One in four people on Earth will be African at that point,

到 2050 年，非洲的人口會加倍。

and this is both really exciting and daunting all at once.

到那時，在地球上， 每四個人中就有一個非洲人，

It's really exciting because, for the first time in the modern era,

這個狀況既讓人興奮又讓人怯步。

there will be enough Africans on the Earth to bully everybody else.

很讓人興奮的原因是， 這是地球上第一次在摩登時代

(Laughter)

有足夠的非洲人來霸凌所有其他人。

I'm only kidding.

（笑聲）

But it's daunting, because we're going to have to have economies

我只是開玩笑。

that can sustain this population growth,

但之所以讓人怯步， 是因為我們必須要有

and many of the people are going to be very young.

能夠維持這種人口成長的經濟，

Now most of governments in Africa have a plan for this economic growth --

且那時許多人會是很年輕的人。

in Kenya, we call ours Vision2030 --

現在非洲大部分的政府 都有經濟成長的因應計畫，

and they're all predicated on industrialization.

我們肯亞的計畫叫「遠景 2030」。

The thing is, though, that the world

這些計畫都是根據 工業化的程度所做出來的預測。

is going through the Fourth Industrial Revolution right now,

不過要考慮的是

which means that there's a merger

現在世界正在經歷第四次工業革命，

of the physical, cyber, and biological worlds.

這表示，物理、網路、

It means that because of massive interconnectivity

以及生物世界會被合併。

and the availability of artificial intelligence and robotics,

意思是，會因為有大量的

many of the jobs that we know and are used to right now

人工智慧與機器人的 相互連結與應用產生，

won't exist in the future.

許多我們現在所知道且習慣的工作，

So the challenge is a lot greater, in many ways,

在未來會消失。

than it even was when Asia was industrializing, for example.

所以，在許多層面上，挑戰都更大，

To add to this, one of the kinds of person that you need

大於比如當初亞洲工業化時的挑戰。

for industrialization is an engineer,

此外，工業化所需要的其中一種人

and they're really in short supply on the continent.

就是工程師，

If you compare, for example, the number of engineers

而在非洲大陸上，很缺乏工程師。

that those same Asian countries had

比如，你如果去比較數十年前

a couple of decades ago when they were industrializing,

亞洲國家工業化時代的工程師人數，

we fall far short.

我們還差一大截。

And I've taught for a while,

我已經教學一陣子了，

and many of the students who are studying engineering

許多攻讀工程的學生

end up actually working in auditing firms and banks,

最後卻是在查帳公司或銀行工作，

and many of them spend half their time doing accounting and so on

他們當中很多人用大半的時間

as they're preparing.

在準備從事會計等相關工作。

Now, I was fortunate enough to do my undergrad and postgrad education

我很幸運，在英國和美國 接受大學和研究所教育，

in the UK and the US, in countries, environments,

在這些國家、環境中，

where there was all the equipment that you required,

所有你需要的東西都有了，

all the sophistication in the systems,

體制也都夠精密，

and then I worked for about three years in Japan

接著我在日本工作了約三年，

doing R&D for a large firm.

為一間大公司做研發。

And so I was very used to having good equipment,

所以我很習慣有好的必要配備，

and went back home

之後我回到家鄉，

and joined the Faculty of Engineering at the University of Nairobi,

加入奈洛比大學工程系的教職員，

wanting to contribute and be on the continent.

我想有所貢獻並留在非洲大陸。

And I quickly found I was really quite useless,

我很快就發現，我其實無法發揮，

because there wasn't all the equipment that I had become accustomed to available.

因為我無法取得我以前視為 理所當然的那些必要配備。

And I was teaching students who I would find very bright ideas in their minds

我教的學生腦中有非常聰明的點子，

and they'd be presenting things that I knew

從他們簡報的內容

if only we had sufficient equipment,

我知道若我們有足夠的必要配備，

they'd be able to really contribute to the challenge of industrialization.

這些點子一定能對工業化 遇到的困難有所貢獻。

So I kind of had to change hats, and became quite entrepreneurial

所以我得要改變角色，變成企業家，

and started looking for money to buy the equipment that we required.

開始尋找金錢來源 以購買我們需要的配備。

And I heard about a concept out of MIT, called the Fab Labs.

我從麻省理工學院聽到 一個概念，叫「fab labs」，

These are digital fabrication labs

是數位製造實驗室，

that allow, in a rather small space with not very expensive equipment,

在一個比較小的空間中， 用不太貴的設備，

people to have access to these tools

讓人們能夠取用這些工具，

to be able to make almost anything,

幾乎想要做什麼都可以，

as the slogan goes.

就如同它的標語。

And so I was able to convince a government official

所以，我說服了一位政府官員，

to buy one of these for the university where I was teaching.

為我任教的大學買了一套。

And immediately, we had wonderful results.

我們立即就有很好的結果。

We saw all kinds of innovations coming through,

我們看到各種創新嶄露出來，

and for the first time in this context at the university,

在我們這所大學的環境中，

engineering students from different disciplines

來自不同學科的工程學生第一次

were doing the lab and practical exercises together in the same space.

能在同一個空間一起 做實驗和實作練習。

Normally, they'd be siloed.

通常他們都是獨立作業的。

And not just that, but students who weren't engineers at all

不僅如此，還有完全 與工程無關的學生

were also working in the same place,

也在使用同一個空間，

and non-students, people who had nothing to do with the university,

還有與大學完全無關的非學生人士

were also coming into this space.

也會來用這個空間。

So you had this rich mix of people,

所以這裡有各式各樣的人，

people who think differently from one another,

每個人的想法都不同，

and this always is really good for innovation.

對於創新而言，這是很好的現象。

I was really proud of what we were seeing.

對此我感到十分驕傲。

So you can imagine my surprise

所以，你們可以想像，

when one day the dean of engineering came and said to me,

有天工學院院長來找我時 我有多驚訝，他說：

"Kamau, the students who spend most of the time in the Fab Lab

「卡冒，把大部分時間花在 Fab Lab 的那些學生

are failing their exams."

考試沒及格。」

I said, "What do you mean?"

我說：「什麼意思？」

And I looked into it, and he was right,

接著我去探究此事，他說的沒錯，

and the reason they were failing

他們沒及格的原因，

is that they'd honed their skills so well in certain things

他們在某些事物上把 他們的技能鍛鍊得非常好，

that they were going out into the city and offering services for money.

讓他們能夠到外地城市 提供服務來賺錢。

So they were making money --

他們在賺錢，

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

and they therefore weren't focusing on their studies.

因此他們不會把專注力放在學業上。

And I thought, what a good problem to have.

我心想，我們遇到的問題好棒啊。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Don't quote me on that. I'm an academician.

別引述我的話。我是學者。

So we needed to scale this,

所以，我們得要做些規模調整，

and at the university, things were a bit too bureaucratic,

但在大學裡做事總會遇到官僚問題，

and so I moved out and I hooked up with people who, in Nairobi,

所以我搬出去了， 和奈洛比的人搭上線，

were providing spaces for IT experts

他們提供空間給資訊科技專家，

to share fast internet and things like that.

共享快速網路這類東西。

And some of these places are really quite famous.

這些地方當中有些是相當知名的。

They've made Kenya famous for IT.

它們讓肯亞因為資訊科技而聞名。

And together we set up a space which we are setting up right now.

我們一起打造一個空間， 目前正在進行中。

We've moved from where we were.

我們從原地方搬出來。

We are in a much larger space,

新的空間大了許多，

and we're sort of making available a wide range of equipment,

我們把各種設備都開放出來，

including the digital fabrication tools that I mentioned,

包括我之前提到的數位製造工具，

and analog tools,

還有類比開發工具，

to anybody really, on a membership basis.

任何人只要加入會員即可使用。

It's a bit like a gym, so you come in, you pay,

它有點像健身房，你來，付了錢，

you get taught how to use the equipment,

就會教你如何用這些設備，

and then you're set free to innovate and do whatever it is that you want,

然後你就可以自由去創新， 做任何你想要做的，

and you don't have to be an engineer, necessarily.

你不一定要是個工程師。

And some of the people in the space are setting up a small company.

這空間中的一些人一起成立小公司，

They just need a space at a desk,

他們只需要一張桌子的空間，

and so we provide that at a fee,

所以我們就收費提供；

and others take up bigger spaces and are able to set up their offices.

其他人需要更大的空間設立辦公室。

They're further along.

他們有所進展。

Maybe their company has been running for a certain period of time.

也許他們的公司 已經營運了一段時間。

And so we're able to accommodate all of this

所以我們能夠在一個

in an innovation space that is really quite active.

相當積極的創新空間中提供這一切。

What you're seeing in this image over here is Douglas,

這張照片上的是道格拉斯，

and Douglas is an electrical engineer,

道格拉斯是電機工程師，

one of the people who was really active in the Fab Lab.

他是在 Fab Lab 中 非常活躍的人之一。

I'm pretty sure he passed his exams.

我很確定他考試及格了。

And the image on the top left is a copper sheet.

左上角的圖片是一張銅片。

And he designed a circuit that the client came to him and said,

他是設計電路的， 客戶會去找他然後說：

"I need this circuit for a pay-as-you-go system."

「我需要這個電路，做預付卡充值系統。」

And so this is a model for business

所以，這是一個商業模型，

that's made accessibility to goods and services for very poor people

讓非常貧窮的人能用更容易的 方式來取得商品和服務，

really much easier, because they're able to pay a little bit,

因為他們能夠一次支付一點點，

like a dollar a day, for example,

比如一天支付一塊錢，

for a specific service.

來取得某種服務。

And so this company wanted to pilot a new idea that they had,

所以，這間公司想要 測試他們的一個新點子，

and so they just needed 50 circuits,

所以，他們只需要五十組電路，

so they hired him to make them,

他們僱用他來做這些電路，

and what you're seeing him doing there is,

你們在照片中看到他在做的，

he's able to design on the computer what the circuit will be

他可以在用電腦上設計電路圖，

and then transfer it to an etching process --

然後把它傳送到蝕刻機，

that's the image on the top right --

就是右上角的圖片，

and then populate the board using this robot.

然後用這個機器人來做板上組裝。

And so what would normally take him maybe a day or something to solder by hand,

如果他用手焊接， 正常可能要一天的時間，

he can do in a few minutes using this machine.

用這台機器，只要幾分鐘就能完成。

So he was able to complete the entire order within Gearbox,

所以，他在 Gearbox 中 就能完成整張訂單，

and this is really important,

這點非常重要，

because if it wasn't for what we provided right now,

因為，要不是有我們 現在提供的這些東西，

he would have had to have hired a company in China to do this,

他就得要僱用一間 在中國的公司來做這件事，

and because it's such a small order, it would have taken a long time.

因為這張訂單很小， 會要花很長的時間。

It would be a small company,

接單的會是家小公司，

because big companies wouldn't take small orders,

因為大公司不會接小訂單，

and even then, if they got a bigger order,

儘管如此，若這間小公司接到

they'd bump him off in favor of that.

更大的訂單，就會棄他而去。

And there's language problems and so on,

另外還有語言問題等等，

so being able to do it in country is really very important,

所以，能在國內製作非常重要，

and of course piloting as a phase within the progress of the business idea

當然，在商業點子的發展過程中， 測試階段是極度重要的，

is extremely important, because you can go back and make corrections and so on.

因為你能夠回頭再去做修正等等。

In this image -- Thank you.

在這張圖中——謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

In this image you see on the top left,

在這張圖中，請看左上角，

what you're looking at is a 3D render of a digital fabrication machine.

你們所看到的，是一台 3D 的數位製造研磨機器。

In this instance, it doubles as a plasma cutter

這個例子同時是等離子切割機

and also a wood router.

和木工雕刻機。

And so the plasma cutter makes possible the cutting of plate and sheet metal,

所以，有等離子切割機 就可以切割金屬板及金屬片，

and basically, you make a design on the computer

基本上，你在電腦上做設計，

and send it over to the machine,

把它送到這台機器，

and then quickly and precisely, it will cut the shapes you want.

它接著就會快速且精確地 切出你要的形狀。

But in this machine,

但在這台機器中，

you can also change the plasma cutter and put on a spindle,

你也可以改變等離子 切割機，只要裝上一個軸承，

and then you can carve wood as well.

你就能夠雕刻木頭了。

So this was designed by my Head of Engineering.

這是由我的工程組長所設計的。

His name is Wachira,

他的名字叫瓦希拉，

and when I hired him about two years ago,

我兩年前僱用他時，

I asked him, "Just give me two years,

我這樣請求他：「給我兩年，

and by the time you've trained a lot of people

到時後，你就已經訓練出了很多人，

so that we have good staff under you,

你底下就會有很好的組員，

then you can move out and become a good story for us."

接著你就可以出去創業， 為我們成為一個好的故事。」

And that's exactly what's just happened.

而實際發生的狀況就是這樣。

He's got two types of customers.

他有兩種類型的客人。

The higher-tier customer

比較高階層的客人

is a company that's actually using his machine

是一間公司，用他的機器

to cut sheet metal for Isuzu truck fabrication in Nairobi,

在奈洛比為合眾汽車 切割卡車用的金屬板，

which is being done by General Motors.

之前都是通用汽車公司製造的。

So we're really proud to be able to say

所以我們可以很驕傲的說，

that we have an original equipment manufacturer in Nairobi

我們在奈洛比有一間 原廠設備製造商，

that's provided what's effectively an industrial robot

這台工業等級的機器人，

to supply parts for General Motors.

能提供零件給通用汽車公司。

Now this is really important --

這點非常重要，

(Applause)

（掌聲）

and it's really important because the population growth being what it is,

這點非常重要，因為已經可以看到 未來的人口成長狀況，

a lot of very large companies are looking very closely

許多大公司都非常關注

at the market that's developing in Africa.

非洲市場的發展。

So in Kenya right now, we have Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault,

所以，現在在肯亞就有 福斯、寶獅，和雷諾汽車，

we have Mercedes doing lorries,

還有賓士在做大型運貨卡車，

and we've also got Toyota, they've been there a long time.

我們還有豐田， 他們在這裡已經很久了。

And these are all manufacturers planning to assemble vehicles

這些都是製造商， 打算要在這個國家組裝汽車，

and in the future, to manufacture in the country.

在未來還要製造汽車。

Many of them are planning to train lots of people that they'd hire,

他們之中有許多 計劃要培訓他們所僱用的很多人，

and that's really important for the economy,

這對經濟是很重要的，

but when the magic really happens,

但魔法真正發生的時候，

when these companies begin to buy their parts for the vehicles

是這些公司開始向當地的公司

from local companies,

購買他們所需的汽車零件，

so supply chain development is something that's very important

所以，供應鏈的發展相當重要，

for us to be able to pivot and to have very productive economies,

讓我們能夠成為中樞， 並擁有非常具生產力的經濟，

and that's something we're focused on at our space.

這也是我們實驗室 目前正在聚焦的重點。

This other image shows another class of customer that he has.

另一張圖是他的另一類客人。

On the top left,

在左上的圖中，

you have these people who are actually using very crude tools

這些人用非常簡陋的工具

to work metal and wood.

在處理金屬和木頭。

And Kenya has a population of about 44 million people.

肯亞的人口約是 4400 萬人。

The work force is about 13 million,

勞動力約是 1300 萬人，

and about 80 to 90 percent of those are in the informal sector.

其中有 80~90% 都在非正式部門。

And what you're seeing in the image at the top left over there

在左上圖所看到的，

is very typical of semi-skilled artisans

就是非常典型的半熟練工匠，

who are making products for the marketplace

他們在為市場製造產品，

that are really crude.

這些工具非常簡陋。

Their production rate is very slow.

他們生產的速度非常緩慢。

The quality of the product isn't high.

產品的品質也不高。

And so we've teamed Wachira up with a bank,

所以我們讓瓦希拉與一間銀行合作，

and the bank is paying him to train people from this sector

銀行付錢給他訓練這部門的人，

on how to use this industrial robot.

教他們使用這個工業機器人。

And the result is that some of them

結果是，當中有些人

are going to be able to get loans to buy the machine for themselves.

能自己透過貸款來買這台機器。

Others will be able to go to centers where they can carry their material,

其他人則是可以把自己的 素材帶到中心去，

get the design done,

完成設計，

and take the materials back that have been made really, really fast

然後帶回非常非常快就做出的材料，

and assemble them in their own spaces.

在他們自己的地方做組裝。

So somebody making a gate, for example, out of metal,

所以，比如，有人要用金屬做閘門，

may take a week to make just one gate,

光一扇閘門可能就要花一週，