Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • I want you to imagine

    譯者: 易帆 余 審譯者: Wilde Luo

  • walking into a room,

    我要各位去想像一個場景,

  • a control room with a bunch of people,

    你走進了一個房間,

  • a hundred people, hunched over a desk with little dials,

    這個控制室裡有一群人,

  • and that that control room

    一百多人縮在布置着 各種小儀表盤的辦公桌前,

  • will shape the thoughts and feelings

    而這間控制室,即將影響

  • of a billion people.

    十億多人的想法與感受。

  • This might sound like science fiction,

    這聽起來像是科幻小說,

  • but this actually exists

    但它確實存在,

  • right now, today.

    就在當下,今天。

  • I know because I used to be in one of those control rooms.

    我會知道的原因,是因為 我也曾經是控制室裡的一員。

  • I was a design ethicist at Google,

    我曾經是谷歌的倫理設計學家,

  • where I studied how do you ethically steer people's thoughts?

    我在研究如何在符合道德的前提下, 控制人們的思想。

  • Because what we don't talk about is how the handful of people

    因為我們不會去討論

  • working at a handful of technology companies

    這幾家科技公司裡面的人

  • through their choices will steer what a billion people are thinking today.

    會如何以他們的選擇意志 去控制十幾億人的想法。

  • Because when you pull out your phone

    因為當你拿出手機時,

  • and they design how this works or what's on the feed,

    因為當你拿出手機時,

  • it's scheduling little blocks of time in our minds.

    他們已經設計好如何運作 或者要給你什麼資訊。

  • If you see a notification, it schedules you to have thoughts

    它已經在我們的腦中 安排好很多小時段。

  • that maybe you didn't intend to have.

    如果你看了通知, 這會促使你產生一個

  • If you swipe over that notification,

    你也許不想要的想法。

  • it schedules you into spending a little bit of time

    如果你跳過那個通知,

  • getting sucked into something

    它就會讓你多花點時間

  • that maybe you didn't intend to get sucked into.

    投入到你不想要的東西上,

  • When we talk about technology,

    而你原本也許不想要 花時間在那上面。

  • we tend to talk about it as this blue sky opportunity.

    當我們在談論科技時,

  • It could go any direction.

    我們傾向於把它當作是 湛藍天空的機會。

  • And I want to get serious for a moment

    它可以往任何方向發展。

  • and tell you why it's going in a very specific direction.

    但我想認真地說,

  • Because it's not evolving randomly.

    我要告訴各位, 為什麼科技正在往特定的方向發展。

  • There's a hidden goal driving the direction

    因為科技的演變不是隨機的。

  • of all of the technology we make,

    在我們所有創造的科技背後,

  • and that goal is the race for our attention.

    都隱藏著一個特定目標,

  • Because every news site --

    而那個目標就是 競相爭奪我們的注意力。

  • TED, elections, politicians,

    因為每一個新網頁──

  • games, even meditation apps --

    TED 網頁、選舉網頁、政客網頁、

  • have to compete for one thing,

    遊戲網頁,甚至是冥想的應用軟體──

  • which is our attention,

    都必須競爭同樣的東西,

  • and there's only so much of it.

    也就是我們的注意力,

  • And the best way to get people's attention

    但市場就這麼大。

  • is to know how someone's mind works.

    而要獲得人們注意力的最佳方法,

  • And there's a whole bunch of persuasive techniques

    就是去了解使用者的腦袋 是如何運作的。

  • that I learned in college at a lab called the Persuasive Technology Lab

    有很多說服的技巧,

  • to get people's attention.

    我是從大學的 「說服力技術實驗室」學來的,

  • A simple example is YouTube.

    他們教你如何獲得別人的注意力。

  • YouTube wants to maximize how much time you spend.

    一個簡單的例子就是 YouTube。

  • And so what do they do?

    YouTube 想要最大化 你花費在他們網站的時間。

  • They autoplay the next video.

    那他們會怎麼做?

  • And let's say that works really well.

    他們會幫你自動撥放下一部片。

  • They're getting a little bit more of people's time.

    這一招真的很有效,

  • Well, if you're Netflix, you look at that and say,

    他們也因此得到 使用者更多的時間。

  • well, that's shrinking my market share,

    但,如果你是 Netflix, 你看到了這樣的狀況,你會說,

  • so I'm going to autoplay the next episode.

    不行,這樣會把我的客戶給搶走,

  • But then if you're Facebook,

    所以,我也要自動播放下一集。

  • you say, that's shrinking all of my market share,

    但如果你是 Facebook,

  • so now I have to autoplay all the videos in the newsfeed

    你會說,那這樣我的市場 都被你們瓜分掉了,

  • before waiting for you to click play.

    所以我會在你點擊播放按鍵前

  • So the internet is not evolving at random.

    自動播放所有的影片給你看。

  • The reason it feels like it's sucking us in the way it is

    所以,網際網路的演化不是隨機的。

  • is because of this race for attention.

    它會讓你感覺欲罷不能的原因,

  • We know where this is going.

    就是因為這場注意力的爭奪賽。

  • Technology is not neutral,

    我們知道這會有什麼後果。

  • and it becomes this race to the bottom of the brain stem

    因為科技不是中立的。

  • of who can go lower to get it.

    這個競賽已變成

  • Let me give you an example of Snapchat.

    看誰可以更深地滲入 使用者腦袋的比賽。

  • If you didn't know, Snapchat is the number one way

    我跟各位舉個例子, Snapchat。

  • that teenagers in the United States communicate.

    不知道各位是否了解, Snapchat 目前是

  • So if you're like me, and you use text messages to communicate,

    美國年輕人之間, 最熱門的社交軟體。

  • Snapchat is that for teenagers,

    所以,如果你們和我一樣, 有在用簡訊在與人交流,

  • and there's, like, a hundred million of them that use it.

    應該知道 Snapchat 就是專門 設計給年輕人使用的,

  • And they invented a feature called Snapstreaks,

    差不多將近有一億人在使用它。

  • which shows the number of days in a row

    這家公司發明了一個叫做 Snapstreaks 的特色功能,

  • that two people have communicated with each other.

    它會告訴你,

  • In other words, what they just did

    你跟你朋友兩個人之間, 連續不間斷地聊了幾天。

  • is they gave two people something they don't want to lose.

    換句話說,它們給予的是一種

  • Because if you're a teenager, and you have 150 days in a row,

    兩人都捨不得放棄的東西。

  • you don't want that to go away.

    因為,如果你是年輕人 而有著連續 150 天的聊天紀錄,

  • And so think of the little blocks of time that that schedules in kids' minds.

    你不會想讓紀錄就此中斷的。

  • This isn't theoretical: when kids go on vacation,

    所以想想孩子們 腦袋裡被設定好的時間模式。

  • it's been shown they give their passwords to up to five other friends

    我沒在騙你:已經有人證實, 當孩子在度假時,

  • to keep their Snapstreaks going,

    他們會把密碼給另外五位朋友,

  • even when they can't do it.

    請他們幫忙維持 Snapstreaks 的聊天記錄,

  • And they have, like, 30 of these things,

    就算他們不能用手機。

  • and so they have to get through taking photos of just pictures or walls

    他們差不多有 30 種類似 這樣的東西要維護,

  • or ceilings just to get through their day.

    所以他們每天要東拍拍、西拍拍

  • So it's not even like they're having real conversations.

    拍牆壁、拍天花板, 不然當天他們會渾身不舒服。

  • We have a temptation to think about this

    所以這根本不像是 他們在真正的交流。

  • as, oh, they're just using Snapchat

    我們可能會這麽想,

  • the way we used to gossip on the telephone.

    他們用 Snapchat 的方式

  • It's probably OK.

    就像我們曾經用電話聊八卦一樣。

  • Well, what this misses is that in the 1970s,

    應該還好吧!

  • when you were just gossiping on the telephone,

    但,不同於 1970 年代的是:

  • there wasn't a hundred engineers on the other side of the screen

    當你們用電話聊八卦時,

  • who knew exactly how your psychology worked

    旁邊並沒有數百位工程師在監控你,

  • and orchestrated you into a double bind with each other.

    準確地知道你的心理,

  • Now, if this is making you feel a little bit of outrage,

    並操控著你們倆緊緊地綁在一起。

  • notice that that thought just comes over you.

    如果現在你有點生氣了,

  • Outrage is a really good way also of getting your attention,

    有沒有注意到,你生氣了?

  • because we don't choose outrage.

    因為激怒你也是引起你 注意的方式之一,

  • It happens to us.

    因為就算我們不想生氣,

  • And if you're the Facebook newsfeed,

    它還是會發生。

  • whether you'd want to or not,

    如果你是 Facebook 的新聞推送者,

  • you actually benefit when there's outrage.

    不管你是刻意或是不經意,

  • Because outrage doesn't just schedule a reaction

    人們憤怒的時候,實際上你是受益的。

  • in emotional time, space, for you.

    因為憤怒不僅僅在 情感上讓你有個宣洩的出口,

  • We want to share that outrage with other people.

    更提供了你一個發洩的空間。

  • So we want to hit share and say,

    我們還會想和其他人 分享我們的憤怒。

  • "Can you believe the thing that they said?"

    所以我們會按下分享鍵然後說,

  • And so outrage works really well at getting attention,

    「你敢相信他們說的嗎?」

  • such that if Facebook had a choice between showing you the outrage feed

    所以讓人發怒,可以吸引到注意力,

  • and a calm newsfeed,

    所以,如果 Facebook 可以在

  • they would want to show you the outrage feed,

    向你展示令人憤怒或者 令人平靜的消息之間進行選擇,

  • not because someone consciously chose that,

    他們會選擇向你展示令人憤怒的消息,

  • but because that worked better at getting your attention.

    不是因為有人刻意如此選,

  • And the newsfeed control room is not accountable to us.

    只是因為這樣可以讓你 更注意到他們。

  • It's only accountable to maximizing attention.

    新聞控制室不對我們負責。

  • It's also accountable,

    它只對最大化注意力負責。

  • because of the business model of advertising,

    它也要向──

  • for anybody who can pay the most to actually walk into the control room

    因為商業模式的關係,

  • and say, "That group over there,

    它也要向走進控制室 付廣告費的人負責,

  • I want to schedule these thoughts into their minds."

    他們會說,「那個團體在那邊,

  • So you can target,

    我想要灌輸一些想法到他們腦裡。」

  • you can precisely target a lie

    所以你可以定位,

  • directly to the people who are most susceptible.

    你可以準確直接定位到

  • And because this is profitable, it's only going to get worse.

    那些最容易被受到影響的人。

  • So I'm here today

    因為這是有利可圖的, 所以狀況只會越來越糟。

  • because the costs are so obvious.

    所以我今天來到這裡的原因,

  • I don't know a more urgent problem than this,

    是因為這件事的代價太高了。

  • because this problem is underneath all other problems.

    我認為沒有其它事 比這問題還要緊急,

  • It's not just taking away our agency

    因為其它所有問題的背後, 都與這個問題有關。

  • to spend our attention and live the lives that we want,

    它不僅剝奪我們的自主權,

  • it's changing the way that we have our conversations,

    還浪費我們的注意力, 影響我們的生活方式。

  • it's changing our democracy,

    也改變了我們的交流方式,

  • and it's changing our ability to have the conversations

    改變了我們的民主制度,

  • and relationships we want with each other.

    而且還改變了我們 想要與他人交流、

  • And it affects everyone,

    維持關係的能力。

  • because a billion people have one of these in their pocket.

    這會影響到每一個人,

  • So how do we fix this?

    因為十幾億人口的口袋裡 都有一台這個東西。

  • We need to make three radical changes

    所以我們要如何修復這個問題?

  • to technology and to our society.

    我們需要對科技和我們的社會

  • The first is we need to acknowledge that we are persuadable.

    做三大激進的改變。

  • Once you start understanding

    首先,我們需要了解 我們是會被說服的。

  • that your mind can be scheduled into having little thoughts

    一旦你了解

  • or little blocks of time that you didn't choose,

    人腦可以被有計劃性地 注入一些思想

  • wouldn't we want to use that understanding

    或被占用掉一些時間時,

  • and protect against the way that that happens?

    我們難道不會利用這點

  • I think we need to see ourselves fundamentally in a new way.

    來防止這樣的事發生嗎?

  • It's almost like a new period of human history,

    我認為我們需要以全新的方式審視自己。

  • like the Enlightenment,

    就像是人類歷史上新的篇章,

  • but almost a kind of self-aware Enlightenment,

    就像啟蒙運動,

  • that we can be persuaded,

    但是是自覺性的啟蒙運動,

  • and there might be something we want to protect.

    瞭解到我們是會被說服的,

  • The second is we need new models and accountability systems

    並意識到我們也有想要保護的東西。

  • so that as the world gets better and more and more persuasive over time --

    第二點是我們需要新的 模式和責任系統,

  • because it's only going to get more persuasive --

    如此,當世界變得越來越好、 我們越來越容易被說服時──

  • that the people in those control rooms

    因為它只會變得更有說服力──

  • are accountable and transparent to what we want.

    這樣在控制室裡的那些人

  • The only form of ethical persuasion that exists

    才會對我們想要的東西負責 並把它透明化。

  • is when the goals of the persuader

    道德說服存在的唯一前提就是:

  • are aligned with the goals of the persuadee.

    只有當說服者的目標

  • And that involves questioning big things, like the business model of advertising.

    和被說服者的目標是一致時才存在。

  • Lastly,

    而這涉及到對大型事件的質疑, 像是廣告的商業模式。

  • we need a design renaissance,

    最後,

  • because once you have this view of human nature,

    我們需要一個經過設計的 科技文藝復興,

  • that you can steer the timelines of a billion people --

    因為一旦你對人性本質 有一定的了解,

  • just imagine, there's people who have some desire

    那你就可以控制十億人的時間軸──

  • about what they want to do and what they want to be thinking

    想像一下,人都會有一些慾望,

  • and what they want to be feeling and how they want to be informed,

    會有想做的事、想思考的事、

  • and we're all just tugged into these other directions.

    想感受的事物、想了解的事物,

  • And you have a billion people just tugged into all these different directions.

    而我們卻只能被引導到其它方向。

  • Well, imagine an entire design renaissance

    十億人只會被引導到這些不同的方向。

  • that tried to orchestrate the exact and most empowering

    所以,試想一下 一個完整的文藝復興設計,

  • time-well-spent way for those timelines to happen.

    可以幫助我們引導至 正確的、有自主性的、

  • And that would involve two things:

    時間分配良好的路上。

  • one would be protecting against the timelines

    那就得包含兩件事:

  • that we don't want to be experiencing,

    一是我們要保護自己的時間軸

  • the thoughts that we wouldn't want to be happening,

    不被支配到不想經歷的事情上、

  • so that when that ding happens, not having the ding that sends us away;

    不去產生我們不想要的想法,

  • and the second would be empowering us to live out the timeline that we want.

    如此,當簡訊的提醒聲響起時, 我們就不會被牽著鼻子走;

  • So let me give you a concrete example.

    二是要讓我們能活出 自己想要的時光。

  • Today, let's say your friend cancels dinner on you,

    我給各位舉個例子。

  • and you are feeling a little bit lonely.

    比如說,今天你朋友取消了 與你的晚餐約會,

  • And so what do you do in that moment?

    所以你感到有點寂寞。

  • You open up Facebook.

    那當下你會做甚麼?

  • And in that moment,

    你會打開 Facebook。

  • the designers in the control room want to schedule exactly one thing,

    而就在那一刻,

  • which is to maximize how much time you spend on the screen.

    控制室裡的設計者 想要準確地規劃一件事,

  • Now, instead, imagine if those designers created a different timeline

    那就是最大化你盯著螢幕的時間。

  • that was the easiest way, using all of their data,

    現在,反過來,想像一下, 是否這些設計師可以創造出一個

  • to actually help you get out with the people that you care about?

    不一樣的時間軸,以最簡單的方法、 利用他們所有的數據,

  • Just think, alleviating all loneliness in society,

    幫你準確地約出你關心的人?

  • if that was the timeline that Facebook wanted to make possible for people.

    試想一下,消除社會中所有的寂寞,

  • Or imagine a different conversation.

    這樣的時間軸不就是 Facebook 想要為我們實現的嗎?

  • Let's say you wanted to post something supercontroversial on Facebook,

    或試想另一個對話。

  • which is a really important thing to be able to do,

    比方說你想要在 Facebook 上 發表備受爭議的言論,

  • to talk about controversial topics.

    你覺得這個爭議性話題很重要,

  • And right now, when there's that big comment box,

    需要被拿出來討論。

  • it's almost asking you, what key do you want to type?

    現在,有一個很大的留言區,

  • In other words, it's scheduling a little timeline of things

    它就像是在問你, 你想要輸入什麽東西?

  • you're going to continue to do on the screen.

    換句話說,它正在安排一些時間軸,

  • And imagine instead that there was another button there saying,

    好讓你可以繼續待在螢幕上。

  • what would be most time well spent for you?

    試想如果有另一個按鈕跳出來說,

  • And you click "host a dinner."

    你想怎麼安排你的時間?

  • And right there underneath the item it said,

    然後你點選,「舉辦一個晚餐的聚會」。

  • "Who wants to RSVP for the dinner?"

    然後,底下就會跳出一個,

  • And so you'd still have a conversation about something controversial,

    「有誰想要聚餐,請盡速回覆」?

  • but you'd be having it in the most empowering place on your timeline,

    所以,你的爭議性話題 可以被繼續討論,

  • which would be at home that night with a bunch of a friends over

    而且可以放置在你時間軸上 最顯眼的位置,

  • to talk about it.

    那天晚上,你就可以邀請到一堆朋友

  • So imagine we're running, like, a find and replace

    來你家裡晚餐並討論這個話題。

  • on all of the timelines that are currently steering us

    想像我們正在賽跑, 想盡快找到並替換掉

  • towards more and more screen time persuasively

    所有那些正在促使我們

  • and replacing all of those timelines

    花越來越多的時間在螢幕上的時間軸,

  • with what do we want in our lives.

    並盡快把這些時間軸

  • It doesn't have to be this way.

    用我們在生活中想做的事情替代掉。

  • Instead of handicapping our attention,

    真的不須要這樣。

  • imagine if we used all of this data and all of this power

    不需要癱瘓我們的注意力,

  • and this new view of human nature

    試想如果我們利用所有這些數據和能力,

  • to give us a superhuman ability to focus

    加上對人性本質的全新認識,

  • and a superhuman ability to put our attention to what we cared about

    來讓我們擁有超人般的注意力、

  • and a superhuman ability to have the conversations

    讓我們更關心我們在乎的事情、

  • that we need to have for democracy.

    讓我們擁有超人般的能力,

  • The most complex challenges in the world

    來進行民主所需要的互動交流。

  • require not just us to use our attention individually.

    世界上最複雜的挑戰,

  • They require us to use our attention and coordinate it together.

    不僅需要我們每個人的注意力。

  • Climate change is going to require that a lot of people

    也需要我們的同心協力才能克服。

  • are being able to coordinate their attention

    地球暖化議題需要大家

  • in the most empowering way together.

    一起使用最有力的方式

  • And imagine creating a superhuman ability to do that.

    將所有人的注意力整合起來。

  • Sometimes the world's most pressing and important problems

    試想如果有了這樣的超人能力會怎樣。

  • are not these hypothetical future things that we could create in the future.

    有時世界上最要緊、最重要的問題

  • Sometimes the most pressing problems

    不是未來我們可以創造的 假設性事物。

  • are the ones that are right underneath our noses,

    有時最要緊的問題,

  • the things that are already directing a billion people's thoughts.

    就是我們眼前的問題,

  • And maybe instead of getting excited about the new augmented reality

    已經在影響著十億人思想的事情。

  • and virtual reality and these cool things that could happen,

    與其花時間對擴增實境感到興奮、

  • which are going to be susceptible to the same race for attention,

    對虛擬實境這類酷炫產品感到興奮──

  • if we could fix the race for attention

    對這些注意力競賽的產品感到興奮──

  • on the thing that's already in a billion people's pockets.

    不如把時間放在修正注意力競賽上,

  • Maybe instead of getting excited

    修正十億人口袋裡的那台機器上。

  • about the most exciting new cool fancy education apps,

    與其花時間對刺激、

  • we could fix the way kids' minds are getting manipulated

    酷炫的教育軟體感到興奮,