I'm going to talk about religion.

我今天要談的是宗教

But it's a broad and very delicate subject,

但這是個很廣泛且必須小心處理的議題

so I have to limit myself.

所以我必須有個限度

And therefore I will limit myself

所以我當然會有所節制

to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.

而單就宗教和性別之間的關係來談

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

This is a very serious talk.

這是個很嚴肅的議題

So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.

所以我會盡力以最好的方式來談

It's when the young couple whisper,

當年輕夫妻小聲地說

"Tonight we are going to make a baby."

"我們今天晚上來做個小寶寶"

My talk will be about the impact of religions

今天要談的就是宗教層面

on the number of babies per woman.

對每位婦女生的小寶寶數量的影響

This is indeed important,

這確實很重要

because everyone understands

因為我們每個人都知道

that there is some sort of limit

那地球能夠承載的人的數量

on how many people we can be on this planet.

其實是有某種極限的

And there are some people

然後又有那麼一些人

who say that the world population is growing like this --

說世界人口成長就以這樣的方式增加-

three billion in 1960,

1960的30億

seven billion just last year --

到去年的70億

and it will continue to grow

然後會一直繼續增加

because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,

因為有那麼一些宗教阻止婦女生少一點小孩

and it may continue like this.

而且應該會繼續如此

To what extent are these people right?

這些人能對到哪種程度?

When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,

在我出生時,小孩人口的數量是少於10億的

and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.

而如今,2000年,已經幾乎快到20億了

What has happened since,

到底發生了什麼事

and what do the experts predict will happen

然後在這個世紀全球小孩人口的總數

with the number of children during this century?

專家們又預測了些什麼?

This is a quiz. What do you think?

這是個測驗 你們覺得呢?

Do you think it will decrease to one billion?

它會減少到10億嗎?

Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?

還是到這個世紀結束前它還會維持在20億?

Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,

會以每15年增加一次

or will it continue in the same fast rate

還是它會以一樣快的速度繼續下去

and be four billion children up there?

然後到了那裡就變成40億?

I will tell you by the end of my speech.

我會在結束的時候告訴你們答案

But now, what does religion have to do with it?

但宗教又和這有什麼關係?

When you want to classify religion,

當你想把宗教分門別類

it's more difficult than you think.

它會比你想像的還難

You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.

你在維基百科上看到的第一張地圖會是這個

It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,

它把世界劃分成阿伯拉罕信仰與東方信仰

but that's not detailed enough.

但這還不夠詳細

So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.

所以繼續看下去之後我們就發現了這張地圖

But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism

它把基督,伊斯蘭和佛教信仰細分成

into many subgroups,

很多小群

which was too detailed.

這又變得太複雜了

Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,

所以在Gapminder上我們自己做了一張地圖

and it looks like this.

就是現在這張圖

Each country's a bubble.

每個國家都是一個圓點

The size is the population -- big China, big India here.

大小代表它的人口總量 中國和印度都是大的

And the color now is the majority religion.

然後顏色代表主要的宗教信仰

It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people

是在哪裡多於半數的人

say that they belong.

說他們屬於的信仰

It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.

在印度,中國和其他鄰近亞洲國家都是東方信仰

Islam is the majority religion

而伊斯蘭信仰則

all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,

遠從大西洋到中東,

Southern Europe and through Asia

南歐然後穿過亞洲再到印尼

all the way to Indonesia.

都是主要的宗教

That's where we find Islamic majority.

那就是伊斯蘭信仰的大多數族群

And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.

然後多數的基督教信仰族群 就是這些藍色的國家

And that is most countries in America and Europe,

也就是大多數在美洲和歐洲的國家

many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.

還有很多在非洲和一些在亞洲的國家

The white here are countries which cannot be classified,

白色的部分則是還無法被分類的國家

because one religion does not reach 50 percent

因為每一個宗教的信仰人口都還沒過半

or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.

或是因為對資料的可信度還是一些某些其他的原因

So we were careful with that.

我們其實是很小心在處理的

So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.

現在我們來看看更簡單明瞭的圖

This is in 1960.

這是1960年

And now I show the number of babies per woman here:

我們可以看到每位婦女所生的小孩數量

two, four or six --

兩個,四個或六個

many babies, few babies.

很多和很少的小孩

And here the income per person in comparable dollars.

然後這裡是每個人的收入

The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first

我們看收入的原因是,很多人都說你必須先變得有錢

before you get few babies.

才能去少生一些小孩

So low income here, high income there.

所以這裡是收入低的,這裡是收入高的

And indeed in 1960,

而確實在1960年

you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.

你必須是個有錢的基督徒才能有較少的小孩

The exception was Japan.

但除了日本

Japan here was regarded as an exception.

在這裡日本是個例外

Otherwise it was only Christian countries.

否則就只是在基督教信仰的國家才適用

But there was also many Christian countries

但也有很多基督教信仰的國家

that had six to seven babies per woman.

每位婦女平均生了6至7位的小孩

But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.

但他們是在拉丁美洲和非洲

And countries with Islam as the majority religion,

然後在大多數信仰是伊斯蘭教的國家

all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,

則是,不論他們的收入多寡

irregardless of the income level.

幾乎每位婦女都平均生了6到7位小孩

And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.

然後除了日本,在其他東方信仰的國家也是如此

Now let's see what has happened in the world.

現在我們來看看這一切是如何轉變的

I start the world, and here we go.

就讓我們從世界的角度來看

Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,

1962年,你可以看到他們變得比較有錢

but the number of babies per woman is falling?

但每位婦女所生的小孩數量卻在下降?

Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.

看看中國,他們以相當快的速度在下降

And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,

大多數以穆斯林為主的國家,無論收入多寡,也是在下降

as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.

而大多數中等收入的基督徒身上也是如此

And when we enter into this century,

然後當我們跨入這世紀時

you'll find more than half of mankind down here.

你看到大部分的人類都在這

And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans

然後到2010年 我們百分之80的人類都在這

who live in countries with about two children per woman.

平均每位婦女只生兩位小孩的國家

(Applause)

(掌聲)

It's a quite amazing development which has happened.

這真的是件令人震驚的發展

(Applause)

(掌聲)

And these are countries from United States here,

然後從這裡是美國

with $40,000 per capita,

平均每人所得4萬美金

France, Russia, Iran,

到法國,俄羅斯,伊朗

Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,

墨西哥,土耳其,阿爾及利亞

Indonesia, India

印尼,印度

and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,

然後到最後的孟加拉和越南

which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States

平均每人所得低於美國的百分之五

and the same amount of babies per woman.

然後每位婦女所生的小孩數量是一樣的

I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman

我們這些每位婦女生的小孩數量的統計資料

is surprisingly good in all countries.

來源是相當可靠的

We get that from the census data.

我們是從人口普查拿到這些資料

It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.

並不是那些可信度相當低的統計資料

So what we can conclude

所以我們可以推斷出

is you don't have to get rich to have few children.

並不用要變得有錢才能生比較少的小孩

It has happened across the world.

這也是事實上所已經發生的

And then when we look at religions,

然後當我們再來看宗教信仰

we can see that the Eastern religions,

可以發現在那些以東方信仰為主的國家

indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion

確實沒有一個國家的

that has more than three children.

平均每位婦女生的小孩數量超過三個

Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,

鑑於那些以伊斯蘭和基督教為主的國家

you see countries all the way.

也是如此

But there's no major difference.

沒有太大的不同

There's no major difference between these religions.

在宗教層面上並沒有太大的不同

There is a difference with income.

只有一個收入多寡的差別

The countries which have many babies per woman here,

這些平均每位婦女生很多小孩的國家

they have quite low income.

收入都相當的低

Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.

他們大部分都位於非洲的南撒哈拉沙漠區

But there are also countries here

但這裡也有一些

like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,

瓜地馬拉, 巴布新幾內亞

like Yemen and Afghanistan.

葉門和阿富汗的國家

Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,

很多人都認為阿富汗和剛果

which have suffered severe conflicts,

都遭受嚴重的軍事衝突

that they don't have fast population growth.

所以人口成長速度並不高

It's the other way around.

實際上是相反的

In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates

在現今的世界 那種死亡率很高的國家

that have the fastest population growth.

才會有很快的人口成長

Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.

因為多生另一個小孩可以補償一個小孩的死去

These countries have six children per woman.

這些國家平均每位婦女生的小孩數量是六位

They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.

而平均每位婦女1至2位的小孩就有死亡的可能

But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.

但再過三十年 阿富汗的人口就會從3千萬到6千萬

Congo will go from 60 to 120.

剛果則會從6千萬到1億2千萬

That's where we have the fast population growth.

這就是高度人口成長的國家

And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.

然後也有很多人認為這些國家是相當落後蕭條的 其實不是如此

Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,

讓我來比較由伊斯蘭教統治的國家-塞內加爾

with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.

和一個以基督教統治的國家-迦納

I take them backwards here to their independence,

讓我們回到他們獨立的時候

when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.

那是在1960年代初

Just look what they have done.

看看他們這一路是如何走來的

It's an amazing improvement,

實在是件很令人驚訝的改變

from seven children per woman,

從平均每位婦女所生的小孩數量7位

they've gone all the way down to between four and five.

到平均4到5位

It's a tremendous improvement.

這的確是很驚人的改善

So what does it take?

那它所付出的是什麼?

Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.

其實我們都知道這些國家需要的是什麼

You need to have children to survive.

你需要孩子們存活下來

You need to get out of the deepest poverty

你需要脫離極度的貧困

so children are not of importance for work in the family.

所以在家庭中孩子們並不會工作的重要一環

You need to have access to some family planning.

你需要一些家庭計劃的管道

And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.

還有那也許就是最重要的第四點因素

But let me illustrate that fourth factor

讓我從卡達的例子

by looking at Qatar.

來說說那第四點原因

Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.

這裡有卡達和孟加拉

If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,

如果我回到這些國家獨立的年份

which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --

幾乎是在同一年- 1971和1972

it's a quite amazing development which had happened.

這真的是相當令人驚訝的發展

Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.

看看孟加拉和卡達

With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop

在平均每位婦女生的小孩數量上幾乎是同等量的下降

in number of babies per woman.

卻有著這麼大的收入差異

And what is the reason in Qatar?

那在卡達又設什麼原因呢?

Well I do as I always do.

我一直想要知道

I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --

所以我去他們的網頁上找到卡達的官方統計數據

It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --

我推薦這個很棒的網頁

and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --

我在這裡慢慢研究過 這真的很好玩

and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.

不用付任何一毛錢 我就可以發現卡達的社會潮流是如何

Very interesting. Lots to read.

這實在很有趣 有很多可以去了解

I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.

我發現他們的出生率相當高 也就是平均每位婦女的生產量相當高

These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,

這些是在卡達的政府部門服務的專家和學者們

and they say the most important factors are:

他們說最重要的就是要

"Increased age at first marriage,

"提高第一次結婚時的年齡

increased educational level of Qatari woman

讓卡達婦女的教育水平的提升

and more women integrated in the labor force."

然後就會有更多的婦女進入職場"

I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.

科學和我都再同意也不過了

This is a country that indeed has gone through

這的確是一個已經走過一段

a very, very interesting modernization.

非常有趣的現代化時期的國家

So what it is, is these four:

所以就是以下這個很重要

Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,

小孩只需要存活下來而不需要去工作

women should get education and join the labor force

婦女應該要接受教育然後進入職場

and family planning should be accessible.

然後家庭計畫就應該會變得較容易

Now look again at this.

現在再來看看這

The average number of children in the world

目前世界上平均孩童量

is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.

是像哥倫比亞一樣是2.4位

There are countries up here which are very poor.

這裡也有一些相當窮困的國家

And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.

也就是家庭計畫和較高的孩童存活率需要的地方

I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.

我極力推薦大家Melinda Gates的上一個演講

And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.

然後這裡有很多平均每位婦女生的小孩數量低於二的國家

So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,

所以現在我們回到一開始那個小測驗

it's two.

答案是第二個

We have reached peak child.

我們已經達到小孩人口量的最高峰

The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.

也就是說世界上孩童人口的數量已經不會再增加

We are still debating peak oil,

我們還是不斷地需要石油

but we have definitely reached peak child.

但是我們已經達到小孩人口量的最高峰

And the world population will stop growing.

所以世界的人口量就會停止成長

The United Nations Population Division has said

聯合國的人口統計部就曾說過

it will stop growing at 10 billion.

它會在到達100億的時候停下來

But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?

但是為什麼會在小孩數量沒有成長的情況下還增加?

Well I will show you here.

看一下這裡

I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.

我會用這些小框框

They are quite useful for educational purposes.

在一些教育目的上來說他們是很有用處的

Each card box is one billion people.

每個小框框代表10 億人口

And there are two billion children in the world.

然後在世界上總共有20億兒童

There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.

20億在15到30歲間的年輕人

These are rounded numbers.

這些都是圓形的

Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,

然後也有10億在30到45歲之間的

almost one between 45 and 60.

接著幾乎10億的45到60歲間的人口

And then it's my box.

然後這裡是我在的框框

This is me: 60-plus.

像我一樣超過60歲的都在這

We are here on top.

我們在最上面這裡

So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."

然後接著會發生的就是我們所說的"大填補"

You can see that it's like three billion missing here.

你可以看到這裡就像少了個30億

They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.

他們是因為死了而不是消失 但其實他們從來沒有出生過

Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born

因為和近30年來比較

than there were during the last 30 years.

1980年以前比較沒那麼多人出生

So what will happen now is quite straightforward.

所以之後會發生什麼事其實是非常明顯的了

The old, sadly, we will die.

難過的是,我們老人一定會死去

The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.

而其他的人呢 就慢慢的變老然後會有新一代20億個小孩出現

Then the old will die.

之後老的人口又一定會死去

The rest will grow older and get two billion children.

其他的就慢慢老去 然後就又出現新一代20億個小孩

And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.

之後老的人口又死去 新一代20億個小孩就又會出現

(Applause)

(掌聲)

This is the great fill-up.

這是種很棒的"填補"

It's inevitable.

而且是無法避免的

And can you see that this increase took place