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  • Do you ever feel completely overwhelmed

    譯者: Adrienne Lin 審譯者: Sherry Yang

  • when you're faced with a complex problem?

    當你面對著一個複雜的問題時

  • Well, I hope to change that in less than three minutes.

    你是否曾經覺得很不知所措?

  • So, I hope to convince you that complex

    我希望能在三分鐘內為此做些改變

  • doesn't always equal complicated.

    因此,我希望說服你其實複雜

  • So for me, a well-crafted baguette, fresh out of the oven,

    並不總是繁雜

  • is complex,

    對我來說,一個剛出爐的精心烘培法國麵包

  • but a curry onion green olive poppy cheese bread

    是複雜的

  • is complicated.

    但是咖哩綠橄欖罌粟洋蔥起司麵包

  • I'm an ecologist, and I study complexity. I love complexity.

    是複雜的

  • And I study that in the natural world, the interconnectedness of species.

    我是一個生態學家,我研究複雜性,我愛複雜性

  • So here's a food web,

    我還研究在自然界中,物種彼此之間的關係

  • or a map of feeding links between species

    這是一個食物網

  • that live in Alpine Lakes in the mountains of California.

    或者是一張食物鏈關聯圖

  • And this is what happens to that food web

    描述加州高山湖的物種關係

  • when it's stocked with non-native fish that never lived there before.

    而這是食物網現在的樣子

  • All the grayed-out species disappear.

    非原生的魚類大量湧入後

  • Some are actually on the brink of extinction.

    所有灰色的物種消失了

  • And lakes with fish have more mosquitos, even though they eat them.

    有些瀕臨絕種

  • These effects were all unanticipated,

    有魚的湖會有更多蚊子,雖然魚會吃蚊子

  • and yet we're discovering they're predictable.

    這些影響都是預想不到的

  • So I want to share with you a couple key insights

    但我們發現他們是可被預測的

  • about complexity we're learning from studying nature

    所以我想要分享幾個想法

  • that maybe are applicable to other problems.

    關於在自然界學到的複雜性

  • First is the simple power of good visualization tools

    或許可以沿用到其他問題

  • to help untangle complexity

    首先,視覺化工具所帶來的簡單力量

  • and just encourage you to ask questions you didn't think of before.

    可以幫助釐清複雜性

  • For example, you could plot the flow of carbon

    並且引導你思考你從未想過的問題

  • through corporate supply chains in a corporate ecosystem,

    例如,你可以在圖中找出相似處

  • or the interconnections of habitat patches

    在生態系統中的一堆關連中

  • for endangered species in Yosemite National Park.

    或在優勝美地國家公園

  • The next thing is that if you want to predict

    標出瀕絕物種棲息地的關係

  • the effect of one species on another,

    其次,如果你想要預測

  • if you focus only on that link,

    物種間彼此的影響

  • and then you black box the rest,

    如果你只專注那個連結

  • it's actually less predictable

    然後忽略掉其它的

  • than if you step back, consider the entire system -- all the species, all the links --

    其實是較難預測的

  • and from that place,

    如果你退回上一步,納入整個系統,包括所有物種、關聯

  • hone in on the sphere of influence that matters most.

    從這裡

  • And we're discovering, with our research,

    把焦點集中在相關的影響範圍

  • that's often very local to the node you care about

    而我們在研究中發現

  • within one or two degrees.

    通常是在你注意的癥結點附近的

  • So the more you step back, embrace complexity,

    一到兩層左右

  • the better chance you have of finding simple answers,

    所以你退的越多,並廣納複雜

  • and it's often different than the simple answer that you started with.

    你就越有機會找到簡單的答案

  • So let's switch gears and look at a really complex problem

    而且是和你起先著手的簡單答案不同

  • courtesy of the U.S. government.

    現在換個角度,用美國政府來看

  • This is a diagram of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

    真正複雜的問題

  • It was front page of the New York Times a couple months ago.

    這是美國對阿富汗鎮暴策略的示意圖

  • Instantly ridiculed by the media

    幾個月前出現在紐約時報頭版

  • for being so crazy complicated.

    馬上被媒體嘲笑著

  • And the stated goal was to increase popular support

    因為這張表實在是太過複雜

  • for the Afghan government.

    而他們的目標是為了要聲援

  • Clearly a complex problem,

    阿富汗政權

  • but is it complicated?

    這很明顯的是個多重的問題

  • Well, when I saw this in the front page of the Times,

    但它複雜嗎

  • I thought, "Great. Finally something I can relate to.

    我看到報紙的這篇頭版時

  • I can sink my teeth into this."

    我心裡想著 "太好了,總算有類似的東西了"

  • So let's do it. So here we go for the first time ever,

    "我可以拿出來大講特講"

  • a world premiere view of this spaghetti diagram as an ordered network.

    來吧,全世界有史以來第一次

  • The circled node is the one we're trying to influence --

    要把錯綜複雜的圖表變成有條理的網路

  • popular support for the government.

    圈起來的癥結點是我們試圖想要去影響

  • And so now we can look one degrees, two degrees,

    對政府的支持聲浪

  • three degrees away from that node

    因此,我們可以看,第一層,第二層

  • and eliminate three-quarters of the diagram outside that sphere of influence.

    第三層與結點間的關係

  • Within that sphere,

    然後去除圖表中的四分之三沒有在範圍裡的影響

  • most of those nodes are not actionable, like the harshness of the terrain,

    在這個範圍中

  • and a very small minority are actual military actions.

    大部分的結點是不可動的,如險峻的地勢

  • Most are non-violent and they fall into two broad categories:

    少數是軍事行動

  • active engagement with ethnic rivalries and religious beliefs

    大部分是非暴力的,並且可分為兩大類別

  • and fair, transparent economic development

    道德抗爭與宗教信條的激烈交戰

  • and provisioning of services.

    與公平、透明的經濟發展

  • I don't know about this, but this is what I can decipher from this diagram

    和糧食供應服務

  • in 24 seconds.

    我不知道這些是什麼,可是我能在24秒內

  • When you see a diagram like this, I don't want you to be afraid.

    分析出這些東西

  • I want you to be excited. I want you to be relieved.

    當你看到一個像這樣的圖表,你不需要感到害怕

  • Because simple answers may emerge.

    我要你覺得開心,感到鬆了一口氣

  • We're discovering in nature that simplicity often lies

    因為簡單的答案會浮現

  • on the other side of complexity.

    我們發現在自然界裡,複雜的反面

  • So for any problem, the more you can zoom out and embrace complexity,

    其實就是簡單

  • the better chance you have of zooming in

    所以對任何問題,你愈往後退,涵蓋複雜

  • on the simple details that matter most.

    你愈有機會可以聚焦

  • Thank you.

    在簡單並影響最鉅的細節上

  • (Applause)

    感謝各位

Do you ever feel completely overwhelmed

譯者: Adrienne Lin 審譯者: Sherry Yang

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED 複雜 物種 自然界 圖表 影響

【TED】埃裡克-貝洛:簡化複雜性(Eric Berlow: Simplifying complexity) (【TED】Eric Berlow: Simplifying complexity (Eric Berlow: Simplifying complexity))

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    Zenn 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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