了。

That's especially useful in underserved and far away neighborhoods.

這在服務不足的地區特別有用 和遠處的小區。

Here, scooters aren't just a novelty, they're a means to greater mobility.

在這裡，滑板車不僅僅是一個新奇的東西，他們是。 一種提高流動性的手段。

Lime showed this in 2017, when it reported that 40% of riders started or ended their

青檸在2017年的報告中就表現出了這一點。 40%的騎行者開始或結束他們的

bike rides at public transit stations.

在公交車站騎自行車；

All of this is possible because there's always a scooter nearby.

所有這些都是可能的，因為有 附近總有一輛摩托車。

Instead of docks or stations, you pick them up and leave them wherever.

而不是碼頭或車站，你選擇他們 了，並把它們留在任何地方。

Problem is... well, people pick them up and leave them wherever.

問題是... ... 好了，人們拿起他們，並。 把他們留在任何地方。

Technically, you're required to wear a helmet, park out of people's way, and not drive

從技術上講，你必須戴上頭盔。 停車不礙事，開車不礙事

on the sidewalk.

在人行道上。

In practice, ehh, not so much.

在實踐中，嗯，不是那麼回事。

I've yet to see anyone wear a helmet, and many streets just… don't have bike lanes.

我還沒看到有人戴頭盔，而且。 很多街道... 都沒有自行車道。

Companies can explain the rules, but they can't enforce them.

公司可以解釋規則，但他們 不能執行它們。

Sooo… cities aren't the biggest fans.

城市並不是最大的粉絲。

It doesn't help that many of these companies move in to an area before getting permission,

這也無濟於事，這些公司中的許多人 在未獲得許可前進入一個地區；

hoping that by the time they notice, people will have already gotten used to them.

希望到時候人們 會已經習慣了他們。

If this sounds familiar, it's no coincidence.

如果這聽起來很熟悉，那就不是巧合了。

Bird's founder previously worked for Lyft and Uber, who famously used the same strategy.

Bird的創始人此前曾在Lyft工作 和Uber，他們著名的使用了同樣的策略。

This time, cities were ready.

這一次，各城市都做好了準備。

They've already been banned in San Francisco, Beverly Hills, Cambridge, and Columbus.

他們在舊金山已經被禁止了。 比佛利山莊、劍橋和哥倫布。

And, like Uber, there isn't much to set companies apart.

而且，和Uber一樣，並沒有太多的設定。 公司分開。

They all cost the same dollar to start plus 15 cents a minute,

他們的成本都是一樣的美元開始加 每分鐘15美分。

They even have similar sounding 4-letter names.

它們甚至有相似的4個字母的名字。

So, which scooter do people choose?

那麼，大家選擇哪款踏板車呢？

Well, the one that's in front of them.

嗯，就是眼前的這個。

The first app you download will also likely be your last.

你下載的第一個應用程序也可能會 是你最後一次。

Why bother with several?

何必多此一舉呢？

That's why everything is happening so quickly: they saw what happened with Uber.

這就是為什麼一切都發生得如此之快。 他們看到了Uber發生的事情

This is their second chance, and nobody wants to be left out.

這是他們的第二次機會，沒有人願意 要被排除在外。

In China, it happened with bikes.

在中國，這種情況發生在自行車上。

Companies dumped them on every street and corner until there was more bike than sidewalk.

公司把它們傾倒在每個街道和 直到自行車比人行道多。

Demand just couldn't keep up with supply, and now they sit in trash piles so big they'd

需求就是跟不上供給。 現在他們坐在垃圾堆裡，如此之大，他們會。

impress Wall-E.

討好Wall-E。

But with enough market share, the economics are good:

但只要有足夠的市場份額，經濟 是好的。

Most companies use the Xiaomi M365, which, let's assume they buy in bulk for about

大多數公司都使用小米M365，這。 假設他們大量購買，價格大約是多少？

$250.

$250.

Lime says they're used an average of 8 to 12 times a day, so let's say, 10 rides,

Lime說，它們平均使用8到10年。 一天12次，所以說，10次騎行。

at an average of about $3 each.

平均每個3元左右。

Of course, there's also charging.

當然，還有充電。

Anyone can sign up to become a charger, or as Lime calls them, juicers.

任何人都可以註冊成為充電器，或者是... 正如Lime所說的，榨汁機。

At night, they pick them up off the streets, take them home, and plug them in for about

晚上，他們在街上撿到他們。 帶回家去，插上電源，大約

$5-10 a scooter.

5-10元一輛摩托車。

So, we'll subtract seven fifty.

所以，我們要減去七點五。

That means the average scooter makes something like twenty-two fifty a day.

這意味著一般的踏板車使東西 像一天二十二個五。

And pays for itself in under two weeks.

兩週內就能收回成本

Even accounting for things like maintenance and theft, which Lime says affects less than

即使考慮到維護等問題 和盜竊，Lime說這影響不到

1% of its scooters, there's money to be made.

1%的滑板車，就有錢可賺了。 做出的。

But what's most interesting about The Scooter Wars, may have nothing to do with the scooters

但是，最有趣的是關於 "滑板車 "的故事。 戰爭，可能與摩托車無關。

themselves.

自己。

Companies aren't just competing for space on the sidewalk, they're also competing

企業不僅僅是在爭奪空間 在人行道上，他們也在爭奪

for this space - a slot on your home screen.

為這個空間--主螢幕上的一個槽。

This is where Uber starts salivating.

這是Uber開始垂涎的地方。

Anyone with their app can already ride their scooters.

任何人都可以用他們的應用程序騎他們的 摩托車。

It's a built-in advantage.

這是一個內在的優勢。

And if you're already on people's phones, why stop there?

而如果你已經在人家的手機上。 何必呢

There's no reason to be the taxi company or the scooter company when you can be, as

沒理由做計程車公司啊 或滑板車公司的時候，你可以，作為。

Uber's new CEO said, “the Amazon of transportation”.

Uber新任CEO表示，"交通領域的亞馬遜"。

Because a smart business sees itself from the perspective of a customer.

因為一個聰明的企業是從 從客戶的角度出發。

People think about outcomes, not business models.

人們考慮的是結果，而不是業務 模型。

If you want to watch something, you automatically go to YouTube.

如果你想看什麼，你會自動 去YouTube。

If you want to buy something, you go to Amazon.

如果你想買東西，你就去亞馬遜。

And soon, if you want to go somewhere, you open Uber.

很快，如果你想去某個地方，你就會... 開Uber。

Everything else is unnecessary complexity companies convince themselves we care about.

其他都是不必要的複雜 公司說服自己，我們關心的。

We're still in the early days of The Scooter Wars, but there is good reason to get excited.

我們還在 "滑板車 "的早期階段。 戰爭，但有充分的理由讓人興奮。

And the big picture is really about platforms, the relationship between government and private

而大環境其實就是平臺。 官民關係

corporations, and, increasingly, battery technology.

公司，以及越來越多的電池技術。

The future of everything from cars, to scooters, and phones depends on how efficiently we can

未來，從汽車，到摩托車，一切的一切。 和手機，取決於我們如何有效地

store energy.

儲存能量。

And the best way to learn the science behind batteries and energy storage, among other

而瞭解科學背後的最佳途徑是 電池和儲能，以及其他

things, is with today's sponsor, Brilliant.org.

事情，是與今天的贊助商Brilliant.org。

What's great about Brilliant is you actually apply the knowledge as you learn it, rather

輝煌的偉大之處在於，你實際上是 學以致用

than just memorizing formulas.

而不僅僅是記憶公式。

You solve puzzles, analyze graphs, and answer questions to understand the topic on a deeper

你可以解開謎題，分析圖形，回答問題。 問題，以更深層次地理解主題

level.

級別。

I especially like how there are lessons at all different difficulties,

我特別喜歡有課程在 各種不同的困難。

You can start from the very beginning - what an atom looks like, and work your way up to

你可以從最開始--什麼 原子的模樣，然後再往上走。

the science of nuclear energy.

核能科學；

To get started or dive deeper into the world of science, math, and technology, go to brilliant.org/Polymatter

要開始或深入瞭解這個世界 科學、數學和技術，請訪問 brilliant.org/Polymatter。

and sign up for free.

並免費註冊。

The first 200 people to use that link will also get 20% off the annual Premium subscription.

前200名使用該鏈接的人將 還可獲得年度高級訂閱的20%折扣。