Start listening with the link in the description.

從描述中的鏈接開始聽。

There are some things Apple just loves, design, aluminum, excuse me... and secrecy.

有些東西蘋果就是喜歡，設計。 鋁，對不起... ... 和保密。

To keep a surprise, it hires former FBI agents, searches more bags than TSA, and disguises

為了出其不意，它僱傭了前FBI特工。 比TSA搜查更多的行李，並偽裝成

its products with fake companies like “IP Application Development Ltd” - IPAD.

其產品與 "IP "等假公司 應用開發有限公司" - IPAD。

But there are some things even the world's most profitable company can't hide.

但是，有些事情即使是世界上的人 最賺錢的公司藏不住。

This is a list of companies acquired by Apple.

這是被蘋果收購的公司名單。

Most make perfect sense - Authentec became Touch ID, Siri, well, Siri, But, around two

大多數人都很有意義--Authentec成為了 觸摸ID，Siri，好吧，Siri，但是，大約兩個。

thousand fourteen, you start to see a pattern:

14，你開始看到一個模式。

First, a company creating tiny, super-bright, high-density displays.,

首先，一家公司創造了微小的、超亮的。 高密度顯示器..,

Then one specializing in eye-tracking, an augmented reality headset, and a couple AR

然後是一個專門做眼球追蹤的，一個。 增強現實頭盔，以及幾款AR

software startups.

軟件創業公司。

Plus a handful of patents and job descriptions, all suggesting the same thing: smart, augmented

加上少量的專利和工作說明。 都在暗示著同一件事：智能、增強的

reality glasses.

現實眼鏡。

Directions, the weather, really anything, projected right onto your vision.

方向，天氣，真的什麼都有。 直接投射到你的視野中。

The technology may not seem ready, we may not seem ready, and others have already tried

技術可能看起來還沒有準備好，我們可能 時不我待，人有旦夕

and failed.

並失敗了。

All of which could be said about the iPhone in 2007.

所有這些都可以說是關於iPhone 在2007年。

Of course, acquisitions are just, acquisitions, there are no guarantees, and Apple loves saying

當然，收購只是，收購。 沒有任何保證，蘋果喜歡說

no, it doesn't very often release a new product.

不，它並不經常發佈新的。 產品。

But there's good reason to think smart glasses are coming, Apple is the perfect company to

但我們有充分的理由認為智能眼鏡 正在到來，蘋果是最完美的公司，以

make them, and now is the time to do it.

使他們，現在是時候了。

If you're at all skeptical, well, you should be.

如果你懷疑，那麼，你就應該 是。

Every other week we hear a new version of the same madlib: Blank technology is on the

每隔一週，我們就會聽到一個新版本的 同樣的madlib。空白技術是在

verge of radically disrupting blank industry.

瀕臨徹底顛覆空白行業。

Watch out!

小心！

We're about to reinvent wearable blockchains, or leverage proactive mesh networks, and the

我們即將重塑可穿戴區塊鏈。 或利用主動式網狀網絡，以及。

world will never be the same

今非昔比

The few experts who see where an industry is really going get drowned out by a sea of

少數專家看到一個行業的發展方向 真的會被淹沒在茫茫人海中的

companies promoting their ”world changing” idea.

公司宣傳其 "改變世界 "的 觀念。

Which makes it pretty tough to predict the future.

這使得它很難預測 未來。

So when I say smart glasses, and you say I've heard this before, well, I can't really

所以當我說智能眼鏡的時候，你說我已經。 聞所未聞

blame you.

都怪你。

But there are still ways of separating a hero from a zero.

但英雄還是有分離的方法的 從零開始。

The Gartner Hype Cycle explains why new technology seems to come out of nowhere and then disappear

Gartner公司的炒作週期解釋了為什麼新技術會出現這種情況 忽隱忽現

with no explanation.

沒有任何解釋。

Progress is never a straight line, but it's also not random, it tends to follow a pattern:

進步從來不是一條直線，但它是 也不是隨機的，它往往會遵循一個模式。

First, a very primitive prototype gets some attention.

首先，一個非常原始的原型得到一些 注意，

The media, desperate for clicks, jumps right over its flaws to its best-case scenario,

媒體急於尋求點擊率，就跳了出來。 過其缺陷，以其最好的情況。

10, 15 years from now.

10年，15年後。

And not just in tech, A dietary study with a tiny sample size became the headline “Why

不僅僅是在科技領域，A飲食研究與。 極小的樣本量，卻成了 "為什麼 "的頭條。

You Must Eat Chocolate Daily”.

你每天必須吃巧克力"。

That's what you and I see.

這就是你我所看到的。

So we're inevitably disappointed when we get a glimpse of reality.

所以我們難免會感到失望，當我們 窺見現實。

Then, while we've mostly forgotten about it, real progress is made.

然後，當我們大多忘記了 它，取得了真正的進展。

This is where r/Futurology claims it can cure cancer, This is where you add “Blockchain”

這就是r/Futurology宣稱可以治療的地方。 癌症，這是你添加 "區塊鏈 "的地方。

to the name of your Ice Tea company, boosting its stock 200%, and this is when we're told

到你的冰茶公司的名字，促進了 其股票200％，這時我們被告知。

it's coming in 3-5 years, every…

3-5年內就會到來，每...

3-5 years.

3-5年：

Some technologies die trying to get attention, some are only hype.

有些技術死活要引起注意。 有的只是炒作。

Virtual Reality is somewhere around here, Far enough we know its viable for games and

虛擬現實就在這附近的某個地方。 足夠遠，我們知道它對遊戲和

entertainment.

娛樂。

But while it steals our attention, Augmented Reality quietly moves forward.

但是，在它搶走我們注意力的同時，Augmented 現實悄然前行。

Sure, it's earlier and more uncertain.

當然，它更早，更不確定。

But its potential is much, much bigger.

但它的潛力要大得多，大得多。

And Apple seems to agree:

而蘋果似乎也同意。

It's been a huge focus of the company since iOS 11.

這是該公司的一大重點，自 iOS 11。

Tim Cook even compared its promise to the smartphone.

蒂姆-庫克甚至將其承諾與 智能手機。

I mean, listen to how their website describes it: “Imagine if the line between the virtual

我的意思是，聽聽他們的網站如何描述 它。"想象一下，如果虛擬世界與虛擬世界之間的界限

and the real simply didn't exist.

而真實的根本不存在。

Your classroom could become the cosmos.

你的教室可以成為宇宙。

The past could be as vivid as the present.

過去可以像現在一樣生動。

And this is just the beginning.

而這僅僅是個開始。

Welcome to a new world.”

歡迎來到一個新的世界。"

That's pretty… bold for what's currently just a few games and the ability to sample

這是相當... ... 大膽的什麼是目前的 僅僅是幾場比賽，就能取樣

IKEA furniture.

宜家傢俱。

Of course, all of this is brand new, But even if there are really great apps in a year or

當然，所有這些都是全新的，但即使是... ... 如果在一年或一年內有真正偉大的應用程序。

two,

二，

There's one, huge problem: For it to work, you constantly have to hold up your phone,

有一個巨大的問題：要想成功。 你經常要拿起你的手機。

or dare I say, 13 inch iPad.

或者我敢說，13英寸的iPad。

It's just… awkward.

這只是... 尷尬。

AR is kind of the new drone - incredibly hyped, And sure, it's fun for a minute or two,

AR是一種新的無人機--令人難以置信的催生。 當然，這也是一兩分鐘的樂趣。

but only practical for a few, specific applications.

但只實用於少數特定應用。

Unless, Apple knows this.

除非，蘋果知道這一點。

Why invest so much time and money?

為什麼要投入這麼多時間和金錢？

Because they know what we don't:

因為他們知道我們不知道的事情。

This is just an intermediary between today's phones and tomorrow's glasses.

這只是今天的一箇中介。 手機和明天的眼鏡。

It's a very clever solution to a big problem:

這是一個非常聰明的解決大問題的方法。

If Apple wants to keep its glasses secret, it can't tell developers, and apps won't

如果蘋果想對其眼鏡保密。 它無法告訴開發者，而應用程序也不會。

be ready when it launches.

當它推出時，準備好。

But what if they could have their cake and eat it too?

但如果他們能吃到他們的蛋糕和 也吃？

That's ARKit.

那是ARKit。

Developers can start working now, without knowing what's coming.

開發者現在就可以開始工作，無需 知道什麼是未來。

Meanwhile, Apple collects feedback and improves the technology.

同時，蘋果公司收集反饋意見，改進 的技術。

By the time glasses arrive, they'll have already proven their value:

等到眼鏡到手的時候，它們就已經... 已經證明了它們的價值。

Directions projected right onto the street, Translation of the world around you, Context

方向向右投射到街上。 翻譯你身邊的世界，語境

for your day, and so on.

為你的一天，等等。

Plus, I mean, the product names itself: iSight, EyePod, EyePhone, iGlasses, iWear…come on.

另外，我的意思是，產品名稱本身：iSight。 EyePod、EyePhone、iGlasses、iWear......來吧。

Except - none of this is exclusive to Apple.

除了--這些都不是蘋果獨有的。

In fact, some company called “Google” kinda already tried this.

事實上，一些名為 "谷歌 "的公司 有點已經試過了。

Why would Apple be any more successful?

為什麼蘋果會更成功？

Apple is rarely the first to do something, and glasses would be no exception,

蘋果很少是第一個做某件事的人。 而眼鏡也不會例外。

Microsoft introduced the Hololens in 2015, there's Magic Leap

微軟在2015年推出了Hololens。 神龍見首不見尾

And Intel Vaunt, Snapchat Spectacles, sold from a vending machine somehow uglier than

而英特爾Vaunt，Snapchat Spectacles，則賣出了 從自動售貨機裡拿出來的東西，怎麼說也要比

the app itself, and the Vue, Get it?

應用本身，以及Vue，懂嗎？

Because vue… rhymes with blew, as in they really blew it, naming their company a pun

因為vue... 和blow押韻，就像他們一樣。 真讓人大跌眼鏡，給自己的公司起了個雙關語的名字。

Okay, look at their websight: “your glasses will be able to do more than meets the eye.”

好吧，看看他們的網站："你的眼鏡"。 將能做得更多。"

I See, This is not a business, it's just an excuse to make puns.

我明白了，這不是生意，只是... ... 一個製造雙關語的藉口。

What a sorry sight/site.

多麼遺憾的景象/網站。

But most interesting, is Google Glass, and the million reasons why it failed:

但最有意思的，是谷歌眼鏡，以及 它失敗的一百萬個原因。

Like, to do anything, you tilt your head 30 degrees and speak - OK Glass, discreetly take

就像，做任何事，你都要把頭傾斜30度。 好的，格拉斯，謹慎地拿著。

a photo, or, use a touchpad on the side of your head.

的照片，或者，使用側面的觸摸板。 你的頭。

Both equally terrible.

兩者同樣可怕。

It was expensive, poorly marketed, and lacked a compelling feature.

它的價格昂貴，市場銷售不暢，而且缺乏 一個引人注目的特點。

But, most of all, it just looks… well, let's say there's room for improvement

但是，最重要的是，它只是看起來... ... 好吧，讓我們... 說有餘力

The challenge of all these is just as much design as technology.

所有這些挑戰同樣是 作為技術的設計。

Like, I think this joke writes itself

就像，我覺得這個笑話自己寫的

But if there's any company that can turn a tool you have to wear into an accessory

但是，如果有任何公司，可以把。 工具變配件

you want to, it's Apple.

你想，這是蘋果。

Glass spent years being developed in public.

玻璃花了幾年時間在公共場合開發。

But glasses should be released for quick, mass adoption and acceptance - something Apple

但眼鏡應該快速釋放。 大規模採用和接受--這是蘋果

might know a thing or two about.

可能知道一兩件事情。

They should also be demoed in person - giving Apple's 500 retail stores a huge advantage

他們還應該親自演示--給予 蘋果500家零售店的巨大優勢

over, say Microsoft's hundred.

過，比如微軟的百。

I even know the perfect year to release it, although, we'll see, hindsight is…well,

我甚至知道了發佈它的最佳年份。 雖然，我們會看到，後知後覺是... ... 好。

you get it.

你懂的

But seriously: isn't it just way too early?

但說真的：是不是太早了？

Technology arrives in waves, first, early adopters, then the public, eventually, even

技術的到來是一波一波的，首先，早 採納者，然後是公眾，最終，甚至是

the luddites.

傻瓜。

But between these is an invisible hole, To see it, we have to remember the Hype Cycle.

但在這兩者之間有一個看不見的洞，杜聿明。 看到這裡，我們要記住炒作週期。

Here at peak excitement, it's very easy to get a few users - these are early adopters

在這裡，在興奮的高峰期，它是非常容易的 以獲得一些用戶--這些是早期採用者。

- and they give the illusion of momentum.

- 並給人以動力的錯覺。

The hole is the steep descent that follows - after the hype, getting users is much, much

洞是緊隨其後的陡峭下坡。 - 炒作過後，獲取用戶是很多很多的

harder.

更難。

It takes a lot of kinetic energy for a product to pass this filter.

一個產品需要大量的動能。 以通過這個過濾器。

A journalist will wear any piece of glass with a camera taped to it,

記者會戴上任何一塊玻璃 上面貼著一個攝像頭。

But Apple designs for the masses - only what can survive the gap.

但蘋果為大眾設計的--只需什麼？ 可以在縫隙中生存。

Which creates two challenges for glasses:

這就給眼鏡帶來了兩個挑戰。

First, the technology has to be really good.

首先，技術要真正好。

The Watch proves they can make small batteries last a whole day and design a tiny but mighty

手錶證明他們可以製造小電池 撐了一天，設計了一個小而威武

system-on-a-chip,

片上系統。

It would need a bright, high-density display like microLED - which it's already developing.

它需要一個明亮的、高密度的顯示器。 如microLED--它已經在開發。

But then there's the camera - which brings us to the second challenge: The other kind

但是，還有相機--它帶來的是 第二項挑戰：另一種

of optics:

的光學。

it has to be, well… not creepy.

它必須是，嗯... 不令人毛骨悚然。

Consumers will think Black Mirror, The Circle , Wall-E, and so on.

消費者會認為《黑鏡》、《圈子》。 、Wall-E等。

Even with Apple's focus on privacy, these are very real challenges, and could delay

即使蘋果公司對隱私的重視，這些 是非常真實的挑戰，可能會延後

its release.

其發佈。

But glasses are more than a new product - they're a critical part of Apple's strategy:

但是，眼鏡不僅僅是一種新產品--它們是一種新的產品。 蘋果戰略的重要組成部分。

Moving in the direction of more transparent, more personal technology,

朝著更透明的方向發展。 更多的個人技術。

Because, the smartphone won't last forever.

因為，智能手機不會永遠持續下去。

The only way a company so dependent on one product can survive is to replace itself,

一個公司如此依賴一個人的唯一方法 產品能夠存活下來，就是自己更換。

not wait for someone else to.

不等別人來。

It's a philosophy rooted in the company by Steve Jobs, and one reason I recommend

這是一種植根於公司的理念。 史蒂夫-喬布斯的作品，也是我推薦的原因之一

his official biography.

他的官方傳記。

With Audible, you can listen on your way to school or work, at the gym, or whenever else.

有了Audible，你可以在去往世界各地的路上聽。 學校或工作，在健身房，或其他任何時候。

I started listening to audiobooks in high school and it really changed my habits - It

我從高中開始聽有聲讀物。 學校，它真的改變了我的習慣--它。

turns the necessary but very boring moments of your life into the ones you look forward

把必要但非常無聊的時刻 變成你所期待的

to.

到：

I'm almost always listening to at least one book, and one of my favorite things is

我幾乎總是在聽至少 一本書，而我最喜歡的事情之一是

reading about the CEO of a company I like:

讀到我喜歡的公司的CEO。

For the Grand Theory of Apple, Amazon, and this video, I learned much of the content

對於蘋果、亞馬遜的大理論。 這個視頻，我學到了很多內容

by understanding the person behind the company - their personality, what motivates them,

通過了解公司背後的人 - 他們的個性，是什麼激勵他們。

and how they came to start their business.

以及他們是如何來創業的。

And because this author talked for hours with Steve Jobs and the people around him, it has

因為這位筆者與 史蒂夫-喬布斯和他身邊的人，它有

a lot of detail you just won't find anywhere else.

很多細節你在任何地方都找不到。 其他。

Another is The Everything Store - the story of Jeff Bezos and Amazon.

另一個是萬事通商店--故事 的傑夫-貝佐斯和亞馬遜。

I'm convinced there's no human on earth like Bezos, his mindset is really interesting

我相信地球上沒有人類了 喜歡貝佐斯，他的思維方式真的很有趣。

to hear about.

來聽。

And speaking of Amazon, prime members can listen to Audible for only $4.95 a month for

說到亞馬遜，prime會員可以 收聽Audible，每月僅需4.95美元，可享受

their first three months.

其前三個月。

You can pick any book they have every month, and if you don't like it, and I absolutely

你可以選擇他們每個月的任何一本書。 如果你不喜歡它，我絕對是

love this, you just click return and pick another.

喜歡這個，你只需點擊返回和選擇 另一個。

Go to Audible.com/polymatter or text polymatter to 500500.

前往Audible.com/polymatter或發短信polymatter。 至500500。

Again that's Audible.com/p-o-l-y-m-a-t-t-e-r or text polymatter to 5-0-0-5-0-0.

同樣是Audible.com/p-o-l-y-m-a-t-t-e-r。 或文字多物質到5-0-0-5-0-0。