an ultra mini-series adventure

- 超迷你係列冒險節目

in 30 minutes and in eight episodes.

- 8集一共30分鐘

Episode Four:

第四集：

The Abyss

深淵

We progress forward until we encounter setbacks.

我們一直前進，直到遭遇挫折

Whether or not we get out of them

我們是否能夠克服這些挫折

and continue forward or spiral downward

是繼續前行抑或是螺旋下墜

depends on whether or not we're willing

完全取決於我們是否願意

to face the failure objectively

客觀地面對失敗

and make the right decisions to

並且做出正確的選擇

turn the loop upward again.

以回歸正軌

Something terrible happened to me in 1982,

1982年發生了一件可怕的事情

when I bet everything on a depression

當我將一切都賭在

that never came.

未曾出現的經濟蕭條上時

(dramatic orchestral music)

1972到1982年這段時間

(birds chirping)

是極端動蕩的時期

The period between 1979 and 1982

對於全球經濟

was one of extreme turbulence.

巿場

For the global economy,

以及我來說都一樣

the markets,

我相信美國經濟

and for me.

以及與其捆綁的世界經濟

And I believed that the U.S. economy,

正在走向災難

with the world economy tied to it,

這個觀點極具爭議性

was headed toward a catastrophe.

我想要大量獲利

This view was extremely controversial.

並且非常公開地承擔了巨大風險，結果我錯了

I wanted the great upside

犯了致命的錯誤

and very publicly took a big risk and was wrong.

短暫的延遲後

Dead wrong.

股市開始了歷時18年的

After a delay,

一個大牛市，也是美國經濟

the stock market began a big bull market

歷史上增長最快時期

that lasted 18 years and the U.S. economy

這段經歷

enjoyed the greatest growth period in its history.

就像棒球棒給我腦袋的重擊

(birds chirping) This experience was

我只好減少虧損

like a blow to my head with a baseball bat.

讓我的公司橋水

I had to cut my losses

留下唯一一名員工：

so that my company, Bridgewater,

那就是我

was left with one employee:

我破產得非常徹底，我不得不向從父親那裡借來

Me.

4000美元以償還我的償務

(door slams shut)

但更糟糕的，我不得不讓

I was so broke, I had to borrow $4,000

我所關心的人離開

from my dad to pay my bills,

我不知道是否應該放棄自己為自己工作的理想

but even worse was having to let go

找一條平穩的道路

the people I cared so much about.

選擇為別人打工

I wondered whether I should give up my dream

找一份需要我每天帶上領帶

of working for myself and play it safe

和通勤上班的工作

by working for someone else in a job

然而我知道

that would require me to put on a tie

減少風險意味著擁有

and commute every day.

不太美好的生活

Though I knew that, for me,

犯下這個錯誤

taking less risk would mean having

犯下如此巨大的錯誤，特別是在眾目睽睽之下

a less great life.

是一種痛苦的恥辱

Being so wrong,

直到今日我依然為自己的

and especially being so publicly wrong,

自大感到驚訝和尷尬

was painfully humbling.

竟然如此自信於

I am still shocked and embarrassed

一個完全錯誤的觀點

by how arrogant I was

雖然我對多錯少

in being totally confident

但我讓一個錯的賭注抹殺了我所有的好

in a totally incorrect view.

我非常努力地思考風險和收益的關係

(dramatic orchestral music)

以及如何管理它們

Though I'd been right much more than I'd been wrong,

但卻找不到好的方法

I had let one bad bet erase all my good ones.

能夠在獲得收益的同時規避

I thought very hard about the relationship

無法承受的風險

between risk and reward and how to manage them,

每個人都會有類似的經歷

but I couldn't see a path forward

也將發生在你身上

that would give me the rewards I wanted

你會失去賴以生存的

without unacceptable risk.

某件東西或某個人

This kind of experience happens to everyone.

或者會遭受可怕的疾病和傷害

It will happen to you.

又或者會親眼目睹你事業的崩塌

You will lose something or someone

你可能會認為你的生活已經毀了

you think you can't live without.

而且沒有辦法前進

Or you will suffer a terrible illness or injury.

但它會成為過去

Or your career will fall apart before your eyes.

我向你保證

You might think that your life is ruined

前方總有一條最好的路

and that there's no way to go forward,

只是你還沒有發現到

but it will pass.

你需要做的只是好好反思，去尋找那條最好的路

I assure you

你必須擁抱自己眼前的現實

that there is always a best path forward

在第五集，我將向你們展示

and you probably just don't see it yet.

上述想法是如何引導我去理解現實的運作方式

You just have to reflect well to find it.

以及最好的應對之策

You have to embrace your reality.

In Episode 5, I'll show you how this

realization drove me to wonder how reality works

and how to best deal with it.