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  • Congratulations.

    譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

  • By being here,

    恭喜。

  • listening, alive,

    能在這裡,

  • a member of a growing species,

    能夠聽,能活著,

  • you are one of history's greatest winners --

    身為一個不斷成長之物種的一員,

  • the culmination of a success story four billion years in the making.

    你就是歷史上最偉大的贏家之一,

  • You are life's one percent.

    花了四十億年形成之成功故事高點。

  • The losers,

    你是生命的前 1%。

  • the 99 percent of species who have ever lived,

    輸家們,

  • are dead --

    其餘 99% 曾經存在過的物種

  • killed by fire, flood, asteroids,

    都死了;

  • predation, starvation, ice, heat

    死因包括大火、洪水、小行星、

  • and the cold math of natural selection.

    掠食、饑荒、冰、熱,

  • Your ancestors,

    以及物競天擇的冷酷數學。

  • back to the earliest fishes,

    你們的祖先,

  • overcame all these challenges.

    回推到最早的魚類,

  • You are here because of golden opportunities

    克服了各種挑戰。

  • made possible by mass extinction.

    你們會在這裡,

  • (Laughter)

    是因為大滅絕所帶來的黃金機會。

  • It's true.

    (笑聲)

  • The same is true of your co-winners and relatives.

    是真的。

  • The 34,000 kinds of fishes.

    對你的共同贏家、 親戚們而言也是如此:

  • How did we all get so lucky?

    三萬四千種魚類。

  • Will we continue to win?

    我們怎麼會這麼幸運?

  • I am a fish paleobiologist who uses big data --

    我們能繼續贏下去嗎?

  • the fossil record --

    我是魚類的古生物學家,

  • to study how some species win and others lose.

    用大數據,化石記錄,

  • The living can't tell us;

    來研究為什麼有些物種能贏, 其他的則輸了。

  • they know nothing but winning.

    還活著的無法告訴我們;

  • So, we must speak with the dead.

    他們對「贏」一無所知。

  • How do we make dead fishes talk?

    所以我們必須與已死的對話。

  • Museums contain multitudes of beautiful fish fossils,

    我們要如何讓死魚說話?

  • but their real beauty emerges

    博物館有許多美麗的魚化石,

  • when combined with the larger number of ugly, broken fossils,

    但要讓它們真正的美浮現,

  • and reduced to ones and zeros.

    要把它們與更多醜陋、 破碎的化石結合,

  • I can trawl a 500-million-year database for evolutionary patterns.

    然後再縮減為一和零。

  • For example,

    我可以在一個五億年 資料庫中搜尋演化模式。

  • fish forms can be captured by coordinates

    比如,

  • and transformed to reveal major pathways of change

    魚的形式可以用座標來表示,

  • and trends through time.

    然後轉換來揭示

  • Here is the story of the winners and losers

    隨時間發生的主要改變路徑和趨勢。

  • of just one pivotal event I discovered using fossil data.

    以下是個關於贏家和輸家的 關鍵事件的故事,

  • Let's travel back 360 million years --

    是我用化石資料發現的。

  • six times as long ago as the last dinosaur --

    讓我們回到 3.6 億年前──

  • to the Devonian period;

    比最後一隻恐龍在世的時間 還要往回推六倍的時間──

  • a strange world.

    回到泥盆紀;

  • Armored predators with razor-edge jaws dominated

    一個奇怪的世界。

  • alongside huge fishes with arm bones in their fins.

    下巴有剃刀邊緣的武裝掠食者

  • Crab-like fishes scuttled across the sea floor.

    和魚鰭中有手臂骨的大魚是主宰者。

  • The few ray-fin relatives of salmon and tuna

    像螃蟹的魚類沉在海底。

  • cowered at the bottom of the food chain.

    鮭魚和鮪魚的少數輻鰭親戚

  • The few early sharks lived offshore in fear.

    畏縮地待在食物鏈的最底層。

  • Your few four-legged ancestors, the tetrapods,

    少數早期的鯊魚,恐懼地住在近海。

  • struggled in tropical river plains.

    你們的四隻腳祖先,即四足動物,

  • Ecosystems were crowded.

    在熱帶河流邊的平原上掙扎求生。

  • There was no escape,

    生態系統很擁擠。

  • no opportunity in sight.

    無處可逃,

  • Then the world ended.

    眼前也沒有機會。

  • (Laughter)

    接著世界末日了。

  • No, it is a good thing.

    (笑聲)

  • 96 percent of all fish species died

    不,這是好事。

  • during the Hangenberg event, 359 million years ago:

    所有魚種中的 96% 都死亡了,

  • an interval of fire and ice.

    這是 3.59 億年前的 泥盆紀後期滅絕事件:

  • A crowded world was disrupted and swept away.

    這是段火與冰的時期。

  • Now, you might think that's the end of the story.

    擁擠的世界被中斷、被徹底泯滅了。

  • The mighty fell, the meek inherited the earth,

    你們可能認為故事就到此為止。

  • and here we are.

    強大者陣亡,溫順者繼承了地球,

  • But winning is not that simple.

    我們就在這裡了。

  • The handful of survivors came from many groups --

    但,要贏並沒有那麼簡單。

  • all greatly outnumbered by their own dead.

    許多族群的少量生存者──

  • They ranged from top predator to bottom-feeder,

    這些族群都是死亡數遠高於存活數。

  • big to small,

    從最上層的掠食者到最下層的都有,

  • marine to freshwater.

    從大到小都有,

  • The extinction was a filter.

    從海洋到淡水都有。

  • It merely leveled the playing field.

    滅絕是一種過濾。

  • What really counted was what survivors did over the next several million years

    它只是把遊樂場給變平等了。

  • in that devastated world.

    真正重要的是在接下來的數百年間,

  • The former overlords should have had an advantage.

    生存者在那荒蕪的世界中做了什麼。

  • They became even larger,

    先前的最高統治者應該會有優勢。

  • storing energy,

    牠們變得更大了,

  • investing in their young,

    儲存能量,

  • spreading across the globe,

    投資在孩子身上,

  • feasting on fishes,

    散佈到全球,

  • keeping what had always worked, and biding their time.

    享用魚類,

  • Yet they merely persisted for a while,

    保持向來的運作,等待牠們的時機。

  • declining without innovating,

    但,牠們只堅持了一下子,

  • becoming living fossils.

    沒有創新而衰落,

  • They were too stuck in their ways

    變成了活化石。

  • and are now largely forgotten.

    牠們太執著在自己的方式,

  • A few of the long-suffering ray-fins, sharks and four-legged tetrapods

    現在大多已被遺忘。

  • went the opposite direction.

    少數長期遭受苦難的輻鰭魚類、 鯊魚和四足動物,

  • They became smaller --

    走的路則完全相反。

  • living fast, dying young,

    牠們變小了──

  • eating little and reproducing rapidly.

    生命過得很快,很早逝,

  • They tried new foods,

    吃得少,繁殖快。

  • different homes,

    牠們嘗試新食物,

  • strange heads and weird bodies.

    不同的家園,

  • (Laughter)

    奇怪的頭和怪異的身體。

  • And they found opportunity, proliferated,

    (笑聲)

  • and won the future for their 60,000 living species,

    牠們找到機會,增殖,

  • including you.

    為牠們六萬個現存物種贏得了未來,

  • That's why they look familiar.

    包括你們。

  • You know their names.

    那就是為何牠們很眼熟。

  • Winning is not about random events

    你們知道牠們的名字。

  • or an arms race.

    要贏的重點

  • Rather, survivors went down alternative, evolutionary pathways.

    不是隨機發生的事件或軍備競賽。

  • Some found incredible success,

    而是倖存者走向 替代道路、演化的路徑。

  • while others became dead fish walking.

    有些找到了極大的成功,

  • (Laughter)

    其他的則是「行屍走魚」。

  • A real scientific term.

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    這是真的科學術語。

  • I am now investigating

    (笑聲)

  • how these pathways to victory and defeat repeat across time.

    我現在在研究

  • My lab has already compiled thousands upon thousands of dead fishes,

    這些通往勝利和失敗的路徑 如何隨時間而重覆發生。

  • but many more remain.

    我的實驗室已經收集了 數以千計的死魚,

  • However, it is already clear

    但還有很多其他的。

  • that your ancestors' survival through mass extinction,

    然而,已經能清楚知道,

  • and their responses in the aftermath

    你們祖先在大滅絕中存活下來,

  • made you who you are today.

    而牠們在事件後的反應,

  • What does this tell us for the future?

    造成了現在的你們。

  • As long as a handful of species survive,

    這告訴我們什麼關於未來的訊息?

  • life will recover.

    只要還有少數物種存活,

  • The versatile and the lucky will not just replace what was lost,

    生命就會恢復。

  • but win in new forms.

    能隨機應變的、運氣好的物種, 不只會取代已失去的,

  • It just might take several million years.

    還會以新形式來贏。

  • Thank you.

    只是會花上數百萬年。

  • (Applause)

    謝謝。

Congratulations.

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED 魚類 物種 掠食 贏家 化石

【TED】勞倫-薩蘭:如何在進化中取勝,在大滅絕中生存(如何在進化中取勝,在大滅絕中生存|勞倫-薩蘭)。 (【TED】Lauren Sallan: How to win at evolution and survive a mass extinction (How to win at evolution and survive a mass extinction | Lauren Sallan))

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