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Donald Trump has a very nationalistic overall worldview
that carries over into his trade policy.
“...remember that! America first! America first!"
He sees these kinds of things as very much zero-sum: in which one side wins and another side loses.
“We've lost our jobs like we're a bunch of babies.
They've gone to other countries.
They've gone to Mexico.
They've gone to many other countries.
...It's all so easy, believe me.
It's all so easy.”
But in a complex system like global trade, it's not always easy to tell who is winning.
Trump has suggested really really really strongly that he wants to crack down on imports from Mexico.
“...and plants and factories and everything else going into Mexico.”
...and that has driven down the value of Mexico's currency an enormous amount.
Ironically, making the peso cheaper makes it an even more attractive place to locate production
because it means that, in effect, Mexican workers are being paid less
and makes it harder for American factories to compete with Mexican ones.
But that's not what Donald Trump says is going to happen.
“...but here's what happens: I will tell them, 'You're gonna move back, right?'
and they're gonna say, "Yes, sir. We're moving back to the United States."
We're going to build our factory in the United States.
We're not moving to Mexico and we are going to create a lot of new employment.
Trump blames the loss of manufacturing jobs on trade deals like NAFTA: The North American Free Trade Agreement
that reduced barriers to trade between the US, Canada, and Mexico.
"NAFTA will tear down trade barriers between our three nations.
It will create the world's largest trade zone and create 20,000 jobs in this country."
"We're not getting anything. We have NAFTA, which is a total and complete disaster."
While trade deals are an easy target on the campaign trail, they are only one part of the equation.
When you look at the really long term, you can see that
manufacturing jobs have been declining as a share of the economy very steadily for a very long time.
And that tells us that, even though trade deals matter, they are not the driver of this big trend.
It's just, over the long haul,because of automation, as economies evolve and advance,
more people work in the service sector, fewer people work in the manufacturing sector.
Trade plays a role in that, but it's not the primary driver.
despite this fact, it's exactly those jobs that Trump is claiming to protect by withdrawing from the TPP, The Trans-Pacific Partnership.
"A great thing for the American worker, what we just did."
This particular trade deal,
it was designed to take a lot of Asian countries and bind them more closely together with the United States,
one reason countries were eager to do a trade deal with The United States, rather than with China,
is that they are closer to China and thus they are a little bit afraid of China
and they want to keep the United States investing in Asia.
If we pull out, that may leave some of these countries feeling exposed or alone
and like they need to enter into a Chinese economic orbit.
This decision means fewer cheap imports,
but it also affects the market for American exports.
One thing that's worth noting here is that farmers would've been big winners under Trans Pacific Partnership.
In particular, I think the expectation was that the United States would be able to export a lot more agricultural goods to Japan.
If the US has joined the TPP, American farmers would have had a stronger relationship with Japan, the world's fourth largest agricultural consumer.
Rural voters broke very very heavily in favor of Donald Trump,
but they may actually lose out by his sort of less trade-friendly policies.
And it just shows that the world is complicated and it's difficult to change things.
And, you really do need to talk to expert people.
“I am a free trader one hundred percent, but we need smart people making the deals
and we don't have smart people making the deals.”
Trump's view is that for us to win at trade somebody else has to be losing.
"This country is going to start winning again. We don't win anymore."
I don't think that that is true
If he proves me wrong, you know, I think he'll have a great deal to brag about,
but I think he's going to find that, you know,
the forces dragging American manufacturing employment down are fairly profound and that the kinds of things he thinks will fix it are just as likely to make things worse as better.
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證據在此!川普其實一點都不了解貿易?(What Donald Trump doesn't understand about trade)

17736 分類 收藏
Samuel 發佈於 2018 年 6 月 6 日    Charlotte Chou 翻譯    HsiangLanLee 審核

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川普的發言總是讓小 V 摸不著頭緒,這次他是出來談貿易呢!但是他真的懂貿易嗎?為什麼川普極力要退出與墨國間的貿易?為什麼他要退出 《北美自由貿易協定》?而他的行為又即將為美國帶來什麼問題呢?讓我們一起來看看影片吧!

1crack down on 0:37
意思是「制裁、鎮壓」
The government cracked down on the student protesters.
政府鎮壓了那群抗議的學生。


*同場加映:
美國總統歐巴馬在聯合國會議上演講 (Watch President Obama Address the UN General Assembly)


2the long haul  2:13
意思是「以年記 (而不是以天、周、月記) 的一段時間」
I want to invest money for the long haul , not just to get rich quick.
我想用這筆錢做長期的投資,並不是想在一夕間致富。

long-haul 是形容詞,意思是「長途的,遠途的」
I took a long-haul flight to the U.S.A.
我搭了長途飛機到美國。


*同場加映:
美國總統歐巴馬呼籲盡快結束政府停運 (END THIS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. Obama Today on Weekly Address October 5, 2013)


3despite2:25
意思是「儘管、雖然」,通常這個字出現在句子裡的時候,是連接兩個子句。despitein spite of 的用法與語意基本上是一樣的,而後面只能接名詞。請切記沒有 despite of 這個用法!
I will go picnicking on the weekend despite the bad weather.
雖然這週末的天氣不怎麼樣,我還是要去野餐。

He went to school despite his illness.
儘管生病,他還是去工作。


*同場加映:
【TED】這個應用程式知道你的感覺—從你的表情就知道了!Rana el Kaliouby: This app knows how you feel — from the look on your face


in spite of 後面一樣是接名詞
James still failed his final exam in spite of his efforts.
儘管詹姆士很用功地準備期末考,他還是不及格。

I went out in spite of the rain.
儘管外頭下著大雨,我還是出門了。


*同場加映:
【TED】肯尼羅賓森 (Ken Robinson): 如何逃出教育的死亡谷 (How to escape education's death valley | Sir Ken Robinson)


4withdraw 2:30
根據上下文的句意,withdraw 這個單字可以有幾種不同的解釋方式。影片裡的意思為「撤離、退出」。動詞變化 (過去式) 為 withdrew。
She has already made up her mind to withdraw from the competition.
她已經下定決心退出那場比賽。
 
The proposal was withdrawn .
這份提案被撤銷了。
 
此外,withdraw 也有「提、取」的意思,常用於「銀行帳戶的提款」
I would like to withdaw some money after school.
放學後我想去領錢。
 
然而,當 withdraw 後面是接  into 的時候,意思為「脫離 (社會),不與人來往」
Jack is beginning to withdraw into himself.
傑克開始變得不愛與人來往。


5brag 4:23
意思是「吹噓、誇耀」,若後面接受詞,則需要加上 about ,但如過要加上說話者吹噓的內容,後面接子句時,則在動詞後面加 that 。動詞變化 (過去式) 請記得重複字尾 g 變成 bragged 。
Frank often brags about how well he plays basketball.
法蘭克常向別人吹牛自己有多會打籃球。

He bragged that his son was the best student in Dr. Murphy's class.
他吹噓自己的兒子是墨菲教授班上最優秀的學生。


*同場加映:
【職場的進擊】辭職的藝術,如何優雅地離開? How to resign gracefully?


看完這部影片,你們是不是和小 V 一樣瞬間搞懂什麼是 TPP 及 NAFTA 呢?

文/ Charlotte Chou

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