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  • Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

    譯者: Zoe Chen 審譯者: Joyce Chou

  • I'm going to talk about religion.

    我今天要談的是宗教

  • But it's a broad and very delicate subject,

    但這是個很廣泛且必須小心處理的議題

  • so I have to limit myself.

    所以我必須有個限度

  • And therefore I will limit myself

    所以我當然會有所節制

  • to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.

    而單就宗教和性別之間的關係來談

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • This is a very serious talk.

    這是個很嚴肅的議題

  • So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.

    所以我會盡力以最好的方式來談

  • It's when the young couple whisper,

    當年輕夫妻小聲地說

  • "Tonight we are going to make a baby."

    "我們今天晚上來做個小寶寶"

  • My talk will be about the impact of religions

    今天要談的就是宗教層面

  • on the number of babies per woman.

    對每位婦女生的小寶寶數量的影響

  • This is indeed important,

    這確實很重要

  • because everyone understands

    因為我們每個人都知道

  • that there is some sort of limit

    那地球能夠承載的人的數量

  • on how many people we can be on this planet.

    其實是有某種極限的

  • And there are some people

    然後又有那麼一些人

  • who say that the world population is growing like this --

    說世界人口成長就以這樣的方式增加-

  • three billion in 1960,

    1960的30億

  • seven billion just last year --

    到去年的70億

  • and it will continue to grow

    然後會一直繼續增加

  • because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,

    因為有那麼一些宗教阻止婦女生少一點小孩

  • and it may continue like this.

    而且應該會繼續如此

  • To what extent are these people right?

    這些人能對到哪種程度?

  • When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,

    在我出生時,小孩人口的數量是少於10億的

  • and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.

    而如今,2000年,已經幾乎快到20億了

  • What has happened since,

    到底發生了什麼事

  • and what do the experts predict will happen

    然後在這個世紀全球小孩人口的總數

  • with the number of children during this century?

    專家們又預測了些什麼?

  • This is a quiz. What do you think?

    這是個測驗 你們覺得呢?

  • Do you think it will decrease to one billion?

    它會減少到10億嗎?

  • Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?

    還是到這個世紀結束前它還會維持在20億?

  • Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,

    會以每15年增加一次

  • or will it continue in the same fast rate

    還是它會以一樣快的速度繼續下去

  • and be four billion children up there?

    然後到了那裡就變成40億?

  • I will tell you by the end of my speech.

    我會在結束的時候告訴你們答案

  • But now, what does religion have to do with it?

    但宗教又和這有什麼關係?

  • When you want to classify religion,

    當你想把宗教分門別類

  • it's more difficult than you think.

    它會比你想像的還難

  • You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.

    你在維基百科上看到的第一張地圖會是這個

  • It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,

    它把世界劃分成阿伯拉罕信仰與東方信仰

  • but that's not detailed enough.

    但這還不夠詳細

  • So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.

    所以繼續看下去之後我們就發現了這張地圖

  • But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism

    它把基督,伊斯蘭和佛教信仰細分成

  • into many subgroups,

    很多小群

  • which was too detailed.

    這又變得太複雜了

  • Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,

    所以在Gapminder上我們自己做了一張地圖

  • and it looks like this.

    就是現在這張圖

  • Each country's a bubble.

    每個國家都是一個圓點

  • The size is the population -- big China, big India here.

    大小代表它的人口總量 中國和印度都是大的

  • And the color now is the majority religion.

    然後顏色代表主要的宗教信仰

  • It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people

    是在哪裡多於半數的人

  • say that they belong.

    說他們屬於的信仰

  • It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.

    在印度,中國和其他鄰近亞洲國家都是東方信仰

  • Islam is the majority religion

    而伊斯蘭信仰則

  • all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,

    遠從大西洋到中東,

  • Southern Europe and through Asia

    南歐然後穿過亞洲再到印尼

  • all the way to Indonesia.

    都是主要的宗教

  • That's where we find Islamic majority.

    那就是伊斯蘭信仰的大多數族群

  • And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.

    然後多數的基督教信仰族群 就是這些藍色的國家

  • And that is most countries in America and Europe,

    也就是大多數在美洲和歐洲的國家

  • many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.

    還有很多在非洲和一些在亞洲的國家

  • The white here are countries which cannot be classified,

    白色的部分則是還無法被分類的國家

  • because one religion does not reach 50 percent

    因為每一個宗教的信仰人口都還沒過半

  • or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.

    或是因為對資料的可信度還是一些某些其他的原因

  • So we were careful with that.

    我們其實是很小心在處理的

  • So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.

    現在我們來看看更簡單明瞭的圖

  • This is in 1960.

    這是1960年

  • And now I show the number of babies per woman here:

    我們可以看到每位婦女所生的小孩數量

  • two, four or six --

    兩個,四個或六個

  • many babies, few babies.

    很多和很少的小孩

  • And here the income per person in comparable dollars.

    然後這裡是每個人的收入

  • The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first

    我們看收入的原因是,很多人都說你必須先變得有錢

  • before you get few babies.

    才能去少生一些小孩

  • So low income here, high income there.

    所以這裡是收入低的,這裡是收入高的

  • And indeed in 1960,

    而確實在1960年

  • you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.

    你必須是個有錢的基督徒才能有較少的小孩

  • The exception was Japan.

    但除了日本

  • Japan here was regarded as an exception.

    在這裡日本是個例外

  • Otherwise it was only Christian countries.

    否則就只是在基督教信仰的國家才適用

  • But there was also many Christian countries

    但也有很多基督教信仰的國家

  • that had six to seven babies per woman.

    每位婦女平均生了6至7位的小孩

  • But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.

    但他們是在拉丁美洲和非洲

  • And countries with Islam as the majority religion,

    然後在大多數信仰是伊斯蘭教的國家

  • all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,

    則是,不論他們的收入多寡

  • irregardless of the income level.

    幾乎每位婦女都平均生了6到7位小孩

  • And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.

    然後除了日本,在其他東方信仰的國家也是如此

  • Now let's see what has happened in the world.

    現在我們來看看這一切是如何轉變的

  • I start the world, and here we go.

    就讓我們從世界的角度來看

  • Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,

    1962年,你可以看到他們變得比較有錢

  • but the number of babies per woman is falling?

    但每位婦女所生的小孩數量卻在下降?

  • Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.

    看看中國,他們以相當快的速度在下降

  • And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,

    大多數以穆斯林為主的國家,無論收入多寡,也是在下降

  • as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.

    而大多數中等收入的基督徒身上也是如此

  • And when we enter into this century,

    然後當我們跨入這世紀時

  • you'll find more than half of mankind down here.

    你看到大部分的人類都在這

  • And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans

    然後到2010年 我們百分之80的人類都在這

  • who live in countries with about two children per woman.

    平均每位婦女只生兩位小孩的國家

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • It's a quite amazing development which has happened.

    這真的是件令人震驚的發展

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • And these are countries from United States here,

    然後從這裡是美國

  • with $40,000 per capita,

    平均每人所得4萬美金

  • France, Russia, Iran,

    到法國,俄羅斯,伊朗

  • Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,

    墨西哥,土耳其,阿爾及利亞

  • Indonesia, India

    印尼,印度

  • and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,

    然後到最後的孟加拉和越南

  • which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States

    平均每人所得低於美國的百分之五

  • and the same amount of babies per woman.

    然後每位婦女所生的小孩數量是一樣的

  • I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman

    我們這些每位婦女生的小孩數量的統計資料

  • is surprisingly good in all countries.

    來源是相當可靠的

  • We get that from the census data.

    我們是從人口普查拿到這些資料

  • It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.

    並不是那些可信度相當低的統計資料

  • So what we can conclude

    所以我們可以推斷出

  • is you don't have to get rich to have few children.

    並不用要變得有錢才能生比較少的小孩

  • It has happened across the world.

    這也是事實上所已經發生的

  • And then when we look at religions,

    然後當我們再來看宗教信仰

  • we can see that the Eastern religions,

    可以發現在那些以東方信仰為主的國家

  • indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion

    確實沒有一個國家的

  • that has more than three children.

    平均每位婦女生的小孩數量超過三個

  • Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,

    鑑於那些以伊斯蘭和基督教為主的國家

  • you see countries all the way.

    也是如此

  • But there's no major difference.

    沒有太大的不同

  • There's no major difference between these religions.

    在宗教層面上並沒有太大的不同

  • There is a difference with income.

    只有一個收入多寡的差別

  • The countries which have many babies per woman here,

    這些平均每位婦女生很多小孩的國家

  • they have quite low income.

    收入都相當的低

  • Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.

    他們大部分都位於非洲的南撒哈拉沙漠區

  • But there are also countries here

    但這裡也有一些

  • like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,

    瓜地馬拉, 巴布新幾內亞

  • like Yemen and Afghanistan.

    葉門和阿富汗的國家

  • Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,

    很多人都認為阿富汗和剛果

  • which have suffered severe conflicts,

    都遭受嚴重的軍事衝突

  • that they don't have fast population growth.

    所以人口成長速度並不高

  • It's the other way around.

    實際上是相反的

  • In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates

    在現今的世界 那種死亡率很高的國家

  • that have the fastest population growth.

    才會有很快的人口成長

  • Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.

    因為多生另一個小孩可以補償一個小孩的死去

  • These countries have six children per woman.

    這些國家平均每位婦女生的小孩數量是六位

  • They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.

    而平均每位婦女1至2位的小孩就有死亡的可能

  • But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.

    但再過三十年 阿富汗的人口就會從3千萬到6千萬

  • Congo will go from 60 to 120.

    剛果則會從6千萬到1億2千萬

  • That's where we have the fast population growth.

    這就是高度人口成長的國家

  • And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.

    然後也有很多人認為這些國家是相當落後蕭條的 其實不是如此

  • Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,

    讓我來比較由伊斯蘭教統治的國家-塞內加爾

  • with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.

    和一個以基督教統治的國家-迦納

  • I take them backwards here to their independence,

    讓我們回到他們獨立的時候

  • when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.

    那是在1960年代初

  • Just look what they have done.

    看看他們這一路是如何走來的

  • It's an amazing improvement,

    實在是件很令人驚訝的改變

  • from seven children per woman,

    從平均每位婦女所生的小孩數量7位

  • they've gone all the way down to between four and five.

    到平均4到5位

  • It's a tremendous improvement.

    這的確是很驚人的改善

  • So what does it take?

    那它所付出的是什麼?

  • Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.

    其實我們都知道這些國家需要的是什麼

  • You need to have children to survive.

    你需要孩子們存活下來

  • You need to get out of the deepest poverty

    你需要脫離極度的貧困

  • so children are not of importance for work in the family.

    所以在家庭中孩子們並不會工作的重要一環

  • You need to have access to some family planning.

    你需要一些家庭計劃的管道

  • And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.

    還有那也許就是最重要的第四點因素

  • But let me illustrate that fourth factor

    讓我從卡達的例子

  • by looking at Qatar.

    來說說那第四點原因

  • Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.

    這裡有卡達和孟加拉

  • If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,

    如果我回到這些國家獨立的年份

  • which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --

    幾乎是在同一年- 1971和1972

  • it's a quite amazing development which had happened.

    這真的是相當令人驚訝的發展

  • Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.

    看看孟加拉和卡達

  • With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop

    在平均每位婦女生的小孩數量上幾乎是同等量的下降

  • in number of babies per woman.

    卻有著這麼大的收入差異

  • And what is the reason in Qatar?

    那在卡達又設什麼原因呢?

  • Well I do as I always do.

    我一直想要知道

  • I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --

    所以我去他們的網頁上找到卡達的官方統計數據

  • It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --

    我推薦這個很棒的網頁

  • and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --

    我在這裡慢慢研究過 這真的很好玩

  • and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.

    不用付任何一毛錢 我就可以發現卡達的社會潮流是如何

  • Very interesting. Lots to read.

    這實在很有趣 有很多可以去了解

  • I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.

    我發現他們的出生率相當高 也就是平均每位婦女的生產量相當高

  • These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,

    這些是在卡達的政府部門服務的專家和學者們

  • and they say the most important factors are:

    他們說最重要的就是要

  • "Increased age at first marriage,

    "提高第一次結婚時的年齡

  • increased educational level of Qatari woman

    讓卡達婦女的教育水平的提升

  • and more women integrated in the labor force."

    然後就會有更多的婦女進入職場"

  • I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.

    科學和我都再同意也不過了

  • This is a country that indeed has gone through

    這的確是一個已經走過一段

  • a very, very interesting modernization.

    非常有趣的現代化時期的國家

  • So what it is, is these four:

    所以就是以下這個很重要

  • Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,

    小孩只需要存活下來而不需要去工作

  • women should get education and join the labor force

    婦女應該要接受教育然後進入職場

  • and family planning should be accessible.

    然後家庭計畫就應該會變得較容易

  • Now look again at this.

    現在再來看看這

  • The average number of children in the world

    目前世界上平均孩童量

  • is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.

    是像哥倫比亞一樣是2.4位

  • There are countries up here which are very poor.

    這裡也有一些相當窮困的國家

  • And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.

    也就是家庭計畫和較高的孩童存活率需要的地方

  • I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.

    我極力推薦大家Melinda Gates的上一個演講

  • And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.

    然後這裡有很多平均每位婦女生的小孩數量低於二的國家

  • So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,

    所以現在我們回到一開始那個小測驗

  • it's two.

    答案是第二個

  • We have reached peak child.

    我們已經達到小孩人口量的最高峰

  • The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.

    也就是說世界上孩童人口的數量已經不會再增加

  • We are still debating peak oil,

    我們還是不斷地需要石油

  • but we have definitely reached peak child.

    但是我們已經達到小孩人口量的最高峰

  • And the world population will stop growing.

    所以世界的人口量就會停止成長

  • The United Nations Population Division has said

    聯合國的人口統計部就曾說過

  • it will stop growing at 10 billion.

    它會在到達100億的時候停下來

  • But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?

    但是為什麼會在小孩數量沒有成長的情況下還增加?

  • Well I will show you here.

    看一下這裡

  • I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.

    我會用這些小框框

  • They are quite useful for educational purposes.

    在一些教育目的上來說他們是很有用處的

  • Each card box is one billion people.

    每個小框框代表10 億人口

  • And there are two billion children in the world.

    然後在世界上總共有20億兒童

  • There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.

    20億在15到30歲間的年輕人

  • These are rounded numbers.

    這些都是圓形的

  • Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,

    然後也有10億在30到45歲之間的

  • almost one between 45 and 60.

    接著幾乎10億的45到60歲間的人口

  • And then it's my box.

    然後這裡是我在的框框

  • This is me: 60-plus.

    像我一樣超過60歲的都在這

  • We are here on top.

    我們在最上面這裡

  • So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."

    然後接著會發生的就是我們所說的"大填補"

  • You can see that it's like three billion missing here.

    你可以看到這裡就像少了個30億

  • They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.

    他們是因為死了而不是消失 但其實他們從來沒有出生過

  • Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born

    因為和近30年來比較

  • than there were during the last 30 years.

    1980年以前比較沒那麼多人出生

  • So what will happen now is quite straightforward.

    所以之後會發生什麼事其實是非常明顯的了

  • The old, sadly, we will die.

    難過的是,我們老人一定會死去

  • The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.

    而其他的人呢 就慢慢的變老然後會有新一代20億個小孩出現

  • Then the old will die.

    之後老的人口又一定會死去

  • The rest will grow older and get two billion children.

    其他的就慢慢老去 然後就又出現新一代20億個小孩

  • And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.

    之後老的人口又死去 新一代20億個小孩就又會出現

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • This is the great fill-up.

    這是種很棒的"填補"

  • It's inevitable.

    而且是無法避免的

  • And can you see that this increase took place

    你可以看到這種增加發生

  • without life getting longer and without adding children?

    如果沒有生活得更長、 而無需添加兒童?

  • Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.

    宗教和每位婦女所生的小孩數量其實沒什麼關係

  • All the religions in the world are fully capable

    世界上所有的宗教都是有能力

  • to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.

    去維持它們的價值觀同時去適應新的時代

  • And we will be just 10 billion in this world,

    然後我們每個人在這世界上就只會是那100億中的一個

  • if the poorest people get out of poverty,

    如果那些最貧窮的人脫離貧困

  • their children survive, they get access to family planning.

    孩子們存活了下來然後他們有能力去規劃家庭

  • That is needed.

    這就是一定需要的

  • But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.

    但不可避免地我們人口會比20到30億還多

  • So when you discuss and when you plan

    所以當你在推估討論時

  • for the resources and the energy needed for the future,

    那些我們在未來所需的能源和資源