“it's complicated” now.

「一言難盡」

It's not what we had as recently as 2017 when Trump was threatening to go to war over and

最近兩國的關係不再是川普在 2017 年時不斷威脅要和北韓

over again with North Korea.

開戰的論述

They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.

他們會短兵相接，戰爭規模將是史上從未見過的

Now they are not only on speaking terms but literally sitting in a room with each other.

結果現在兩國不僅開啟對話，甚至一起坐在會議室內

We will have a terrific relationship.

我們的關係將處於極佳狀態

I have no doubt.

絕對是毫無疑問

Chairman Kim and I just signed a joint statement in which he reaffirmed his unwavering commitment

金正恩主席和我剛簽署共同宣言，金主席再次堅持他的承諾

to complete denuclearization.

一定會全面去核化

The problem with this is that Trump and North Korea have very different views about what

但癥結點在於川普和北韓有著迴異的觀點

should be accomplished when you denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

對於朝鮮半島去核化的方式時程皆有不同看法

The US wants North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

美國想要北韓放棄核武

North Korea wants the United States to stop isolating it diplomatically and stop cutting

北韓想要美國停止孤立外交與

it off from international markets.

國際經濟市場

In theory, there is the makings of a deal there.

理論上，這是談判交易內容

For Trump, denuclearization means something called CVID: complete, verifiable, irreversible

對於川普而言，去核化表示 CVID，也就是「全面、可查證的、不可逆的去核」

denuclearization of North Korea.

朝鮮半島必需實現無核化

They give up their nuclear weapons and the US will always be able to make sure that they

北韓會放棄核武，而美國也會持續確保

have gone away.

核武全部被銷毀

However, for North Korea, denuclearization of the Korean peninsula mean something completely

然而，對於北韓來說，朝鮮半島去核化表示

different.

完全不同的意義

It means, sure, North Korea gets rid of its nukes, but the US also withdrawals all its troops

北韓當然會銷毀核武，但是美國也必須從朝鮮半島撤回

from the Korean Peninsula and ends its alliance with South Korea.

所有美軍部隊，並且結束和南韓的同盟關係

This has been unacceptable to every American president in the past.

過去的每任美國總統皆不能接受這種協議

We will be stopping the war games, which will save us a tremendous amount of money, unless

我們會結束戰爭競賽，這將為我們省下鉅大金額

and until we see that the future negotiation is not going along like it should.

除非未來的談判無法如我們當初預期所發展

What seems really good for North Korea is really bad by American standards.

對於北韓極有利的條件卻對美國的停戰標準產生不利的發展

There's just not a great middle ground that could actually roll back North Korea's nuclear

目前為止仍不能找到阻止北韓發展核武的

program.

平衡點

No country with a nuclear program as advanced as North Korea's has ever denuclearized.

如果能像北韓擁有先進的核武發展計畫的國家，沒有一個會想要去核

A 2017 estimate from the Defense Intelligence Agency concluded that North Korea probably

2017 年美國國防情報局調查報告指出，北韓大約

has up to 60 nuclear weapons.

擁有最多 60 個核子武器

It also has ballistic missiles that could potentially hit the American homeland and potentially

北韓亦持有可以摧毀全美國的彈道導彈以及一個小型

a nuclear weapon small enough to fit on one of those rockets.

核子武器，其潛在威脅在於小到可以裝入其中一個火箭裝置

National security adviser John Bolton floated an idea for dealing with North Korea that

美國國安顧問波頓向美國提出和北韓的談判建議

he called,

他稱之為

the Libya model.

利比亞模式

So this is to reference an agreement struck with the Bush administration by then Libyan

該模式是布希政府與利比亞簽署的協議

dictator Muammar Qaddafi to give up his nuclear program.

要求當時利比亞獨裁者格達費放棄發展核武計畫

However, Qaddafi's program was way more limited.

然而，格達費的核武計畫才在萌芽階段

He wasn't really even close to a bomb.

他甚至尚未發展出核彈

And, perhaps more to the point, about eight years after this agreement was struck in 2011

況且，更重要的原因在於該協議實施 8 年後的 2011 年

the US backed an uprising against Qaddafi which killed him.

美國支持反叛軍推翻格達費，並導致其死亡

To Kim, Libya is an example of what happens if you trust the United States too much.

這對於金正恩來說，利比亞模式是血淋淋的例子，警告你不能太相信美國

It's an example of what happens if you give up your nuclear weapons.

也是一個例子告訴你如果放棄核武，會有甚麼後果

The main reason they want them is to deter an attack.

主要原因是他們想要阻止發動攻擊

Ideally, they want to deter any war from starting by making the war seem really scary and really

理想狀態是，他們想要阻止開啟戰爭，所以先讓戰爭看起來很可怕

dangerous and really bloody.

非常危險而且極度血腥

Normalizing relations is something that I would expect to do, I would hope to do, when

關係正常化是我所期盼且衷心希望的

everything is complete.

只要所有因素皆完備

Normalization is a prize from North Korea's point of view.

對北韓來說，關係正常化便代表勝利

It would mean a US embassy in Pyongyang, a North Korean embassy in Washington, ambassadors,

意味著美國使館入駐平壤、北韓使館進駐華盛頓，有著大使

formal diplomatic receptions.

和正式的外交接待

And like I'm saying this and you're probably imagining that sounds ridiculous and you're

當我在說這些話的時候，你可能覺得很荒謬，不過

right.

你是對的

Because it's North Korea.

因為我們說的可是北韓哪

Unwavering commitment to the complete denuclearization

堅持實現全面去核化的承諾

of the Korean peninsula. This is the document

而且是在朝鮮半島上，這便是我們剛簽署的

that we just signed.

協議文件

It's hard to imagine the endgame being some kind of big big deal.

很難想像最後賽局會是這麼大規模的談判

What's more likely is nothing changes or things get worse again.

比較有可能的結局應該是甚麼都沒改變，甚至更可能再度惡化

I think he's going to do these things.

我認為他會做出這些事情

I may be wrong.

我也有可能猜錯

I mean I may stand before you in 6 months and say, 'Hey, I was wrong.'

我的意思是 6 個月後我可能會站在你們面前並對大家說：「我搞錯囉！」

I don't know that I'll ever admit that, but I'll find some kind of an excuse.

雖然我不知道我會不會承認，但我總會找到推託的理由啦！