Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • How will we be remembered in 200 years?

    譯者: kane tan 審譯者: Zhu Jie

  • I happen to live in a little town, Princeton, in New Jersey,

    200 年後,人們對我們的印象會是什麼?

  • which every year celebrates the great event in Princeton history:

    我碰巧住在紐澤西州,普林斯頓這個小鎮上,

  • the Battle of Princeton, which was, in fact, a very important battle.

    每年都會慶祝曾經發生在普林斯頓的重大事件:

  • It was the first battle that George Washington won, in fact,

    普林斯頓戰役,是非常重要的一場戰役。

  • and was pretty much of a turning point in the war of independence.

    事實上這是喬治‧華盛頓贏得的第一場戰役,

  • It happened 225 years ago.

    也是獨立戰爭的重要轉捩點。

  • It was actually a terrible disaster for Princeton.

    它發生於225年前。

  • The town was burned down; it was in the middle of winter,

    對於普林斯頓而言是一場大災難。

  • and it was a very, very severe winter.

    這個鎮整個被燒掉了;當時正值冬季中期,

  • And about a quarter of all the people in Princeton died that winter

    那是一個非常非常嚴峻的冬天。

  • from hunger and cold, but nobody remembers that.

    普林斯頓約1/4的人們因為飢餓與寒冷而在這個冬天裡死去,

  • What they remember is, of course, the great triumph,

    可是沒有人記得這件事。

  • that the Brits were beaten, and we won, and that the country was born.

    當然,他們記得那個大勝利:

  • And so I agree very emphatically that the pain of childbirth is not remembered.

    當英國打敗了,我們打勝了,於是這個國家誕生了。

  • It's the child that's remembered.

    所以我感到非常生氣,沒有人記得生小孩的痛,

  • And that's what we're going through at this time.

    大家只記得這個小孩。

  • I wanted to just talk for one minute about the future of biotechnology,

    今天我也打算這麼做。

  • because I think I know very little about that -- I'm not a biologist --

    我將只花一分鐘來談生物科技的未來,

  • so everything I know about it can be said in one minute.

    因為我知道的很少 -- 我不是一個生物學家 --

  • (Laughter)

    所以我知道的東西大概一分鐘就講完了。

  • What I'm saying is that we should follow the model

    (笑聲)

  • that has been so successful with the electronic industry,

    我要說的是,我們應該仿效

  • that what really turned computers into a great success, in the world

    電子工業成功的範例:

  • as a whole, is toys. As soon as computers became toys,

    那將電腦變成世界上相當成功的一種玩具。

  • when kids could come home and play with them,

    一旦電腦變成一種玩具,

  • then the industry really took off. And that has to happen with biotech.

    當孩童們可以回家玩電腦時,

  • There's a huge --

    那時工業就真正成功了。這必須搭配生物科技才行。

  • (Laughter)

    有很大的 --

  • (Applause)

    (笑聲)

  • -- there's a huge community of people in the world

    (掌聲)

  • who are practical biologists, who are dog breeders,

    世界上有很大的一群人

  • pigeon breeders, orchid breeders, rose breeders,

    他們是應用生物學家,他們是繁殖狗的人、

  • people who handle biology with their hands,

    繁殖鴿子的人、繁殖蘭花的人、繁殖玫瑰花的人 --

  • and who are dedicated to producing beautiful things, beautiful creatures,

    這些人用雙手去掌握生物學,

  • plants, animals, pets. These people will be empowered with biotech,

    這些人致力於製造美麗的東西,美麗的生物:

  • and that will be an enormous positive step

    植物、動物、寵物。這些人們能夠使用生物科技,

  • to acceptance of biotechnology.

    這將是

  • That will blow away a lot of the opposition.

    正面接受生物科技的一大進展。

  • When people have this technology in their hands,

    這會將大部分的阻礙排除。

  • you have a do-it-yourself biotech kit, grow your own --

    當人們能夠掌握這個技術時,

  • grow your dog, grow your own cat.

    你會有個生物科技DIY工具,讓你自行種植 --

  • (Laughter)

    種出你的狗,種出你的貓。

  • (Applause)

    (笑聲)

  • Just buy the software, you design it. I won't say anymore,

    (掌聲)

  • you can take it on from there. It's going to happen, and

    只要買個軟體,你自己設計。我不再多說了,

  • I think it has to happen before the technology becomes natural,

    從這邊開始你應該就能了解。它將會發生,

  • becomes part of the human condition,

    我想,這將會在科技變成自然的一部分前發生,

  • something that everybody's familiar with and everybody accepts.

    變成人們周遭的一部分,

  • So, let's leave that aside.

    某種大家都很熟悉也能接受的東西。

  • I want to talk about something quite different,

    關於這個我們就說到這吧。

  • which is what I know about, and that is astronomy.

    我想談一些不一樣的,

  • And I'm interested in searching for life in the universe.

    談談我所知道的東西,那就是天文學。

  • And it's open to us to introduce a new way of doing that,

    我對於在宇宙中找尋生命很有興趣。

  • and that's what I'll talk about for 10 minutes,

    對於提出不同的方式來作這件事也是相當開放的,

  • or whatever the time remains.

    我將會花十分鐘左右來談這件事,

  • The important fact is, that most of the real estate

    或者是我們還剩下的所有時間。

  • that's accessible to us -- I'm not talking about the stars,

    很重要的事實是,大部分的土地,

  • I'm talking about the solar system, the stuff that's within reach

    我們所能接觸到的 -- 我不是指所有的星球,

  • for spacecraft and within reach of our earthbound telescopes --

    我指的是太陽系中,藉由太空梭能抵達的地方,

  • most of the real estate is very cold and very far from the Sun.

    以及地面上天文望遠鏡能夠看見的地方。

  • If you look at the solar system, as we know it today,

    大部分的土地是相當寒冷的,距離太陽也相當遙遠。

  • it has a few planets close to the Sun. That's where we live.

    如果你看看我們現在所了解的太陽系,

  • It has a fairly substantial number of asteroids between

    只有少數行星接近太陽,接近我們目前居住的地方。

  • the orbit of the Earth out through -- to the orbit of Jupiter.

    有相當大量的小行星

  • The asteroids are a substantial amount of real estate,

    位於地球軌道與木星軌道之間。

  • but not very large. And it's not very promising for life,

    這些小行星就是大量的土地,

  • since most of it consists of rock and metal, mostly rock.

    但並不是真的很大。因為那並不適合生物居住,

  • It's not only cold, but very dry.

    因為大部分的成份是岩石和金屬,幾乎都是岩石。

  • So the asteroids we don't have much hope for.

    那並不只是寒冷而已,還相當乾燥。

  • There stand some interesting places a little further out:

    所以我們並不對這些小行星抱持太多希望。

  • the moons of Jupiter and Saturn.

    再遠一點的位置有些令人感興趣的行星,

  • Particularly, there's a place called Europa, which is --

    就是木星和土星的月球們。

  • Europa is one of the moons of Jupiter,

    尤其是有個地方叫做Europa,那是 --

  • where we see a very level ice surface,

    Europa 是木星的許多月球之一,

  • which looks as if it's floating on top of an ocean.

    我們發現那兒的地表有一定含量的冰層,

  • So, we believe that on Europa there is, in fact, a deep ocean.

    看起來似乎是浮在海洋上。

  • And that makes it extraordinarily interesting as a place to explore.

    所以我們相信在 Europa 上面有一個深海。

  • Ocean -- probably the most likely place for life to originate,

    這讓它變得相當令人有興趣去探索的地方。

  • just as it originated on the Earth. So we would love to explore Europa,

    海洋 -- 大概是生命最有可能出現的地方,

  • to go down through the ice,

    正如地球上的生命源起一般。所以我們想要去探索Europa,

  • find out who is swimming around in the ocean,

    向下穿越那冰層,

  • whether there are fish or seaweed or sea monsters --

    看看海洋之下有誰在那兒游泳,

  • whatever there may be that's exciting --- or cephalopods.

    看看是否有魚或海藻或是海底怪物 --

  • But that's hard to do. Unfortunately, the ice is thick.

    不論是什麼都很令人興奮 -- 或頭足類生物(烏賊、章魚等)。

  • We don't know just how thick it is, probably miles thick,

    但這是很困難的一件事。不幸的,那冰層相當厚。

  • so it's very expensive and very difficult to go down there --

    我們不知道究竟有多厚,也許會有幾英哩厚,

  • send down your submarine or whatever it is -- and explore.

    所以這花費將會相當昂貴,也相當困難去抵達那下面 --

  • That's something we don't yet know how to do.

    不論是將潛水艇送下去或任何方式 -- 去進行探索。

  • There are plans to do it, but it's hard.

    這是目前我們還不知道該如何進行的一件事。

  • Go out a bit further, you'll find that beyond the orbit of Neptune,

    我們擬了許多計畫來作這件事,但這相當困難。

  • way out, far from the Sun, that's where the real estate really begins.

    再往遠處一點,你會在海王星的軌道後面發現,

  • You'll find millions or trillions or billions of objects which,

    在遠離太陽的地方,有著許多土地的出現。

  • in what we call the Kuiper Belt or the Oort Cloud --

    你可以發現有上百萬或上億甚至上兆的物體,

  • these are clouds of small objects which appear as comets

    在我們稱之為柯伊伯帶(Kuiper belt)以及歐特雲(Oort cloud)的地方 --

  • when they fall close to the Sun. Mostly, they just live out there

    有一大群小型物體,當它們靠近太陽的時候,

  • in the cold of the outer solar system,

    我們稱之為彗星的東西。它們大部分都存在於這邊,

  • but they are biologically very interesting indeed,

    在太陽系外圍這個冰冷的地方,

  • because they consist primarily of ice with other minerals,

    但就生物學得觀點而言,它們相當值得注意,

  • which are just the right ones for developing life.

    因為它們的主要成份是冰以及其他礦物質,

  • So if life could be established out there,

    這些正是生物組成的原料。

  • it would have all the essentials -- chemistry and sunlight --

    所以如果生命能夠在這兒被創造出來,

  • everything that's needed.

    這兒就有生命所需的基本物質:化學物質以及陽光,

  • So, what I'm proposing

    生命所需要的一切。

  • is that there is where we should be looking for life, rather than on Mars,

    所以我的論點是

  • although Mars is, of course, also a very promising and interesting place.

    除了在火星上以外,還有許多我們可以找尋生命的地方,

  • But we can look outside, very cheaply and in a simple fashion.

    雖然火星也是一個相當有希望也很吸引人的地方。

  • And that's what I'm going to talk about.

    但我們可以往外看,那比較低劣的土地,很簡略的樣式。

  • There is a -- imagine that life originated on Europa,

    這就是我所想要講的東西。

  • and it was sitting in the ocean for billions of years.

    我能想像在Europa上孕育出來的生命形體,

  • It's quite likely that it would move out of the ocean onto the surface,

    它已經存在於海洋中幾十億年。

  • just as it did on the Earth.

    它很可能會從海底移動到陸地上來,

  • Staying in the ocean and evolving in the ocean for 2 billion years,

    就像是地球上的演進一般。

  • finally came out onto the land. And then of course it had great --

    在海中演化了廿億年,

  • much greater freedom, and a much greater variety of creatures

    最後終於出現在陸地上。之後有著相當大的 --

  • developed on the land than had ever been possible in the ocean.

    更大的自由度,更多不同種類的生物,

  • And the step from the ocean to the land was not easy, but it happened.

    在陸地上發展出比海中更多種類的生物。

  • Now, if life had originated on Europa in the ocean,

    由海中演化至陸地相當不容易,但它確實發生了。

  • it could also have moved out onto the surface.

    現在,如果在Europa的海中孕育出了生命,

  • There wouldn't have been any air there -- it's a vacuum.

    它也可能會漸漸移動到陸地上來。

  • It is out in the cold, but it still could have come.

    那裡沒有任何空氣,那是真空狀態。

  • You can imagine that the plants growing up like kelp

    那是相當寒冷的地方,但仍然可能會發生。

  • through cracks in the ice, growing on the surface.

    你可以想像植物像是巨大海藻一樣生長著,

  • What would they need in order to grow on the surface?

    穿越冰層的縫隙,生長出地表。

  • They'd need, first of all, to have a thick skin to protect themselves

    它們需要什麼才能夠長出地表來呢?

  • from losing water through the skin.

    首先它們需要有相當厚的皮膚來保護它們,

  • So they would have to have something like a reptilian skin.

    以免皮膚失去水分。

  • But better -- what is more important

    所以它們必須要有類似爬蟲類的皮膚。

  • is that they would have to concentrate sunlight.

    但更重要的是,

  • The sunlight in Jupiter, on the satellites of Jupiter,

    它們必須要有能力聚集陽光。

  • is 25 times fainter than it is here,

    在木星的陽光,在木星的人造衛星上的陽光,

  • since Jupiter is five times as far from the Sun.

    比地球昏暗25倍,

  • So they would have to have -- these creatures, which I call sunflowers,

    因為木星距離太陽比地球遠5倍。

  • which I imagine living on the surface of Europa, would have to have

    所以將有這些生物,我稱之為向日葵,

  • either lenses or mirrors to concentrate sunlight,

    我所想像生存於Europa表面的生物,需要有著

  • so they could keep themselves warm on the surface.

    透鏡或鏡子來聚集陽光,

  • Otherwise, they would be at a temperature of minus 150,

    這樣才能讓它們在地表保持溫暖。

  • which is certainly not favorable for developing life,

    否則它們將會生存於零下150度,

  • at least of the kind we know.

    那絕對不適合生命居住,

  • But if they just simply could grow, like leaves,

    至少對我們所知道的生命來說是如此。

  • little lenses and mirrors to concentrate sunlight,

    但如果它們能夠簡單的長出類似葉子的東西,

  • then they could keep warm on the surface.

    小小的透鏡或鏡子來聚集陽光,

  • They could enjoy all the benefits of the sunlight

    那麼它們就可以在地表保持溫暖,

  • and have roots going down into the ocean;

    它們可以享受陽光的好處,

  • life then could flourish much more.

    然後將根部深入到海洋之中 --

  • So, why not look? Of course, it's not very likely

    生命就可以更加茂盛的存在。

  • that there's life on the surface of Europa.

    所以,何不去看看 -- 當然生命存在於

  • None of these things is likely, but my,

    Europa 表面的機會並不高。

  • my philosophy is, look for what's detectable, not for what's probable.

    那些東西的可能性都不高,但是我,

  • There's a long history in astronomy of unlikely things

    我的邏輯是去找尋能被找到的東西,而不是可能會發生的事情。

  • turning out to be there. And I mean,

    很久以來就有一些在宇宙中本來不可能發生的事情

  • the finest example of that was radio astronomy as a whole.

    結果卻發生了。我是指,

  • This was -- originally, when radio astronomy began,

    最好的例子是無線電天文學。

  • Mr. Jansky, at the Bell labs, detected radio waves coming from the sky.

    無線電天文學剛出現的時候,

  • And the regular astronomers were scornful about this.

    貝爾實驗室的Jansky偵測到天空傳來的無線電波,

  • They said, "It's all right, you can detect radio waves from the Sun,

    而一些專業的天文學家對此事嘲笑不已。

  • but the Sun is the only object in the universe that's close enough

    他們說,沒錯,你可以收到從太陽傳來的無線電波,

  • and bright enough actually to be detectable. You can easily calculate

    但是太陽是整個宇宙中唯一足夠靠近的物體

  • that radio waves from the Sun are fairly faint,

    並且夠光亮才會被偵測到。你可以輕易算出

  • and everything else in the universe is millions of times further away,

    由太陽傳來的無線電波相當微弱,

  • so it certainly will not be detectable.

    而宇宙中其他物體的距離比這個要遠上幾百萬倍,

  • So there's no point in looking."

    所以絕對不可能被偵測到。

  • And that, of course, that set back the progress of radio astronomy

    所以偵測無線電波是毫無意義的。

  • by about 20 years.

    於是,這讓無線電天文學的發展

  • Since there was nothing there, you might as well not look.

    延遲了20年。

  • Well, of course, as soon as anybody did look,

    因為如果那兒沒東西,你就不會想要去找。

  • which was after about 20 years,

    而在有人真的去找尋的時候,

  • when radio astronomy really took off. Because it turned out

    已經過了大概20年的時間了,

  • the universe is absolutely full of all kinds of wonderful things

    當時無線電天文學開始受到重視。因為後來發現到

  • radiating in the radio spectrum, much brighter than the Sun.

    整個宇宙確實充滿著各種不可思議的東西

  • So, the same thing could be true for this kind of life,

    以無線電的波長發送著無線電波,它們甚至比太陽還光亮。

  • which I'm talking about, on cold objects: that it could in fact

    所以同樣的,我所談到的能夠在冰冷的星球上生存的生命

  • be very abundant all over the universe, and it's not been detected

    也可能確實存在的:事實上,

  • just because we haven't taken the trouble to look.

    它可能充斥在宇宙中,而還沒被發現的原因

  • So, the last thing I want to talk about is how to detect it.

    可能只是因為我們不願意突破困難去尋找。

  • There is something called pit lamping.

    所以,最後我想談的是要怎麼去發現它。

  • That's the phrase which I learned from my son George,

    有件事叫做pit lamping。

  • who is there in the audience.

    這個名詞是我從我的兒子喬治身上學來的,

  • You take -- that's a Canadian expression.

    他正坐在聽眾席裡。

  • If you happen to want to hunt animals at night,

    你可以用 -- 這是加拿大人的說法:

  • you take a miner's lamp, which is a pit lamp.

    如果你突然想在晚上去打獵,

  • You strap it onto your forehead, so you can see

    你拿一個礦工的燈,那叫做坑燈(pit lamp)。

  • the reflection in the eyes of the animal. So, if you go out at night,

    你把它戴在額頭上來,這樣你可以看見

  • you shine a flashlight, the animals are bright.

    動物眼睛裡反射出來的光線。所以如果你在晚上出去

  • You see the red glow in their eyes,

    你打開手電筒,動物的位置就會很明顯。

  • which is the reflection of the flashlight.

    你可以看見它們眼中閃爍著紅光,

  • And then, if you're one of these unsporting characters,

    那就是反射手電筒的光。

  • you shoot the animals and take them home.

    如果你剛好是一個不守規則的人,

  • And of course, that spoils the game

    你就可以射殺它們,把它們帶回家。

  • for the other hunters who hunt in the daytime,

    當然,對於大部分只在白天打獵的獵人來說,

  • so in Canada that's illegal. In New Zealand, it's legal,

    這是違反遊戲規則的。

  • because the New Zealand farmers use this as a way of getting rid of rabbits,

    所以在加拿大這是違法的。在紐西蘭卻是合法的,

  • because the rabbits compete with the sheep in New Zealand.

    因為紐西蘭的農夫用這種方法來除去兔子,

  • So, the farmers go out at night

    因為在紐西蘭兔子會騷擾綿羊。

  • with heavily armed jeeps, and shine the headlights,

    所以農夫們晚上出門

  • and anything that doesn't look like a sheep, you shoot.

    開著重武裝的吉普車,開亮頭燈,

  • (Laughter)

    獵殺任何不像綿羊的東西。

  • So I have proposed to apply the same trick

    (笑聲)

  • to looking for life in the universe.

    所以我建議使用相同的手法

  • That if these creatures who are living on cold surfaces --

    用來在宇宙中探索生命。

  • either on Europa, or further out, anywhere where you can live

    也就是說,生活在冰冷地表的生物 --

  • on a cold surface -- those creatures must be provided with reflectors.

    不論是 Europa 或更遙遠的地方,任何可能生存於

  • In order to concentrate sunlight, they have to have lenses and mirrors --

    冰冷地表 -- 那些生物一定會帶有反射物體。

  • in order to keep themselves warm.

    為了要集中陽光,它們必須要有透鏡和鏡子

  • And then, when you shine sunlight at them,

    才能夠保持自身溫暖。

  • the sunlight will be reflected back,

    於是當你將陽光照在它們身上時,

  • just as it is in the eyes of an animal.

    陽光會被反射回來

  • So these creatures will be bright against the cold surroundings.

    正如動物眼中反射的光線一般。

  • And the further out you go in this, away from the Sun,

    所以這些生物相對於冰冷的環境而言會變得很光亮。

  • the more powerful this reflection will be. So actually,

    對於更遠的地方,那些遠離太陽的地方。

  • this method of hunting for life gets stronger and stronger

    反射能力會更強。所以事實上,

  • as you go further away,

    這種獵殺動物的方法,

  • because the optical reflectors have to be more powerful so the reflected light

    其效果在越遠的地方越有效,

  • shines out even more in contrast against the dark background.

    因為光學反射器必須更加強力

  • So as you go further away from the Sun,

    才能反射對比更高的光線來對抗黑暗的環境。

  • this becomes more and more powerful.

    所以當你到更遠於太陽的地方,

  • So, in fact, you can look for these creatures with telescopes from the Earth.

    這將會變得更加的強力。

  • Why aren't we doing it? Simply because nobody thought of it yet.

    所以,事實上,你可以在地球上利用天文望遠鏡來探索這些生物。

  • But I hope that we shall look, and with any --

    為什麼我們不做呢?很簡單,因為沒人想到這一點。

  • we probably won't find anything,

    但我希望我們會去尋找,抱持著 --

  • none of these speculations may have any basis in fact.

    可能什麼都找不到的心理準備,

  • But still, it's a good chance. And of course, if it happens,

    事實上這些推論都沒有任何理論基礎 --

  • it will transform our view of life altogether.

    但是,這仍然是一個很好的機會。當然,如果它真的發生了,

  • Because it means that -- the way life can live out there,

    這將會讓我們對生命的觀點改變。

  • it has enormous advantages as compared with living on a planet.

    因為這表示生命可以用那種方式存在著,

  • It's extremely hard to move from one planet to another.

    對比於活在星球上而言,這有著相當大的優勢。

  • We're having great difficulties at the moment

    想從一個星球搬到另一個星球是非常困難的事情。

  • and any creatures that live on a planet are pretty well stuck.

    對現在的我們而言是相當難的,

  • Especially if you breathe air,

    對於活在星球上的生物也是如此。

  • it's very hard to get from planet A to planet B,

    尤其是如果你需要呼吸空氣 --

  • because there's no air in between. But if you breathe air --

    從星球A要到星球B很困難的原因之一

  • (Laughter)

    因為如果你需要呼吸空氣,這中間是沒有空氣的 --

  • -- you're dead --

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    -- 你就死定了 --

  • -- as soon as you're off the planet, unless you have a spaceship.

    (笑聲)

  • But if you live in a vacuum, if you live on the surface

    -- 只要你離開了這個星球的話,除非你有一艘太空船。

  • of one of these objects, say, in the Kuiper Belt,

    但是如果你能活在真空中,如果你活在那些